A global-scale screening of non-native aquatic organisms to identify potentially invasive species under current and future climate conditions.

The threat posed by invasive non-native species worldwide requires a global approach to identify which introduced species are likely to pose an elevated risk of impact to native species and ecosystems. To inform policy, stakeholders and management decisions on global threats to aquatic ecosystems, 195 assessors representing 120 risk assessment areas across all six inhabited continents screened 819 non-native species from 15 groups of aquatic organisms (freshwater, brackish, marine plants and animals) using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit. This multi-lingual decision-support tool for the risk screening of aquatic organisms provides assessors with risk scores for a species under current and future climate change conditions that, following a statistically based calibration, permits the accurate classification of species into high-, medium- and low-risk categories under current and predicted climate conditions. The 1730 screenings undertaken encompassed wide geographical areas (regions, political entities, parts thereof, water bodies, river basins, lake drainage basins, and marine regions), which permitted thresholds to be identified for almost all aquatic organismal groups screened as well as for tropical, temperate and continental climate classes, and for tropical and temperate marine ecoregions. In total, 33 species were identified as posing a 'very high risk' of being or becoming invasive, and the scores of several of these species under current climate increased under future climate conditions, primarily due to their wide thermal tolerances. The risk thresholds determined for taxonomic groups and climate zones provide a basis against which area-specific or climate-based calibrated thresholds may be interpreted. In turn, the risk rankings help decision-makers identify which species require an immediate 'rapid' management action (e.g. eradication, control) to avoid or mitigate adverse impacts, which require a full risk assessment, and which are to be restricted or banned with regard to importation and/or sale as ornamental or aquarium/fishery enhancement.

Robust Decision Analysis under Severe Uncertainty and Ambiguous Tradeoffs: An Invasive Species Case Study.

Bayesian decision analysis is a useful method for risk management decisions, but is limited in its ability to consider severe uncertainty in knowledge, and value ambiguity in management objectives. We study the use of robust Bayesian decision analysis to handle problems where one or both of these issues arise. The robust Bayesian approach models severe uncertainty through bounds on probability distributions, and value ambiguity through bounds on utility functions. To incorporate data, standard Bayesian updating is applied on the entire set of distributions. To elicit our expert's utility representing the value of different management objectives, we use a modified version of the swing weighting procedure that can cope with severe value ambiguity. We demonstrate these methods on an environmental management problem to eradicate an alien invasive marmorkrebs recently discovered in Sweden, which needed a rapid response despite substantial knowledge gaps if the species was still present (i.e., severe uncertainty) and the need for difficult tradeoffs and competing interests (i.e., value ambiguity). We identify that the decision alternatives to drain the system and remove individuals in combination with dredging and sieving with or without a degradable biocide, or increasing pH, are consistently bad under the entire range of probability and utility bounds. This case study shows how robust Bayesian decision analysis provides a transparent methodology for integrating information in risk management problems where little data are available and/or where the tradeoffs are ambiguous.

Multiple drivers of decline in the global status of freshwater crayfish (Decapoda: Astacidea).

Rates of biodiversity loss are higher in freshwater ecosystems than in most terrestrial or marine ecosystems, making freshwater conservation a priority. However, prioritization methods are impeded by insufficient knowledge on the distribution and conservation status of freshwater taxa, particularly invertebrates. We evaluated the extinction risk of the world's 590 freshwater crayfish species using the IUCN Categories and Criteria and found 32% of all species are threatened with extinction. The level of extinction risk differed between families, with proportionally more threatened species in the Parastacidae and Astacidae than in the Cambaridae. Four described species were Extinct and 21% were assessed as Data Deficient. There was geographical variation in the dominant threats affecting the main centres of crayfish diversity. The majority of threatened US and Mexican species face threats associated with urban development, pollution, damming and water management. Conversely, the majority of Australian threatened species are affected by climate change, harvesting, agriculture and invasive species. Only a small proportion of crayfish are found within the boundaries of protected areas, suggesting that alternative means of long-term protection will be required. Our study highlights many of the significant challenges yet to come for freshwater biodiversity unless conservation planning shifts from a reactive to proactive approach.

Eroded swimmeret syndrome in female crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus associated with Aphanomyces astaci and Fusarium spp. infections.

We describe a novel syndrome in crayfish, eroded swimmeret syndrome (ESS), affecting wild female signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus. ESS causes partial or total swimmeret erosion. We observed ESS only in female signal crayfish larger than 40 mm carapace length, i.e. sexually mature and probably having carried eggs at least once. The eroded swimmerets were melanised, indicating a crayfish immune system response. We isolated Fusarium tricinctum species complex (SC), F. sambucinum SC, Saprolegnia parasitica and S. australis from the melanised tissue of the eroded swimmerets. ESS includes chronic Aphanomyces astaci infection and a secondary infection by Fusarium sp. In Sweden, we found female signal crayfish with ESS in 6 out of 11 populations with a prevalence below 1% in lakes with commercially productive signal crayfish populations and higher than 29% in lakes with documented signal crayfish population crashes. In Finland, the ESS prevalence was from 3.4 to 6.2% in a commercially productive population. None of the sampled male signal crayfish showed signs of ESS. A caging experiment indicated that females with at least 1 lost swimmeret carried on average 25% fewer fertilized eggs compared to females with intact swimmerets. ESS could significantly reduce individual female fecundity and thus could also affect fecundity at the population level. The decline in reproductive success due to ESS could be among the factors contributing to fluctuations in wild signal crayfish populations.

Potent infection reservoir of crayfish plague now permanently established in Norway.

Noble crayfish Astacus astacus is threatened in Europe due to invasive crayfish carrying the crayfish plague agent Aphanomyces astaci. Norway is among the last countries in which the introduction of non-indigenous crayfish has been limited through strict legislation practices. However, North American signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus were recently discovered in a water-course that has been repeatedly hit by the plague. We mapped the distribution and relative density (catch per unit effort) of signal crayfish within this lake, and performed agent-specific real-time PCR to estimate the prevalence of A. astaci in the population. The resulting length frequencies and relative density estimates clearly demonstrate a well-established signal crayfish population, in which 86.4% of the analysed individuals were confirmed carriers. The success of detection was significantly higher (84.1%) in the crayfish tailfan (i.e. uropods) than in the soft abdominal cuticle (38.4%), which is commonly used in prevalence studies. We therefore propose tailfan (uropods and telson) as the preferred tissue for studying A. astaci prevalence in signal crayfish populations. The likelihood of detecting an A. astaci-positive signal crayfish increased significantly with increasing crayfish length. Further, large female crayfish expressed significantly higher PCR-forming units values than large males. In surveys primarily exploring the presence of A. astaci-positive individuals in a population, large females should be selected for molecular analyses. Our study demonstrates that a potent crayfish plague infection reservoir, evidently originating from the illegal human introduction of signal crayfish, has permanently been established in Norway.

A highly virulent pathogen, Aeromonas hydrophila, from the freshwater crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus.

Aeromonas spp. are characteristic bacteria of freshwaters and many of them can be components of the bacterial flora of aquatic animals and may become pathogens on animals including humans. In this study Aeromonas hydrophila was isolated from the freshwater crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus, and was found to be a highly pathogenic bacterium among many isolated bacteria. Mortality reached 100% within 6h when 200 microl of 1.24 x 10(7)CFU/ml was applied by injection. Histopathological studies of moribund crayfish showed that extensive necrotic nuclei and clump-infiltrated hemocytes were found in observed tissues including gill, heart, hepatopancreas and the circulatory system. To verify how crayfish are susceptible to this bacterium, crude extracellular products (ECPs) obtained from culture supernatant of A. hydrophila was studied either in vivo or in vitro. ECPs (200 microl) were able to kill crayfish by injection. In an in vitro study, ECPs induced cytotoxicity of hemocytes as well as hematopoietic cells in a dose- and time-dependent manner after 30 min post inoculation. Two genes coding for endotoxins were also found in this isolate of A. hydrophila. This indicates that the bacterial endotoxins are the causative agents of crayfish mortality. Moreover, the effect of temperature on the infectivity of A. hydrophila to crayfish was also studied. At 4 degrees C, all crayfish survived, whereas at 20 degrees C the animals died rapidly after bacterial challenge. At this low temperature A. hydrophila did not replicate or replicated at a very low degree and hence crayfish could probably mount effective cellular reactions towards A. hydrophila.

Incomes, attitudes, and occurrences of invasive species: an application to signal crayfish in Sweden.

This article analyzes and carries out an econometric test of the explanatory power of economic and attitude variables for occurrences of the nonnative signal crayfish in Swedish waters. Signal crayfish are a carrier of plague which threatens the native noble crayfish with extinction. Crayfish are associated with recreational and cultural traditions in Sweden, which may run against environmental preferences for preserving native species. Econometric analysis is carried out using panel data at the municipality level with economic factors and attitudes as explanatory variables, which are derived from a simple dynamic harvesting model. A log-normal model is used for the regression analysis, and the results indicate significant impacts on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish of changes in both economic and attitude variables. Variables reflecting environmental and recreational preferences have unexpected signs, where the former variable has a positive and the latter a negative impact on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish. These effects are, however, counteracted by their respective interaction effect with income.