Challenge of forecasting demand of medical resources and supplies during a pandemic: A comparative evaluation of three surge calculators for COVID-19.

Ever since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a pandemic, there has been a public health debate concerning medical resources and supplies including hospital beds, intensive care units (ICU), ventilators and protective personal equipment (PPE). Forecasting COVID-19 dissemination has played a key role in informing healthcare professionals and governments on how to manage overburdened healthcare systems. However, forecasting during the pandemic remained challenging and sometimes highly controversial. Here, we highlight this challenge by performing a comparative evaluation for the estimations obtained from three COVID-19 surge calculators under different social distancing approaches, taking Lebanon as a case study. Despite discrepancies in estimations, the three surge calculators used herein agree that there will be a relative shortage in the capacity of medical resources and a significant surge in PPE demand if the social distancing policy is removed. Our results underscore the importance of implementing containment interventions including social distancing in alleviating the demand for medical care during the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of any medication or vaccine. The paper also highlights the value of employing several models in surge planning.

Internal hernia as a complication of congenital falciform ligament window.

Commonly, small bowel obstruction (SBO) is caused by either postoperative adhesions or external hernias. Internal hernias are rare, accounting for less than 2% of all cases of intestinal obstruction. An internal hernia through the falciform ligament is extremely uncommon and is usually secondary to a congenital or iatrogenic defect caused by trocars insertion. In this article, we report a case of SBO in a virgin abdomen that appeared to be caused by a congenital defect in the falciform ligament. A search of the literature was done identifying all reported cases of internal hernias caused by falciform ligament defect in order to guide diagnosis and management as well as avoidance of hernias caused by iatrogenic defects.

Clinical trial: a randomized controlled cross-over study of flupenthixol + melitracen in functional dyspepsia.

BACKGROUND: Functional dyspepsia is a prevalent condition associated with diminished quality of life (QoL) and high economic burden. AIM: To study the efficacy of a combination of flupenthixol and melitracen (F + M) with anxiolytic and antidepressant properties in functional dyspepsia using a randomized controlled cross-over design. METHODS: Patients met the Rome III criteria for functional dyspepsia and a validated questionnaire was used to exclude those with anxiety or depression. Moreover, patients had to have failed a trial of acid-suppressive therapy and Helicobacter pylori eradication when positive. End points included subjective global symptom relief and QoL assessed by the Nepean Dyspepsia Index (NDI). RESULTS: Twenty-five patients (14 females, 11 males; mean age = 34.3 +/- 9.9 years) were enrolled and 24 completed the 8-week study. There was a significant improvement in subjective global symptom relief with F + M vs. placebo (ITT: 73.9% vs. 26.1%, P = 0.001) and a significant drop in the NDI score vs. placebo (ITT: -9.0 +/- 11.9 vs. -2.4 +/- 8.9, P = 0.03). No difference was noted whether the initial treatment was F + M or placebo. No significant side effects were noted. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of F and M is safe and effective in the short-term treatment of functional dyspepsia. F + M is associated with significant improvement in QoL independent of the presence of anxiety or depression.

Association of gastroduodenal disease phenotype with ABO blood group and Helicobacter pylori virulence-specific serotypes.

AIMS: To investigate the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in Lebanon and the association between virulence factors (cytotoxin-associated gene A and vacuolating cytotoxin gene A), ABO blood groups, and disease phenotype. METHODS: One hundred and thirty symptomatic patients with H. pylori-associated endoscopic findings and 104 healthy male donors (age range 18-55) were evaluated. Both, patients and donors underwent ABO blood typing and Western blot for cytotoxin-associated gene A and vacuolating cytotoxin gene A. RESULTS: The prevalence of H. pylori infection in healthy donors is 68.3%. Type I (cytotoxin-associated gene A- and vacuolating cytotoxin gene A-positive) was the predominant phenotype in all groups, though significantly less common in the asymptomatic population (46.5%) than in patients with benign disease (71.4%, p<0.01) or malignancy (71.6%, p<0.05). Type II (cytotoxin-associated gene A- and vacuolating cytotoxin gene A-negative) and vacuolating cytotoxin gene A-only strains were more common in the asymptomatic cohort. Overall, 35.2% of asymptomatic individuals and 10.8% of patients with benign disease were cytotoxin-associated gene A-negative (p<0.01). There was no significant association between immunoserotypes, ABO groups or benign gastroduodenal disease. All gastric malignancies (lymphoma and adenocarcinoma) were cytotoxin-associated gene A-positive but this was not significantly different from patients with benign disease. We found a higher prevalence of blood group A in patients with gastric malignancy than in the general population [47.6% versus 25%, p=0.037; RR=2.73 (1.04-7.16; 95% CI)]. CONCLUSIONS: The seroprevalence of H. pylori is moderately high in Lebanon. Phenotypic classification identifies a higher prevalence of Type I in symptomatic patients. A significant relationship between infection with a cytotoxin-associated gene A-positive strain in blood type A patients and the risk of gastric malignancy was noted.

Familial antiphospholipid antibodies and acquired circulating anticoagulants.

Familial clustering of elevated antiphospholipid antibody levels has been described, but the reports are heterogeneous with regard to the characterization of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS), coexisting autoimmune diseases and clinical implications. We report a familial occurrence of APS in two patients, in the presence of SLE in the mother and absence of autoimmune diseases in the daughter along with acquired circulating inhibitors in both cases: platelet inhibitor and factor IX inhibitor, respectively.