Morphological Stability for in silico Models of Avascular Tumors.

The landscape of computational modeling in cancer systems biology is diverse, offering a spectrum of models and frameworks, each with its own trade-offs and advantages. Ideally, models are meant to be useful in refining hypotheses, to sharpen experimental procedures and, in the longer run, even for applications in personalized medicine. One of the greatest challenges is to balance model realism and detail with experimental data to eventually produce useful data-driven models. We contribute to this quest by developing a transparent, highly parsimonious, first principle in silico model of a growing avascular tumor. We initially formulate the physiological considerations and the specific model within a stochastic cell-based framework. We next formulate a corresponding mean-field model using partial differential equations which is amenable to mathematical analysis. Despite a few notable differences between the two models, we are in this way able to successfully detail the impact of all parameters in the stability of the growth process and on the eventual tumor fate of the stochastic model. This facilitates the deduction of Bayesian priors for a given situation, but also provides important insights into the underlying mechanism of tumor growth and progression. Although the resulting model framework is relatively simple and transparent, it can still reproduce the full range of known emergent behavior. We identify a novel model instability arising from nutrient starvation and we also discuss additional insight concerning possible model additions and the effects of those. Thanks to the framework's flexibility, such additions can be readily included whenever the relevant data become available.

Bayesian monitoring of COVID-19 in Sweden.

In an effort to provide regional decision support for the public healthcare, we design a data-driven compartment-based model of COVID-19 in Sweden. From national hospital statistics we derive parameter priors, and we develop linear filtering techniques to drive the simulations given data in the form of daily healthcare demands. We additionally propose a posterior marginal estimator which provides for an improved temporal resolution of the reproduction number estimate as well as supports robustness checks via a parametric bootstrap procedure. From our computational approach we obtain a Bayesian model of predictive value which provides important insight into the progression of the disease, including estimates of the effective reproduction number, the infection fatality rate, and the regional-level immunity. We successfully validate our posterior model against several different sources, including outputs from extensive screening programs. Since our required data in comparison is easy and non-sensitive to collect, we argue that our approach is particularly promising as a tool to support monitoring and decisions within public health. Significance: Using public data from Swedish patient registries we develop a national-scale computational model of COVID-19. The parametrized model produces valuable weekly predictions of healthcare demands at the regional level and validates well against several different sources. We also obtain critical epidemiological insights into the disease progression, including, e.g., reproduction number, immunity and disease fatality estimates. The success of the model hinges on our novel use of filtering techniques which allows us to design an accurate data-driven procedure using data exclusively from healthcare demands, i.e., our approach does not rely on public testing and is therefore very cost-effective.

Bayesian inference in epidemics: linear noise analysis.

This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the Bayesian model's convergence with increasing amounts of data under measurement limitations. Depending on how weakly informative the disease measurements are, we offer a kind of 'best case' as well as a 'worst case' analysis where, in the former case, we assume that the prevalence is directly accessible, while in the latter that only a binary signal corresponding to a prevalence detection threshold is available. Both cases are studied under an assumed so-called linear noise approximation as to the true dynamics. Numerical experiments test the sharpness of our results when confronted with more realistic situations for which analytical results are unavailable.

App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions in COVID Symptom Study Sweden.

The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants (≥18 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Here, we include data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities are employed to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which are in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We show that this hospital prediction model demonstrates a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates are similar. When we apply the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observe MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0% during the first and second pandemic waves, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model.

Flash X-ray diffraction imaging in 3D: a proposed analysis pipeline.

Modern Flash X-ray diffraction Imaging (FXI) acquires diffraction signals from single biomolecules at a high repetition rate from X-ray Free Electron Lasers (XFELs), easily obtaining millions of 2D diffraction patterns from a single experiment. Due to the stochastic nature of FXI experiments and the massive volumes of data, retrieving 3D electron densities from raw 2D diffraction patterns is a challenging and time-consuming task. We propose a semi-automatic data analysis pipeline for FXI experiments, which includes four steps: hit-finding and preliminary filtering, pattern classification, 3D Fourier reconstruction, and post-analysis. We also include a recently developed bootstrap methodology in the post-analysis step for uncertainty analysis and quality control. To achieve the best possible resolution, we further suggest using background subtraction, signal windowing, and convex optimization techniques when retrieving the Fourier phases in the post-analysis step. As an application example, we quantified the 3D electron structure of the PR772 virus using the proposed data analysis pipeline. The retrieved structure was above the detector edge resolution and clearly showed the pseudo-icosahedral capsid of the PR772.

Bayesian epidemiological modeling over high-resolution network data.

Mathematical epidemiological models have a broad use, including both qualitative and quantitative applications. With the increasing availability of data, large-scale quantitative disease spread models can nowadays be formulated. Such models have a great potential, e.g., in risk assessments in public health. Their main challenge is model parameterization given surveillance data, a problem which often limits their practical usage. We offer a solution to this problem by developing a Bayesian methodology suitable to epidemiological models driven by network data. The greatest difficulty in obtaining a concentrated parameter posterior is the quality of surveillance data; disease measurements are often scarce and carry little information about the parameters. The often overlooked problem of the model's identifiability therefore needs to be addressed, and we do so using a hierarchy of increasingly realistic known truth experiments. Our proposed Bayesian approach performs convincingly across all our synthetic tests. From pathogen measurements of shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 in Swedish cattle, we are able to produce an accurate statistical model of first-principles confronted with data. Within this model we explore the potential of a Bayesian public health framework by assessing the efficiency of disease detection and -intervention scenarios.

Initialization of a Disease Transmission Model.

Approaches to the estimation of the full state vector of a larger epidemiological model for the spread of Covid-19 in Sweden at the initial time instant from available data and with a simplified dynamical model are proposed and evaluated. The larger epidemiological model is based on a time-continuous Markov chain and captures the demographic composition of and the transport flows between the counties of Sweden. Its intended use is to predict the outbreak development in temporal and spatial coordinates as well as across the demographic groups. It can also support evaluations and comparisions of prospective intervention strategies in terms of, e.g., lockdown in certain areas or isolation of specific age groups. The simplified model is a discrete time-invariant linear system that has cumulative infectious incidence, infected population, asymptomatic population, exposed population, and infectious pressure as the state variables. Since the system matrix of the model depends on a number of transition rates, structural properties of the model are investigated for suitable parameter ranges. It is concluded that the model becomes unobservable for some parameter values. Two contrasting approaches to the initial state estimation are considered. One is a version of Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother and another is based on solving a batch nonlinear optimization problem. The benefits and shortcomings of the considered estimation techniques are analyzed and compared.

Supervised classification methods for flash X-ray single particle diffraction imaging.

Current Flash X-ray single-particle diffraction Imaging (FXI) experiments, which operate on modern X-ray Free Electron Lasers (XFELs), can record millions of interpretable diffraction patterns from individual biomolecules per day. Due to the practical limitations with the FXI technology, those patterns will to a varying degree include scatterings from contaminated samples. Also, the heterogeneity of the sample biomolecules is unavoidable and complicates data processing. Reducing the data volumes and selecting high-quality single-molecule patterns are therefore critical steps in the experimental setup. In this paper, we present two supervised template-based learning methods for classifying FXI patterns. Our Eigen-Image and Log-Likelihood classifier can find the best-matched template for a single-molecule pattern within a few milliseconds. It is also straightforward to parallelize them so as to match the XFEL repetition rate fully, thereby enabling processing at site. The methods perform in a stable way on various kinds of synthetic data. As a practical example we tested our methods on a real mimivirus dataset, obtaining a convincing classification accuracy of 0.9.

Stochastic Simulation of Pattern Formation in Growing Tissue: A Multilevel Approach.

We take up the challenge of designing realistic computational models of large interacting cell populations. The goal is essentially to bring Gillespie's celebrated stochastic methodology to the level of an interacting population of cells. Specifically, we are interested in how the gold standard of single-cell computational modeling, here taken to be spatial stochastic reaction-diffusion models, may be efficiently coupled with a similar approach at the cell population level. Concretely, we target a recently proposed set of pathways for pattern formation involving Notch-Delta signaling mechanisms. These involve cell-to-cell communication as mediated both via direct membrane contact sites and via cellular protrusions. We explain how to simulate the process in growing tissue using a multilevel approach and we discuss implications for future development of the associated computational methods.

Scalable population-level modelling of biological cells incorporating mechanics and kinetics in continuous time.

The processes taking place inside the living cell are now understood to the point where predictive computational models can be used to gain detailed understanding of important biological phenomena. A key challenge is to extrapolate this detailed knowledge of the individual cell to be able to explain at the population level how cells interact and respond with each other and their environment. In particular, the goal is to understand how organisms develop, maintain and repair functional tissues and organs. In this paper, we propose a novel computational framework for modelling populations of interacting cells. Our framework incorporates mechanistic, constitutive descriptions of biomechanical properties of the cell population, and uses a coarse-graining approach to derive individual rate laws that enable propagation of the population through time. Thanks to its multiscale nature, the resulting simulation algorithm is extremely scalable and highly efficient. As highlighted in our computational examples, the framework is also very flexible and may straightforwardly be coupled with continuous-time descriptions of biochemical signalling within, and between, individual cells.

Spatio-temporal modelling of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157 in cattle in Sweden: exploring options for control.

A spatial data-driven stochastic model was developed to explore the spread of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157 (VTEC O157) by livestock movements and local transmission among neighbouring holdings in the complete Swedish cattle population. Livestock data were incorporated to model the time-varying contact network between holdings and population demographics. Furthermore, meteorological data with the average temperature at the geographical location of each holding was used to incorporate season. The model was fitted against observed data and extensive numerical experiments were conducted to investigate the model's response to control strategies aimed at reducing shedding and susceptibility, as well as interventions informed by network measures. The results showed that including local spread and season improved agreement with prevalence studies. Also, control strategies aimed at reducing the average shedding rate were more efficient in reducing the VTEC O157 prevalence than strategies based on network measures. The methodology presented in this study could provide a basis for developing disease surveillance on regional and national scales, where observed data are combined with readily available high-resolution data in simulations to get an overview of potential disease spread in unobserved regions.

Assessing uncertainties in x-ray single-particle three-dimensional reconstruction.

Modern technology for producing extremely bright and coherent x-ray laser pulses provides the possibility to acquire a large number of diffraction patterns from individual biological nanoparticles, including proteins, viruses, and DNA. These two-dimensional diffraction patterns can be practically reconstructed and retrieved down to a resolution of a few angstroms. In principle, a sufficiently large collection of diffraction patterns will contain the required information for a full three-dimensional reconstruction of the biomolecule. The computational methodology for this reconstruction task is still under development and highly resolved reconstructions have not yet been produced. We analyze the expansion-maximization-compression scheme, the current state of the art approach for this very challenging application, by isolating different sources of resolution-limiting factors. Through numerical experiments on synthetic data we evaluate their respective impact. We reach conclusions of relevance for handling actual experimental data, and we also point out certain improvements to the underlying estimation algorithm. We also introduce a practically applicable computational methodology in the form of bootstrap procedures for assessing reconstruction uncertainty in the real data case. We evaluate the sharpness of this approach and argue that this type of procedure will be critical in the near future when handling the increasing amount of data.

Vascular sprouts induce local attraction of proangiogenic neutrophils.

Angiogenesis, the growth of new blood vessels, is a complex process requiring the orchestration of numerous different cell types, growth factors, and chemokines. Some of the recently acknowledged actors in this process are immune cells. They accumulate at hypoxic sites, but the kinetics, dynamics, and regulation of that trafficking are unknown. In this study, we used intravital and live cell imaging to understand how neutrophils and macrophages migrate and behave at angiogenic sites. We developed two reproducible models of angiogenesis: one by transplanting isolated and hypoxic pancreatic islets into the cremaster muscles of mice, and another by in vitro coculturing of mouse aortic rings with neutrophils. In vivo imaging of the hypoxic site revealed recruitment of neutrophils and macrophages, which occurred in parallel, with depletion of one subset not affecting the accumulation of the other. We found, by cell tracking and statistical analyses, that neutrophils migrated in a directional manner to "angiogenic hotspots" around the islet where endothelial sprouting occurs, which was confirmed in the in vitro model of angiogenesis and is dependent on CXCL12 signaling. Intimate interactions between neutrophils and neovessels were prevalent, and neutrophil depletion greatly hampered vessel growth. Macrophages were less motile and attained supportive positions around the neovessels. Here, we present two novel in vivo and in vitro imaging models to study leukocyte behavior and actions during angiogenesis. These models unveiled that neutrophil migration at a hypoxic site was guided by signals emanating from sprouting endothelium where these immune cells gathered at "angiogenic hotspots" at which vascular growth occurred.

Data-driven network modelling of disease transmission using complete population movement data: spread of VTEC O157 in Swedish cattle.

European Union legislation requires member states to keep national databases of all bovine animals. This allows for disease spread models that includes the time-varying contact network and population demographic. However, performing data-driven simulations with a high degree of detail are computationally challenging. We have developed an efficient and flexible discrete-event simulator SimInf for stochastic disease spread modelling that divides work among multiple processors to accelerate the computations. The model integrates disease dynamics as continuous-time Markov chains and livestock data as events. In this study, all Swedish livestock data (births, movements and slaughter) from July 1st 2005 to December 31st 2013 were included in the simulations. Verotoxigenic Escherichia coli O157:H7 (VTEC O157) are capable of causing serious illness in humans. Cattle are considered to be the main reservoir of the bacteria. A better understanding of the epidemiology in the cattle population is necessary to be able to design and deploy targeted measures to reduce the VTEC O157 prevalence and, subsequently, human exposure. To explore the spread of VTEC O157 in the entire Swedish cattle population during the period under study, a within- and between-herd disease spread model was used. Real livestock data was incorporated to model demographics of the population. Cattle were moved between herds according to real movement data. The results showed that the spatial pattern in prevalence may be due to regional differences in livestock movements. However, the movements, births and slaughter of cattle could not explain the temporal pattern of VTEC O157 prevalence in cattle, despite their inherently distinct seasonality.

MESOSCOPIC MODELING OF STOCHASTIC REACTION-DIFFUSION KINETICS IN THE SUBDIFFUSIVE REGIME.

Subdiffusion has been proposed as an explanation of various kinetic phenomena inside living cells. In order to fascilitate large-scale computational studies of subdiffusive chemical processes, we extend a recently suggested mesoscopic model of subdiffusion into an accurate and consistent reaction-subdiffusion computational framework. Two different possible models of chemical reaction are revealed and some basic dynamic properties are derived. In certain cases those mesoscopic models have a direct interpretation at the macroscopic level as fractional partial differential equations in a bounded time interval. Through analysis and numerical experiments we estimate the macroscopic effects of reactions under subdiffusive mixing. The models display properties observed also in experiments: for a short time interval the behavior of the diffusion and the reaction is ordinary, in an intermediate interval the behavior is anomalous, and at long times the behavior is ordinary again.

ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF JUMP COEFFICIENTS IN DISCRETE STOCHASTIC DIFFUSION MODELS.

In computational systems biology, the mesoscopic model of reaction-diffusion kinetics is described by a continuous time, discrete space Markov process. To simulate diffusion stochastically, the jump coefficients are obtained by a discretization of the diffusion equation. Using unstructured meshes to represent complicated geometries may lead to negative coefficients when using piecewise linear finite elements. Several methods have been proposed to modify the coefficients to enforce the nonnegativity needed in the stochastic setting. In this paper, we present a method to quantify the error introduced by that change. We interpret the modified discretization matrix as the exact finite element discretization of a perturbed equation. The forward error, the error between the analytical solutions to the original and the perturbed equations, is bounded by the backward error, the error between the diffusion of the two equations. We present a backward analysis algorithm to compute the diffusion coefficient from a given discretization matrix. The analysis suggests a new way of deriving nonnegative jump coefficients that minimizes the backward error. The theory is tested in numerical experiments indicating that the new method is superior and also minimizes the forward error.

Stochastic focusing coupled with negative feedback enables robust regulation in biochemical reaction networks.

Nature presents multiple intriguing examples of processes that proceed with high precision and regularity. This remarkable stability is frequently counter to modellers' experience with the inherent stochasticity of chemical reactions in the regime of low-copy numbers. Moreover, the effects of noise and nonlinearities can lead to 'counterintuitive' behaviour, as demonstrated for a basic enzymatic reaction scheme that can display stochastic focusing (SF). Under the assumption of rapid signal fluctuations, SF has been shown to convert a graded response into a threshold mechanism, thus attenuating the detrimental effects of signal noise. However, when the rapid fluctuation assumption is violated, this gain in sensitivity is generally obtained at the cost of very large product variance, and this unpredictable behaviour may be one possible explanation of why, more than a decade after its introduction, SF has still not been observed in real biochemical systems. In this work, we explore the noise properties of a simple enzymatic reaction mechanism with a small and fluctuating number of active enzymes that behaves as a high-gain, noisy amplifier due to SF caused by slow enzyme fluctuations. We then show that the inclusion of a plausible negative feedback mechanism turns the system from a noisy signal detector to a strong homeostatic mechanism by exchanging high gain with strong attenuation in output noise and robustness to parameter variations. Moreover, we observe that the discrepancy between deterministic and stochastic descriptions of stochastically focused systems in the evolution of the means almost completely disappears, despite very low molecule counts and the additional nonlinearity due to feedback. The reaction mechanism considered here can provide a possible resolution to the apparent conflict between intrinsic noise and high precision in critical intracellular processes.

URDME: a modular framework for stochastic simulation of reaction-transport processes in complex geometries.

BACKGROUND: Experiments in silico using stochastic reaction-diffusion models have emerged as an important tool in molecular systems biology. Designing computational software for such applications poses several challenges. Firstly, realistic lattice-based modeling for biological applications requires a consistent way of handling complex geometries, including curved inner- and outer boundaries. Secondly, spatiotemporal stochastic simulations are computationally expensive due to the fast time scales of individual reaction- and diffusion events when compared to the biological phenomena of actual interest. We therefore argue that simulation software needs to be both computationally efficient, employing sophisticated algorithms, yet in the same time flexible in order to meet present and future needs of increasingly complex biological modeling. RESULTS: We have developed URDME, a flexible software framework for general stochastic reaction-transport modeling and simulation. URDME uses Unstructured triangular and tetrahedral meshes to resolve general geometries, and relies on the Reaction-Diffusion Master Equation formalism to model the processes under study. An interface to a mature geometry and mesh handling external software (Comsol Multiphysics) provides for a stable and interactive environment for model construction. The core simulation routines are logically separated from the model building interface and written in a low-level language for computational efficiency. The connection to the geometry handling software is realized via a Matlab interface which facilitates script computing, data management, and post-processing. For practitioners, the software therefore behaves much as an interactive Matlab toolbox. At the same time, it is possible to modify and extend URDME with newly developed simulation routines. Since the overall design effectively hides the complexity of managing the geometry and meshes, this means that newly developed methods may be tested in a realistic setting already at an early stage of development. CONCLUSIONS: In this paper we demonstrate, in a series of examples with high relevance to the molecular systems biology community, that the proposed software framework is a useful tool for both practitioners and developers of spatial stochastic simulation algorithms. Through the combined efforts of algorithm development and improved modeling accuracy, increasingly complex biological models become feasible to study through computational methods. URDME is freely available at http://www.urdme.org.