Multi-proxy evidence for sea level fall at the onset of the Eocene-Oligocene transition.

Continental-scale expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) is one of the largest non-linear events in Earth's climate history. Declining atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and orbital variability triggered glacial expansion and strong feedbacks in the climate system. Prominent among these feedbacks was the repartitioning of biogeochemical cycles between the continental shelves and the deep ocean with falling sea level. Here we present multiple proxies from a shallow shelf location that identify a marked regression and an elevated flux of continental-derived organic matter at the earliest stage of the EOT, a time of deep ocean carbonate dissolution and the extinction of oligotrophic phytoplankton groups. We link these observations using an Earth System model, whereby this first regression delivers a pulse of organic carbon to the oceans that could drive the observed patterns of deep ocean dissolution and acts as a transient negative feedback to climate cooling.

Large Igneous Province thermogenic greenhouse gas flux could have initiated Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum climate change.

Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) are associated with the largest climate perturbations in Earth's history. The North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP) and Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) constitute an exemplar of this association. As yet we have no means to reconstruct the pacing of LIP greenhouse gas emissions for comparison with climate records at millennial resolution. Here, we calculate carbon-based greenhouse gas fluxes associated with the NAIP at sub-millennial resolution by linking measurements of the mantle convection process that generated NAIP magma with observations of the individual geological structures that controlled gas emissions in a Monte Carlo framework. These simulations predict peak emissions flux of 0.2-0.5 PgC yr-1 and show that the NAIP could have initiated PETM climate change. This is the first predictive model of carbon emissions flux from any proposed PETM carbon source that is directly constrained by observations of the geological structures that controlled the emissions.

Environmental Predictors of Diversity in Recent Planktonic Foraminifera as Recorded in Marine Sediments.

Global diversity patterns are thought to result from a combination of environmental and historical factors. This study tests the set of ecological and evolutionary hypotheses proposed to explain the global variation in present-day coretop diversity in the macroperforate planktonic foraminifera, a clade with an exceptional fossil record. Within this group, marine surface sediment assemblages are thought to represent an accurate, although centennial to millennial time-averaged, representation of recent diversity patterns. Environmental variables chosen to capture ocean temperature, structure, productivity and seasonality were used to model a range of diversity measures across the world's oceans. Spatial autoregressive models showed that the same broad suite of environmental variables were important in shaping each of the four largely independent diversity measures (rarefied species richness, Simpson's evenness, functional richness and mean evolutionary age). Sea-surface temperature explains the largest portion of diversity in all four diversity measures, but not in the way predicted by the metabolic theory of ecology. Vertical structure could be linked to increased diversity through the strength of stratification, but not through the depth of the mixed layer. There is limited evidence that seasonal turnover explains diversity patterns. There is evidence for functional redundancy in the low-latitude sites. The evolutionary mechanism of deep-time stability finds mixed support whilst there is relatively little evidence for an out-of-the-tropics model. These results suggest the diversity patterns of planktonic foraminifera cannot be explained by any one environmental variable or proposed mechanism, but instead reflect multiple processes acting in concert.

The impact of Cenozoic cooling on assemblage diversity in planktonic foraminifera.

The Cenozoic planktonic foraminifera (PF) (calcareous zooplankton) have arguably the most detailed fossil record of any group. The quality of this record allows models of environmental controls on macroecology, developed for Recent assemblages, to be tested on intervals with profoundly different climatic conditions. These analyses shed light on the role of long-term global cooling in establishing the modern latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG)--one of the most powerful generalizations in biogeography and macroecology. Here, we test the transferability of environment-diversity models developed for modern PF assemblages to the Eocene epoch (approx. 56-34 Ma), a time of pronounced global warmth. Environmental variables from global climate models are combined with Recent environment-diversity models to predict Eocene richness gradients, which are then compared with observed patterns. The results indicate the modern LDG--lower richness towards the poles--developed through the Eocene. Three possible causes are suggested for the mismatch between statistical model predictions and data in the Early Eocene: the environmental estimates are inaccurate, the statistical model misses a relevant variable, or the intercorrelations among facets of diversity--e.g. richness, evenness, functional diversity--have changed over geological time. By the Late Eocene, environment-diversity relationships were much more similar to those found today.

A Cenozoic record of the equatorial Pacific carbonate compensation depth.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate are regulated on geological timescales by the balance between carbon input from volcanic and metamorphic outgassing and its removal by weathering feedbacks; these feedbacks involve the erosion of silicate rocks and organic-carbon-bearing rocks. The integrated effect of these processes is reflected in the calcium carbonate compensation depth, which is the oceanic depth at which calcium carbonate is dissolved. Here we present a carbonate accumulation record that covers the past 53 million years from a depth transect in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The carbonate compensation depth tracks long-term ocean cooling, deepening from 3.0-3.5 kilometres during the early Cenozoic (approximately 55 million years ago) to 4.6 kilometres at present, consistent with an overall Cenozoic increase in weathering. We find large superimposed fluctuations in carbonate compensation depth during the middle and late Eocene. Using Earth system models, we identify changes in weathering and the mode of organic-carbon delivery as two key processes to explain these large-scale Eocene fluctuations of the carbonate compensation depth.

Gas hydrates: past and future geohazard?

Gas hydrates are ice-like deposits containing a mixture of water and gas; the most common gas is methane. Gas hydrates are stable under high pressures and relatively low temperatures and are found underneath the oceans and in permafrost regions. Estimates range from 500 to 10,000 giga tonnes of carbon (best current estimate 1600-2000 GtC) stored in ocean sediments and 400 GtC in Arctic permafrost. Gas hydrates may pose a serious geohazard in the near future owing to the adverse effects of global warming on the stability of gas hydrate deposits both in ocean sediments and in permafrost. It is still unknown whether future ocean warming could lead to significant methane release, as thermal penetration of marine sediments to the clathrate-gas interface could be slow enough to allow a new equilibrium to occur without any gas escaping. Even if methane gas does escape, it is still unclear how much of this could be oxidized in the overlying ocean. Models of the global inventory of hydrates and trapped methane bubbles suggest that a global 3( degrees )C warming could release between 35 and 940 GtC, which could add up to an additional 0.5( degrees )C to global warming. The destabilization of gas hydrate reserves in permafrost areas is more certain as climate models predict that high-latitude regions will be disproportionately affected by global warming with temperature increases of over 12( degrees )C predicted for much of North America and Northern Asia. Our current estimates of gas hydrate storage in the Arctic region are, however, extremely poor and non-existent for Antarctica. The shrinking of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in response to regional warming may also lead to destabilization of gas hydrates. As ice sheets shrink, the weight removed allows the coastal region and adjacent continental slope to rise through isostacy. This removal of hydrostatic pressure could destabilize gas hydrates, leading to massive slope failure, and may increase the risk of tsunamis.