Foresight science in conservation: Tools, barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities.

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.

High resolution thermal remote sensing and the limits of species' tolerance.

Extinction risks for many insect species, particularly across very broad spatial extents, have been linked to the growing frequency and severity of temperatures that exceed the boundaries of their realized niches. Measurement and mitigation of such impacts is hindered by the availability of high-resolution measurements of species-specific severity of extreme weather, especially temperature. While techniques enabling interpolation of broad-scale remote sensing metrics are vital for such efforts, direct remote sensing measurements of thermal conditions could improve habitat management by providing detailed insights that interpolative approaches cannot. Advances in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology have created opportunities to better evaluate the role of microclimates in local species extinctions. Here, we develop a method to create high-resolution maps of microclimates using UAV and thermal imaging technology that use species' realized niche boundaries to assess potential effects of severity of extreme temperatures. We generated air temperature maps (5 cm resolution) and canopy height maps (1 cm resolution) for 15 sites in a rare alvar ecosystem in eastern Ontario. We validated these remote sensing observations against independent, in situ temperature observations using iButtons. Temperature observations were accurate and related to physical heterogeneity in alvar habitats. We converted temperature measures into estimates of proximity of thermal niche boundaries for three butterfly species found during field surveys. This is the first time that this method has been applied to high resolution remote sensing observations and offers potential to assess the availability and adequacy of microclimates within habitats at resolutions relevant for conservation management.

Fewer bat passes are detected during small, commercial drone flights.

Advances in technological capabilities, operational simplicity and cost efficiency have promoted the rapid integration of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into ecological research, providing access to study taxa that are otherwise difficult to survey, such as bats. Many bat species are currently at risk, but accurately surveying populations is challenging for species that do not roost in large aggregations. Acoustic recorders attached to UAVs provide an opportunity to survey bats in challenging habitats. However, UAVs may alter bat behaviour, leading to avoidance of the UAV, reduced detection rates and inaccurate surveys. We evaluated the number of bat passes detected with and without the presence of a small, commercial UAV in open habitats. Only 22% of bat passes were recorded in the presence of the UAV (0.23 ± 0.09 passes/min) compared to control periods without the UAV (1.03 ± 0.17 passes/min), but the effect was smaller on the big brown bat/silver-haired bat (Eptesicus fuscus/Lasionycteris noctivagans) acoustic complex. Noise interference from the UAV also reduced on-board bat detection rates. We conclude that acoustic records attached to UAVs may inaccurately survey bat populations due to low and variable detection rates by such recorders.