Canopy composition drives variability in urban growing season length more than the heat island effect.

The elevated heat of urban areas compared to their surroundings makes humid temperate cities a useful preview of future climate effects on natural forest phenology. The utility of this proxy rests on the expectation that trees in urban areas alter their phenology in response to warmer site conditions in spring and fall. However, it is possible that apparent lengthening of the growing season is instead governed by human-driven tree species selection and plant functional type (PFT; trees, shrubs, turfgrass) heterogeneity typical of managed landscapes. Without the use of highly spatially and temporally resolved remote sensing data, the roles of tree taxonomy and local site characteristics (e.g., impervious cover) in controlling phenology remain confounded. To understand the drivers of earlier start of season (SOS) and later end of season (EOS) among urban trees, we estimated individual tree phenology using >130 high-resolution satellite images per year (2018-2020) for ~10,000 species-labeled trees in Washington, DC. We found that species identity alone accounted for 4× more variability in the timing of SOS and EOS compared with a tree's planting location characteristics. Additionally, the urban mix of PFTs may be more responsible for apparent advances in SOS (by between 1.8 ± 1.3 and 3.5 ± 1.3 days) than heat per se. The results of this study caution against associating longer growing seasons in cities-observed in moderate to coarse resolution remote sensing imagery-to within-species phenological plasticity and demonstrate the power of high-resolution satellite data for tracking tree phenology in biodiverse environments.

Dasymetric population mapping based on US census data and 30-m gridded estimates of impervious surface.

Assessment of socio-environmental problems and the search for solutions often require intersecting geospatial data on environmental factors and human population densities. In the United States, Census data is the most common source for information on population. However, timely acquisition of such data at sufficient spatial resolution can be problematic, especially in cases where the analysis area spans urban-rural gradients. With this data release, we provide a 30-m resolution population estimate for the contiguous United States. The workflow dasymetrically distributes Census block level population estimates across all non-transportation impervious surfaces within each Census block. The methodology is updatable using the most recent Census data and remote sensing-based observations of impervious surface area. The dataset, known as the U.G.L.I (updatable gridded lightweight impervious) population dataset, compares favorably against other population data sources, and provides a useful balance between resolution and complexity.

Evidence, causes, and consequences of declining nitrogen availability in terrestrial ecosystems.

The productivity of ecosystems and their capacity to support life depends on access to reactive nitrogen (N). Over the past century, humans have more than doubled the global supply of reactive N through industrial and agricultural activities. However, long-term records demonstrate that N availability is declining in many regions of the world. Reactive N inputs are not evenly distributed, and global changes-including elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and rising temperatures-are affecting ecosystem N supply relative to demand. Declining N availability is constraining primary productivity, contributing to lower leaf N concentrations, and reducing the quality of herbivore diets in many ecosystems. We outline the current state of knowledge about declining N availability and propose actions aimed at characterizing and responding to this emerging challenge.

The Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling System: Overview and Recommendations for Future Development.

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

Positive correlation between wood δ 15N and stream nitrate concentrations in two temperate deciduous forests.

A limitation to understanding drivers of long-term trends in terrestrial nitrogen (N) availability in forests and its subsequent influence on stream nitrate export is a general lack of integrated analyses using long-term data on terrestrial and aquatic N cycling at comparable spatial scales. Here we analyze relationships between stream nitrate concentrations and wood δ 15N records (n = 96 trees) across five neighboring headwater catchments in the Blue Ridge physiographic province and within a single catchment in the Appalachian Plateau physiographic province in the eastern United States. Climatic, acidic deposition, and forest disturbance datasets were developed to elucidate the influence of these factors on terrestrial N availability through time. We hypothesized that spatial and temporal variation of terrestrial N availability, for which tree-ring δ 15N records serve as a proxy, affects the variation of stream nitrate concentration across space and time. Across space at the Blue Ridge study sites, stream nitrate concentration increased linearly with increasing catchment mean wood δ 15N. Over time, stream nitrate concentrations decreased with decreasing wood δ 15N in five of the six catchments. Wood δ 15N showed a significant negative relationship with disturbance and acidic deposition. Disturbance likely exacerbated N limitation by inducing nitrate leaching and ultimately enhancing vegetative uptake. As observed elsewhere, lower rates of acidic deposition and subsequent deacidification of soils may increase terrestrial N availability. Despite the ephemeral modifications of terrestrial N availability by these two drivers and climate, long-term declines in terrestrial N availability were robust and have likely driven much of the declines in stream nitrate concentration throughout the central Appalachians.

Isotopic evidence for oligotrophication of terrestrial ecosystems.

Human societies depend on an Earth system that operates within a constrained range of nutrient availability, yet the recent trajectory of terrestrial nitrogen (N) availability is uncertain. Examining patterns of foliar N concentrations and isotope ratios (δ15N) from more than 43,000 samples acquired over 37 years, here we show that foliar N concentration declined by 9% and foliar δ15N declined by 0.6-1.6‰. Examining patterns across different climate spaces, foliar δ15N declined across the entire range of mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation tested. These results suggest declines in N supply relative to plant demand at the global scale. In all, there are now multiple lines of evidence of declining N availability in many unfertilized terrestrial ecosystems, including declines in δ15N of tree rings and leaves from herbarium samples over the past 75-150 years. These patterns are consistent with the proposed consequences of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and longer growing seasons. These declines will limit future terrestrial carbon uptake and increase nutritional stress for herbivores.

Continental scale variability of foliar nitrogen and carbon isotopes in Populus balsamifera and their relationships with climate.

Variation across climate gradients in the isotopic composition of nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) in foliar tissues has the potential to reveal ecological processes related to N and water availability. However, it has been a challenge to separate spatial patterns related to direct effects of climate from effects that manifest indirectly through species turnover across climate gradients. Here we compare variation along environmental gradients in foliar N isotope (δ15N) and C isotopic discrimination (Δ13C) measured in 755 specimens of a single widely distributed tree species, Populus balsamifera, with variation represented in global databases of foliar isotopes. After accounting for mycorrhizal association, sample size, and climatic range, foliar δ15N in P. balsamifera was more weakly related to mean annual precipitation and foliar N concentration than when measured across species, yet exhibited a stronger negative effect of mean annual temperature. Similarly, the effect of precipitation and elevation on Δ13C were stronger in a global data base of foliar Δ13C samples than observed in P. balsamifera. These results suggest that processes influencing foliar δ15N and Δ13C in P. balsamifera are partially normalized across its climatic range by the habitat it occupies or by the physiology of the species itself.

Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels.

Tidal habitats host a diversity of species and provide hydrological services such as shoreline protection and nutrient attenuation. Accretion of sediment and biomass enables tidal marshes and swamps to grow vertically, providing a degree of resilience to rising sea levels. Even if accelerating sea level rise overcomes this vertical resilience, tidal habitats have the potential to migrate inland as they continue to occupy land that falls within the new tide range elevations. The existence of developed land inland of tidal habitats, however, may prevent this migration as efforts are often made to dyke and protect developments. To test the importance of inland migration to maintaining tidal habitat abundance under a range of potential rates of sea level rise, we developed a spatially explicit elevation tracking and habitat switching model, dubbed the Marsh Accretion and Inundation Model (MAIM), which incorporates elevation-dependent net land surface elevation gain functions. We applied the model to the metropolitan Washington, DC region, finding that the abundance of small National Park Service units and other public open space along the tidal Potomac River system provides a refuge to which tidal habitats may retreat to maintain total habitat area even under moderate sea level rise scenarios (0.7 m and 1.1 m rise by 2100). Under a severe sea level rise scenario associated with ice sheet collapse (1.7 m by 2100) habitat area is maintained only if no development is protected from rising water. If all existing development is protected, then 5%, 10%, and 40% of the total tidal habitat area is lost by 2100 for the three sea level rise scenarios tested.

Earlier springs are causing reduced nitrogen availability in North American eastern deciduous forests.

There is wide agreement that anthropogenic climate warming has influenced the phenology of forests during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries(1,2). Longer growing seasons can lead to increased photosynthesis and productivity(3), which would represent a negative feedback to rising CO2 and consequently warming(4,5). Alternatively, increased demand for soil resources because of a longer photosynthetically active period in conjunction with other global change factors might exacerbate resource limitation(6,7), restricting forest productivity response to a longer growing season(8,9). In this case, increased springtime productivity has the potential to increase plant nitrogen limitation by increasing plant demand for nitrogen more than nitrogen supplies, or increasing early-season ecosystem nitrogen losses(10,11). Here we show that for 222 trees representing three species in eastern North America earlier spring phenology during the past 30 years has caused declines in nitrogen availability to trees by increasing demand for nitrogen relative to supply. The observed decline in nitrogen availability is not associated with reduced wood production, suggesting that other environmental changes such as increased atmospheric CO2 and water availability are likely to have overwhelmed reduced nitrogen availability. Given current trajectories of environmental changes, nitrogen limitation is likely to continue to increase for these forests, possibly further limiting carbon sequestration potential.

Spatial patterns of plant litter in a tidal freshwater marsh and implications for marsh persistence.

The maintenance of marsh platform elevation under conditions of sea level rise is dependent on mineral sediment supply to marsh surfaces and conversion of above- and belowground plant biomass to soil organic material. These physical and biological processes interact within the tidal zone, resulting in elevation-dependent processes contributing to marsh accretion. Here, we explore spatial pattern in a variable related to aboveground biomass, plant litter, to reveal its role in the maintenance of marsh surfaces. Plant litter persisting through the dormant season represents the more recalcitrant portion of plant biomass, and as such has an extended period of influence on ecosystem processes. We conducted a field and remote sensing analysis of plant litter height, aboveground biomass, vertical cover, and stem density (collectively termed plant litter structure) at a tidal freshwater marsh located within the Potomac River estuary, USA. LiDAR and field observations show that plant litter structure becomes more prominent with increasing elevation. Spatial patterns in litter structure exhibit stability from year to year and correlate with patterns in soil organic matter content, revealed by measuring the loss on ignition of surface sediments. The amount of mineral material embedded within plant litter decreases with increasing elevation, representing an important tradeoff with litter structure. Therefore, at low elevations where litter structure is short and sparse, the role of plant litter is to capture sediment; at high elevations where litter structure is tall and dense, aboveground litter contributes organic matter to soil development. This organic matter contribution has the potential to eclipse that of belowground biomass as the root:shoot ratio of dominant species at high elevations is low compared to that of dominant species at low elevations. Because of these tradeoffs in mineral and organic matter incorporation into soil across elevation gradients, the rate of marsh surface elevation change is remarkably consistent across elevation. Because of the role of plant litter in marsh ecosystem processes, monitoring and assessment of these dynamic geomorphic marsh landscapes might be streamlined through the measurement of plant litter structure, either via LiDAR technologies or field observation.

Convergence of soil nitrogen isotopes across global climate gradients.

Quantifying global patterns of terrestrial nitrogen (N) cycling is central to predicting future patterns of primary productivity, carbon sequestration, nutrient fluxes to aquatic systems, and climate forcing. With limited direct measures of soil N cycling at the global scale, syntheses of the (15)N:(14)N ratio of soil organic matter across climate gradients provide key insights into understanding global patterns of N cycling. In synthesizing data from over 6000 soil samples, we show strong global relationships among soil N isotopes, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the concentrations of organic carbon and clay in soil. In both hot ecosystems and dry ecosystems, soil organic matter was more enriched in (15)N than in corresponding cold ecosystems or wet ecosystems. Below a MAT of 9.8°C, soil δ(15)N was invariant with MAT. At the global scale, soil organic C concentrations also declined with increasing MAT and decreasing MAP. After standardizing for variation among mineral soils in soil C and clay concentrations, soil δ(15)N showed no consistent trends across global climate and latitudinal gradients. Our analyses could place new constraints on interpretations of patterns of ecosystem N cycling and global budgets of gaseous N loss.

Potential stream density in Mid-Atlantic US watersheds.

Stream network density exerts a strong influence on ecohydrologic processes in watersheds, yet existing stream maps fail to capture most headwater streams and therefore underestimate stream density. Furthermore, discrepancies between mapped and actual stream length vary between watersheds, confounding efforts to understand the impacts of land use on stream ecosystems. Here we report on research that predicts stream presence from coupled field observations of headwater stream channels and terrain variables that were calculated both locally and as an average across the watershed upstream of any location on the landscape. Our approach used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt), a robust method commonly implemented to model species distributions that requires information only on the presence of the entity of interest. In validation, the method correctly predicts the presence of 86% of all 10-m stream segments and errors are low (<1%) for catchments larger than 10 ha. We apply this model to the entire Potomac River watershed (37,800 km(2)) and several adjacent watersheds to map stream density and compare our results with the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD). We find that NHD underestimates stream density by up to 250%, with errors being greatest in the densely urbanized cities of Washington, DC and Baltimore, MD and in regions where the NHD has never been updated from its original, coarse-grain mapping. This work is the most ambitious attempt yet to map stream networks over a large region and will have lasting implications for modeling and conservation efforts.

Timing of climate variability and grassland productivity.

Future climates are forecast to include greater precipitation variability and more frequent heat waves, but the degree to which the timing of climate variability impacts ecosystems is uncertain. In a temperate, humid grassland, we examined the seasonal impacts of climate variability on 27 y of grass productivity. Drought and high-intensity precipitation reduced grass productivity only during a 110-d period, whereas high temperatures reduced productivity only during 25 d in July. The effects of drought and heat waves declined over the season and had no detectable impact on grass productivity in August. If these patterns are general across ecosystems, predictions of ecosystem response to climate change will have to account not only for the magnitude of climate variability but also for its timing.

Global patterns of foliar nitrogen isotopes and their relationships with climate, mycorrhizal fungi, foliar nutrient concentrations, and nitrogen availability.

Ratios of nitrogen (N) isotopes in leaves could elucidate underlying patterns of N cycling across ecological gradients. To better understand global-scale patterns of N cycling, we compiled data on foliar N isotope ratios (delta(15)N), foliar N concentrations, mycorrhizal type and climate for over 11,000 plants worldwide. Arbuscular mycorrhizal, ectomycorrhizal, and ericoid mycorrhizal plants were depleted in foliar delta(15)N by 2 per thousand, 3.2 per thousand, 5.9 per thousand, respectively, relative to nonmycorrhizal plants. Foliar delta(15)N increased with decreasing mean annual precipitation and with increasing mean annual temperature (MAT) across sites with MAT >or= -0.5 degrees C, but was invariant with MAT across sites with MAT < -0.5 degrees C. In independent landscape-level to regional-level studies, foliar delta(15)N increased with increasing N availability; at the global scale, foliar delta(15)N increased with increasing foliar N concentrations and decreasing foliar phosphorus (P) concentrations. Together, these results suggest that warm, dry ecosystems have the highest N availability, while plants with high N concentrations, on average, occupy sites with higher N availability than plants with low N concentrations. Global-scale comparisons of other components of the N cycle are still required for better mechanistic understanding of the determinants of variation in foliar delta(15)N and ultimately global patterns in N cycling.