Climate-informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou.

Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT's Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project that boreal caribou population growth rates will change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk.

Generalisability of the individual placement and support model of supported employment: results of a Canadian randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Studies conducted in the USA have found the individual placement and support model of supported employment to be more effective than traditional vocational rehabilitation at helping people with severe mental illness to find and maintain competitive employment. AIMS: To determine the effectiveness of the individual placement and support (supported employment) model in a Canadian setting. METHOD: A total of 150 adults with severe mental illness, who were not currently employed and who desired competitive employment, were randomly assigned to receive either supported employment (n = 75) or traditional vocational services (n = 75). RESULTS: Over the 12 months of followup, 47% of clients in the supported employment group obtained at least some competitive employment, v. 18% of the control group (P < 0.001). They averaged 126 h of competitive work, v. 72 in the control group (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Supported employment proved more effective than traditional vocational services in a setting significantly different from settings in the USA, and may therefore be generalised to settings in other countries.