A spatial open-population capture-recapture model.

A spatial open-population capture-recapture model is described that extends both the non-spatial open-population model of Schwarz and Arnason and the spatially explicit closed-population model of Borchers and Efford. The superpopulation of animals available for detection at some time during a study is conceived as a two-dimensional Poisson point process. Individual probabilities of birth and death follow the conventional open-population model. Movement between sampling times may be modeled with a dispersal kernel using a recursive Markovian algorithm. Observations arise from distance-dependent sampling at an array of detectors. As in the closed-population spatial model, the observed data likelihood relies on integration over the unknown animal locations; maximization of this likelihood yields estimates of the birth, death, movement, and detection parameters. The models were fitted to data from a live-trapping study of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in New Zealand. Simulations confirmed that spatial modeling can greatly reduce the bias of capture-recapture survival estimates and that there is a degree of robustness to misspecification of the dispersal kernel. An R package is available that includes various extensions.

Spatial capture-mark-resight estimation of animal population density.

Sightings of previously marked animals can extend a capture-recapture dataset without the added cost of capturing new animals for marking. Combined marking and resighting methods are therefore an attractive option in animal population studies, and there exist various likelihood-based non-spatial models, and some spatial versions fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. As implemented to date, the focus has been on modeling sightings only, which requires that the spatial distribution of pre-marked animals is known. We develop a suite of likelihood-based spatial mark-resight models that either include the marking phase ("capture-mark-resight" models) or require a known distribution of marked animals (narrow-sense "mark-resight"). The new models sacrifice some information in the covariance structure of the counts of unmarked animals; estimation is by maximizing a pseudolikelihood with a simulation-based adjustment for overdispersion in the sightings of unmarked animals. Simulations suggest that the resulting estimates of population density have low bias and adequate confidence interval coverage under typical sampling conditions. Further work is needed to specify the conditions under which ignoring covariance results in unacceptable loss of precision, or to modify the pseudolikelihood to include that information. The methods are applied to a study of ship rats Rattus rattus using live traps and video cameras in a New Zealand forest, and to previously published data.

Estimation of population density by spatially explicit capture-recapture analysis of data from area searches.

The recent development of capture-recapture methods for estimating animal population density has focused on passive detection using devices such as traps or automatic cameras. Some species lend themselves more to active searching: a polygonal plot may be searched repeatedly and the locations of detected individuals recorded, or a plot may be searched just once and multiple cues (feces or other sign) identified as belonging to particular individuals. This report presents new likelihood-based spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) methods for such data. The methods are shown to be at least as robust in simulations as an equivalent Bayesian analysis, and to have negligible bias and near-nominal confidence interval coverage with parameter values from a lizard data set. It is recommended on the basis of simulation that plots for SECR should be at least as large as the home range of the target species. The R package "secr" may be used to fit the models. The likelihood-based implementation extends the spatially explicit analyses available for search data to include binary data (animal detected or not detected on each occasion) or count data (multiple detections per occasion) from multiple irregular polygons, with or without dependence among polygons. It is also shown how the method may be adapted for detections along a linear transect.

Population density estimated from locations of individuals on a passive detector array.

The density of a closed population of animals occupying stable home ranges may be estimated from detections of individuals on an array of detectors, using newly developed methods for spatially explicit capture-recapture. Likelihood-based methods provide estimates for data from multi-catch traps or from devices that record presence without restricting animal movement ("proximity" detectors such as camera traps and hair snags). As originally proposed, these methods require multiple sampling intervals. We show that equally precise and unbiased estimates may be obtained from a single sampling interval, using only the spatial pattern of detections. This considerably extends the range of possible applications, and we illustrate the potential by estimating density from simulated detections of bird vocalizations on a microphone array. Acoustic detection can be defined as occurring when received signal strength exceeds a threshold. We suggest detection models for binary acoustic data, and for continuous data comprising measurements of all signals above the threshold. While binary data are often sufficient for density estimation, modeling signal strength improves precision when the microphone array is small.