Technical factors associated with the benefit of prophylactic pancreatic stent placement during high-risk ERCP: a secondary analysis of the SVI trial dataset.

BACKGROUND: Prophylactic pancreatic stent placement (PSP) is effective for preventing pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in high-risk cases, but the optimal technical approach to this intervention remains uncertain. METHODS: In this secondary analysis of 787 clinical trial participants who underwent successful stent placement, we studied the impact of: 1) whether pancreatic wire access was achieved for the sole purpose of PSP or naturally during the conduct of the case; 2) the amount of effort expended on PSP; 3) stent length; 4) stent diameter; and 5) guidewire caliber. We used logistic regression models to examine the adjusted association between each technical factor and post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). RESULTS: Ninety-one of the 787 patients experienced PEP. There was no clear association between PEP and whether pancreatic wire access was achieved for the sole purpose of PSP (vs. occurring naturally; OR 0.82, 95%CI 0.37-1.84), whether substantial effort expended on stent placement (vs. non-substantial effort; OR 1.58, 95%CI 0.73-3.45), stent length (>5 cm vs. ≤5 cm; OR 1.01, 95%CI 0.63-1.61), stent diameter (≥5 Fr vs. <5 Fr; OR 1.13, 95%CI 0.65-1.96), or guidewire caliber (0.035 inch vs. 0.025 inch; 0.83, 95%CI 0.49-1.41). CONCLUSIONS: The 5 modifiable technical factors studied in this secondary analysis of large-scale randomized trial data did not appear to have a strong impact on the benefit of prophylactic pancreatic stent placement in preventing PEP after high-risk ERCP. Within the limitations of post hoc subgroup analysis, these findings may have important implications in procedural decision-making and suggest that the benefit of PSP is robust to variations in technical approach.

Indomethacin with or without prophylactic pancreatic stent placement to prevent pancreatitis after ERCP: a randomised non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: The combination of rectally administered indomethacin and placement of a prophylactic pancreatic stent is recommended to prevent pancreatitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in high-risk patients. Preliminary evidence suggests that the use of indomethacin might eliminate or substantially reduce the need for stent placement, a technically complex, costly, and potentially harmful intervention. METHODS: In this randomised, non-inferiority trial conducted at 20 referral centres in the USA and Canada, patients (aged ≥18 years) at high risk for post-ERCP pancreatitis were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive rectal indomethacin alone or the combination of indomethacin plus a prophylactic pancreatic stent. Patients, treating clinicians, and outcomes assessors were masked to study group assignment. The primary outcome was post-ERCP pancreatitis. To declare non-inferiority, the upper bound of the two-sided 95% CI for the difference in post-ERCP pancreatitis (indomethacin alone minus indomethacin plus stent) would have to be less than 5% (non-inferiority margin) in both the intention-to-treat and per-protocol populations. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02476279), and is complete. FINDINGS: Between Sept 17, 2015, and Jan 25, 2023, a total of 1950 patients were randomly assigned. Post-ERCP pancreatitis occurred in 145 (14·9%) of 975 patients in the indomethacin alone group and in 110 (11·3%) of 975 in the indomethacin plus stent group (risk difference 3·6%; 95% CI 0·6-6·6; p=0·18 for non-inferiority). A post-hoc intention-to-treat analysis of the risk difference between groups showed that indomethacin alone was inferior to the combination of indomethacin plus prophylactic stent (p=0·011). The relative benefit of stent placement was generally consistent across study subgroups but appeared more prominent among patients at highest risk for pancreatitis. Safety outcomes (serious adverse events, intensive care unit admission, and hospital length of stay) did not differ between groups. INTERPRETATION: For preventing post-ERCP pancreatitis in high-risk patients, a strategy of indomethacin alone was not as effective as a strategy of indomethacin plus prophylactic pancreatic stent placement. These results support prophylactic pancreatic stent placement in addition to rectal indomethacin administration in high-risk patients, in accordance with clinical practice guidelines. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health.

Sex-specific disparities in COVID-19 outcomes.

Objectives: Sex-specific disparities in morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 illness are not well understood. Neutralizing antibodies (Ab) may protect against severe COVID-19 illness. We investigated the association of sex with disease progression and SARS-CoV-2 Ab response. Methods: In this exploratory analysis of the phase 3, multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled Convalescent Plasma in Outpatients (C3PO) trial, we examined whether sex was associated with progression to severe illness, defined as a composite of all-cause hospitalization, emergency/urgent care visit, or death within 15 days from study enrollment. Patients had a positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test, symptom onset within 7 days, stable condition for emergency department discharge, and were either ≥50 years old or had at least one high-risk feature for disease progression. Patients received blinded convalescent plasma or placebo in a 1:1 fashion and were evaluated on days 15 and 30 after infusion. Blood samples were collected on day 0 (pre-/post-infusion), 15, and 30 to measure Ab levels with the Broad Institute using the Plaque Reduction Neutralization Test assay. Results: Of 511 patients enrolled (median age 54 [Iinterquartile range 41-62] years, 46% male, 66% white, 20% black, 3.5% Asian), disease progression occurred in 36.7% of males and 25.9% of females (unadjusted risk difference 10.8%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-18.8%). Sex-disparities did not persist when adjusted for treatment group, age, viremic status, symptom onset, and tobacco use (adjusted risk difference 5.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.2% to 13.4%), but were present in the subgroup presenting 3 or more days after symptom onset (adjusted risk difference 12.6%, 95% CI, 3.4% to 21.9%). Mean baseline Ab levels (log scale) available for 367 patients were similar between sexes (difference 0.19 log units, 95% CI, -0.08 to 0.46). The log-scale mean increase from baseline to day 15 after adjusting for treatment assignment and baseline levels was larger in males than females (3.26 vs. 2.67). A similar difference was noted when the groups were subdivided by outcome. Conclusions: Progression of COVID-19 was similar in males and females when adjusted for age, tobacco use, and viremia status in this study. However, in the cohort presenting 3 or more days after symptom onset, COVID-19 outcomes were worse in males than females. Neutralizing Ab levels increased more in males but did not correlate with sex differences in outcomes.

Indeterminate etiology of acute liver failure in North America: Less common, still grave prognosis.

BACKGROUND: The etiology of acute liver failure (ALF) remains one of the most important factors in determining prognosis and predicting outcomes. In a significant proportion of ALF cases, however, the etiology remains unknown and is categorized as indeterminate ALF (IND-ALF). In this study, we summarize findings from patients with IND-ALF from 32 transplant centers across the United States, and we compare laboratory, prognostic, and outcome data for patients with IND-ALF. METHODS: Between 1998 and 2019, 3364 adult patients with ALF or acute liver injury (ALI) from 32 liver transplant centers were enrolled in the ALFSG registry. The primary clinical outcome of interest was 21-day transplant-free survival (TFS). RESULTS: Of the 3364 patients enrolled in the ALFSG registry, 3.4 % (n = 114) were adjudicated as true indeterminate. On multivariate analysis, patients with a lower bilirubin, lower INR, lack of use of mechanical ventilation and no clinical features of coma at baseline had a higher odds ratio of transplant free survival. The number of deaths were similar between patients with true-IND ALF versus patients with indeterminable ALF (29.8% vs. 27.2%), with almost half of the patients requiring liver transplant (42.1% vs. 45.7%). CONCLUSION: We illustrate the poor prognoses that true-IND-ALF and indeterminable ALF carry and the need for emergency liver transplantation in most cases.

Association of substance use with outcomes in mildly ill COVID-19 outpatients.

BACKGROUND: Smoking, alcohol use, and non-prescription drug use are associated with worsened COVID-19 outcomes in hospitalized patients. Whether there is an association between substance use and outcomes in patients with COVID-19 who visited the Emergency Department (ED) but did not require hospitalization has not been well established. We investigated whether smoking, alcohol, and non-prescription drug use were associated with worsened COVID-19 outcomes among such patients presenting to the ED. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of a clinical trial which sought to determine the effect of early convalescent plasma administration in patients presenting to the ED within 7 days of onset of mild COVID-19 symptoms. The study recruited 511 participants who were aged 50 years or older or had one or more risk factors for severe COVID-19. The primary outcome was disease progression within 15 days after randomization, which was defined as a composite of hospital admission for any reason, seeking emergency or urgent care, or death without hospitalization. Secondary outcomes included: no hospitalization within 30 days post-randomization, symptom worsening on the 5-category COVID-19 outpatient ordinal scale within 15 days post-randomization, and all-cause mortality. Substance use was categorized into either use or never use based on participant self-report. Logistic regression models were used to determine the association between substance use and outcomes. RESULTS: The mean age of the 511 patients enrolled was 52 years and the majority were females (274, 54%). Approximately 213 (42%) were non-Hispanic Whites, 156 (30%) Hispanics, 100 (20%) non-Hispanic Blacks, 18 (4%) non-Hispanic Asian, 8 (1%) American Indian Alaskan, and 16 (3%) unknown race. Tobacco 152 (30%) was the most common substance use reported. Alcohol use 36 (7%) and non-prescription drug use 33 (6%) were less common. Tobacco use and non-prescription drug use were associated with an increased risk for meeting the primary outcome ((tobacco: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] =2.08; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.37-3.15) and (drug: aOR =2.41; 95%CI: 1.17-5.00)) and increased risk for symptom worsening on the 5-category COVID-19 outpatient scale ((tobacco: aOR = 1.62; 95%CI: 1.09-2.42) and (drug: aOR = 2.32 95% CI: 1.10-4.87)) compared to non-use after adjusting for age, sex, plasma administration, and comorbidity. CONCLUSION: Tobacco and non-prescription drug use but not alcohol use were associated with worsened COVID-19 outcomes in patients who did not require hospitalization on their initial presentation. Future studies should determine the quantity, duration, and type of drug/tobacco use that may worsen COVID-19.

The Role of Carbamoyl Phosphate Synthetase 1 as a Prognostic Biomarker in Patients With Acetaminophen-induced Acute Liver Failure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Carbamoyl phosphate synthetase 1 (CPS1) is a highly abundant mitochondrial urea cycle enzyme that is expressed primarily in hepatocytes. CPS1 is constitutively and physiologically secreted into bile but is released into the bloodstream upon acute liver injury (ALI). Given its abundance and known short half-life, we tested the hypothesis that it may serve as a prognostic serum biomarker in the setting of acute liver failure (ALF). METHODS: CPS1 levels were determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and immunoblotting of sera collected by the ALF Study Group (ALFSG) from patients with ALI and ALF (103 patients with acetaminophen and 167 non-acetaminophen ALF etiologies). A total of 764 serum samples were examined. The inclusion of CPS1 was compared with the original ALFSG Prognostic Index by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: CPS1 values for acetaminophen-related patients were significantly higher than for non-acetaminophen patients (P < .0001). Acetaminophen-related patients who received a liver transplant or died within 21 days of hospitalization exhibited higher CPS1 levels than patients who spontaneously survived (P = .01). Logistic regression and area under the receiver operating characteristic analysis of CPS1 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay values improved the accuracy of the ALFSG Prognostic Index, which performed better than the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, in predicting 21-day transplant-free survival for acetaminophen- but not non-acetaminophen-related ALF. An increase of CPS1 but not alanine transaminase or aspartate transaminase, when comparing day 3 with day 1 levels was found in a higher percentage of acetaminophen transplanted/dead patients (P < .05). CONCLUSION: Serum CPS1 determination provides a new potential prognostic biomarker to assess patients with acetaminophen-induced ALF.

Optimal Randomization Designs for Large Multicenter Clinical Trials: From the National Institutes of Health Stroke Trials Network Funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke Experience.

From 2016 to 2021, the National Institutes of Health Stroke Trials Network funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke initiated ten multicenter randomized controlled clinical trials. Optimal subject randomization designs are demanded with 4 critical properties: (1) protection of treatment assignment randomness, (2) achievement of the desired treatment allocation ratio, (3) balancing of baseline covariates, and (4) ease of implementation. For acute stroke trials, it is necessary to minimize the time between eligibility assessment and treatment initiation. This article reviews the randomization designs for 3 trials currently enrolling in Stroke Trials Network funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, the SATURN (Statins in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Trial), the MOST (Multiarm Optimization of Stroke Thrombolysis Trial), and the FASTEST (Recombinant Factor VIIa for Hemorrhagic Stroke Trial). Randomization methods utilized in these trials include minimal sufficient balance, block urn design, big stick design, and step-forward randomization. Their advantages and limitations are reviewed and compared with traditional stratified permuted block design and minimization.

COVID-19 convalescent plasma boosts early antibody titer and does not influence the adaptive immune response.

Multiple randomized, controlled clinical trials have yielded discordant results regarding the efficacy of convalescent plasma in outpatients, with some showing an approximately 2-fold reduction in risk and others showing no effect. We quantified binding and neutralizing antibody levels in 492 of the 511 participants from the Clinical Trial of COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma in Outpatients (C3PO) of a single unit of COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) versus saline infusion. In a subset of 70 participants, peripheral blood mononuclear cells were obtained to define the evolution of B and T cell responses through day 30. Binding and neutralizing antibody responses were approximately 2-fold higher 1 hour after infusion in recipients of CCP compared with saline plus multivitamin, but levels achieved by the native immune system by day 15 were almost 10-fold higher than those seen immediately after CCP administration. Infusion of CCP did not block generation of the host antibody response or skew B or T cell phenotype or maturation. Activated CD4+ and CD8+ T cells were associated with more severe disease outcome. These data show that CCP leads to a measurable boost in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies but that the boost is modest and may not be sufficient to alter disease course.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Convalescent Plasma Outpatient Therapy to Prevent Outpatient Hospitalization: A Meta-Analysis of Individual Participant Data From 5 Randomized Trials.

BACKGROUND: Outpatient monoclonal antibodies are no longer effective and antiviral treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease remain largely unavailable in many countries worldwide. Although treatment with COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) is promising, clinical trials among outpatients have shown mixed results. METHODS: We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis from outpatient trials to assess the overall risk reduction for all-cause hospitalizations by day 28 in transfused participants. Relevant trials were identified by searching Medline, Embase, medRxiv, World Health Organization COVID-19 Research Database, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science from January 2020 to September 2022. RESULTS: Five included studies from 4 countries enrolled and transfused 2620 adult patients. Comorbidities were present in 1795 (69%). The virus neutralizing antibody dilutional titer levels ranged from 8 to 14 580 in diverse assays. One hundred sixty of 1315 (12.2%) control patients were hospitalized, versus 111 of 1305 (8.5%) CCP-treated patients, yielding a 3.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3%-6.0%; P = .001) absolute risk reduction and 30.1% relative risk reduction for all-cause hospitalization. The hospitalization reduction was greatest in those with both early transfusion and high titer with a 7.6% absolute risk reduction (95% CI, 4.0%-11.1%; P = .0001) accompanied by at 51.4% relative risk reduction. No significant reduction in hospitalization was seen with treatment >5 days after symptom onset or in those receiving CCP with antibody titers below the median titer. CONCLUSIONS: Among outpatients with COVID-19, treatment with CCP reduced the rate of all-cause hospitalization and may be most effective when given within 5 days of symptom onset and when antibody titer is higher.

Identifying Patients at Risk for Fibrosis in a Primary Care NAFLD Cohort.

GOALS AND BACKGROUND: Using natural language processing to create a nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) cohort in primary care, we assessed advanced fibrosis risk with the Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS) and evaluated risk score agreement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective study of adults with radiographic evidence of hepatic steatosis, we calculated patient-level FIB-4 and NFS scores and categorized them by fibrosis risk. Risk category and risk score agreement was analyzed using weighted κ, Pearson correlation, and Bland-Altman analysis. A multinomial logistic regression model evaluated associations between clinical variables and discrepant FIB-4 and NFS results. RESULTS: Of the 767 patient cohorts, 71% had a FIB-4 or NFS score in the indeterminate-risk or high-risk category for fibrosis. Risk categories disagreed in 43%, and scores would have resulted in different clinical decisions in 30% of the sample. The weighted κ statistic for risk category agreement was 0.41 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.36-0.46] and the Pearson correlation coefficient for log FIB-4 and NFS was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.62-0.70). The multinomial logistic regression analysis identified black race (odds ratio=2.64, 95% CI: 1.84-3.78) and hemoglobin A1c (odds ratio=1.37, 95% CI: 1.23-1.52) with higher odds of having an NFS risk category exceeding FIB-4. CONCLUSIONS: In a primary care NAFLD cohort, many patients had elevated FIB-4 and NFS risk scores and these risk categories were often in disagreement. The choice between FIB-4 and NFS for fibrosis risk assessment can impact clinical decision-making and may contribute to disparities of care.

Design and execution of sham-controlled endoscopic trials in acute pancreatitis: Lessons learned from the SHARP trial.

Using the ongoing NIDDK-funded multicenter randomized clinical trial, Sphincterotomy for Acute Recurrent Pancreatitis (SHARP) as an example, this article discusses the rationale and key aspects of study design that need to be considered when conducting a clinical trial of endoscopic therapy in acute pancreatitis. SHARP, the first trial using a sham ERCP in the placebo group, is designed to address a decades long controversy in clinical pancreatology, i.e. whether minor papilla sphincterotomy benefits patients with idiopathic acute recurrent pancreatitis who also have pancreas divisum. Although the trial has already enrolled and randomized over 5 times the number of subjects enrolled in the only randomized trial in this area published in 1992 (107 vs. 19), recruitment has been challenging and we are at ∼46% of target recruitment. The review discusses the challenges in the execution of the trial and strategies the SHARP team has used to address these, which investigators planning or considering treatment trials in pancreatitis may find helpful. It will also inform the general gastroenterologists the importance of discussing and referring potentially eligible subjects to centers participating in clinical trials. Developing evidence-based treatment will provide a solid scientific basis for physicians to recommend evidence-based treatments for pancreatitis.

An Expected Score Approach to Ordinal Outcomes in a Bayesian, Response Adaptive, Randomized Trial.

Ordinal outcomes are common in medicine and can be analyzed in many ways, but the distribution of ordinal data can present unique challenges. The proposed KESETT study is a three-armed, randomized trial comparing two doses of ketamine plus levetiracetam to levetiracetam alone for treating patients with benzodiazepine-refractory status epilepticus. A Bayesian, adaptive clinical trial is proposed employing an ordinal primary outcome at 60 minutes ranging from 1 (improving consciousness and seizure cessation) to 5 (life-threatening event/death). Based on a previous study, the ordinal outcome is expected to have a bimodal distribution, with the effect of treatment expected to be non-proportional across the outcome scale. As such, approaches relying on assuming proportionality of the odds are not appropriate. We propose for this scenario an analytic approach to compare ordinal outcomes using the expected score derived from the posterior distribution for each treatment group. This approach requires minimal assumptions, maintains the benefit of using the full ordinal scale, is interpretable, and can be used in a Bayesian analysis framework. We compare this new approach under multiple simulated scenarios to 3 traditional frequentist approaches. The new approach controls type I error and power, resulting in a sizable reduction in sample size relative to a non-parametric test.

COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma Outpatient Therapy to Prevent Outpatient Hospitalization: A Meta-analysis of Individual Participant Data From Five Randomized Trials.

Background: Monoclonal antibody and antiviral treatments for COVID-19 disease remain largely unavailable worldwide, and existing monoclonal antibodies may be less active against circulating omicron variants. Although treatment with COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) is promising, randomized clinical trials (RCTs) among outpatients have shown mixed results. Methods: We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis from all outpatient CCP RCTs to assess the overall risk reduction for all-cause hospitalizations by day 28 in all participants who had transfusion initiated. Relevant trials were identified by searching MEDLINE, Embase, MedRxiv, WHO, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science from January 2020 to September 2022. Results: Five included studies from four countries enrolled and transfused 2,620 adult patients. Comorbidities were present in 1,795 (69%). The anti-Spike or virus neutralizing antibody titer range across all trials was broad. 160 (12.2%) of 1315 control patients were hospitalized, versus 111 (8.5%) of 1305 CCP-treated patients, yielding a 3.7% (95%CI: 1.3%-6.0%; p=.001) ARR and 30.1% RRR for all-cause hospitalization. The effect size was greatest in those with both early transfusion and high titer with a 7.6% ARR (95%CI: 4.0%-11.1%; p=.0001) accompanied by at 51.4% RRR. No significant reduction in hospitalization was seen with treatment > 5 days after symptom onset or in those receiving CCP with antibody titers below the median titer. Conclusions: Among outpatients with COVID-19, treatment with CCP reduced the rate of all-cause hospitalization. CCP may be most effective when given within 5 days of symptom onset and when antibody titer is higher. Key Points: While the outpatient COVID-19 randomized controlled trial meta-analysis indicated heterogeneity in participant risk factors and convalescent plasma, the combined CCP efficacy for reducing hospitalization was significant, improving with transfusion within 5 days of symptom onset and high antibody neutralization levels.

Use of the Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System in Acute Liver Failure: Results of a Multicenter Propensity Score-Matched Study.

OBJECTIVES: The molecular adsorbent recirculating system removes water-soluble and albumin-bound toxins and may be beneficial for acute liver failure patients. We compared the rates of 21-day transplant-free survival in acute liver failure patients receiving molecular adsorbent recirculating system therapy and patients receiving standard medical therapy. DESIGN: Propensity score-matched retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING: Tertiary North American liver transplant centers. PATIENTS: Acute liver failure patients receiving molecular adsorbent recirculating system at three transplantation centers (n = 104; January 2009-2019) and controls from the U.S. Acute Liver Failure Study Group registry. INTERVENTIONS: Molecular adsorbent recirculating system treatment versus standard medical therapy (control). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: One-hundred four molecular adsorbent recirculating system patients were propensity score-matched (4:1) to 416 controls. Using multivariable conditional logistic regression adjusting for acute liver failure etiology (acetaminophen: n = 248; vs nonacetaminophen: n = 272), age, vasopressor support, international normalized ratio, King's College Criteria, and propensity score (main model), molecular adsorbent recirculating system was significantly associated with increased 21-day transplant-free survival (odds ratio, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.07-3.39; p = 0.030). This association remained significant in several sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for acute liver failure etiology and propensity score alone ("model 2"; molecular adsorbent recirculating system odds ratio, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.05-3.31; p = 0.033), and further adjustment of the "main model" for mechanical ventilation, and grade 3/4 hepatic encephalopathy ("model 3"; molecular adsorbent recirculating system odds ratio, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.07-3.41; p = 0.029). In acetaminophen-acute liver failure (n = 51), molecular adsorbent recirculating system was associated with significant improvements (post vs pre) in mean arterial pressure (92.0 vs 78.0 mm Hg), creatinine (77.0 vs 128.2 µmol/L), lactate (2.3 vs 4.3 mmol/L), and ammonia (98.0 vs 136.0 µmol/L; p ≤ 0.002 for all). In nonacetaminophen acute liver failure (n = 53), molecular adsorbent recirculating system was associated with significant improvements in bilirubin (205.2 vs 251.4 µmol/L), creatinine (83.1 vs 133.5 µmol/L), and ammonia (111.5 vs 140.0 µmol/L; p ≤ 0.022 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with molecular adsorbent recirculating system is associated with increased 21-day transplant-free survival in acute liver failure and improves biochemical variables and hemodynamics, particularly in acetaminophen-acute liver failure.

Accounting for Liver Transplant in Acute Liver Failure Research.

Background and Aims: Acute liver failure (ALF) is a rare but serious disease with challenging clinical decisions, including the possibility of liver transplantation. Although there is interest in predicting who will need a transplant, that outcome is difficult to define as the decision to transplant includes many extraneous factors. The majority of research in this setting focuses on identifying factors that can provide guidance on a patient's likelihood of survival without a liver transplant. The question that arises is whether death and transplant should be combined as a poor outcome or should alternative approaches be used to account for transplant in this setting. Furthermore, does the approach to incorporating transplant information impact the accuracy of predicting survival. We aim to compare alternative analytic methods for the ALF setting to provide guidance to the clinical research community on how to handle transplant when the outcome of interest is survival without a transplant. Methods: Five analysis approaches are compared based on model performance using existing registry data from 2100 ALF patients: logistic regression with transplant as part of the outcome, logistic regression with transplant as a covariate, inverse probability weighting, survival analysis, and multiple imputation. Results: The various models exhibit comparable model fit with each providing advantages and challenges in implementation. Conclusion: There are alternative modeling approaches in the ALF setting, leaving researchers with multiple valid options for how to include transplant when examining factors that may influence transplant-free survival.

Early Convalescent Plasma for High-Risk Outpatients with Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: Early administration of convalescent plasma obtained from blood donors who have recovered from coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) may prevent disease progression in acutely ill, high-risk patients with Covid-19. METHODS: In this randomized, multicenter, single-blind trial, we assigned patients who were being treated in an emergency department for Covid-19 symptoms to receive either one unit of convalescent plasma with a high titer of antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) or placebo. All the patients were either 50 years of age or older or had one or more risk factors for disease progression. In addition, all the patients presented to the emergency department within 7 days after symptom onset and were in stable condition for outpatient management. The primary outcome was disease progression within 15 days after randomization, which was a composite of hospital admission for any reason, seeking emergency or urgent care, or death without hospitalization. Secondary outcomes included the worst severity of illness on an 8-category ordinal scale, hospital-free days within 30 days after randomization, and death from any cause. RESULTS: A total of 511 patients were enrolled in the trial (257 in the convalescent-plasma group and 254 in the placebo group). The median age of the patients was 54 years; the median symptom duration was 4 days. In the donor plasma samples, the median titer of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies was 1:641. Disease progression occurred in 77 patients (30.0%) in the convalescent-plasma group and in 81 patients (31.9%) in the placebo group (risk difference, 1.9 percentage points; 95% credible interval, -6.0 to 9.8; posterior probability of superiority of convalescent plasma, 0.68). Five patients in the plasma group and 1 patient in the placebo group died. Outcomes regarding worst illness severity and hospital-free days were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: The administration of Covid-19 convalescent plasma to high-risk outpatients within 1 week after the onset of symptoms of Covid-19 did not prevent disease progression. (SIREN-C3PO ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04355767.).

Advanced liver fibrosis and the metabolic syndrome in a primary care setting.

AIMS: The fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) are noninvasive and accessible methods for assessing advanced liver fibrosis risk in primary care. We evaluated the distribution of FIB-4 and NFS scores in primary care patients with clinical signals for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study of electronic record data between 2007 and 2018 included adults with at least one abnormal aminotransferase and no known (non-NAFLD) liver disease. We calculated patient-level FIB-4 and NFS scores, the proportion of patients with mean values exceeding advanced fibrosis thresholds (indeterminate risk: FIB-4 > 1.3, NFS > -1.455; high-risk: FIB-4 > 2.67, NFS > 0.676), and the proportion of patients with a NAFLD International Classification of Diseases-9/10 code. Logistic regression models evaluated the associations of metabolic syndrome (MetS) components with elevated FIB-4 and NFS scores. RESULTS: The cohort included 6506 patients with a median of 6 (interquartile range: 3-13) FIB-4 and NFS scores per patient. Of these patients, 81% had at least two components of MetS, 29% had mean FIB-4 and NFS scores for indeterminate fibrosis risk, and 11% had either mean FIB-4 or NFS scores exceeding the high advanced fibrosis risk thresholds. Regression models identified associations of low high-density lipoprotein, hyperglycemia, Black race and male gender with high-risk FIB-4 and NFS values. Only 5% of patients had existing diagnoses for NAFLD identified. CONCLUSIONS: Many primary care patients have FIB-4 and NFS scores concerning for advanced fibrosis, but rarely a diagnosis of NAFLD. Elevated FIB-4 and NFS scores may provide signals for further clinical evaluation of liver disease in primary care settings.

Coagulopathy, Bleeding Events, and Outcome According to Rotational Thromboelastometry in Patients With Acute Liver Injury/Failure.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with acute liver injury or failure (ALI/ALF) experience bleeding complications uncommonly despite an abnormal hemostatic profile. Rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM), which assesses clot formation in whole blood, was used to determine the nature of abnormal hemostasis and whether it contributes to bleeding events, illness severity, or survival. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A total of 200 patients were recruited from sites of the ALF Study Group. Blood collected daily for up to 5 days was analyzed using ROTEM delta devices. Consistent with standard laboratory evidence of hypocoagulability (median international normalized ratio = 2.9 and platelet count = 144 × 109 /L), patients frequently exhibited ROTEM parameters outside the normal range (73% and 62% had abnormalities in clot formation from extrinsic and intrinsic clotting cascades, respectively); however, measures of clot stability were generally normal. Eighteen patients (9%) experienced bleeding events, in whom clot initiation, assembly, and firmness were more severely deranged than patients without bleeding. Abnormal ROTEM parameters were more frequently observed in patients with non-acetaminophen ALI/ALF than those with acetaminophen ALI/ALF (clot initiation [P < 0.001], assembly [P = 0.02], firmness at 10 minutes [P = 0.05], and maximal firmness [P = 0.06]). Patients with more severe systemic complications (high-grade hepatic encephalopathy and need for renal replacement therapy) also had a higher incidence of abnormal ROTEM parameters. Finally, more hypocoagulable ROTEM parameters (clot initiation (P = 0.005), stiffness at 10 minutes (P = 0.05), and maximal stiffness by fibrin assembly (P = 0.004)) were observed in patients who died or underwent liver transplantation than those who survived with their native liver. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with ALI/ALF, abnormal ROTEM parameters are frequent and proportional to disease severity. Whether the increased bleeding risk associated with abnormal ROTEM indicates hemostatic failure or is a proxy for disease severity requires additional study.