RESUMEN
Background: There are established correlations between risk factors and ischemic stroke (IS) recurrence; however, does the hazard of recurrent IS change over time? What is the predicted baseline hazard of recurrent IS if there is no influence of variable predictors? This study aimed to quantify the hazard of recurrent IS when the variable predictors were set to zero and quantify the secondary prevention influence on the hazard of recurrent ischemic stroke. Methods: In the population cohort involved in this study, data were extracted from 7,697 patients with a history of first IS attack registered with the National Neurology Registry of Malaysia from 2009 to 2016. A time-to-recurrent IS model was developed using NONMEM version 7.5. Three baseline hazard models were fitted into the data. The best model was selected using maximum likelihood estimation, clinical plausibility, and visual predictive checks. Results: Within the maximum 7.37 years of follow-up, 333 (4.32%) patients had at least one incident of recurrent IS. The data were well described by the Gompertz hazard model. Within the first 6 months after the index IS, the hazard of recurrent IS was predicted to be 0.238, and 6 months after the index attack, it reduced to 0.001. The presence of typical risk factors such as hyperlipidemia [HR, 2.22 (95%CI: 1.81-2.72)], hypertension [HR, 2.03 (95%CI: 1.52-2.71)], and ischemic heart disease [HR, 2.10 (95%CI: 1.64-2.69)] accelerated the hazard of recurrent IS, but receiving antiplatelets (APLTs) upon stroke decreased this hazard [HR, 0.59 (95%CI: 0.79-0.44)]. Conclusion: The hazard of recurrent IS magnitude differs during different time intervals based on the concomitant risk factors and secondary prevention.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Factors associated with ischemic stroke (IS) recurrence and the contribution of pharmacological treatment as secondary preventions among nondiabetics especially in the non-elderly population are unclear and not widely investigated. This was a population-based study that aimed to identify recurrent IS predictors and to determine the possible impact of secondary preventive medications on the IS recurrence in non-elderly adults with or without diabetes. METHODS: Data of 3386 patients <60 years old who had a history of index IS were extracted from the Malaysian National Neurology Registry (NNEUR) from 2009 to 2016. Recurrent IS was defined as any IS event recorded after the index IS in the NNEUR database. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed by using SPSS version 22. RESULTS: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) was the significant predictor of IS recurrence in non-elderly adults both with or without diabetes (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 3.210; 95%CI: 1.909-5.398 and 2.989; 95%CI: 1.515-5.894) respectively). Receiving antiplatelet as secondary stroke prevention (AOR: 0.194; 95%CI: 0.046-0.817) and continuation of antidiabetic medication after the index IS event (AOR: 0.510; 95%CI: 0.298-0.872) reduced the odds of IS recurrence only in non-elderly diabetic adults. Among non-elderly adults without diabetes, hyperlipidemia and every increased in 1 mmHg of systolic blood pressure significantly increased the odds of IS recurrence following the indexing event (AOR: 1.796; 95%CI: 1.058-3.051 and 1.009; 95%CI: 1.002-1.016 respectively). CONCLUSION: IHD was found as the main predictor of IS recurrence regardless of diabetes status in non-elderly adults after the index IS event. Receiving antidiabetic and antiplatelet medications upon discharge after index IS were significant predictors of recurrent IS in non-elderly diabetic adults. A proper randomized clinical trial may be required to determine the impact of secondary preventive medication on IS recurrence, especially in non-elderly adults.