Changing epidemiology of COVID-19: potential future impact on vaccines and vaccination strategies.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 was an unprecedented challenge worldwide; however, disease epidemiology has evolved, and COVID-19 no longer constitutes a public health emergency of international concern. Nonetheless, COVID-19 remains a global threat and uncertainties remain, including definition of the end of the pandemic and transition to endemicity, and understanding true rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection/transmission. AREAS COVERED: Six international experts convened (April 2023) to interpret changing COVID-19 epidemiology and public health challenges. We report the panel's recommendations and knowledge gaps in COVID-19 epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and future vaccination strategies, informed by peer-reviewed publications, surveillance data, health authority assessments, and clinical experience. EXPERT OPINION: High population SARS-CoV-2 immunity indicates the likely end to the pandemic's acute phase. Continued emergence of variants/sublineages that can evade the vaccine-induced antibody response are likely, but widespread immunity reduces the risk of disease severity. Continued surveillance is required to capture transition to endemicity, seasonality, and emergence of novel variants/sublineages, to inform future vaccination strategies. COVID-19 vaccination should be integrated into routine vaccination programs throughout life. Co-circulation with other respiratory viruses should be monitored to avoid a combined peak, which could overrun healthcare systems. Effective, combined vaccines and improved education may help overcome vaccine hesitancy/booster fatigue and increase vaccination uptake.

Cross-sectional study of influenza trends and costs in Malaysia between 2016 and 2018.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: While influenza circulates year-round in Malaysia, research data on its incidence is scarce. Yet, this information is vital to the improvement of public health through evidence-based policies. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to determine the trends and financial costs of influenza. METHODS: Data for the years 2016 through 2018 were gathered retrospectively from several sources. These were existing Ministry of Health (MOH) influenza sentinel sites data, two teaching hospitals, and two private medical institutions in the Klang Valley, Malaysia. Expert consensus determined the final estimates of burden for laboratory-confirmed influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). Economic burden was estimated separately using secondary data supplemented by MOH casemix costing. RESULTS: Altogether, data for 11,652 cases of ILI and 5,764 cases of SARI were extracted. The influenza B subtype was found to be predominant in 2016, while influenza A was more prevalent in 2017 and 2018. The distribution timeline revealed that the highest frequency of cases occurred in March and April of all three years. The costs of influenza amounted to MYR 310.9 million over the full three-year period. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides valuable insights into the dynamic landscape of influenza in Malaysia. The findings reveal a consistent year-round presence of influenza with irregular seasonal peaks, including a notable influenza A epidemic in 2017 and consistent surges in influenza B incidence during March across three years. These findings underscore the significance of continuous monitoring influenza subtypes for informed healthcare strategies as well as advocate for the integration of influenza vaccination into Malaysia's national immunization program, enhancing overall pandemic preparedness.

Risk of long COVID main symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

This review aimed to summarise the relative risk (RR) of the main symptoms of long COVID in people infected with SARS-CoV-2 compared to uninfected controls, as well as the difference in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) after infection. MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, NLM-LitCovid, WHO-COVID-19, arXiv and Europe-PMC were searched up to 23rd March 2022. Studies reporting risk (four or more weeks after infection) of fatigue, shortness of breath, and cognitive dysfunction, as well as comparative HRQoL outcomes, were included. Pairwise random-effects meta-analyses were performed to pool risks of individual symptoms. Thirty-three studies were identified; twenty studies reporting symptom risks were included in the meta-analyses. Overall, infection with SARS-CoV-2 carried significantly higher risk of fatigue (RR 1.72, 95% confidence intervals [CIs] 1.41, 2.10), shortness of breath (RR 2.60, 95% CIs 1.96, 3.44), memory difficulties (RR 2.53, 95% CIs 1.30, 4.93), and concentration difficulties (RR 2.14, 95% CIs 1.25, 3.67). Quality of life findings were varied and comparisons between studies were challenging due to different HRQoL instruments used and study heterogeneity, although studies indicated that severe hospitalised COVID is associated with a significantly poorer HRQoL after infection. These risks are likely to constantly change as vaccines, reinfections, and new variants alter global immunity.

The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on global influenza surveillance: Insights from 18 National Influenza Centers based on a survey conducted between November 2021 and March 2022.

Background: National Influenza Centers (NICs) have played a crucial role in the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2. The FluCov project, covering 22 countries, was initiated to monitor the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on influenza activity. Methods: This project consisted of an epidemiological bulletin and NIC survey. The survey, designed to assess the impact of the pandemic on the influenza surveillance system, was shared with 36 NICs located across 22 countries. NICs were invited to reply between November 2021 and March 2022. Results: We received 18 responses from NICs in 14 countries. Most NICs (76%) indicated that the number of samples tested for influenza decreased. Yet, many NICs (60%) were able to increase their laboratory testing capacity and the "robustness" (e.g., number of sentinel sites) (59%) of their surveillance systems. In addition, sample sources (e.g., hospital or outpatient setting) shifted. All NICs reported a higher burden of work following the onset of the pandemic, with some NICs hiring additional staff or partial outsourcing to other institutes or departments. Many NICs anticipate the future integration of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance into the existing respiratory surveillance system. Discussion: The survey shows the profound impact of SARS-CoV-2 on national influenza surveillance in the first 27 months of the pandemic. Surveillance activities were temporarily disrupted, whilst priority was given to SARS-CoV-2. However, most NICs have shown rapid adaptive capacity underlining the importance of strong national influenza surveillance systems. These developments have the potential to benefit global respiratory surveillance in the years to come; however, questions about sustainability remain.

Durability of Vaccine-Induced and Natural Immunity Against COVID-19: A Narrative Review.

Vaccines developed against SARS-CoV-2 have proven to be highly effective in preventing symptomatic infection. Similarly, prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 has been shown to provide substantial protection against reinfection. However, it has become apparent that the protection provided to an individual after either vaccination or infection wanes over time. Waning protection is driven by both waning immunity over time since vaccination or initial infection, and the evolution of new variants of SARS-CoV-2. Both antibody and T/B-cells levels have been investigated as potential correlates of protection post-vaccination or post-infection. The activity of antibodies and T/B-cells provide some potential insight into the underlying causes of waning protection. This review seeks to summarise what is currently known about the waning of protection provided by both vaccination and/or prior infection, as well as the current information on the respective antibody and T/B-cell responses.

Hospital admissions with influenza and impact of age and comorbidities on severe clinical outcomes in Brazil and Mexico.

BACKGROUND: The risk of hospitalization or death after influenza infection is higher at the extremes of age and in individuals with comorbidities. We estimated the number of hospitalizations with influenza and characterized the cumulative risk of comorbidities and age on severe outcomes in Mexico and Brazil. METHODS: We used national hospital discharge data from Brazil (SIH/SUS) from 2010-2018 and Mexico (SAEH) from 2010-2017 to estimate the number of influenza admissions using ICD-10 discharge codes, stratified by age (0-4, 5-17, 18-49, 50-64, and ≥65 years). Duration of hospital stay, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and in-hospital case fatality rates (CFRs) defined the severe outcomes. Rates were compared between patients with or without pre-specified comorbidities and by age. RESULTS: A total of 327,572 admissions with influenza were recorded in Brazil and 20,613 in Mexico, with peaks period most years. In Brazil, the median hospital stay duration was 3.0 days (interquartile range, 2.0-5.0), ICU admission rate was 3.3% (95% CI, 3.2-3.3%), and in-hospital CFR was 4.6% (95% CI, 4.5-4.7). In Mexico, the median duration of stay was 5.0 days (interquartile range, 3.0-7.0), ICU admission rate was 1.8% (95% CI, 1.6-2.0%), and in-hospital CFR was 6.9% (95% CI, 6.5-7.2). In Brazil, ICU admission and in-hospital CFR were higher in adults aged ≥50 years and increased in the presence of comorbidities, especially cardiovascular disease. In Mexico, comorbidities increased the risk of ICU admission by 1.9 (95% CI, 1.0-3.5) and in-hospital CFR by 13.9 (95% CI, 8.4-22.9) in children 0-4 years. CONCLUSION: The SIH/SUS and SAEH databases can be used to estimate hospital admissions with influenza, and the disease severity. Age and comorbidities, especially cardiovascular disease, are cumulatively associated with more severe outcomes, with differences between countries. This association should be further analyzed in prospective surveillance studies designed to support influenza vaccination strategy decisions.

Dearth of influenza among older adults admitted with respiratory symptoms in Malaysia during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in 2021.

Introduction: Influenza is a common respiratory virus which leads to over 400,000 annual deaths globally. Mortality from influenza is highest among those aged 75 years and over living in Africa and Southeast Asia. Objective: To determine the burden of influenza among older adults presenting to public hospitals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods: This multi-center, prospective, observational study recruited individuals aged 65 years and over who presented to four Malaysian hospitals with SARI from 1 January to 31 December 2021. Those with prior confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection were excluded. SARS-CoV-2 was detected through real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with routine diagnostic kits. Influenza A, influenza B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) viruses were detected with Xpress Flu/RSV kits using the GeneXpert rapid real-time PCR system (Cepheid, USA). Results: Samples were obtained from 512 participants, comprising 296 (57.8%) men and 216 (42.2%) women, with a mean age (SD) of 74.0 (7.1) years. Inpatient death occurred in 48 (9.6%) individuals. Significant differences existed in age, ethnicity, and comorbidities across study sites. One (0.2%) case of influenza A, two (0.4%) cases of RSV and 63 (12.5%) cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were detected over the 1-year period. Cases of COVID-19 mirrored national trends derived from open source data, while the dearth of influenza cases mirrored national and global Flunet figures. Conclusion: Our observational study conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic detected only one case of influenza, alongside a high SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate. The poor uptake of influenza vaccination nationally, worsened by the recent pandemic restrictions, could lead to waning immunity from the absence of seasonal exposure. Potentially deadly outbreaks may then occur when lockdown and infection control measures are eventually removed.

Experience from five Asia-Pacific countries during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: Mitigation strategies and epidemiology outcomes.

BACKGROUND: With no vaccines or specific treatments, non-pharmaceutical interventions are the only tools for controlling the human-to-human transmission of the COVID-19 disease, which appeared in Wuhan, China last December and has spread globally since. Here we describe and compare the first-wave mitigation strategies and epidemiology of five Asia-Pacific countries that responded rapidly to the epidemic. METHODS: From January to April 2020, mitigation measures and epidemiological data for Singapore, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong were screened from official local government websites and a review of investigational studies was conducted. Daily case reports and mitigation measures information were extracted. Epidemiological estimates were calculated and compared between countries. RESULTS: All five countries combined measures, focusing on contact tracing, testing, isolation efforts and healthcare management. Epidemiological data varied temporally and geographically: incubation period ranged 3.9-7.1 days, effective reproduction number at time t (Rt) ranged 0.48-1.5, with intensive care admissions 1-3% of hospitalised patients, and case fatality rates were 0.1-3%. Extrinsic estimates to the virus were lower than global estimates. CONCLUSION: Implemented mitigation strategies in these countries allowed a rapid and successful control or delay of the first COVID-19 pandemic wave. These are valuable examples to inform subsequent waves.

Comparison of influenza surveillance systems in Australia, China, Malaysia and expert recommendations for influenza control.

BACKGROUND: The Western Pacific Region (WPR) is exposed each year to seasonal influenza and is often the source of new influenza virus variants and novel pathogen emergence. National influenza surveillance systems play a critical role in detecting emerging viruses, monitoring influenza epidemics, improving public disease awareness and promoting pandemic preparedness, but vary widely across WPR countries. The aim of this study is to improve existing influenza surveillance systems by systematically comparing selected WPR influenza surveillance systems. METHODS: Three national influenza surveillance systems with different levels of development (Australia, China and Malaysia) were compared and their adherence to World Health Organization (WHO) guidance was evaluated using a structured framework previously tested in several European countries consisting of seven surveillance sub-systems, 19 comparable outcomes and five evaluation criteria. Based on the results, experts from the Asia-Pacific Alliance for the Control of Influenza (APACI) issued recommendations for the improvement of existing surveillance systems. RESULTS: Australia demonstrated the broadest scope of influenza surveillance followed by China and Malaysia. In Australia, surveillance tools covered all sub-systems. In China, surveillance did not cover non-medically attended respiratory events, primary care consultations, and excess mortality modelling. In Malaysia, surveillance consisted of primary care and hospital sentinel schemes. There were disparities between the countries across the 5 evaluation criteria, particularly regarding data granularity from health authorities, information on data representativeness, and data communication, especially the absence of publicly available influenza epidemiological reports in Malaysia. This dual approach describing the scope of surveillance and evaluating the adherence to WHO guidance enabled APACI experts to make a number of recommendations for each country that included but were not limited to introducing new surveillance tools, broadening the use of specific existing surveillance tools, collecting and sharing data on virus characteristics, developing immunization status registries, and improving public health communication. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza monitoring in Australia, China, and Malaysia could benefit from the expansion of existing surveillance sentinel schemes, the broadened use of laboratory confirmation and the introduction of excess-mortality modelling. The results from the evaluation can be used as a basis to support expert recommendations and to enhance influenza surveillance capabilities.

Impact of COVID-19 on routine immunisation in South-East Asia and Western Pacific: Disruptions and solutions.

BACKGROUND: Data on COVID-19-induced disruption to routine vaccinations in the South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions (SEAR/WPR) have been sparse. This study aimed to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on routine vaccinations by country, antigen, and sector (public or private), up to 1 June 2020, and to identify the reasons for disruption and possible solutions. METHODS: Sanofi Pasteur teams from 19 countries in SEAR/WPR completed a structured questionnaire reporting on COVID-19 disruptions for 13-19 routinely delivered antigens per country, based on sales data, government reports, and regular physician interactions. Data were analysed descriptively, disruption causes ranked, and solutions evaluated using a modified public health best practices framework. FINDINGS: 95% (18/19) of countries reported vaccination disruption. When stratified by country, a median of 91% (interquartile range 77-94) of antigens were impacted. Infancy and school-entry age vaccinations were most impacted. Both public and private sector healthcare providers experienced disruptions. Vaccination rates had not recovered for 39% of impacted antigens by 1 June 2020. Fear of infection, movement/travel restrictions, and limited healthcare access were the highest-ranked reasons for disruption. Highest-scoring solutions were separating vaccination groups from unwell patients, non-traditional vaccination venues, virtual engagement, and social media campaigns. Many of these solutions were under-utilised. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19-induced disruption of routine vaccination was more widespread than previously reported. Adaptable solutions were identified which could be implemented in SEAR/WPR and elsewhere. Governments and private providers need to act urgently to improve coverage rates and plan for future waves of the pandemic, to avoid a resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases. FUNDING: Sanofi Pasteur.

Assessment of the benefits of seasonal influenza vaccination: Elements of a framework to interpret estimates of vaccine effectiveness and support robust decision-making and communication.

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses confirm that influenza vaccination reduces the risk of influenza illness by between about 40% and 60% in seasons when circulating influenza stains are well matched to vaccine strains. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) estimates, however, are often discordant and a source of confusion for decision makers. IVE assessments are increasingly publicized and are often used by policy makers to make decisions about the value of seasonal influenza vaccination. But there is limited guidance on how IVE should be interpreted or used to inform policy. There are several limitations to the use of IVE for decision-making: (a) IVE studies have methodological issues that often complicate the interpretation of their value; and (b) the full impact of vaccination will almost always be greater than the impact assessed by a point estimate of IVE in specific populations or settings. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of study methodologies and the fundamental limitations of IVE estimates is important for the accuracy of interpretations and support of policy makers' decisions. Here, we review a comprehensive set of issues that need to be considered when interpreting IVE and determining the full benefits of influenza vaccination. We propose that published IVE values should be assessed using an evaluative framework that includes influenza-specific outcomes, types of VE study design, and confounders, among other factors. Better interpretation of IVE will improve the broader assessment of the value of influenza vaccination and ultimately optimize the public health benefits in seasonal influenza vaccination.

Incidence of hospital-acquired influenza in adults: A prospective surveillance study from 2004 to 2017 in a French tertiary care hospital.

BACKGROUND: Hospital-acquired influenza potentially leads to significant morbidity and mortality in already vulnerable patients, but its overall burden is not fully understood. We undertook this study to estimate the incidence and trends of hospital-acquired laboratory-confirmed influenza among adults, and to compare clinical characteristics between hospital-acquired and community-acquired influenza cases. METHODS: This was a prospective surveillance study over 11 years of adults with influenza-like-illness (ILI) hospitalized in surgery, medicine and geriatric wards in a tertiary acute-care hospital in Lyon, France. Nasal swabs were systematically collected from those with ILI and tested for influenza by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction at the national influenza reference laboratory (Lyon, France). RESULTS: Influenza was laboratory confirmed at a rate of 1 in 13 patients who developed ILI during their hospitalization. Having an underlying disease was an important characteristic of hospital-acquired ILI cases. Cardiovascular disease was the most frequent underlying condition in both influenza-positive and influenza-negative patients. Complications were more frequent for influenza-positive than influenza-negative patients. The influenza incidence rate was highest in the geriatric ward and increased over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital-acquired influenza poses a significant risk to already vulnerable patients. Longitudinal surveillance data are essential to support better recognition and monitoring of viral infections in hospitals.

Epidemiology and burden of influenza in healthy children aged 6 to 35 months: analysis of data from the placebo arm of a phase III efficacy trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite World Health Organization recommendations, in many countries young children are not targeted for influenza vaccination. To help inform influenza vaccination policy, we examined the occurrence and burden of influenza in healthy children aged 6 to 35 months using data from a recent phase III placebo-controlled influenza vaccine trial conducted in countries in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. METHODS: This was an analysis of data from participants included in the placebo arm of a phase III clinical trial in healthy children aged 6 to 35 months (EudraCT no. 2013-001231-51). Included children had never been vaccinated for influenza and were observed for one influenza season. Outcome measures included the occurrence of influenza-like illness (ILI), laboratory-confirmed influenza, virus types/subtypes, severe symptoms and complications of confirmed influenza, and healthcare use associated with confirmed influenza. RESULTS: Data from 2210 participants were analysed. ILI was reported for 811 participants (36.7%). Of these, 255 participants (31.4%) had 263 virologically confirmed episodes of influenza. The overall influenza attack rate was 11.5%. The most common influenza virus detected was A(H3N2) (40.7%), followed by B/Yamagata (23.6%), A(H1N1) (18.6%), and B/Victoria (8.0%). Grade 3 fever was reported in 24.3% of confirmed episodes, acute lower respiratory infection in 8.7%, acute otitis media in 6.1%, and pneumonia in 1.9%. In most influenza episodes (93.2%), antipyretics, analgesics, or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were taken. Antibiotics were prescribed for 41.4% of influenza episodes. More than half of the influenza episodes (57.0%) resulted in outpatient visits. Influenza resulted in overnight hospitalisation in 1.1% of episodes. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza is associated with a significant burden of disease in healthy children. This analysis also revealed that antibiotics continue to be frequently used for young children with influenza. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT no. 2013-001231-51 .

Epidemiology and timing of seasonal influenza epidemics in the Asia-Pacific region, 2010-2017: implications for influenza vaccination programs.

BACKGROUND: Description of the epidemiology of influenza is needed to inform influenza vaccination policy. Here we examined influenza virus circulation in countries in the Asia-Pacific region and compared the timing of seasonal epidemics with the timing of influenza vaccination. METHODS: Data were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) FluNet database for 2010-2017 for countries in the WHO Asia-Pacific region. Data from countries covering ≥5 consecutive seasons and ≥ 100 influenza positive cases per year were included. Median proportions of cases for each influenza virus type were calculated by country and season. The timing and amplitude of the epidemic peaks were determined by Fourier decomposition. Vaccination timing was considered appropriate for each country if it was recommended ≤4 months before the primary peak of influenza circulation. RESULTS: Seven hundred eleven thousand seven hundred thirty-four influenza cases were included from 19 countries. Peak circulation coincided with the winter seasons in most countries, although patterns were less clear in some countries in the inter-tropical area due to substantial secondary peaks. Influenza A/H3N2 dominated overall, but proportions of A and B strains varied by year and by country. Influenza B represented 31.4% of all cases. The WHO-recommended timing for influenza vaccination was appropriate in 12 countries. Vaccination timing recommendations were considered inappropriate in Laos, Cambodia, and Thailand, and were inconclusive for India, Sri Lanka, Singapore, and Vietnam due to unclear seasonality of influenza virus circulation. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza virus circulation varied considerably across the Asia-Pacific region with an unusually high burden of influenza B. The recommended timing for vaccination was appropriate in most countries, except for several countries with unclear seasonality, mainly located in the inter-tropical area.

Clinical characteristics and severity of influenza infections by virus type, subtype, and lineage: A systematic literature review.

AIM: Studies carried out in the early 2000s found that the number of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths was highest in seasons dominated by A(H3N2), suggesting that the clinical presentation and severity of influenza may differ across virus types, subtypes, and lineages. We aimed to review the studies that examined this hypothesis. METHOD: We conducted a literature review of studies published until January 2017 that compared the clinical presentation, disease severity, and case-fatality ratio of influenza patients infected with different virus types (A, B), subtypes (pre-pandemic A(H1N1), A(H1N1)p, A(H3N2)), and lineages (Victoria, Yamagata). RESULTS: The literature search resulted in over 1700 entries: After applying in- and exclusion criteria, 47 studies were included in the literature review. Studies showed a wide diversity in setting and populations. Only a minority of studies provided results adjusted by patient's age and other potential confounders. There were very few differences in the clinical presentation of patients infected with different influenza viruses. We found weak evidence that the A(H1N1)p subtype in the post-pandemic period was more often associated with secondary bacterial pneumonia, ICU admission, and death, than the other influenza virus (sub)types. CONCLUSION: Contrary to what is commonly assumed, the causal virus subtype does not seem to be a major determinant of clinical presentation and severity of influenza illness. However, drawing conclusions was made difficult by the low comparability and methodological shortcomings of included studies, and more well-designed studies are warranted.

Epidemiology of seasonal influenza in the Middle East and North Africa regions, 2010-2016: Circulating influenza A and B viruses and spatial timing of epidemics.

BACKGROUND: There is a limited knowledge regarding the epidemiology of influenza in Middle East and North Africa. OBJECTIVES: We described the patterns of influenza circulation and the timing of seasonal epidemics in countries of Middle East and North Africa. METHODS: We used virological surveillance data for 2010-2016 from the WHO FluNet database. In each country, we calculated the median proportion of cases that were caused by each virus type and subtype; determined the timing and amplitude of the primary and secondary peaks; and used linear regression models to test for spatial trends in the timing of epidemics. RESULTS: We included 70 532 influenza cases from seventeen countries. Influenza A and B accounted for a median 76.5% and 23.5% of cases in a season and were the dominant type in 86.8% and 13.2% of seasons. The proportion of influenza A cases that were subtyped was 85.9%, while only 4.4% of influenza B cases were characterized. For most countries, influenza seasonality was similar to the Northern Hemisphere, with a single large peak between January and March; exceptions were the countries in the Arabian Peninsula and Jordan, all of which showed clear secondary peaks, and some countries had an earlier primary peak (in November-December in Bahrain and Qatar). The direction of the timing of influenza activity was east to west and south to north in 2012-2013 and 2015-2016, and west to east in 2014-2015. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiology of influenza is generally uniform in countries of Middle East and North Africa, with influenza B playing an important role in the seasonal disease burden.

Important changes in the timing of influenza epidemics in the WHO European Region over the past 20 years: virological surveillance 1996 to 2016.

IntroductionThe global epidemiology of many infectious diseases is changing, but little attention has been paid to whether the timing of seasonal influenza epidemics changed in recent years. This study investigated whether the timing of the peak of influenza epidemics has changed in countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region between 1996 and 2016. Methods: Surveillance data were obtained from the WHO FluNet database. For each country and season (July to June of the next year), the peak was defined as the week with the highest 3-week moving average for reported cases. Linear regression models were used to test for temporal trends in the timing of the epidemic peak in each country and to determine whether this differed geographically. Results: More than 600,000 influenza cases were included from 38 countries of the WHO European Region. The timing of the epidemic peak changed according to a longitudinal gradient, occurring progressively later in Western Europe (e.g. by 2.8 days/season in Spain) and progressively earlier in Eastern Europe (e.g. by 3.5 days/season in the Russian Federation). Discussion: These results were confirmed in several sensitivity analyses. Our findings have implications for influenza control and prevention measures in the WHO European Region, for instance for the implementation of influenza vaccination campaigns.

Characteristics of seasonal influenza A and B in Latin America: Influenza surveillance data from ten countries.

INTRODUCTION: The increased availability of influenza surveillance data in recent years justifies an actual and more complete overview of influenza epidemiology in Latin America. We compared the influenza surveillance systems and assessed the epidemiology of influenza A and B, including the spatio-temporal patterns of influenza epidemics, in ten countries and sub-national regions in Latin America. METHODS: We aggregated the data by year and country and characteristics of eighty-two years were analysed. We calculated the median proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases caused by each virus strain, and compared the timing and amplitude of the primary and secondary peaks between countries. RESULTS: 37,087 influenza cases were reported during 2004-2012. Influenza A and B accounted for a median of 79% and, respectively, 21% of cases in a year. The percentage of influenza A cases that were subtyped was 82.5%; for influenza B, 15.6% of cases were characterized. Influenza A and B were dominant in seventy-five (91%) and seven (9%) years, respectively. In half (51%) of the influenza A years, influenza A(H3N2) was dominant, followed by influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 (41%) and pre-pandemic A(H1N1) (8%). The primary peak of influenza activity was in June-September in temperate climate countries, with little or no secondary peak. Tropical climate countries had smaller primary peaks taking place in different months and frequently detectable secondary peaks. CONCLUSIONS: We found that good influenza surveillance data exists in Latin America, although improvements can still be made (e.g. a better characterization of influenza B specimens); that influenza B plays a considerable role in the seasonal influenza burden; and that there is substantial heterogeneity of spatio-temporal patterns of influenza epidemics. To improve the effectiveness of influenza control measures in Latin America, tropical climate countries may need to develop innovative prevention strategies specifically tailored to the spatio-temporal patterns of influenza in this region.

Epidemiology of Hospital Admissions with Influenza during the 2013/2014 Northern Hemisphere Influenza Season: Results from the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network.

BACKGROUND: The Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network was established in 2012 to obtain valid epidemiologic data on hospital admissions with influenza-like illness. Here we describe the epidemiology of admissions with influenza within the Northern Hemisphere sites during the 2013/2014 influenza season, identify risk factors for severe outcomes and complications, and assess the impact of different influenza viruses on clinically relevant outcomes in at-risk populations. METHODS: Eligible consecutive admissions were screened for inclusion at 19 hospitals in Russia, Turkey, China, and Spain using a prospective, active surveillance approach. Patients that fulfilled a common case definition were enrolled and epidemiological data were collected. Risk factors for hospitalization with laboratory-confirmed influenza were identified by multivariable logistic regression. FINDINGS: 5303 of 9507 consecutive admissions were included in the analysis. Of these, 1086 were influenza positive (534 A(H3N2), 362 A(H1N1), 130 B/Yamagata lineage, 3 B/Victoria lineage, 40 untyped A, and 18 untyped B). The risk of hospitalization with influenza (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval]) was elevated for patients with cardiovascular disease (1.63 [1.33-2.02]), asthma (2.25 [1.67-3.03]), immunosuppression (2.25 [1.23-4.11]), renal disease (2.11 [1.48-3.01]), liver disease (1.94 [1.18-3.19], autoimmune disease (2.97 [1.58-5.59]), and pregnancy (3.84 [2.48-5.94]). Patients without comorbidities accounted for 60% of admissions with influenza. The need for intensive care or in-hospital death was not significantly different between patients with or without influenza. Influenza vaccination was associated with a lower risk of confirmed influenza (adjusted odds ratio = 0.61 [0.48-0.77]). CONCLUSIONS: Influenza infection was detected among hospital admissions with and without known risk factors. Pregnancy and underlying comorbidity increased the risk of detecting influenza virus in patients hospitalized with influenza-like illness. Our results support influenza vaccination as a measure for reducing the risk of influenza-associated hospital admission.