Bat pollinators: a decade of monitoring reveals declining visitation rates for some species in Thailand.

Bats are important pollinators, but they are difficult to study since they are volant and nocturnal. Thus, long-term studies of nectarivorous bats are scarce, despite their potential to help assess trends in bat populations and their pollination services. We used capture rates of nectarivorous bats at chiropterophilous flowers in order to examine temporal trends in bat visitation in an area that is undergoing extensive land use change. We mist-netted at five bat-pollinated plant taxa (Durio zibethinus, Musa acuminata, Oroxylum indicum, Parkia speciosa, and Sonneratia spp.) in southern Thailand over six years between 2011 and 2021. We found that the most common bat species, Eonycteris spelaea, was the main visitor at all five plant taxa and had consistent visitation rates across all study years. In contrast, two other important pollinators, Macroglossus minimus and M. sobrinus, showed 80% declines in the number of individuals netted at mangrove apple (Sonneratia spp.) and banana (Musa acuminata) flowers, respectively. These findings suggest that E. spelaea (a large, cave-roosting species with a broad diet) is more tolerant of anthropogenic change than are Macroglossus bats (small, foliage-roosting species with specialized diets), which may in turn affect the reproductive success of plants pollinated by these species. Our study demonstrates how decade-long monitoring can reveal species-specific temporal patterns in pollinator visitation, emphasizing the need for tailored conservation plans. While the conservation status of most nectarivorous bats in the area is Least Concern, our results indicate that population studies in Southeast Asia are urgently needed for updated bat species conservation assessments.

Genetic diversity and population structure among native, naturalized, and invasive populations of the common yellow monkeyflower, Mimulus guttatus (Phrymaceae).

An ongoing controversy in invasion biology is the prevalence of colonizing plant populations that are able to establish and spread, while maintaining limited amounts of genetic variation. Invasive populations can be established through several routes including from a single source or from multiple introductions. The aim of this study was to examine genetic diversity in populations of Mimulus guttatus in the United Kingdom, where the species is considered invasive, and compare this diversity to that in native populations on the west coast of North America. Additionally, we looked at diversity in non-native populations that have not yet become invasive (naturalized populations) in eastern North America. We investigated population structure among populations in these three regions and attempted to uncover the sources for populations that have established in the naturalized and invasive regions. We found that genetic diversity was, on average, relatively high in populations from the invasive UK region and comparable to native populations. Contrastingly, two naturalized M. guttatus populations were low in both genetic and genotypic diversity, indicating a history of asexual reproduction and self-fertilization. A third naturalized population was found to be a polyploid Mimulus hybrid of unknown origin. Our results demonstrate that M. guttatus has likely achieved colonization success outside of its native western North America distribution by a variety of establishment pathways, including those with genetic and demographic benefits resulting from multiple introductions in the UK, reproductive assurance through selfing, and asexual reproduction in eastern North America, and possible polyploidization in one Canadian population.

Pollination-precision hypothesis: support from native honey bees and nectar bats.

The evolution of floral traits is often considered to reflect selection for increased pollination efficiency. Known as the pollination-precision hypothesis, increased pollination efficiency is achieved by enhancing pollen deposition on precise areas of the pollinator. Most research to date addressing this hypothesis has examined plant species that are a priori predicted to place pollen precisely, but we still lack comparisons with species predicted to have low pollination efficiency. We studied 39 plant species with diverse floral morphologies and measured the precision of pollen placement on two pollinator groups: honey bees (genus Apis) and nectar bats (family Pteropodidae). Pollen was collected from four locations of each pollinator's body (bees: dorsal thorax, ventral thorax, dorsal abdomen, ventral abdomen; bats: crown, face, chest, wing) to calculate pollen placement precision using Pielou's evenness index. We also quantified variation in floral design by scoring floral symmetry, corolla fusion, floral orientation and stamen number. We confirm the importance of four floral character states (bilateral symmetry, fused corollas, horizontal orientation and reduced stamen number) in promoting precise pollen placement on diverse pollinators. Our findings provide phylogenetically corrected, empirical support that the evolution of the four floral characters reflect selection for enhanced precision of pollen placed on pollinators.

Variable tropical moisture and food availability underlie mixed winter space-use strategies in a migratory songbird.

Identifying environmental correlates driving space-use strategies can be critical for predicting population dynamics; however, such information can be difficult to attain for small mobile species such as migratory songbirds. We combined radio-telemetry and high-resolution GPS tracking to examine space-use strategies under different moisture gradients for wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). We explored the role moisture plays in driving food abundance and, in turn, space-use strategies at a wintering site in Belize across 3 years. Individuals occupying drier habitats experienced lower food abundance and poorer body condition. Using data from our radio-tracked study population and GPS tracking from across five breeding populations, we detected low rates of overwinter site persistence across the wood thrush wintering range. Contrary to expectations, individuals in wetter habitats were more likely to engage in permanent mid-winter relocations, up to 148 km. We suggest facultative movements are instead a condition-dependent strategy that enables wintering wood thrush to locate alternative habitat as food availability declines throughout the dry season. Increased aridity is predicted across the wintering range of wood thrush, and future research should delve deeper into understanding how moisture impacts within and between season space-use dynamics and its ultimate impact on the population dynamics of this declining species.

Variable and sexually conflicting selection on Silene stellata floral traits by a putative moth pollinator selective agent.

Conflicting selection is an important evolutionary mechanism because it impedes directional evolution and helps to maintain phenotypic variation. It can arise when mutualistic and antagonistic selective agents exert opposing selection on the same trait and when distinct phenotypic optima are favored by different fitness components. In this study, we test for conflicting selection through different sexual functions of the hermaphroditic plant, Silene stellata during its early and late flowering season. We find selection is consistently stronger during the early flowering season, which aligns with the activity peak of the pollinating seed predator Hadena ectypa. Importantly, we observe sex-specific selection on petal dimensions to have opposite signs. We propose that the observed sexually conflicting selection on petal design results from the negative selection through female function for the avoidance of oviposition and the subsequent fruit predation by H. ectypa larvae and the positive selection through male function for pollen export by H. ectypa adults. The Silene-Hadena interaction has previously been considered to be largely parasitic. Our findings suggest a trade-off mechanism that could thwart the evolution of an "escape route" from the nocturnal pollination syndrome by Silene spp. and contribute to the long-term maintenance of the Silene-Hadena system.

Conservation and Genetics.

Humans are responsible for a cataclysm of species extinction that will change the world as we see it, and will adversely affect human health and wellbeing. We need to understand at individual and societal levels why species conservation is important. Accepting the premise that species have value, we need to next consider the mechanisms underlying species extinction and what we can do to reverse the process. One of the last stages of species extinction is the reduction of a species to a few populations of relatively few individuals, a scenario that leads invariably to inbreeding and its adverse consequences, inbreeding depression. Inbreeding depression can be so severe that populations become at risk of extinction not only because of the expression of harmful recessive alleles (alleles having no phenotypic effect when in the heterozygous condition, e.g., Aa, where a is the recessive allele), but also because of their inability to respond genetically with sufficient speed to adapt to changing environmental conditions. However, new conservation approaches based on foundational quantitative and population genetic theory advocate for active genetic management of fragmented populations by facilitating gene movements between populations, i.e., admixture, or genetic rescue. Why species conservation is critical, the genetic consequences of small population size that often lead to extinction, and possible solutions to the problem of small population size are discussed and presented.

Characterization of the mating system of a native perennial tetraploid herb, Silene stellata.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Nursery pollination systems can range from obligate to facultative. In a system where generalists provide substantial pollination service, an important question is whether the cost of seed predation outweighs the benefit provided by the nursery pollinator to cause the plant to evolve toward more generalized pollination. Using a facultative system native to North America, we tested whether nursery pollinator vs. strictly mutualistic generalists affect mating-system parameters of the host plant and explored the implications for long-term coevolution. METHODS: We used paternity analyses with 11 microsatellite markers to characterize the mating system of Silene stellata when pollination service is primarily through the nursery pollinator Hadena ectypa and generalist moths. KEY RESULTS: Our experimental population of S. stellata was predominantly outcrossing (average outcrossing rate t = 0.83), and mating-system parameters were similar between pollinator groups. We detected significant correlations in both selfing and outcrossed paternity at the fruit and maternal family level, corresponding to limited pollen dispersal (mean = 3.9 m). Among individuals, variation in anther-stigma separation was positively associated with outcrossing rate, which suggests the importance of herkogamy in preventing selfing. CONCLUSIONS: Correlated paternity suggests that seeds from the same fruit and/or plants are sired by a limited number of pollen donors, resulting from low pollen dispersal and potential male-male competition. The similar mating-system parameters of the two pollinator groups suggest that selection for higher outcrossing in S. stellata is likely to be through floral design rather than through increased pollinator specialization with H. ectypa.

Comparison of population genetic structures of the plant Silene stellata and its obligate pollinating seed predator moth Hadena ectypa.

Background and Aims: Population genetic structures and patterns of gene flow of interacting species provide important insights into the spatial scale of their interactions and the potential for local co-adaptation. We analysed the genetic structures of the plant Silene stellata and the nocturnal moth Hadena ectypa. Hadena ectypa acts as one of the important pollinators of S. stellata as well as being an obligate seed parasite on the plant. Although H. ectypa provides a substantial pollination service to S. stellata, this system is largely considered parasitic due to the severe seed predation by the Hadena larvae. Previous research on this system has found variable interaction outcomes across space, indicating the potential for a geographical selection mosaic. Methods: Using 11 microsatellite markers for S. stellata and nine markers for H. ectypa, we analysed the population genetic structure and the patterns and intensity of gene flow within and among three local populations in the Appalachians. Key Results: We found no spatial genetic structure in the moth populations, while significant differentiation was detected among the local plant populations. Additionally, we observed that gene flow rates among H. ectypa populations were more uniform and that the mean gene flow rate in H. ectypa was twice as large as that in S. stellata. Conclusions: Our results suggest that although the moths move frequently among populations, long-distance pollen carryover only happens occasionally. The difference in gene flow rates between S. stellata and H. ectypa could prevent strict local co-adaptation. Furthermore, higher gene flow rates in H. ectypa could also increase resistance of the local S. stellata populations to the parasitic effect of H. ectypa and therefore help to stabilize the Silene-Hadena interaction dynamics.

Field evidence of strong differential pollen placement by Old World bat-pollinated plants.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Sympatric plant species that share pollinators potentially compete for pollination and risk interspecific pollen transfer, but this competition can be minimized when plant species place pollen on different areas of the pollinator's body. Multiple studies have demonstrated strong differential pollen placement by sympatric plant species under laboratory conditions; however, field evidence collected in natural settings is less common. Furthermore, it is unknown whether precise pollen placement on the pollinator's body remains constant throughout the foraging period, or if such patterns become diffused over time (e.g. due to grooming). To test the prevalence of differential pollen placement in the wild, we examined a community of five night-blooming plant species in southern Thailand that share common bat pollinators. METHODS: We mist-netted wild foraging nectar bats and collected pollen samples from four body parts: the crown of the head, face, chest and ventral side of one wing. We also noted the time of pollen collection to assess how pollinator pollen loads change throughout the foraging period. KEY RESULTS: Our findings revealed that most of our plant study species placed pollen on precise areas of the bat, consistent with experimental work, and that patterns of differential pollen placement remained constant throughout the night. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates how diverse floral morphologies effectively limit interspecific pollen transfer among Old World bat-pollinated plants under natural conditions. Additionally, interspecific pollen transfer is probably minimal throughout the entire foraging period, since patterns of pollen on the bats' bodies were consistent over time.

Winter habitat quality but not long-distance dispersal influences apparent reproductive success in a migratory bird.

Long-distance breeding and natal dispersal play central roles in many ecological and evolutionary processes, including gene flow, population dynamics, range expansion, and individual responses to fluctuating biotic and abiotic conditions. However, the relative contribution of long-distance dispersal to these processes depends on the ability of dispersing individuals to successfully reproduce in their new environment. Unfortunately, due to the difficulties associated with tracking dispersal in the field, relatively little is known about its reproductive consequences. Furthermore, because reproductive success is influenced by a variety of processes, disentangling the influence of each of these processes is critical to understanding the direct consequences of dispersal. In this study, we used stable hydrogen and carbon isotopes to estimate long-distance dispersal and winter territory quality in a migratory bird, the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). We then applied Aster life-history models to quantify the strength of influence of these factors on apparent reproductive success. We found no evidence that male or female reproductive success was lower for long-distance dispersers relative to non-dispersing individuals. In contrast, carry-over effects from the winter season did influence male, but not female, reproductive success. Use of Aster models further revealed that for adult males, winter territory quality influenced the number of offspring produced whereas for yearling males, high-quality winter territories were associated with higher mating and nesting success. These results suggest that although long-distance natal and breeding dispersal carry no immediate reproductive cost for American Redstarts, reproductive success in this species may ultimately be limited by the quality of winter habitat.

Development of highly variable microsatellite markers for the tetraploid Silene stellata (Caryophyllaceae).

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: We designed and tested microsatellite markers for the North American native species Silene stellata (Caryophyllaceae) to investigate its population genetic structure and identify selection on floral design through male reproductive success. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 153 candidate microsatellite loci were isolated based on next-generation sequencing. We identified 18 polymorphic microsatellite loci in three populations of S. stellata, with di- or trinucleotide repeats. Genotyping results showed the number of alleles per locus ranged from six to 45 and expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.511 to 0.951. Five of these loci were successfully amplified in S. virginica and S. caroliniana and were also polymorphic. CONCLUSIONS: The microsatellite markers reported here provide a valuable tool for paternity analysis in S. stellata. They will also be useful for investigating the population genetic structures of S. stellata and related species.

Differential pollen placement on an Old World nectar bat increases pollination efficiency.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Plant species that share pollinators are potentially subject to non-adaptive interspecific pollen transfer, resulting in reduced reproductive success. Mechanisms that increase pollination efficiency between conspecific individuals are therefore highly beneficial. Many nocturnally flowering plant species in Thailand are pollinated by the nectar bat Eonycteris spelaea (Pteropodidae). This study tested the hypothesis that plant species within a community reduce interspecific pollen movement by placing pollen on different areas of the bat's body. METHODS: Using flight cage trials, pollen transfer by E. spelaea was compared between conspecific versus heterospecific flowers across four bat-pollinated plant genera. Pollen from four locations on the bat's body was also quantified to determine if pollen placement varies by plant species. KEY RESULTS: It was found that E. spelaea transfers significantly more pollen between conspecific than heterospecific flowers, and that diverse floral designs produce significantly different patterns of pollen deposition on E. spelaea. CONCLUSIONS: In the Old World tropics, differential pollen placement is a mechanism that reduces competition among bat-pollinated plant species sharing a common pollinator.

Habitat features and long-distance dispersal modify the use of social information by a long-distance migratory bird.

The processes by which individuals select breeding sites have important consequences for individual tness as well as population- and community-dynamics. Although there is increasing evidence that many animal species use information acquired from conspecics to assess the suitability of potential breeding sites, little is known about how the use of this social information is modified by biotic and abiotic conditions. We used an automated playback experiment to simulate two types of social information, post-breeding public information and pre-breeding location cues, to determine the relative importance of these cues for breeding site selection by a migratory songbird, the American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). In addition, we used stable hydrogen isotopes to determine the dispersal status of individuals that responded to our experimental treatments and quantify whether long-distance dispersers use different social cues to select breeding sites compared to philopatric individuals. We found that points that received pre-breeding location cue treatments were signi cantly more likely to be settled by redstarts than control points that received no playback. However, we found no evidence the redstarts used post-breeding public information gathered during one season to select breeding sites the following year. Breeding site habitat structure was also a strong predictor of settlement probability, indicating that redstarts modi ed the use of social information based on habitat cues. Furthermore, stable hydrogen isotope signatures from individuals that responded to location cue treatments suggest that long-distance dispersers may rely more heavily on these cues than local recruits. Collectively, these results indicate that redstarts use multiple sources of information to select breeding sites, which could buffer individuals from selecting suboptimal sites when they breed in unfamiliar locations or when habitat quality becomes decoupled from social cues.

Quantifying hummingbird preference for floral trait combinations: The role of selection on trait interactions in the evolution of pollination syndromes.

Darwin recognized the flower's importance for the study of adaptation and emphasized that the flower's functionality reflects the coordinated action of multiple traits. Here we use a multitrait manipulative approach to quantify the potential role of selection acting on floral trait combinations underlying the divergence and maintenance of three related North American species of Silene (Caryophyllaceae). We artificially generated 48 plant phenotypes corresponding to all combinations of key attractive traits differing among the three Silene species (color, height, inflorescence architecture, flower orientation, and corolla-tube width). We quantified main and interaction effects of trait manipulation on hummingbird visitation preference using experimental arrays. The main effects of floral display height and floral orientation strongly influenced hummingbird visitation, with hummingbirds preferring flowers held high above the ground and vertically to the sky. Hummingbirds also prefer traits in a nonadditive manner as multiple two-way and higher order interaction effects were important predictors of hummingbird visitation. Contemporary trait combinations found in hummingbird pollinated S. virginica are mostly preferred. Our study demonstrates the likelihood of pollination syndromes evolving due to selection on trait combinations and highlights the importance of trait interactions in understanding the evolution of complex adaptations.

The importance of analyzing neighbor competitive response in the target-neighbor experimental design.

The role of competition in community structure and species interactions is universal. However, how one quantifies the outcome of competitive interactions is frequently debated. Here, we review the strengths and weaknesses of the target-neighbor design, a type of additive design where one of the competing species is reduced to a single individual and where controls and analyses are used for the target, but not for the neighbors. We conducted a literature review to determine how the target-neighbor design has been typically used and analyzed. We found that historically, targets were often smaller than neighbors and introduced after neighbor establishment; thus, targets would have little effect on neighbors. However, as co-establishment of targets and neighbors of similar size is now common, the target is more likely to affect the neighbors than in its earlier usage. This can be problematic, because if targets have a significant effect on neighbor performance, bias is introduced into the assessment of the target results. As target treatment controls are necessary to determine the absolute effect of neighbors on target growth, we advocate that analysis of the neighbor competitive response serves as a necessary control for unexpected target x neighbor interactions.

Interactions between a pollinating seed predator and its host plant: the role of environmental context within a population.

Plant-insect interactions often are important for plant reproduction, but the outcome of these interactions may vary with environmental context. Pollinating seed predators have positive and negative effects on host plant reproduction, and the interaction outcome is predicted to vary with density or abundance of the partners. We studied the interaction between Silene stellata, an herbaceous perennial, and Hadena ectypa, its specialized pollinating seed predator. Silene stellata is only facultatively dependent upon H. ectypa for pollination because other nocturnal moth co-pollinators are equally effective at pollen transfer. We hypothesized that for plants without conspecific neighbors, H. ectypa would have higher visitation rates compared to co-pollinators, and the plants would experience lower levels of H. ectypa pollen deposition. We predicted similar oviposition throughout the study site but greater H. ectypa predation in the area without conspecific neighbors compared to plants embedded in a naturally high density area. We found that H. ectypa had consistently higher visitation than moth co-pollinators in all host plant contexts. However, H. ectypa pollinator importance declined in areas with low conspecific density because of reduced pollen deposition, resulting in lower seed set. Conversely, oviposition was similar across the study site independent of host plant density. Greater likelihood of very high fruit predation combined with lower pollination by H. ectypa resulted in reduced S. stellata female reproductive success in areas with low conspecific density. Our results demonstrate local context dependency of the outcomes of pollinating seed predator interactions with conspecific host plant density within a population.

Choices and consequences of oviposition by a pollinating seed predator, Hadena ectypa (Noctuidae), on its host plant, Silene stellata (Caryophyllaceae).

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Pollinating seed predators are models for the study of mutualisms. These insects have dual effects on host-plant fitness, through pollination as adults and flower and fruit predation as larvae. A rarely examined question is whether pollinating seed-predator oviposition choices are influenced by plant floral and size traits and the potential consequences of oviposition for host-plant reproduction. • METHODS: We quantified oviposition by a pollinating seed predator, Hadena ectypa, on its host, Silene stellata, to determine if oviposition was associated with specific plant traits and whether oviposition was significantly correlated with fruit initiation or flower and fruit predation over three years. We also quantified whether stigmatic pollen loads of flowers visited by Hadena that both fed on nectar and oviposited were greater than when Hadena only fed on nectar. • KEY RESULTS: Hadena had significant preference for plants having flowers with long corolla tubes in all three years. Moth oviposition was correlated with other traits only in some years. Oviposition did not increase stigmatic pollen loads. We observed significant positive relationships between both oviposition and fruit initiation and oviposition and flower/fruit predation. • CONCLUSIONS: Hadena ectypa oviposition choices were based consistently on floral tube length differences among individuals, and the consequences of oviposition include both fruit initiation (due to pollination while feeding on nectar prior to oviposition) and larval flower/fruit predation. The positive association between oviposition and fruit initiation may explain the long-term maintenance of facultative pollinating seed-predator interactions.

Variable nursery pollinator importance and its effect on plant reproductive success.

Nursery pollination, in which insects use as hosts the very plants they pollinate, ranges from obligate mutualism to parasitism. In the non-obligate interaction between Greya moths and the host Lithophragma sp., the relative density of nursery pollinators and copollinators, which do not use plant tissues for larval development, is a key determinant of the interaction's outcome. Silene (Caryophyllaceae) nursery pollination by Hadena moths (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), studied primarily in Europe, is considered antagonistic because copollinators comprise a substantial proportion of the pollinator community. However, there are few studies that ascertain the direction of the Silene-Hadena interaction by taking into account both pollinator service and seed predation. Here, we report a novel comprehensive evaluation of the direction of the interaction between North American Hadena ectypa on Silene stellata, by comparing the relative contributions of nursery and copollinators to S. stellata pollination and relate this to variation in fruit predation and reproductive success of S. stellata across multiple sites and years. Hadena ectypa pollinator importance (pollen deposited/visit/h) varied between years, resulting from variable visitation rate. Copollinator importance was higher than H. ectypa in 1 year and equivalent in another. In two of three sites, lowered H. ectypa activity was not correlated with a significant decrease in plant reproductive success, indicating a negative interaction. Although pollinator service by H. ectypa is substantial in this system, copollinators' service is at least as great, and when the cost of fruit predation is factored in, the net effect of the interaction is parasitism of host plants.

Experimental floral and inflorescence trait manipulations affect pollinator preference and function in a hummingbird-pollinated plant.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Controversy is ongoing regarding the importance of pollinator-mediated selection as a source of observed patterns of floral diversity. Although increasing evidence exists of pollinator-mediated selection acting on female reproductive success, there is still limited understanding of pollinator-mediated selection on floral traits via male reproductive success. Here we quantify potential selection by the ruby-throated hummingbird, Archilochus colubris, on four floral traits of hermaphroditic Silene exerted through male floral function. METHODS: In single trait manipulative experiments we quantified hummingbird visitation preference and/or fluorescent dye (a pollen analog) donation as a function of number of flowers displayed (inflorescence size), height of the floral display (inflorescence height), floral color, and corolla tube length. KEY RESULTS: Hummingbirds preferred to visit larger floral displays and floral displays at greater height, likely representing a general pollinator preference for larger, more visible signals and/or greater rewards. In addition, hummingbirds preferred to visit red flowers, and male function was greater in flowers manipulated to have longer corolla tubes. CONCLUSIONS: Selection pressures exerted by hummingbirds on S. virginica floral and inflorescence design through male reproductive success are consistent with the contemporary expression of floral traits of S. virginica relative to related Silene species with different pollinators, and they are consistent with the hummingbird syndrome of traits expressed by S. virginica.

Predicting the probability of outbreeding depression.

Fragmentation of animal and plant populations typically leads to genetic erosion and increased probability of extirpation. Although these effects can usually be reversed by re-establishing gene flow between population fragments, managers sometimes fail to do so due to fears of outbreeding depression (OD). Rapid development of OD is due primarily to adaptive differentiation from selection or fixation of chromosomal variants. Fixed chromosomal variants can be detected empirically. We used an extended form of the breeders' equation to predict the probability of OD due to adaptive differentiation between recently isolated population fragments as a function of intensity of selection, genetic diversity, effective population sizes, and generations of isolation. Empirical data indicated that populations in similar environments had not developed OD even after thousands of generations of isolation. To predict the probability of OD, we developed a decision tree that was based on the four variables from the breeders' equation, taxonomic status, and gene flow within the last 500 years. The predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations is elevated when the populations have at least one of the following characteristics: are distinct species, have fixed chromosomal differences, exchanged no genes in the last 500 years, or inhabit different environments. Conversely, the predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations of the same species is low for populations with the same karyotype, isolated for <500 years, and that occupy similar environments. In the former case, we recommend crossing be avoided or tried on a limited, experimental basis. In the latter case, crossing can be carried out with low probability of OD. We used crosses with known results to test the decision tree and found that it correctly identified cases where OD occurred. Current concerns about OD in recently fragmented populations are almost certainly excessive.