Optimizing infant HIV diagnosis with additional screening at immunization clinics in three sub-Saharan African settings: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Uptake of early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) varies widely across sub-Saharan African settings. We evaluated the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of universal maternal HIV screening at infant immunization visits, with referral to EID and maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. METHODS: Using the CEPAC-Pediatric model, we compared two strategies for infants born in 2017 in Côte d'Ivoire (CI), South Africa (SA), and Zimbabwe: (1) existing EID programmes offering six-week nucleic acid testing (NAT) for infants with known HIV exposure (EID), and (2) EID plus universal maternal HIV screening at six-week infant immunization visits, leading to referral for infant NAT and maternal ART initiation (screen-and-test). Model inputs included published Ivoirian/South African/Zimbabwean data: maternal HIV prevalence (4.8/30.8/16.1%), current uptake of EID (40/95/65%) and six-week immunization attendance (99/74/94%). Referral rates for infant NAT and maternal ART initiation after screen-and-test were 80%. Costs included NAT ($24/infant), maternal screening ($10/mother-infant pair), ART ($5 to 31/month) and HIV care ($15 to 190/month). Model outcomes included mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT) among HIV-exposed infants, and life expectancy (LE) and mean lifetime per-person costs for children with HIV (CWH) and all children born in 2017. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using discounted (3%/year) lifetime costs and LE for all children. We considered two cost-effectiveness thresholds in each country: (1) the per-capita GDP ($1720/6380/2150) per year-of-life saved (YLS), and (2) the CEPAC-generated ICER of offering 2 versus 1 lifetime ART regimens (e.g. offering second-line ART; $520/500/580/YLS). RESULTS: With EID, projected six-week MTCT was 9.3% (CI), 4.2% (SA) and 5.2% (Zimbabwe). Screen-and-test decreased total MTCT by 0.2% to 0.5%, improved LE by 2.0 to 3.5 years for CWH and 0.03 to 0.07 years for all children, and increased discounted costs by $17 to 22/child (all children). The ICER of screen-and-test compared to EID was $1340/YLS (CI), $650/YLS (SA) and $670/YLS (Zimbabwe), below the per-capita GDP but above the ICER of 2 versus 1 lifetime ART regimens in all countries. CONCLUSIONS: Universal maternal HIV screening at immunization visits with referral to EID and maternal ART initiation may reduce MTCT, improve paediatric LE, and be of comparable value to current HIV-related interventions in high maternal HIV prevalence settings like SA and Zimbabwe.

Developing and Validating Metamodels of a Microsimulation Model of Infant HIV Testing and Screening Strategies Used in a Decision Support Tool for Health Policy Makers.

Background. Metamodels can simplify complex health policy models and yield instantaneous results to inform policy decisions. We investigated the predictive validity of linear regression metamodels used to support a real-time decision-making tool that compares infant HIV testing/screening strategies. Methods. We developed linear regression metamodels of the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications Pediatric (CEPAC-P) microsimulation model used to predict life expectancy and lifetime HIV-related costs/person of two infant HIV testing/screening programs in South Africa. Metamodel performance was assessed with cross-validation and Bland-Altman plots, showing between-method differences in predicted outcomes against their means. Predictive validity was determined by the percentage of simulations in which the metamodels accurately predicted the strategy with the greatest net health benefit (NHB) as projected by the CEPAC-P model. We introduced a zone of indifference and investigated the width needed to produce between-method agreement in 95% of the simulations. We also calculated NHB losses from "wrong" decisions by the metamodel. Results. In cross-validation, linear regression metamodels accurately approximated CEPAC-P-projected outcomes. For life expectancy, Bland-Altman plots showed good agreement between CEPAC-P and the metamodel (within 1.1 life-months difference). For costs, 95% of between-method differences were within $65/person. The metamodels predicted the same optimal strategy as the CEPAC-P model in 87.7% of simulations, increasing to 95% with a zone of indifference of 0.24 life-months ( ∼ 7 days). The losses in health benefits due to "wrong" choices by the metamodel were modest (range: 0.0002-1.1 life-months). Conclusions. For this policy question, linear regression metamodels offered sufficient predictive validity for the optimal testing strategy as compared with the CEPAC-P model. Metamodels can simulate different scenarios in real time, based on sets of input parameters that can be depicted in a widely accessible decision-support tool.

Clinical effect and cost-effectiveness of incorporation of point-of-care assays into early infant HIV diagnosis programmes in Zimbabwe: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: New point-of-care (POC) assays for early infant HIV diagnosis are costlier than conventional total nucleic acid assays, but could increase access to testing, shorten time to results, and expedite initiation of antiretroviral therapy. We aimed to assess the clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of incorporating these POC assays into early infant diagnosis programmes in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We used the Cost Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-Pediatric model to examine the clinical benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of replacing conventional assays for early infant HIV diagnosis with POC assays at age 6 weeks in Zimbabwe. We simulated two strategies for early infant HIV diagnosis: conventional and POC. Modelled assays differed in sensitivity; specificity; time to, and probability of, return of results; and cost. Model outcomes included survival, life expectancy, and mean lifetime per-person treatment cost, which were reported separately for all HIV-exposed infants and all infants with HIV. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios with discounted (3% per year) costs and life expectancy from a health-care system perspective for all HIV-exposed infants. We judged incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $1010 (Zimbabwe's annual gross domestic product per person) or less per year of life saved to be cost-effective. FINDINGS: When conventional assays were used for early infant diagnosis, projected undiscounted life expectancy was 22·7 years for infants with HIV and 62·5 years for all HIV-exposed infants, at a cost of $610 per HIV-exposed infant. Use of POC assays for early infant HIV diagnosis improved projected undiscounted life expectancy to 25·5 years among infants with HIV and 62·6 years among HIV-exposed infants at a cost of $690 per HIV-exposed infant. At age 12 weeks, survival among all infants with HIV was 76·1% with the conventional testing strategy and 83·5% with the POC testing strategy. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of POC assays versus conventional assays for early infant diagnosis was $680 per year of life saved. When conventional assay characteristics remained constant, this ratio remained under the cost-effectiveness threshold as long as the specificity and sensitivity of the POC assay were greater than 92% and 65%, respectively. Our results were robust to plausible variations in POC assay cost, the probability of ART initiation, and probability of return of the results of POC testing. INTERPRETATION: Compared with conventional assays, POC assays for early infant HIV diagnosis in Zimbabwe will improve survival, extend life expectancy, and be cost-effective for HIV-exposed infants. FUNDING: Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation, US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, and Unitaid.

Field evaluation of HIV point-of-care testing for early infant diagnosis in Cape Town, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) coverage and uptake remains challenging. Point-of-care (POC) testing may improve access and turn-around-times, but, while several POC technologies are in development there are few data on their implementation in the field. METHODS: We conducted an implementation study of the Alere q Detect POC system for EID at two public sector health facilities in Cape Town. HIV-exposed neonates undergoing routine EID testing at a large maternity hospital and a primary care clinic received both laboratory-based HIV PCR testing per local protocols and a POC test. We analysed the performance of POC versus laboratory testing, and conducted semi-structured interviews with providers to assess acceptability and implementation issues. RESULTS: Overall 478 specimens were taken: 311 tests were performed at the obstetric hospital (median child age, 1 days) and 167 six-week tests in primary care (median child age, 42 days). 9.0% of all tests resulted in an error with no differences by site; most errors resolved with retesting. POC was more sensitive (100%; lower 95% CI, 39.8%) and specific (100%, lower 95% CI, 98%) among older children tested in primary care compared with birth testing in hospital (90.0%, 95% CI, 55.5-99.8% and 100.0%, lower 95% CI, 98.4%, respectively). Negative predictive value was high (>99%) at both sites. In interviews, providers felt the device was simple to use and facilitated decision-making in the management of infants. However, many wanted clarity on the cause of errors on the POC device to help guide repeat testing. CONCLUSIONS: POC EID testing performs well in field implementation in health care facilities and appears highly acceptable to health care providers.

The value of confirmatory testing in early infant HIV diagnosis programmes in South Africa: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: The specificity of nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) used for early infant diagnosis (EID) of HIV infection is <100%, leading some HIV-uninfected infants to be incorrectly identified as HIV-infected. The World Health Organization recommends that infants undergo a second NAAT to confirm any positive test result, but implementation is limited. Our objective was to determine the impact and cost-effectiveness of confirmatory HIV testing for EID programmes in South Africa. METHOD AND FINDINGS: Using the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-Pediatric model, we simulated EID testing at age 6 weeks for HIV-exposed infants without and with confirmatory testing. We assumed a NAAT cost of US$25, NAAT specificity of 99.6%, NAAT sensitivity of 100% for infants infected in pregnancy or at least 4 weeks prior to testing, and a mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) rate at 12 months of 4.9%; we simulated guideline-concordant rates of testing uptake, result return, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (100%). After diagnosis, infants were linked to and retained in care for 10 years (false-positive) or lifelong (true-positive). All parameters were varied widely in sensitivity analyses. Outcomes included number of infants with false-positive diagnoses linked to ART per 1,000 ART initiations, life expectancy (LE, in years) and per-person lifetime HIV-related healthcare costs. Both without and with confirmatory testing, LE was 26.2 years for HIV-infected infants and 61.4 years for all HIV-exposed infants; clinical outcomes for truly infected infants did not differ by strategy. Without confirmatory testing, 128/1,000 ART initiations were false-positive diagnoses; with confirmatory testing, 1/1,000 ART initiations were false-positive diagnoses. Because confirmatory testing averted costly HIV care and ART in truly HIV-uninfected infants, it was cost-saving: total cost US$1,790/infant tested, compared to US$1,830/infant tested without confirmatory testing. Confirmatory testing remained cost-saving unless NAAT cost exceeded US$400 or the HIV-uninfected status of infants incorrectly identified as infected was ascertained and ART stopped within 3 months of starting. Limitations include uncertainty in the data used in the model, which we examined with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We also excluded clinical harms to HIV-uninfected infants incorrectly treated with ART after false-positive diagnosis (e.g., medication toxicities); including these outcomes would further increase the value of confirmatory testing. CONCLUSIONS: Without confirmatory testing, in settings with MTCT rates similar to that of South Africa, more than 10% of infants who initiate ART may reflect false-positive diagnoses. Confirmatory testing prevents inappropriate HIV diagnosis, is cost-saving, and should be adopted in all EID programmes.

Impact of Birth HIV-PCR Testing on the Uptake of Follow-up Early Infant Diagnosis Services in Cape Town, South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Polymerase chain reaction testing at birth ("birth-testing") is suggested by new World Health Organization guidelines for rapid diagnosis of infants infected with HIV in utero. However, there are few data on the implementation of this approach in sub-Saharan Africa, and whether birth testing affects uptake of subsequent routine early infant diagnosis (EID) testing at 6-10 weeks of age is unknown. METHODS: We reviewed 575 consecutive infants undergoing targeted high-risk birth testing in Cape Town, South Africa, and matched those testing HIV negative at birth (n = 551) to HIV-exposed infants who did not receive birth testing (n = 551). Maternal and infant clinical and demographic data, including EID testing uptake, were abstracted from routine records. RESULTS: Overall, 3.8% of all birth tests conducted were positive while later EID testing positivity rates were 0.5% for those infants testing HIV negative at birth and 0.4% for those without birth testing. Infants who underwent birth testing were less likely to present for later EID compared with those without a birth test (73% vs. 85%; P < 0.001). This difference persisted after adjusting for maternal and infant characteristics (adjusted odds ratio, 0.60; 95% confidence interval: 0.41-0.86) and across demographic and clinical subgroups. Infants undergoing birth testing also presented for later EID at a significantly older age (mean age, 60 vs. 50 days; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: While the yield of targeted high-risk birth testing in this setting appears high, neonates testing HIV negative at birth may be less likely to present for subsequent EID testing. For birth testing implementation to contribute to overall EID program goals, structured interventions are required to support follow-up EID services after negative birth test results.

Frequency of Viremic Episodes in HIV-Infected Women Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy During Pregnancy: A Cohort Study.

Background: The numbers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in pregnancy are increasing rapidly with global policy changes. There are widespread concerns about ART adherence during pregnancy and postpartum but few data on viral suppression (VS) over time in these populations. Methods: We followed a cohort of 523 women in Cape Town, South Africa, initiating ART in pregnancy (once-daily tenofovir 300 mg, emtricitabine 200 mg, and efavirenz 600 mg) and achieving VS (<50 copies/mL). Participants provided specimens through 12 months postpartum for batched viral load (VL) testing separate from routine care. Analyses described the incidence of major (>1000 copies/mL) and minor (50-1000 copies/mL) viremic episodes (VEs) and factors associated with major VEs. Results: In the cohort (median age, 28 years; median pre-ART VL, 3.99 copies/mL; 3% previously defaulted ART; 24% with previous exposure to short-course antiretrovirals), the median time of follow-up from VS was 322 days. Overall, 70% maintained VS throughout follow-up, 8% experienced minor VEs only, and at least 1 major VE was documented in 22% of women. In women with VEs, peak viremia (median, 3.79 log10 copies/mL) was linearly related to pre-ART VL. The incidence of major VEs after initial VS was independently associated with younger age, ART initiation during the third trimester, previous defaulting on ART, and postpartum follow-up. Conclusions: Viremia appears to occur frequently, particularly postpartum, among HIV-infected women after initial VS in this setting. More intensive VL monitoring is warranted in this population; the immediate causes and long-term implications of VE require investigation.

Laboratory Evaluation of the Alere q Point-of-Care System for Early Infant HIV Diagnosis.

INTRODUCTION: Early infant diagnosis (EID) and prompt linkage to care are critical to minimise the high morbidity and mortality associated with infant HIV infection. Attrition in the "EID cascade" is common; however, point-of-care (POC) EID assays with same-day result could facilitate prompt linkage of HIV-infected infant to treatment. Despite a number of POC EID assays in development, few have been independently evaluated and data on new technologies are urgently needed to inform policy. METHODS: We compared Alere q 1/2 Detect POC system laboratory test characteristics with the local standard of care (SOC), Roche CAP/CTM HIV-1 qualitative PCR in an independent laboratory-based evaluation in Cape Town, South Africa. Routinely EID samples collected between November 2013 and September 2014 were each tested by both SOC and POC systems. Repeat testing was done to troubleshoot any discrepancy between POC and SOC results. RESULTS: Overall, 1098 children with a median age of 47 days (IQR, 42-117) were included. Birth PCR (age <7 days) comprised of 8% (n = 92) tests while 56% (n = 620) of children tested as part of routine EID (ages 6-14 weeks). In the overall direct comparison, Alere q Detect achieved sensitivity of 95.5% (95% CI, 91.7-97.9%) and a specificity of 99.8% (95% CI, 99.1-100%). Following repeat testing of discordant samples and exclusion of any inconclusive results, the POC assay sensitivity and specificity were 96.9% (95% CI 93.4-98.9%) and 100% (lower 95% CI 98%) respectively. Among birth PCR tests the POC assay had slightly lower sensitivity (93.3% vs 96.5% in routine EID) and higher assay error rate (10% vs 5% in samples of older children, p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate this POC assay performs well for EID in the laboratory. The high specificity and thus high positive predictive value would suggest a positive POC result may be adequate for immediate infant ART initiation. While POC testing for EID may have particular utility for birth testing at delivery facilities, the lower sensitivity and error rate requires further attention, as does field implementation of POC EID technologies in other clinical care settings.

Point-of-care HIV early infant diagnosis: is test sensitivity everything?

Despite improvements in PMTCT services in low- and middle-income countries, there are still almost 200,000 new paediatric HIV infections annually in sub-Saharan Africa. This has led to early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) programmes becoming a public health priority, but until recently, EID has required specialist laboratory equipment and trained personnel which is only feasible in urban, centralized facilities. It is thought that the successful implementation of a point-of-care (POC) test for EID has the potential to increase access to virological tests and address some of the barriers regarding retention of infants in care. However, POC evaluation has not integrated focus on performance characteristics with the health systems issues surrounding the adoption of and optimum use of these new technologies. We propose that moderate improvements in linkage to care can more than offset suboptimal sensitivity of a POC EID test which could be critical in adjusting the focus for EID programme management away from test performance and towards their ability to facilitate successful linkage to antiretroviral therapy (ART) services. These findings also highlight the urgent need to explore the implementation and operational aspects of emerging POC tests in order to fully realize the potential benefits of new technologies in practice.