A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies.

The relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm. INTRODUCTION: Previous falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD). METHODS: The resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients. RESULTS: Falls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27-1.84) in men vs. HR 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.45) in women, P for interaction = 0.013). The HRs associated with previous falls decreased with age in women and with duration of follow-up in men and women for most fracture outcomes. There was no evidence of an interaction between falls and BMD for fracture risk. Subsequent risk for a major osteoporotic fracture increased with each additional previous fall in women and men. CONCLUSIONS: A previous self-reported fall confers an increased risk of fracture that is largely independent of BMD. Previous falls should be considered as an additional risk factor in future iterations of FRAX to improve fracture risk prediction.

Australian Patient Preferences for Discussing Spiritual Issues in the Hospital Setting: An Exploratory Mixed Methods Study.

While there is high patient acceptance for clinical staff discussing issues regarding spirituality with hospital inpatients, it is not clear which staff member patients prefer for these discussions. This unique exploratory study investigated inpatient preferences regarding which staff member should raise the topic of spirituality. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with inpatients at six hospitals in Sydney, Australia (n = 897), with a subset invited to participate in qualitative interviews (n = 41). Pastoral care staff (32.9%) were the preferred staff members with whom to discuss spiritual issues, followed by doctors (22.4%). Qualitative findings indicated that individual characteristics of the staff member are more important than their role.

Genetic Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Fracture.

CONTEXT: Fragility fracture is a significant public health problem because it is associated with increased mortality. We want to find out whether the risk of fracture can be predicted from the time of birth. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between a polygenic risk score (PRS) and lifetime fracture risk. METHODS: This population-based prospective study involved 3515 community-dwelling individuals aged 60+ years who have been followed for up to 20 years. Femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. A PRS was created by summing the weighted number of risk alleles for each single nucleotide polymorphism using BMD-associated coefficients. Fragility fractures were radiologically ascertained, whereas mortality was ascertained through a state registry. Residual lifetime risk of fracture (RLRF) was estimated by survival analysis. RESULTS: The mortality-adjusted RLRF for women and men was 36% (95% CI, 34%-39%) and 21% (18%-24%), respectively. Individuals with PRS > 4.24 (median) had a greater risk (1.2-fold in women and 1.1-fold in men) than the population average risk. For hip fracture, the average RLRF was 10% (95% CI, 8%-12%) for women and ∼5% (3%-7%) for men; however, the risk was significantly increased by 1.5-fold and 1.3-fold for women and men with high PRS, respectively. CONCLUSION: A genetic profiling of BMD-associated genetic variants is associated with the residual lifetime risk of fracture, suggesting the potential for incorporating the polygenic risk score in personalized fracture risk assessment.

Effects of bariatric surgery and dietary intervention on insulin resistance and appetite hormones over a 3 year period.

To examine an impact of three types of bariatric surgery compared with dietary intervention (DIET), on concurrent changes in Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) and appetite hormones over 3 years. Fifty-five adults were studied during phase of weight loss (0-12 months) and during weight stability (12-36 months) post intervention. Measurements of HOMA-IR, fasting and postprandial PYY and GLP1, adiponectin, CRP, RBP4, FGF21 hormones and dual-Xray absorptiometry were performed throughout the study. All surgical groups achieved significant reductions in HOMA-IR with greatest difference between Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and DIET (- 3.7; 95% CI - 5.4, - 2.1; p = 0.001) at 12-36 months. Initial (0-12 months) HOMA-IR values were no different to DIET after adjustment for the lost weight. During 12-36 months, after controlling for treatment procedure and weight, for every twofold increase in postprandial PYY and adiponectin, HOMA-IR decreased by 0.91 (95% CI - 1.71, - 0.11; p = 0.030) and by 0.59 (95% CI - 1.10, - 0.10; p = 0.023) respectively. Initial, non-sustained changes in RBP4 and FGF21 were not associated with HOMA-IR values. While initial rapid weight loss reduces insulin resistance, the enhanced secretions of PYY and adiponectin may contribute to weight-independent improvements in HOMA-IR during weight stability.Clinical trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR): ACTRN12613000188730.

Fracture risk in women with osteoporosis initiated on gastro-resistant risedronate versus immediate release risedronate or alendronate: a claims data analysis in the USA.

The study results indicate that women with osteoporosis initiated on gastro-resistant risedronate have a lower risk of fracture than those initiated on immediate release risedronate or alendronate. A large proportion of women discontinued all oral bisphosphonate therapies within 1 year of treatment start. PURPOSE: Using a US claims database (2009-2019), we compared risk of fractures between women with osteoporosis initiated on gastro-resistant (GR) risedronate and those initiated on (a) immediate release (IR) risedronate or (b) immediate release alendronate. METHODS: Women aged ≥ 60 years with osteoporosis who had ≥ 2 oral bisphosphonate prescription fills were followed for ≥ 1 year after the first observed bisphosphonates dispensing (index date). Fracture risk was compared between the GR risedronate and IR risedronate/alendronate cohorts using adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs), both overall and in subgroups with high fracture risk due to older age or comorbidity/medications. Site-specific fractures were identified based on diagnosis codes recorded on medical claims using a claims-based algorithm. Persistence on bisphosphonate therapy was evaluated for all groups. RESULTS: aIRRs generally indicated lower fracture risk for GR risedronate than IR risedronate and alendronate. When comparing GR risedronate to IR risedronate, statistically significant aIRRs (p < 0.05) were observed for pelvic fractures in the full cohorts (aIRRs = 0.37), for any fracture and pelvic fractures among women aged ≥ 65 years (aIRRs = 0.63 and 0.41), for any fracture and pelvic fractures among women aged ≥ 70 years (aIRRs = 0.69 and 0.24), and for pelvic fracture among high-risk women due to comorbidity/medications (aIRR = 0.34). When comparing GR risedronate to alendronate, statistically significant aIRRs were observed for pelvic fractures in the full cohorts (aIRR = 0.54), for any fracture and wrist/arm fractures among women aged ≥ 65 years (aIRRs = 0.73 and 0.63), and for any fracture, pelvic, and wrist/arm fractures among women aged ≥ 70 years (aIRRs = 0.72, 0.36, and 0.58). In all cohorts, ~ 40% completely discontinued oral bisphosphonates within 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Discontinuation rates of oral bisphosphonate therapy were high. However, women initiated on GR risedronate had a significantly lower risk of fracture for several skeletal sites than women initiated on IR risedronate/alendronate, particularly those aged ≥ 70 years.

Prevalence of osteoporosis and incidence of related fractures in developed economies in the Asia Pacific region: a systematic review.

Robust data on osteoporosis in the Asia Pacific region could improve healthcare decision-making. Osteoporosis affects 10-30% of women aged 40 + , and up to 10% of men in 7 developed economies in Asia Pacific. Fractures affect 500-1000 adults aged 50 + per 100,000 person-years. Policymakers and clinicians must address this problem. PURPOSE: Osteoporosis and associated fractures result in considerable morbidity, loss of productivity, early mortality, and increased healthcare expenses. Many countries in the Asia Pacific (AP) region, especially middle- and higher-income economies, are faced with aging and increasingly sedentary populations. It is critical to consolidate and analyze the available information on the prevalence and incidence of the disease in these countries. METHODS: We systematically reviewed articles and gray literature for Australia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. We searched PubMed, ScienceDirect, JSTOR, Cochrane, Google Scholar, and other databases for data published 2009-2018. We included articles with prevalence or incidence estimates for adults with osteoporosis or related fractures. RESULTS: All locations had data available, but of widely varying quantity and quality. Most estimates for osteoporosis prevalence ranged from 10 to 30% for women ages 40 and older, and up to 10% for men. Osteoporotic fracture incidence typically ranged between 500 and 1000 per 100,000 person-years among adults aged 50 and older. Both outcomes typically increased with age and were more common among women. CONCLUSION: Osteoporosis and associated fractures affect significant portions of the adult population in developed economies in the AP region. Governments and healthcare systems must consider how best to prevent and diagnose osteoporosis, and manage affected individuals, to reduce healthcare costs and mortality associated with fractures.

Association of Multimorbidity and Excess Mortality After Fractures Among Danish Adults.

Importance: Limited knowledge about interactions among health disorders impedes optimal patient care. Because comorbidities are common among patients 50 years and older with fractures, these fractures provide a useful setting for studying interactions among disorders. Objective: To define multimorbidity clusters at the time of fracture and quantify the interaction between multimorbidity and fracture in association with postfracture excess mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide cohort study included 307 870 adults in Denmark born on or before January 1, 1951, who had an incident low-trauma fracture between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2014, and were followed up through December 31, 2016. Data were analyzed from February 1 to March 31, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Fracture and 32 predefined chronic diseases recorded within 5 years before the index fracture were identified from the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register. Death was ascertained from the Danish Register on Causes of Death. Latent class analysis was conducted to identify multimorbidity clusters. Relative survival analysis was used to quantify excess mortality associated with the combination of multimorbidity and fractures at specific sites. Results: Among the 307 870 participants identified with incident fractures, 95 372 were men (31.0%; mean [SD] age at fracture, 72.3 [11.2] years) and 212 498 were women (69.0%; mean [SD] age at fracture, 74.9 [11.2] years). During a median of 6.5 (IQR, 3.0-11.0) years of follow-up, 41 017 men (43.0%) and 81 727 women (38.5%) died. Almost half of patients with fractures (42.9%) had at least 2 comorbidities. Comorbidities at fracture were categorized as low-multimorbidity (60.5% in men and 66.5% in women), cardiovascular (23.7% in men and 23.5% in women), diabetic (5.6% in men and 5.0% in women), malignant (5.1% in men and 5.0% in women), and mixed hepatic and/or inflammatory (5.1% in men only) clusters. These clusters distinguished individuals with advanced, complex, or late-stage disease from those with earlier-stage disease. Multimorbidity and proximal or lower leg fractures were associated with increased mortality risk, with the highest excess mortality found in patients with hip fracture in the malignant cluster (1-year excess mortality: 40.8% [95% CI: 38.1%-43.6%]). The combination of multimorbidity and fracture compounded the association with mortality, conferring much greater risk than either alone. Conclusions and Relevance: Concomitant illnesses were common and clustered into distinct multimorbidity clusters that were associated with excess postfracture mortality. The compound contribution of multimorbidity to postfracture excess mortality highlights the need for more comprehensive approaches in these high-risk patients. The analytical approach applied to fracture could also be used to examine other sentinel health events.

Decreased Mortality and Subsequent Fracture Risk in Patients With a Major and Hip Fracture After the Introduction of a Fracture Liaison Service: A 3-Year Follow-Up Survey.

Fracture liaison services (FLS) are considered to be the most effective organizational approach for secondary fracture prevention. In this study, we evaluated whether FLS care was associated with reduced subsequent fracture and mortality risk over 3 years of follow-up. In total, 8682 consecutive patients aged 50-90 years with a recent fracture were included. Before FLS introduction, regular fracture treatment procedures were followed (pre-FLS). After FLS introduction, patients were invited to the FLS and FLS attenders were assessed for osteoporosis, prevalent vertebral fractures, metabolic bone disorders, medication use, and fall risk, and treatment for fracture prevention was initiated according to Dutch guidelines. All fractures were radiographically confirmed and categorized into major/hip (pelvis, proximal humerus or tibia, vertebral, multiple rib, distal femur) and non-major/non-hip (all other fractures). Mortality risk was examined using age and sex adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. For subsequent fracture risk, Cox proportional hazard models were adjusted for age, sex, and competing mortality risk (subdistribution hazard [SHR] approach). The pre-FLS group consisted of 2530 patients (72% women), of whom 1188 (46.9%) had major/hip index fractures, the post-FLS group consisted of 6152 patients (69% women), of whom 2973 (48.3%) had major/hip index fractures. In patients with a non-major/non-hip fracture there was no difference in subsequent non-major/non-hip fracture risk or mortality between pre-FLS and post-FLS. In patients with a major/hip index fracture, mortality risk was lower post-FLS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.96) and subsequent major/hip fracture risk was lower in the first 360 days after index fracture post-FLS compared to pre-FLS (SHR 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52-0.87). In conclusion, FLS care was associated with a lower mortality risk in the first 3 years and a lower subsequent major/hip fracture risk in the first year in patients with a major/hip index fracture but not in patients with a non-major/non-hip fracture. © 2022 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in Individuals with Diabetes: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

Diabetes increases fracture and falls risks. We evaluated the performance of the Garvan fracture risk calculator (FRC) in individuals with versus without diabetes. Using the population-based Manitoba bone mineral density (BMD) registry, we identified individuals aged 50-95 years undergoing baseline BMD assessment from 1 September 2012, onwards with diabetes and self-reported falls in the prior 12 months. Five-year Garvan FRC predictions were generated from clinical risk factors, with and without femoral neck BMD. We identified non-traumatic osteoporotic fractures (OF) and hip fractures (HF) from population-based data to 31 March 2018. Fracture risk stratification was assessed from area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC). Cox regression analysis was performed to examine the effect of diabetes on fractures, adjusted for Garvan FRC predictions. The study population consisted of 2618 women with and 14,064 without diabetes, and 636 and 2201 men with and without the same, respectively. The Garvan FRC provided significant OF and HF risk stratification in women with diabetes, similar to those without diabetes. Analyses of OF in men were limited by smaller numbers; no significant difference was evident by diabetes status. Cox regression showed that OF risk was 23% greater in women with diabetes adjusted for Garvan FRC including BMD (hazard ratio [HR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.49), suggesting it slightly underestimated risk; a non-significant increase in diabetes-related HF risk was noted (HR 1.37, 95% CI 0.88-2.15). Garvan FRC shows similar fracture risk stratification in individuals with versus without diabetes, but may underestimate this risk.

Cognitive decline is associated with an accelerated rate of bone loss and increased fracture risk in women: a prospective study from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study.

Cognitive decline and osteoporosis often coexist and some evidence suggests a causal link. However, there are no data on the longitudinal relationship between cognitive decline, bone loss and fracture risk, independent of aging. This study aimed to determine the association between: (i) cognitive decline and bone loss; and (ii) clinically significant cognitive decline (≥3 points) on Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) over the first 5 years and subsequent fracture risk over the following 10 years. A total of 1741 women and 620 men aged ≥65 years from the population-based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study were followed from 1997 to 2013. Association between cognitive decline and (i) bone loss was estimated using mixed-effects models; and (ii) fracture risk was estimated using adjusted Cox models. Over 95% of participants had normal cognition at baseline (MMSE ≥ 24). The annual % change in MMSE was similar for both genders (women -0.33, interquartile range [IQR] -0.70 to +0.00; and men -0.34, IQR: -0.99 to 0.01). After multivariable adjustment, cognitive decline was associated with bone loss in women (6.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.2% to 9.9% for each percent decline in MMSE from baseline) but not men. Approximately 13% of participants experienced significant cognitive decline by year 5. In women, fracture risk was increased significantly (multivariable hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.34). There were too few men to analyze. There was a significant association between cognitive decline and both bone loss and fracture risk, independent of aging, in women. Further studies are needed to determine mechanisms that link these common conditions. © 2021 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Osteocyte transcriptome mapping identifies a molecular landscape controlling skeletal homeostasis and susceptibility to skeletal disease.

Osteocytes are master regulators of the skeleton. We mapped the transcriptome of osteocytes from different skeletal sites, across age and sexes in mice to reveal genes and molecular programs that control this complex cellular-network. We define an osteocyte transcriptome signature of 1239 genes that distinguishes osteocytes from other cells. 77% have no previously known role in the skeleton and are enriched for genes regulating neuronal network formation, suggesting this programme is important in osteocyte communication. We evaluated 19 skeletal parameters in 733 knockout mouse lines and reveal 26 osteocyte transcriptome signature genes that control bone structure and function. We showed osteocyte transcriptome signature genes are enriched for human orthologs that cause monogenic skeletal disorders (P = 2.4 × 10-22) and are associated with the polygenic diseases osteoporosis (P = 1.8 × 10-13) and osteoarthritis (P = 1.6 × 10-7). Thus, we reveal the molecular landscape that regulates osteocyte network formation and function and establish the importance of osteocytes in human skeletal disease.

Epidemiological transition to mortality and refracture following an initial fracture.

This study sought to redefine the concept of fracture risk that includes refracture and mortality, and to transform the risk into "skeletal age". We analysed data obtained from 3521 women and men aged 60 years and older, whose fracture incidence, mortality, and bone mineral density (BMD) have been monitored since 1989. During the 20-year follow-up period, among 632 women and 184 men with a first incident fracture, the risk of sustaining a second fracture was higher in women (36%) than in men (22%), but mortality risk was higher in men (41%) than in women (25%). The increased risk of mortality was not only present with an initial fracture, but was accelerated with refractures. Key predictors of post-fracture mortality were male gender (hazard ratio [HR] 2.4; 95% CI, 1.79-3.21), advancing age (HR 1.67; 1.53-1.83), and lower femoral neck BMD (HR 1.16; 1.01-1.33). A 70-year-old man with a fracture is predicted to have a skeletal age of 75. These results were incorporated into a prediction model to aid patient-doctor discussion about fracture vulnerability and treatment decisions.

Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and gastric sleeve surgery result in long term bone loss.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about the long-term skeletal impact of bariatric procedures, particularly the increasingly commonly performed gastric sleeve surgery (GS). We examined bone density (BMD) change following three types of bariatric surgery Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), GS and laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB), compared with diet, over 36 months. METHODS: Non-randomized, prospective study of participants with severe obesity (n = 52), undergoing weight-loss interventions: RYGB (n = 7), GS (n = 21), LAGB (n = 11) and diet (n = 13). Measurements of calciotropic indices, gut hormones (fasting and post prandial) peptide YY (PYY), glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP1) and adiponectin together with dual-X-ray absorptiometry and quantitative computed tomography scans were performed thorough the study. RESULTS: All groups lost weight during the first 12 months. Despite weight stability from 12 to 36 months and supplementation of calcium and vitamin D, there was progressive bone loss at the total hip (TH) over 36 months in RYGB -14% (95% CI: -12, -17) and GS -9% (95% CI: -7, -10). In RYGB forearm BMD also declined over 36 months -9% (95% CI: -6, -12) and LS BMD declined over the first 12 months -7% (95% CI: -3, -12). RYGB and GS groups experienced significantly greater bone loss until 36 months than LAGB and diet groups, which experienced no significant BMD loss. These bone losses remained significant after adjustment for weight loss and age. RYGB and GS procedures resulted in elevated postprandial PYY, adiponectin and bone turnover markers up to 36 months without such changes among LAGB and diet participants. CONCLUSIONS: RYGB and GS but not LAGB resulted in ongoing TH bone loss for three postoperative years. For RYGB, bone loss was also observed at LS and non-weight-bearing forearms. These BMD changes were independent of weight and age differences. We, therefore, recommend close monitoring of bone health following RYGB and GS surgeries.

Post-GWAS Polygenic Risk Score: Utility and Challenges.

Over the past decade, through genome-wide association studies, more than 300 genetic variants have been identified to be associated with either BMD or fracture risk. These genetic variants are common in the general population, but they exert small to modest effects on BMD, suggesting that the utility of any single variant is limited. However, a combination of effect sizes from multiple variants in the form of the polygenic risk score (PRS) can provide a useful indicator of fracture risk beyond that obtained by conventional clinical risk factors. In this perspective, we review the progress of genetics of osteoporosis and approaches for creating PRSs, their uses, and caveats. Recent studies support the idea that the PRS, when integrated into existing fracture prediction models, can help clinicians and patients alike to better assess the fracture risk for an individual, and raise the possibility of precision risk assessment. © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

SEVERE HYPERTRIGLYCERIDEMIA ASSOCIATED WITH EVEROLIMUS TREATMENT AFTER HEART TRANSPLANTATION.

OBJECTIVE: Everolimus, a mammalian target-ofrapamycin (mTOR) inhibitor, is increasingly used post-transplantation due to favorable effects on renal function and malignancy risk when compared to other immunosuppressive treatments such as calcineurin inhibitors. However, it can confer adverse effects such as dyslipidemia, which is not underpinned by any long-term screening and management of dyslipidemia in heart transplant recipients treated with everolimus. METHODS: We report a case of severe hypertriglyceridemia which developed after commencement of everolimus in a heart transplant recipient with a background of Dunnigan-type familial partial lipodystrophy. RESULTS: The patient is a 36-year-old woman who underwent heart transplantation for dilated cardiomyopathy. About 11 weeks following commencement of everolimus as part of her antirejection medication regime, serum triglyceride level concentration peaked at 5,093 mg/dL (normal, 0.0 to 177.2 mg/dL). There were no clinical complications with triglycerides at this elevated level and it improved substantially following cessation of everolimus and initiation of a high dose intravenous insulin-dextrose infusion. CONCLUSION: This case highlights dyslipidemia as a potential complication of everolimus treatment and that appropriate screening is important as lipid lowering medication can effectively control levels and minimize adverse outcomes.

Decline in Muscle Strength and Performance Predicts Fracture Risk in Elderly Women and Men.

CONTEXT: Muscle strength and performance are associated with fractures. However, the contribution of their rate of decline is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To assess the independent contribution of the rate of decline in muscle strength and performance to fracture risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling women (n = 811) and men (n = 440) aged 60 years or older from the prospective Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study followed from 2000 to 2018 for incident fracture. Clinical data, appendicular lean mass/height2 (ht)2, bone mineral density, quadricep strength/ht (QS), timed get-up-and-go (TGUG), 5 times repeated sit-to-stand (5xSTS), and gait speed (GS) measured biennially. Rates of decline in muscle parameters were calculated using ordinary least squares regression and fracture risk was assessed using Cox's models. MAIN OUTCOME: Incident low-trauma fracture ascertained by x-ray report. RESULTS: Apart from lean mass in women, all muscle parameters declined over time. Greater rates of decline in physical performance were associated with increased fracture risk in women (Hazard ratios [HRs] ranging from 2.1 (95% CI: 1.5-2.9) for GS to 2.7 (95% CI: 1.9-3.6) for 5xSTS, while in men only the decline in GS was associated with fracture risk (HR: 3.4 [95% CI: 1.8-6.3]). Baseline performance and strength were also associated with increased fracture risk in men (HRs ranging from 1.8 (95% CI: 1.1-3.0) for QS to 2.5 (95% CI: 1.5-4.1) for TGUG, but not in women. CONCLUSION: Rate of decline in physical performance in both genders, and baseline strength and performance in men, contributed independently to fracture risk. Sit-to-stand and GS were the tests most consistently associated with fractures. Further studies are required to determine whether muscle strength and/or performance improve the predictive accuracy of fracture prediction models.

A Risk Assessment Tool for Predicting Fragility Fractures and Mortality in the Elderly.

Existing fracture risk assessment tools are not designed to predict fracture-associated consequences, possibly contributing to the current undermanagement of fragility fractures worldwide. We aimed to develop a risk assessment tool for predicting the conceptual risk of fragility fractures and its consequences. The study involved 8965 people aged ≥60 years from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study and the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study. Incident fracture was identified from X-ray reports and questionnaires, and death was ascertained though contact with a family member or obituary review. We used a multistate model to quantify the effects of the predictors on the transition risks to an initial and subsequent incident fracture and mortality, accounting for their complex interrelationships, confounding effects, and death as a competing risk. There were 2364 initial fractures, 755 subsequent fractures, and 3300 deaths during a median follow-up of 13 years (interquartile range [IQR] 7-15). The prediction model included sex, age, bone mineral density, history of falls within 12 previous months, prior fracture after the age of 50 years, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, chronic pulmonary diseases, hypertension, and cancer. The model accurately predicted fragility fractures up to 11 years of follow-up and post-fracture mortality up to 9 years, ranging from 7 years after hip fractures to 15 years after non-hip fractures. For example, a 70-year-old woman with a T-score of -1.5 and without other risk factors would have 10% chance of sustaining a fracture and an 8% risk of dying in 5 years. However, after an initial fracture, her risk of sustaining another fracture or dying doubles to 33%, ranging from 26% after a distal to 42% post hip fracture. A robust statistical technique was used to develop a prediction model for individualization of progression to fracture and its consequences, facilitating informed decision making about risk and thus treatment for individuals with different risk profiles. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Establishing baseline absolute risk of subsequent fracture among adults presenting to hospital with a minimal-trauma-fracture.

BACKGROUND: One in three women and one in five men are expected to experience a minimal-trauma-fracture after the age of 50-years, which increases the risk of subsequent fracture. Importantly, timely diagnosis and optimal treatment in the form of a fracture liaison service (FLS), has been shown to reduce this risk of a subsequent fracture. However, baseline risk of subsequent fracture among this group of FLS patients has not been well described. Therefore, this study aims to estimate absolute risk of subsequent fracture, among women and men aged 50-years or more, presenting to hospital with a minimal-trauma-fracture. METHODS: Women and men aged 50-years or more with a minimal-trauma-fracture, presenting to hospitals across the South Western Sydney Local Health District between January 2003 and December 2017 were followed to identify subsequent fracture presentations to hospital. Absolute risk of subsequent fracture was estimated, by taking into account the competing risk of death. RESULTS: Between January 2003 and December 2017-15,088 patients presented to the emergency departments of the five hospitals in the SWSLHD (11,149, women [74%]), with minimal-trauma-fractures. Subsequent fractures identified during the follow-up period (median = 4.5 years [IQR, 1.6-8.2]), occurred in 2024 (13%) patients. Death during the initial hospital stay, or during a subsequent hospital visit was recorded among 1646 patients (11%). Women were observed to have 7.1% risk of subsequent fracture after 1-year, following an initial fracture; and, the risk of subsequent fracture after 1-year was 6.2% for men. After 5-years the rate among women was 13.7, and 11.3% for men, respectively. Cumulative risk of subsequent fracture when initial fractures were classified as being at proximal or distal sites are also presented. CONCLUSION: This study has estimated the baseline risk of subsequent fracture among women and men presenting to hospital with minimal trauma fractures. Importantly, this information can be used to communicate risk to patients deciding to attend an osteoporosis refracture prevention clinic, and highlight the need for screening, and initial of treatment when indicated, once a minimal-trauma-fracture has occurred.

Koreans Do Not Have Higher Percent Body Fat than Australians: Implication for the Diagnosis of Obesity in Asians.

OBJECTIVE: It has been assumed that, for a given BMI, Asians have higher percent body fat (PBF) than Caucasians. As a result, it has been suggested that the BMI threshold for diagnosing obesity in Asians be lowered to less than 30 kg/m2 . This study sought to compare PBF between Koreans and Australians. METHODS: Whole-body fat mass and PBF were measured in 1,211 Koreans and 1,006 Australians using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (Lunar Prodigy; GE Healthcare, Madison, Wisconsin). The two groups were then matched for age and BMI by the propensity score method. RESULTS: For a given age and BMI, Koreans had lower PBF than Australians, and the difference was statistically significant in women (mean difference: -2.13%; 95% CI: -2.61% to -1.65%) but not in men (difference: -0.54%; 95% CI: -1.22% to 0.14%). Matched-pair analysis (423 pairs of women and 208 pairs of men) also showed that Korean women had statistically lower PBF than their Australian counterparts (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In individuals aged 60 years and older, Koreans do not have higher PBF than Australians after adjusting for BMI. These results suggest that there is no evidence for lowering the BMI threshold for the diagnosis of obesity in elderly Koreans.