A flexible joint model for multiple longitudinal biomarkers and a time-to-event outcome: With applications to dynamic prediction using highly correlated biomarkers.

In biomedical studies it is common to collect data on multiple biomarkers during study follow-up for dynamic prediction of a time-to-event clinical outcome. The biomarkers are typically intermittently measured, missing at some event times, and may be subject to high biological variations, which cannot be readily used as time-dependent covariates in a standard time-to-event model. Moreover, they can be highly correlated if they are from in the same biological pathway. To address these issues, we propose a flexible joint model framework that models the multiple biomarkers with a shared latent reduced rank longitudinal principal component model and correlates the latent process to the event time by the Cox model for dynamic prediction of the event time. The proposed joint model for highly correlated biomarkers is more flexible than some existing methods since the latent trajectory shared by the multiple biomarkers does not require specification of a priori parametric time trend and is determined by data. We derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for parameter estimation, study large sample properties of the estimators, and adapt the developed method to make dynamic prediction of the time-to-event outcome. Bootstrap is used for standard error estimation and inference. The proposed method is evaluated using simulations and illustrated on a lung transplant data to predict chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) using chemokines measured in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid of the patients.

Predictive Significance of Serum Interferon-Inducible Protein Score for Response to Treatment in Systemic Sclerosis-Related Interstitial Lung Disease.

OBJECTIVE: Response to immunosuppression is highly variable in systemic sclerosis (SSc)-related interstitial lung disease (ILD). This study was undertaken to determine whether a composite serum interferon (IFN)-inducible protein score exhibits predictive significance for the response to immunosuppression in SSc-ILD. METHODS: Serum samples collected in the Scleroderma Lung Study II, a randomized controlled trial of mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) versus cyclophosphamide (CYC), were examined. Results were validated in an independent observational cohort receiving active treatment. A composite score of 6 IFN-inducible proteins IFNγ-inducible 10-kd protein, monokine induced by IFNγ, monocyte chemotactic protein 2, ß2 -microglobulin, tumor necrosis factor receptor type II, and macrophage inflammatory protein 3ß) was calculated, and its predictive significance for longitudinal forced vital capacity percent predicted measurements was evaluated. RESULTS: Higher baseline IFN-inducible protein score predicted better response over 3 to 12 months in the MMF arm (point estimate = 0.41, P = 0.001) and CYC arm (point estimate = 0.91, P = 0.009). In contrast, higher baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were predictive of a worse ILD course in both treatment arms. The predictive significance of the IFN-inducible protein score and CRP levels remained after adjustment for baseline demographic and clinical predictors. During the second year of treatment, in which patients in the CYC arm were switched to placebo, a higher IFN-inducible protein score at 12 months showed a trend toward predicting a worse ILD course (point estimate = -0.61, P = 0.068), while it remained predictive of better response to active immunosuppression in the MMF arm (point estimate = 0.28, P = 0.029). The predictive significance of baseline IFN-inducible protein score was replicated in the independent cohort (rs = 0.43, P = 0.028). CONCLUSION: A higher IFN-inducible protein score in SSc-ILD is predictive of better response to immunosuppression and could potentially be used to identify patients who may derive the most benefit from MMF or CYC.

Racial Disparities in Systemic Sclerosis: Short- and Long-Term Outcomes Among African American Participants of SLS I and II.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate short- and long-term outcomes of African American (AA) participants of Scleroderma Lung Studies (SLS) I and II. METHODS: SLS I randomized 158 participants with systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) to 1 year of oral cyclophosphamide (CYC) versus placebo. SLS II randomized 142 participants with SSc-ILD to 1 year of oral CYC followed by 1 year of placebo versus 2 years of mycophenolate (MMF). Joint models compared the course of forced vital capacity (FVC) and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) between AA and non-AA, and Cox proportional hazard models assessed long-term morbidity and mortality outcomes. RESULTS: In SLS I, there was no difference in the course of the FVC or DLCO between AA and non-AA in either treatment arm. In SLS II, AA had an improved course of the FVC compared with non-AA in the CYC arm; in the MMF arm, there was no difference in FVC course. There was no difference in DLCO course in either arm. Time to death and respiratory failure were similar for AA and non-AA in SLS I. There was a trend for improved survival and time to respiratory failure in AA compared with non-AA in SLS II. AA race was not independently associated with mortality in the SLS I or II in the Cox models. CONCLUSION: Data from two randomized controlled trials demonstrated that AA patients with SSc-ILD have similar morbidity and mortality outcomes compared with non-AA patients. These findings contrast with the racial disparities described in prior observational studies and warrant further investigation.

Preoperative Ultrasound Assessment of Regional Lymph Nodes in Melanoma Patients Does not Provide Reliable Nodal Staging: Results From a Large Multicenter Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether preoperative ultrasound (US) assessment of regional lymph nodes in patients who present with primary cutaneous melanoma provides accurate staging. BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that preoperative US could avoid the need for sentinel node (SN) biopsy, but in most single-institution reports, the sensitivity of preoperative US has been low. METHODS: Preoperative US data and SNB results were analyzed for patients enrolled at 20 centers participating in the screening phase of the second Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial. Excised SNs were histopathologically assessed and considered positive if any melanoma was seen. RESULTS: SNs were identified and removed from 2859 patients who had preoperative US evaluation. Among those patients, 548 had SN metastases. US was positive (abnormal) in 87 patients (3.0%). Among SN-positive patients, 39 (7.1%) had an abnormal US. When analyzed by lymph node basin, 3302 basins were evaluated, and 38 were true positive (1.2%). By basin, the sensitivity of US was 6.6% (95% confidence interval: 4.6-8.7) and the specificity 98.0% (95% CI: 97.5-98.5). Median cross-sectional area of all SN metastases was 0.13 mm2; in US true-positive nodes, it was 6.8 mm2. US sensitivity increased with increasing Breslow thickness of the primary melanoma (0% for ≤1 mm thickness, 11.9% for >4 mm thickness). US sensitivity was not significantly greater with higher trial center volume or with pre-US lymphoscintigraphy. CONCLUSION: In the MSLT-II screening phase population, SN tumor volume was usually too small to be reliably detected by US. For accurate nodal staging to guide the management of melanoma patients, US is not an effective substitute for SN biopsy.

The MUC5B promoter variant does not predict progression of interstitial lung disease in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of the MUC5B promoter variant rs35705950 in patients with systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) and whether its presence predicts response to immunosuppression with cyclophosphamide (CYC) and mycophenolate (MMF). METHODS: SSc-ILD patients who participated in Scleroderma Lung Study (SLS) II (MMF versus CYC) were included in this study (N = 142). TaqMan Genotyping Assays were used to determine the MUC5B rs35705950 single nucleotide polymorphism. Joint models were created to examine how the presence of this variant affected the course of the forced vital capacity (FVC) over 2 years. Linear regression models were used to investigate the relationship between the presence of this variant and the change in quantitative radiographic fibrosis. RESULTS: Among 128 participants who were tested for this variant, 18% possessed at least one copy of the MUC5B minor allele. Patients with at least one copy of this allele were similar to those without the allele with respect to age, sex, SSc subtype, ILD disease severity; however, this variant was rare among African Americans (3.7%). The presence of the MUC5B variant did not affect the course of the FVC, nor the change in quantitative radiographic fibrosis, ground glass or ILD scores in either treatment arm. CONCLUSION: In the context of a randomized controlled trial for SSc-ILD, the presence of the MUC5B variant did not predict disease severity, nor affect treatment response to MMF or CYC. Future studies are needed to determine whether this variant affects ILD progression in other SSc cohorts and in patients receiving anti-fibrotic therapy.

Peripheral Blood Flow Changes to Cutaneous and Muscular Beds in Response to Acute Hookah Smoking.

Hookah (waterpipe) smoking is a growing tobacco epidemic. Though perceived as a safer tobacco alternative, hookah smoke contains, in addition to tobacco combustion products, large amounts of charcoal combustion products-implicated in cardiovascular disease-from the burning charcoal used to heat the flavored tobacco. To date, little is known on the vascular effects of hookah smoking. The aim of this study was to characterize the peripheral circulatory response to acute hookah smoking in cutaneous and muscular beds. In 21 healthy young adult habitual hookah smokers who did not smoke cigarettes (age 24 ± 1 years, mean ± SE), we measured plasma nicotine, exhaled carbon monoxide, skin blood flow (laser Doppler velocimetry) and calf muscle blood flow (strain-gauge plethysmography) before and for up to 60 minutes after ad lib hookah smoking. In nine subjects, nonsmoking time-control studies were performed. Hookah smoking, which increased plasma nicotine by 5.8 ng/ml (from 0.6 ± 0.1 to 6.4 ± 1.3, p <0.001) and exhaled carbon monoxide by 27 ppm (from 2.7 ± 0.2 to 29.5 ± 2.2, p <0.001), decreased skin blood flow by 23% (20.1 ± 2.8 to 14.8 ± 1.9 units, p <0.001) and increased skeletal muscle blood flow by 34% (2.3 ± 0.1 to 2.9 ± 0.2 units, p = 0.010). These responses required more than one hour to recover after smoking cessation. All cardiovascular parameters were unchanged in the nonsmoking time-control studies. Although perceived to be innocuous, hookah smoking produces acute cutaneous vasoconstriction with skeletal muscle vasodilation, a dissociated pattern of peripheral blood flow responses that is characteristic of nicotine and carbon monoxide. In conclusion, these findings provide objective evidence to challenge the perception that hookah smoking is a safer tobacco alternative.

Using Transitional Changes on High-Resolution Computed Tomography to Monitor the Impact of Cyclophosphamide or Mycophenolate Mofetil on Systemic Sclerosis-Related Interstitial Lung Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To examine changes in the extent of specific patterns of interstitial lung disease (ILD) as they transition from one pattern to another in response to immunosuppressive therapy in systemic sclerosis-related ILD (SSc-ILD). METHODS: We evaluated changes in the quantitative extent of specific lung patterns of ILD using volumetric high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) scans obtained at baseline and after 2 years of therapy in patients treated with either cyclophosphamide (CYC) for 1 year or mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) for 2 years in Scleroderma Lung Study II. ILD patterns included lung fibrosis, ground glass, honeycombing, and normal lung. Net change was calculated as the difference in the probability of change from one ILD pattern to another. Wilcoxon's signed rank test was used to compare the changes. RESULTS: Forty-seven and 50 patients had baseline and follow-up scans in the CYC and MMF groups, respectively. Mean net improvements reflecting favorable changes from one ILD pattern to another in the whole lung in the CYC and MMF groups, respectively, were as follows: from lung fibrosis to a normal lung pattern, 21% and 19%; from a ground-glass pattern to a normal lung pattern, 30% and 28%; and from lung fibrosis to a ground-glass pattern, 5% and 0.5%. The mean overall improvement in transitioning from a ground-glass pattern or lung fibrosis to a normal lung pattern was significant for both treatments (all P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Significantly favorable transitions from both ground-glass and lung fibrosis ILD patterns to a normal lung pattern were observed in patients undergoing immunosuppressive treatment for SSc-ILD, suggesting the usefulness of examining these transitions for insights into the underlying pathobiology of treatment response.

Regional Node Basin Recurrence in Melanoma Patients: More Common After Node Dissection for Macroscopic Rather than Clinically Occult Nodal Disease.

BACKGROUND: Recommended treatment for patients with sentinel lymph node (SLN)-positive melanoma has recently changed. Randomized trials demonstrated equivalent survival with close observation versus completion lymph node dissection (CLND), but increased regional node recurrence. We evaluated factors related to in-basin nodal recurrence after lymphadenectomy (LND) for SLN-positive or macroscopic nodal metastases. METHODS: An institutional database and the first Multicenter Selective Lymphadenectomy Trial (MSLT-I) were analyzed independently. Exclusions were multiple primaries, multi-basin involvement, or in-transit metastases. Patient demographics, primary tumor thickness and ulceration, lymph nodes retrieved, and use of adjuvant radiotherapy were analyzed. Multivariate analyses were performed to determine factors predicting in-basin nodal recurrence (significance p ≤ 0.05). RESULTS: The retrospective cohort (577 patients) showed an in-basin failure rate of 6.6% after CLND for a positive SLN and 13.1% after LND for palpable disease (p = 0.001). This recurrence risk persisted after adjustment for patient, tumor, and LND factors [hazard ratio (HR) 2.32; p = 0.004]. In the MSLT-I cohort (326 patients), the failure rate after CLND following SLNB was 6.2%, but 10.1% after LND for palpable recurrence in observation patients. After adjustment for other factors, macroscopic disease was associated with an increased risk of recurrence after LND (HR 2.24; p = 0.05). CONCLUSION: After LND for melanoma, in-basin recurrence is infrequent, but a clinically significant fraction will fail. Failure is less likely if dissection is performed for clinically occult disease. Further research is warranted to evaluate the long-term regional control and quality of life associated with nodal basin observation, which has now become standard practice.

Correlation of commercially available quantitative MGMT (O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase) promoter methylation scores and GBM patient survival.

BACKGROUND: Between 2011 and 2016, O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation testing at University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) was performed through LabCorp, using a threshold of 2 to distinguish MGMT methylated from unmethylated tumors. In this study, we sought to determine whether the magnitude of the methylation score correlated with outcome. METHODS: We identified 165 newly diagnosed glioblastoma (GBM) isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) wild-type and temozolomide-treated upfront patients at UCLA and Kaiser Permanente Los Angeles with LabCorp-derived quantitative MGMT scores obtained on pretreatment tissue samples. Using LabCorp's threshold, we found 102 unmethylated and 63 methylated patients. We then further substratified each group based on the magnitude of the score, and performed Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS: We validated that the standard LabCorp threshold of 2 could separate our cohort by survival, showing longer OS and PFS for MGMT methylated patients vs unmethylated patients. Cox regression analysis confirmed that MGMT (<1) patients had worse outcome, with OS and PFS hazard ratios of 2.375 (P = .053) and 2.463 (P = .023), respectively, when compared to the MGMT (1-1.99) patients. Contrary to our expectation, when we substratified the ≥2 (methylated) group, we did not find a dose-dependent relationship between the magnitude of MGMT methylation and improved survival. CONCLUSIONS: The MGMT unmethylated group contains a partially methylated group (greater than 1) that shares survival benefits similar to the methylated group. However, we did not demonstrate an association of very high methylation scores with increased survival. These findings will require validation in additional independent clinical data sets.

Bevacizumab at first recurrence after standard radio-chemotherapy is associated with improved overall survival in glioblastoma patients with large tumor burden.

BACKGROUND: Since its approval for use in recurrent glioblastoma (GBM), the survival benefit of bevacizumab (Bev) remains to be demonstrated. To address this issue, we retrospectively examined survival from first recurrence in patients treated with Bev, lomustine (CCNU), or Bev/CCNU. METHODS: We identified 168 primary GBM patients diagnosed at UCLA and Kaiser Permanente LA who received upfront radio-chemotherapy, followed by Bev and/or CCNU at first recurrence. Three patient groups, contemporaneously diagnosed from 2009 through 2015, were identified: (1) patients treated with Bev alone (n = 49), (2) CCNU alone (CCNU 09-15) (n = 36), and (3) Bev/CCNU (n = 53). Another CCNU control group (n = 30) diagnosed from 2001 through 2004 (CCNU 01-04) was also derived. We measured tumor size at first recurrence treatment initiation, using bidimensional (2D) and volumetric (3D) techniques, and analyzed overall survival (OS) from first recurrence. RESULTS: Among the entire cohort, larger tumor size at first recurrence was associated with poorer survival. The CCNU 01-04 group had similar tumor size as the Bev arms and low Bev crossover (7%). Treatment with Bev was associated with improved survival in patients with large tumor 2D measurements: Median OS for Bev and Bev/CCNU groups were 6.71 mo (n = 27) and 6.97 mo (n = 36) vs 4.03 mo (n = 10) in CCNU 01-04. Analysis by 3D measurement yielded similar results. Interestingly, the CCNU 09-15 group showed the highest survival, likely due to smaller tumor size and crossover to Bev (69%). CONCLUSION: Survival advantage from Bev treatment was observed only among patients with large tumor burden as determined by either 2D or 3D measurement.

Progression of Interstitial Lung Disease in Systemic Sclerosis: The Importance of Pneumoproteins Krebs von den Lungen 6 and CCL18.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between Krebs von den Lungen 6 (KL-6) and CCL18 levels and the severity and progression of systemic sclerosis (SSc)-related interstitial lung disease (ILD). METHODS: Patients enrolled in the Scleroderma Lung Study II (cyclophosphamide [CYC] versus mycophenolate mofetil [MMF]) were included. Baseline and 12-month plasma samples were analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to assess CCL18 and KL-6 levels. The forced vital capacity (FVC) and the diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLco) were measured every 3 months. Joint models were created to investigate the relationship between baseline CCL18 and KL-6 levels and the course of the FVC and DLco over 1 year according to treatment arm. RESULTS: Baseline KL-6 and CCL18 levels each correlated with the extent of radiographic fibrosis. Levels of both CCL18 and KL-6 declined significantly at 1 year. In both treatment arms (n = 71 for CYC, n = 62 for MMF), a higher baseline KL-6 level predicted progression of ILD based on the course of FVC (P = 0.024 for CYC; P = 0.005 for MMF) and DLco (P < 0.001 for CYC; P = 0.004 for MMF) over 1 year. A higher baseline CCL18 level predicted progression of ILD based on the course of the FVC (P < 0.001 for CYC; P = 0.007 for MMF) and DLco (P = 0.001 for CYC; P < 0.001 for MMF) over 1 year, as well as mortality (P = 0.0008 for CYC arm only). CONCLUSION: In a rigorously conducted clinical trial for SSc-related ILD, KL-6 and CCL18 levels correlated with ILD severity and declined with immunosuppression. Patients with higher baseline KL-6 and CCL18 levels were more likely to experience disease progression despite treatment. KL-6 and CCL18 levels could be used to identify patients with a progressive ILD phenotype who may benefit from a more aggressive initial treatment approach.

Nocturia as an Unrecognized Symptom of Uncontrolled Hypertension in Black Men Aged 35 to 49 Years.

Background Hypertension is assumed to be asymptomatic. Yet, clinically significant nocturia (≥2 nightly voids) constitutes a putative symptom of uncontrolled hypertension. Black men with hypertension may be prone to nocturia because of blunted nocturnal blood pressure ( BP ) dipping, diuretic drug use for hypertension, and comorbidity that predisposes to nocturia. Here, we test the hypothesis that nocturia is a common and potentially reversible symptom of uncontrolled hypertension in black men. Methods and Results We determined the strength of association between nocturia (≥2 nightly voids) and high BP (≥135/85 mm Hg) by conducting in-person health interviews and measuring BP with an automated monitor in a large community-based sample of black men in their barbershops. Because nocturia is prevalent and steeply age-dependent after age 50 years, we studied men aged 35 to 49 years. Among 1673 black men (mean age, 43±4 years [ SD ]), those with hypertension were 56% more likely than men with normotension to have nocturia after adjustment for diabetes mellitus and sleep apnea (adjusted odds ratio, 1.56; 95% CI , 1.25-1.94 [ P<0.0001]). Nocturia prevalence varied by hypertension status, ranging from 24% in men with normotension to 49% in men whose hypertension was medically treated but uncontrolled. Men with untreated hypertension were 39% more likely than men with normotension to report nocturia ( P=0.02), whereas men whose hypertension was treated and controlled were no more likely than men with normotension to report nocturia ( P=0.69). Conclusions Uncontrolled hypertension was an independent determinant of clinically important nocturia in a large cross-sectional community-based study of non-Hispanic black men aged 35 to 49 years. Clinical Trial Registration URL : http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unqiue identifier: NCT 02321618.

Cyclophosphamide for Systemic Sclerosis-related Interstitial Lung Disease: A Comparison of Scleroderma Lung Study I and II.

OBJECTIVE: To compare safety and efficacy outcomes between the cyclophosphamide (CYC) arms of Scleroderma Lung Study (SLS) I and II. METHODS: Participants enrolled in the CYC arms of SLS I (n = 79) and II (n = 69) were included. SLS I and II randomized participants to oral CYC for 1 year and followed patients for an additional year off therapy (in SLS II, patients received placebo in Year 2). Eligibility criteria for SLS I and II were nearly identical. Outcomes included the forced vital capacity (FVC%)-predicted and DLCO%-predicted (measured every 3 mos) and quantitative radiographic extent of interstitial lung disease (measured at 1 and 2 yrs for SLS I and SLS II, respectively). Joint models were created to evaluate the treatment effect on the course of the FVC/DLCO over 2 years while controlling for baseline disease severity. RESULTS: SLS I and II CYC participants had similar baseline characteristics. After adjusting for baseline disease severity, there was no difference in the course of the FVC%-predicted (p = 0.535) nor the DLCO%-predicted (p = 0.172) between the SLS I and II CYC arms. In both groups, treatment with CYC led to a significant improvement in the FVC%-predicted from 3 to 12 months, but no significant improvement beyond this point. Treatment with CYC had no effect on the DLCO for either group. CONCLUSION: Treatment with 1 year of oral CYC led to similar improvements in lung function in both SLS I and II, although the effects were not sustained following cessation of CYC. These results suggest that increasing the duration of ILD therapy may improve outcomes for patients with systemic sclerosis-ILD.

High Carbon Monoxide Levels from Charcoal Combustion Mask Acute Endothelial Dysfunction Induced by Hookah (Waterpipe) Smoking in Young Adults.

BACKGROUND: Hookah smoking is marketed to youth as a harmless alternative to cigarettes. Although cigarette smoking acutely impairs endothelial function, the effect of smoking fruit-flavored hookah tobacco is unknown. Because charcoal traditionally is used to heat the hookah tobacco in the waterpipe, hookah smoke delivers tobacco toxicants and nicotine plus charcoal combustion products: not only carbon-rich nanoparticles, oxidants that may destroy nitric oxide and impair endothelial function, but also large amounts of carbon monoxide (CO), a putative vasodilator molecule. METHODS: To test the acute effect of hookah smoking on endothelial function, in young adult hookah smokers (n=30, age 26±1 years, mean±SE), we measured plasma nicotine, exhaled CO, and brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) before and after charcoal-heated hookah smoking. To remove the effect of charcoal combustion, the same measurements were performed when the same flavored hookah tobacco product was heated electrically (n=20). As a positive internal control, we studied age-matched cigarette smokers (n=15) who smoked 1 cigarette. To isolate the effect of the CO boost on FMD, hookah smokers (n=8) inhaled a 0.1% CO gas mixture to approximate their CO boost achieved with charcoal-heated hookah smoking. RESULTS: Nicotine levels increased similarly with all types of smoking, whereas exhaled CO increased 9- to 10-fold more after charcoal-heated hookah than after either electrically heated hookah or cigarette smoking. FMD did not decrease after smoking charcoal-heated hookah but instead increased by +43±7% ( P<0.001). In contrast, FMD decreased by -27±4% ( P<0.001) after smoking electrically heated hookah, comparable to the decrease after cigarette smoking. FMD increased markedly by 138±71% ( P<0.001) after breathing CO gas, 2.8 times more than the increase induced in the same subjects after smoking charcoal-heated hookah ( P<0.001), despite comparable increases in exhaled CO (24±1 versus 28±3 ppm, hookah versus CO). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking hookah tobacco, similar to cigarette tobacco, acutely impairs endothelial function. With traditional charcoal-heated hookah smoking, the acute endothelial dysfunction is masked by high levels of carbon monoxide, a potent vasodilator molecule generated by charcoal combustion. With respect to large-artery endothelial function, smoking hookah is not harmless. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifiers: NCT03616002 and NCT03067701.

Sustainability of Blood Pressure Reduction in Black Barbershops.

BACKGROUND: We developed a new model of hypertension care for non-Hispanic black men that links health promotion by barbers to medication management by American Society of Hypertension-certified pharmacists and demonstrated efficacy in a 6-month cluster-randomized trial. The marked reduction in systolic blood pressure (BP) seen at 6 months warranted continuing the trial through 12 months to test sustainability, a necessary precondition for implementation research. METHODS: We enrolled a cohort of 319 black male patrons with systolic BP ≥140 mm Hg at baseline. Fifty-two Los Angeles County barbershops were assigned to either a pharmacist-led intervention or an active control group. In the intervention group, barbers promoted follow-up with pharmacists who prescribed BP medication under a collaborative practice agreement with patrons' primary care providers. In the control group, barbers promoted follow-up with primary care providers and lifestyle modification. After BP assessment at 6 months, the intervention continued with fewer in-person pharmacist visits to test whether the intervention effect could be sustained safely for 1 year while reducing pharmacist travel time. Final BP and safety outcomes were assessed in both groups at 12 months. RESULTS: At baseline, mean systolic BP was 152.4 mm Hg in the intervention group and 154.6 mm Hg in the control group. At 12 months, mean systolic BP fell by 28.6 mm Hg (to 123.8 mm Hg) in the intervention group and by 7.2 mm Hg (to 147.4 mm Hg) in the control group. The mean reduction was 20.8 mm Hg greater in the intervention (95% CI, 13.9-27.7; P<0.0001). A BP <130/80 mm Hg was achieved by 68.0% of the intervention group versus 11.0% of the control group ( P<0.02). These new 12-month efficacy data are statistically indistinguishable from our previously reported 6-month data. No treatment-related serious adverse events occurred in either group over 12 months. Cohort retention at 12 months was 90% in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among black male barbershop patrons with uncontrolled hypertension, health promotion by barbers resulted in large and sustained BP reduction over 12 months when coupled with medication management by American Society of Hypertension-certified pharmacists. Broad-scale implementation research is both justified and warranted. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT 02321618.

Short-term progression of interstitial lung disease in systemic sclerosis predicts long-term survival in two independent clinical trial cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To assess survival and identify predictors of survival in patients with systemic sclerosis-interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) who participated in the Scleroderma Lung Studies (SLS) I and II. METHODS: SLS I randomised 158 patients with SSc-ILD to 1 year of oral cyclophosphamide (CYC) vs placebo. SLS II randomised 142 patients to 1 year of oral CYC followed by 1 year of placebo vs 2 years of mycophenolate mofetil. Counting process Cox proportional hazard modelling identified variables associated with long-term mortality in SLS I and II. Internal validation was performed using joint modelling. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 8 years, 42% of SLS I patients died, and when known the cause of death was most often attributable to SSc. There was no significant difference in the time to death between treatment arms in SLS I or II. Higher baseline skin score, older age, and a decline in the forced vital capacity (FVC) and the diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) over 2 years were independently associated with an increased risk of mortality in SLS I. The Cox model identified the same mortality predictor variables using the SLS II data. CONCLUSION: In addition to identifying traditional mortality risk factors in SSc (skin score, age), this study demonstrated that a decline in FVC and DLCO over 2 years was a better predictor of mortality than baseline FVC and DLCO. These findings suggest that short-term changes in surrogate measures of SSc-ILD progression may have important effects on long-term outcomes.

Racial-ethnic differences in chronic kidney disease-mineral bone disorder in youth on dialysis.

BACKGROUND: Studies in healthy pediatric populations and adults treated with dialysis demonstrate higher parathyroid hormone (PTH) and lower 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels in African-Americans. Despite these findings, African-Americans on dialysis demonstrate greater bone strength and a decreased risk of fracture compared to the Caucasian dialysis population. The presence of such differences in children and young adult dialysis patients is unknown. METHODS: Differences in the markers of mineral and bone metabolism (MBM) were assessed in 661 incident dialysis patients (aged 1 month to < 21 years). Racial-ethnic differences in PTH, calcium, phosphate, and total alkaline phosphatase (AP) activity were analyzed over the first year of dialysis using multivariate linear mixed models. RESULTS: African-American race predicted 23% higher serum PTH (95% CI, 4.7-41.3%) when compared to Caucasian patients, while Hispanic ethnicity predicted 17.5% higher PTH (95% CI, 2.3-38%). Upon gender stratification, the differences in PTH were magnified in African-American and Hispanic females: 38% (95% CI, 14.8-69.8%) and 28.8% (95% CI, 4.7-54.9%) higher PTH compared to Caucasian females. Despite higher PTH values, African-American females persistently demonstrated up to 10.9% lower serum AP activity (95% CI, - 20.6-- 0.7%). CONCLUSIONS: There are racial-ethnic differences in the markers of MBM. Higher PTH is seen in African-American and Hispanic children and young adults on dialysis with a magnification of this difference amongst the female population. There is a need to consider how factors like race, ethnicity, and gender impact the goal-targeted treatment of MBM disorders.

Augmented concentrations of CX3CL1 are associated with interstitial lung disease in systemic sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Dysregulation of Fractalkine (CX3CL1) and its receptor CX3CR1 has been linked to the pathobiology of chronic inflammatory conditions. We explored CX3CL1 in systemic sclerosis (SSc) related progressive interstitial lung disease (ILD) and pulmonary hypertension (PH) in two different but complementary sources of biomaterial. METHODS: We collected lung tissue at the time of lung transplantation at UCLA from SSc-ILD patients (n = 12) and healthy donors (n = 12); and serum samples from the prospective Oslo University Hospital SSc cohort (n = 292) and healthy donors (n = 100). CX3CL1 was measured by ELISA. Cellular sources of CX3CL1/CX3CR1 in lung tissues were determined by immunohistochemistry and immunofluorescence. ILD progression and new onset PH endpoints were analysed. RESULTS: CX3CL1 concentrations were increased in SSc in lung tissue as well as in sera. In the UCLA cohort, CX3CL1 was highly correlated with DLCO. In the SSc-ILD lungs, CX3CL1 was identified in reactive type II pneumocytes and airway epithelial cells. CX3CR1 stained infiltrating interstitial mononuclear cells, especially plasma cells. In the Oslo cohort, CX3CL1 correlated with anti-Topoisomerase-I-antibody and lung fibrosis. CX3CL1 was associated with ILD progression in multivariable regression analysis but not PH. CONCLUSION: CX3CL1 is associated with progressive SSc-ILD but not SSc-PH. The CX3CR1/CX3CL1-biological axis may be involved in recruiting antibody secreting plasma cells to SSc lungs, thereby contributing to the immune-mediated pathobiology of SSc-ILD.

Estriol-mediated neuroprotection in multiple sclerosis localized by voxel-based morphometry.

INTRODUCTION: Progressive gray matter (GM) atrophy is a hallmark of multiple sclerosis (MS). Cognitive impairment has been observed in 40%-70% of MS patients and has been linked to GM atrophy. In a phase 2 trial of estriol treatment in women with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), higher estriol levels correlated with greater improvement on the paced auditory serial addition test (PASAT) and imaging revealed sparing of localized GM in estriol-treated compared to placebo-treated patients. To better understand the significance of this GM sparing, the current study explored the relationships between the GM sparing and traditional MRI measures and clinical outcomes. METHODS: Sixty-two estriol- and forty-nine placebo-treated RRMS patients underwent clinical evaluations and brain MRI. Voxel-based morphometry (VBM) was used to evaluate voxelwise GM sparing from high-resolution T1-weighted scans. RESULTS: A region of treatment-induced sparing (TIS) was defined as the areas where GM was spared in estriol- as compared to placebo-treated groups, localized primarily within the frontal and parietal cortices. We observed that TIS volume was directly correlated with improvement on the PASAT. Next, a longitudinal cognitive disability-specific atlas (DSA) was defined by correlating voxelwise GM volumes with PASAT scores, that is, areas where less GM correlated with less improvement in PASAT scores. Finally, overlap between the TIS and the longitudinal cognitive DSA revealed a specific region of cortical GM that was preserved in estriol-treated subjects that was associated with better performance on the PASAT. CONCLUSIONS: Discovery of this region of overlap was biology driven, not based on an a priori structure of interest. It included the medial frontal cortex, an area previously implicated in problem solving and attention. These findings indicate that localized GM sparing during estriol treatment was associated with improvement in cognitive testing, suggesting a clinically relevant, disability-specific biomarker for clinical trials of candidate neuroprotective treatments in MS.