Validity of models for predicting BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations.

BACKGROUND: Deleterious mutations of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes confer susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer. At least 7 models for estimating the probabilities of having a mutation are used widely in clinical and scientific activities; however, the merits and limitations of these models are not fully understood. OBJECTIVE: To systematically quantify the accuracy of the following publicly available models to predict mutation carrier status: BRCAPRO, family history assessment tool, Finnish, Myriad, National Cancer Institute, University of Pennsylvania, and Yale University. DESIGN: Cross-sectional validation study, using model predictions and BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation status of patients different from those used to develop the models. SETTING: Multicenter study across Cancer Genetics Network participating centers. PATIENTS: 3 population-based samples of participants in research studies and 8 samples from genetic counseling clinics. MEASUREMENTS: Discrimination between individuals testing positive for a mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2 from those testing negative, as measured by the c-statistic, and sensitivity and specificity of model predictions. RESULTS: The 7 models differ in their predictions. The better-performing models have a c-statistic around 80%. BRCAPRO has the largest c-statistic overall and in all but 2 patient subgroups, although the margin over other models is narrow in many strata. Outside of high-risk populations, all models have high false-negative and false-positive rates across a range of probability thresholds used to refer for mutation testing. LIMITATION: Three recently published models were not included. CONCLUSIONS: All models identify women who probably carry a deleterious mutation of BRCA1 or BRCA2 with adequate discrimination to support individualized genetic counseling, although discrimination varies across models and populations.

Characterization of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in a large United States sample.

PURPOSE: An accurate evaluation of the penetrance of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations is essential to the identification and clinical management of families at high risk of breast and ovarian cancer. Existing studies have focused on Ashkenazi Jews (AJ) or on families from outside the United States. In this article, we consider the US population using the largest US-based cohort to date of both AJ and non-AJ families. METHODS: We collected 676 AJ families and 1,272 families of other ethnicities through the Cancer Genetics Network. Two hundred eighty-two AJ families were population based, whereas the remainder was collected through counseling clinics. We used a retrospective likelihood approach to correct for bias induced by oversampling of participants with a positive family history. Our approach takes full advantage of detailed family history information and the Mendelian transmission of mutated alleles in the family. RESULTS: In the US population, the estimated cumulative breast cancer risk at age 70 years was 0.46 (95% CI, 0.39 to 0.54) in BRCA1 carriers and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.36 to 0.51) in BRCA2 carriers, whereas ovarian cancer risk was 0.39 (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.50) in BRCA1 carriers and 0.22 (95% CI, 0.14 to 0.32) in BRCA2 carriers. We also reported the prospective risks of developing cancer for cancer-free carriers in 10-year age intervals. We noted a rapid decrease in the relative risk of breast cancer with age and derived its implication for genetic counseling. CONCLUSION: The penetrance of BRCA mutations in the United States is largely consistent with previous studies on Western populations given the large CIs on existing estimates. However, the absolute cumulative risks are on the lower end of the spectrum.

Genetic testing for a BRCA1 mutation: prophylactic surgery and screening behavior in women 2 years post testing.

Mutations in the BRCA1 gene are associated with an increased risk of breast and ovarian cancer in carrier women. An understanding of behavioral responses to BRCA1 mutation testing by mutation carriers and non-carriers is important to guide the clinical application of this new technology. This study examined the utilization of genetic testing for a BRCA1 mutation in high-risk individuals and the response of tested women with respect to interventions for early cancer detection and prevention. This study assessed the utilization of genetic testing for both men and women in a large kindred and the behavioral responses by women with respect to use of health care interventions during the 2 years following testing. Participants were offered BRCA1 mutation testing. Surveillance behaviors related to breast and ovarian cancer were assessed by computer-assisted telephone interviews at baseline (prior to genetic counseling and testing), 1-2 weeks, 4-6 months, 1 and 2 years after the provision of test results. Mutation carriers, non-carriers, and individuals of unknown mutation status were compared to determine the impact of test results. Utilization of genetic testing for both men and women are reported and, for women, mammography, breast self-exam, clinical breast exam, mastectomy, oophorectomy, transvaginal ultrasound, and CA125 screening were assessed. Of those fully informed of the opportunity for testing, 55% of the women and 52% of the men pursued genetic testing. With respect to mammography for women 40 years and older, 82% of mutation carriers obtained a mammogram in each year following testing compared to 72% of non-carrier women the first year and 67% the second year. This mammography utilization represents a significant increase over baseline for both mutation carriers and non-carriers. Younger carrier women also significantly increased their mammography utilization from baseline. Overall, 29% of the carrier women did not obtain a single mammogram by 2 years post-testing. At 2 years, 83% of the carrier women and 74% of the non-carriers reported adherence to recommendations for breast self-exam and over 80% of carrier women had obtained a clinical breast examination each year following testing. None of the carrier women had obtained a prophylactic mastectomy by 2 years after testing, although 11% were considering this procedure. Of carrier women 25 years of age and older who had at least one intact ovary at the time of testing, 46% of carriers had obtained an oophorectomy 2 years after testing, including 78% of women 40 years of age and older. The majority of carrier women (73%) had discussed their genetic test results with a medical doctor or health care provider. Our results indicate utilization of genetic testing by a majority of high-risk individuals who received information about testing. Both carriers and non-carriers increased their utilization of mammography and breast self-exam following testing. Oophorectomy was obtained by a large proportion of carrier women in contrast to mastectomy which was not utilized within the first 2 years following testing.