TiME OUT: Time-specific machine-learning evaluation to optimize ultramassive transfusion.

BACKGROUND: Ultramassive transfusion (UMT) is a resource-demanding intervention for trauma patients in hemorrhagic shock, and associated mortality rates remains high. Current research has been unable to identify a transfusion ceiling or point where UMT transitions from lifesaving to futility. Furthermore, little consideration has been given to how time-specific patient data points impact decisions with ongoing high-volume resuscitation. Therefore, this study sought to use time-specific machine learning modeling to predict mortality and identify parameters associated with survivability in trauma patients undergoing UMT. METHODS: A retrospective review was conducted at a Level I trauma (2018-2021) and included trauma patients meeting criteria for UMT, defined as ≥20 red blood cell products within 24 hours of admission. Cross-sectional data were obtained from the blood bank and trauma registries, and time-specific data were obtained from the electronic medical record. Time-specific decision-tree models predicating mortality were generated and evaluated using area under the curve. RESULTS: In the 180 patients included, mortality rate was 40.5% at 48 hours and 52.2% overall. The deceased received significantly more blood products with a median of 71.5 total units compared with 55.5 in the survivors ( p < 0.001) and significantly greater rates of packed red blood cells and fresh frozen plasma at each time interval. Time-specific decision-tree models predicted mortality with an accuracy as high as 81%. In the early time intervals, hemodynamic stability, undergoing an emergency department thoracotomy, and injury severity were most predictive of survival, while, in the later intervals, markers of adequate resuscitation such as arterial pH and lactate level became more prominent. CONCLUSION: This study supports that the decision of "when to stop" in UMT resuscitation is not based exclusively on the number of units transfused but rather the complex integration of patient and time-specific data. Machine learning is an effective tool to investigate this concept, and further research is needed to refine and validate these time-specific decision-tree models. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level IV.

Telemental Health Utilization in Commercial Health Insurance Plans in the United States From 2010 Through 2019.

Objective: We sought to characterize patterns of utilization of telemental health among commercially insured individuals over the decade preceding COVID-19.Methods: We developed telemental health service groups from the US PharMetrics Plus database, using diagnostic codes to identify those diagnosed with mental health conditions and procedure codes to capture mental health visits delivered via telehealth sessions. We analyzed 2 indicators of utilization between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2019: (1) the percentage of patients with mental health needs who used telemental health services and (2) the percentage of all mental health services provided via telehealth. We stratified our analyses by year, patient gender, patient age, and geographic region.Results: The proportion of mental health visits delivered via telemental health increased from 0.002% to 0.162% between 2010 and 2019. A larger proportion of males received telemental health services as compared to females; however, the proportion of mental health visits delivered via telehealth was higher for females than for males. Patients aged 18 to 34 years and those in the western US had the highest utilization compared to other age groups and geographic regions.Conclusions: Telemental health utilization comprised a small fraction of overall mental health services and beneficiaries in the IQVIA PharMetrics Plus claims data, but increased over time, with differences documented in utilization based on patient gender, patient age, geographic region, and type of telemental health claim. Evidence from this study may serve as a pre-pandemic baseline for comparison against future evaluations of telehealth expansion policies.

Increasing Utilization of Emergency Department Neuroimaging From 2007 Through 2017.

BACKGROUND. The volume of emergency department (ED) visits and the number of neuroimaging examinations have increased since the start of the century. Little is known about this growth in the commercially insured and Medicare Advantage populations. OBJECTIVE. The purpose of our study was to evaluate changing ED utilization of neuroimaging from 2007 through 2017 in both commercially insured and Medicare Advantage enrollees. METHODS. Using patient-level claims from Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart database, which annually includes approximately 12-14 million commercial and Medicare Advantage health plan enrollees, annual ED utilization rates of head CT, head MRI, head CTA, neck CTA, head MRA, neck MRA, and carotid duplex ultrasound (US) were assessed from 2007 through 2017. To account for an aging sample population, utilization rates were adjusted using annual relative proportions of age groups and stratified by patient demographics, payer type, and provider state. RESULTS. Between 2007 and 2017, age-adjusted ED neuroimaging utilization rates per 1000 ED visits increased 72% overall (compound annual growth rate [CAGR], 5%). This overall increase corresponded to an increase of 69% for head CT (CAGR, 5%), 67% for head MRI (CAGR, 5%), 1100% for head CTA (CAGR, 25%), 1300% for neck CTA (CAGR, 27%), 36% for head MRA (CAGR, 3%), and 52% for neck MRA (CAGR, 4%) and to a decrease of 8% for carotid duplex US (CAGR, -1%). The utilization of head CT and CTA of the head and neck per 1000 ED visits increased in enrollees 65 years old or older by 48% (CAGR, 4%) and 1011% (CAGR, 24%). CONCLUSION. Neuroimaging utilization in the ED grew considerably between 2007 and 2017, with growth of head and neck CTA far outpacing the growth of other modalities. Unenhanced head CT remains by far the dominant ED neuroimaging examination. CLINICAL IMPACT. The rapid growth of head and neck CTA observed in the fee-for-service Medicare population is also observed in the commercially insured and Medicare Advantage populations. The appropriateness of this growth should be monitored as the indications for CTA expand.

Predicting 90-day modified Rankin Scale score with discharge information in acute ischaemic stroke patients following treatment.

OBJECTIVES: To understand variability in modified Rankin Scale scores from discharge to 90 days in acute ischaemic stroke patients following treatment, and examine prediction of 90-day modified Rankin Scale score by using discharge modified Rankin Scale and discharge disposition. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of acute ischaemic stroke patients following treatment was performed from January 2016 to March 2020. Data collection included demographic and clinical characteristics and outcomes data (modified Rankin Scale score at discharge, 30 days and 90 days and discharge disposition). Pearson's χ2 test assessed statistical differences in distribution of modified Rankin Scale scores at discharge, 30 days and 90 days. The predictive power of discharge modified Rankin Scale score and disposition quantified the association with 90-day outcome. RESULTS: A total of 280 acute ischaemic stroke patients (65.4% aged ≥65 years, 47.1% female, 60.7% white) were included in the analysis. The modified Rankin Scale score significantly changed between 30 and 90 days from discharge (p<0.001) after remaining stable from discharge to 30 days (p=0.665). The positive and negative predictive values of an unfavourable long-term outcome for discharge modified Rankin Scale scores of 3-5 were 67.7% (95% CI 60.4% to 75.0%) and 82.0% (95% CI 75.1% to 88.8%), and for non-home discharge disposition were 72.4% (95% CI 64.5% to 80.2%) and 74.5% (95% CI 67.8% to 81.3%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Discharge modified Rankin Scale score and non-home discharge disposition are good individual predictors of 90-day modified Rankin Scale score for ischaemic stroke patients following treatment.