Comparative Analysis of Instrumental Variables on the Assignment of Buprenorphine/Naloxone or Methadone for the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorder.

BACKGROUND: Instrumental variable (IV) analysis provides an alternative set of identification assumptions in the presence of uncontrolled confounding when attempting to estimate causal effects. Our objective was to evaluate the suitability of measures of prescriber preference and calendar time as potential IVs to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of buprenorphine/naloxone versus methadone for treatment of opioid use disorder (OUD). METHODS: Using linked population-level health administrative data, we constructed five IVs: prescribing preference at the individual, facility, and region levels (continuous and categorical variables), calendar time, and a binary prescriber's preference IV in analyzing the treatment assignment-treatment discontinuation association using both incident-user and prevalent-new-user designs. Using published guidelines, we assessed and compared each IV according to the four assumptions for IVs, employing both empirical assessment and content expertise. We evaluated the robustness of results using sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The study sample included 35,904 incident users (43.3% on buprenorphine/naloxone) initiated on opioid agonist treatment by 1585 prescribers during the study period. While all candidate IVs were strong (A1) according to conventional criteria, by expert opinion, we found no evidence against assumptions of exclusion (A2), independence (A3), monotonicity (A4a), and homogeneity (A4b) for prescribing preference-based IV. Some criteria were violated for the calendar time-based IV. We determined that preference in provider-level prescribing, measured on a continuous scale, was the most suitable IV for comparative effectiveness of buprenorphine/naloxone and methadone for the treatment of OUD. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that prescriber's preference measures are suitable IVs in comparative effectiveness studies of treatment for OUD.

Estimating the epidemiological impact of reaching the objectives of the Florida integrated HIV prevention and care plan in Miami-Dade County.

Background: The US Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative aims to reduce national HIV incidence 90% by 2030 and to address the disproportionate burden of HIV among different racial/ethnic populations. Florida's state-wide 2022-2026 Integrated HIV Prevention and Care Plan outlines objectives for reaching EHE goals. In Miami-Dade County, we determined the epidemiological impact of achieving the integrated plan's objectives individually and jointly. Methods: We adapted an HIV transmission model calibrated to Miami-Dade County adjusting access to HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral treatment to model the effects of each objective between 2022 and 2030. We compared two service scale-up approaches: (a) scale-up proportionally to existing racial/ethnic group access levels, and (b) scale-up according to new diagnoses across racial/ethnic groups (equity-oriented). We estimated reductions in new HIV infections by each objective and approach, compared to the EHE's incidence reduction target. Findings: The single most influential strategy was reducing new HIV diagnoses in Hispanic/Latinx men who have sex with men through increased PrEP uptake, resulting in 907/2444 (37.1%) fewer annual new HIV infections in 2030. Achieving all objectives jointly would result in 1537/2444 (62.9%) and 1553/2444 (63.5%) fewer annual new HIV infections with the proportional and equity-oriented approaches, respectively. Interpretation: Achieving the goals of Florida's integrated care plan would significantly reduce HIV incidence in Miami-Dade County; however, further efforts are required to achieve EHE targets. Structural changes in service delivery and a focus on effective implementation of available interventions to address racial/ethnic disparities will be crucial to ending the HIV epidemic. Funding: This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health/National Institute on Drug Abuse grant no. R01-DA041747.

Virtual overdose monitoring services/mobile overdose response services: estimated number of potentially averted drug poisoning fatality events by various telephone and digital-based overdose prevention/harm reduction services in North America.

Background: Virtual overdose monitoring services or Mobile Overdose Response Services (MORS) are novel virtual harm reduction tools which have gained popularity as an adjunct public health intervention especially for those who cannot access harm reduction resources through traditional means. At this time, relatively little is known about their ability to reach their goals of reducing overdose mortality. Our study aims to summarize the potential effectiveness of various MORS collectively to avoid potential mortality from a drug poisoning event/drug overdose. Methods: Utilizing publicly available data from various MORS alongside some usage data provided by these services for this study, we model the impact of these services on fatal drug poisoning/overdose. In order to calculate the number of deaths averted, a Monte Carlo simulation was used to calculate point estimates with 95% confidence for fatal drug poisonings/drug overdose potentially averted through the utilization of various MORS. Results: From the earliest mention of MORS in current literature (2019), a total of 299 drug poisoning/overdose events occurred across these services. Noting the broad range of mortality statistics available in current literature, these technologies have potentially prevented between 33 to 243 deaths. Our Monte Carlo estimates 135 potentially fatal drug poisonings/overdose were overall averted by the various MORS. Conclusions: While there is yet to be a robust data set proving the effectiveness of these services, conservative estimates show that MORS can reduce mortality associated with substance use and therefore should be considered as a viable harm-reduction strategy but as an adjunct to more established harm reduction services such as supervised consumption sites and supervised injection facilities. While more research is needed, clinicians and practitioners should consider the suggestion of these tools for patients who use drugs.

A cost benefit analysis of a virtual overdose monitoring service/mobile overdose response service: the national overdose response service.

BACKGROUND: The overdose crisis continues across Canada which calls for novel harm reduction strategies. Previous research indicates that a majority of eHealth solutions are cost-effective however current literature on the cost-benefit of eHealth for harm reduction is sparse. The National Overdose Response Service (NORS) is a Canada-wide telephone-based harm reduction service. Service users can call the phone number and connect to a peer who can virtually monitor the substance use session and dispatch appropriate interventions in the case of overdose. OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH/PROJECT: We aim to assess the cost-benefit of NORS by comparing the estimated cost-savings from prevented overdose mortality to the operating costs of the program, alongside healthcare costs associated with its operation. METHODS: Data around systems costs and operational costs were gathered for our calculations. Our primary outcome was cost-benefit ratios, derived from estimates and models of mortality rates in current literature and value of life lost. We presented our main results across a range of values for costs and the probability of death following an unwitnessed overdose. These values were utilized to calculate cost-benefit ratios and value per dollar spent on service provision by NORS over the length of the program's operation (December 2020-2022). RESULTS: Over the total funded lifespan of the program, and using a Monte Carlo estimate, the benefit-to-cost ratio of the NORS program was 8.59 (1.53-15.28) per dollar spent, depending on estimated mortality rates following unwitnessed overdose and program operation costs. Further, we conservatively estimate that early community-based naloxone intervention results in healthcare system savings of $4470.82 per overdose response. CONCLUSIONS: We found the NORS program to have a positive benefit-to-cost ratio when the probability of death following an unwitnessed overdose was greater than 5%. NORS and potentially other virtual overdose monitoring services have the potential to be cost-effective solutions for managing the drug poisoning crisis.

Sensitivity to change of generic preference-based instruments (EQ-5D-3L, EQ-5D-5L, and HUI3) in the context of treatment for people with prescription-type opioid use disorder in Canada.

PURPOSE: Using data from a randomized controlled trial for treatment of prescription-type opioid use disorder in Canada, this study examines sensitivity to change in three preference-based instruments [EQ-5D-3L, EQ-5D-5L, and the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3)] and explores an oft-overlooked consideration when working with contemporaneous responses for similar questions-data quality. METHODS: Analyses focused on the relative abilities of three instruments to capture change in health status. Distributional methods were used to categorize individuals as 'improved' or 'not improved' for eight anchors (seven clinical, one generic). Sensitivity to change was assessed using area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curve (AUC) analysis and comparisons of mean change scores for three time periods. A 'strict' data quality criteria, defined a priori, was applied. Analyses were replicated using 'soft' and 'no' criteria. RESULTS: Data from 160 individuals were used in the analysis; 30% had at least one data quality violation at baseline. Despite mean index scores being significantly lower for the HUI3 compared with EQ-5D instruments at each time point, the magnitudes of change scores were similar. No instrument demonstrated superior sensitivity to change. While six of the 10 highest AUC estimates were for the HUI3, 'moderate' classifications of discriminative ability were identified in 12 (of 22) analyses for each EQ-5D instrument, compared with eight for the HUI3. CONCLUSION: Negligible differences were observed between the EQ-5D-3L, EQ-5D-5L, and HUI3 regarding the ability to measure change. The prevalence of data quality violations-which differed by ethnicity-requires further investigation.

Cost-effectiveness of flexible take-home buprenorphine-naloxone versus methadone for treatment of prescription-type opioid use disorder.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to examine the cost-effectiveness of flexible take-home buprenorphine-naloxone (BNX) versus methadone alongside the OPTIMA trial in Canada. METHODS: The OPTIMA study was a pragmatic, open-label, noninferiority, two-arm randomized controlled trial, to assess the comparative effectiveness of flexible take-home BNX vs. methadone in routine clinical care for individuals with prescription-type opioid use disorder. We evaluated cost-effectiveness using a semi-Markov cohort model. Probabilities of overdose were calibrated, accounting for fentanyl prevalence and other overdose risk factors such as naloxone availability. We considered health sector and societal cost perspectives, including costs (2020 CAD) for treatment, health resource use, criminal activity, and health state-specific preference weights as outcomes to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Six-month and lifetime (3% annual discount rate) time-horizons were explored. RESULTS: Over a lifetime time horizon, individuals accumulated -0.144 [CI: -0.302, -0.025] incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in BNX compared with methadone. Incremental costs were -$2047 [CI: -$39,197, $24,250] from a societal perspective, and -$4549 [CI: -$6332, -$3001] from a health sector perspective. Over a six-month time-horizon, individuals accumulated 0.002 [credible interval (CI): -0.011, 0.016] incremental QALYs in BNX compared with methadone. Incremental costs were -$307 [CI: -$10,385, $8466] from a societal perspective and -$1111 [CI: -$1517, -$631] from a health sector perspective. BNX was dominated (costlier, less effective) in 49.7% of simulations when adopting a societal perspective over a lifetime time horizon. CONCLUSIONS: Flexible take-home BNX was not cost-effective versus methadone over a lifetime time horizon, resulting from better treatment retention in methadone compared to BNX.

The Testing Imperative: Why the US Ending the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Epidemic Program Needs to Renew Efforts to Expand HIV Testing in Clinical and Community-Based Settings.

Data from several modeling studies demonstrate that large-scale increases in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing across settings with a high burden of HIV may produce the largest incidence reductions to support the US Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) initiative's goal of reducing new HIV infections 90% by 2030. Despite US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommendations for routine HIV screening within clinical settings and at least yearly screening for individuals most at risk of acquiring HIV, fewer than half of US adults report ever receiving an HIV test. Furthermore, total domestic funding for HIV prevention has remained unchanged between 2013 and 2019. The authors describe the evidence supporting the value of expanded HIV testing, identify challenges in implementation, and present recommendations to address these barriers through approaches at local and federal levels to reach EHE targets.

Translating and disseminating a localised economic model to support implementation of the 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' initiative to public health policymakers.

Background: Despite significant progress in HIV treatment and prevention, the US remains far from its goal of 'Ending the HIV Epidemic' by 2030. Economic models using local data can synthesise the evidence to help policymakers allocate HIV resources efficiently, but persistent research-to-practice gaps remain. Little is known about how to facilitate the use of economic modelling data among local public health policymakers in real-world settings. Aims and objectives: To explore the dissemination of results from a locally-calibrated economic model for HIV prevention and treatment and identify the factors influencing potential uptake of the model for public health decision making at the local level. Methods: Four virtual focus groups with 26 local health department policymakers in Baltimore, Miami, Seattle, and New York City were held between July 2020 and May 2021. Qualitative content analysis of transcripts identified key themes around using the localised economic model in policy decisions. Results: Participants were interested in using local data in their decisions to allocate resources for HIV prevention/treatment. Six themes emerged: 1) importance of understanding local policy context; 2) health equity considerations; 3) using evidence to support current priorities; 4) difficulty of changing strategies, even incrementally; 5) bang for the incremental buck (efficiency) vs. previous impact; and 6) community values. Conclusion and relevance: To optimise acceptance and use of results from economic models, researchers should engage with local community members and public health decision makers early to understand budgetary and community priorities. Participants prioritised evidence that supports their existing strategies, considers budgets and funding streams, and improves health equity; however, real-world budget constraints and conflicting interests serve as barriers to implementing model recommendations and reaching national goals.

Opioid analgesic prescribing for opioid-naïve individuals prior to identification of opioid use disorder in British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Prescription opioid analgesics have contributed to the development of opioid use disorder (OUD) in many individuals. We aimed to characterize non-cancer opioid prescribing for opioid-naive individuals prior to OUD identification. DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study using six linked health administrative databases. SETTING: British Columbia (BC), Canada. PARTICIPANTS: People with OUD between 1 January 2001 and 30 September 2018 who initiated opioid analgesic therapy for non-cancer pain prior to OUD identification. MEASUREMENTS: Dose (morphine milligram equivalent per day), days prescribed and clinical guideline non-concordance for initial opioid prescriptions (dose ≥ 90 morphine milligram equivalent per day; ≥ 7 days prescribed; concomitant sedative prescription). We estimated the probability of non-concordant initial prescriptions by source (inpatient post-discharge, non-inpatient acute, non-acute) using logistic regression, adjusting for individual characteristics and comorbidities. FINDINGS: Among 66 372 individuals identified with OUD from 2001 to 2018, 21 331 (32.1%) received opioid analgesics prior to OUD identification. This proportion increased from 3.0% in 2001 to 41.0% in 2011, before decreasing to 34.2% in 2017. Roughly half of opioid prescriptions were attributed to non-acute care visits, peaking at 56.8% in 2007, while the proportion from inpatient visits increased from 19.7% in 2001 to 28.5% in 2017. The predicted probability of receiving non-guideline concordant prescriptions declined over time-periods across all three measures for inpatient and non-inpatient acute care, while remaining stable for non-acute care. In particular, the predicted probability of receiving ≥ 7-day prescriptions following inpatient visits decreased from 53.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 50.9, 55.8%] in 2001-06 to 37.2% (95% CI = 33.9, 40.5%) in 2013-18. CONCLUSIONS: Among the 66 372 individuals in British Columbia, Canada diagnosed with opioid use disorder between 2001 and 2018, more than 32% were earlier prescribed non-cancer opioid analgesics. The proportion who had received an opioid analgesic prescription prior to OUD identification peaked at more than 40% in 2011, before stabilizing between 2011 and 2016 and declining thereafter. Guideline concordance improved over time for high-dose and concomitant sedative prescribing.

Prioritizing Additional Data Collection to Reduce Decision Uncertainty in the HIV/AIDS Response in 6 US Cities: A Value of Information Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The ambitious goals of the US Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative will require a targeted, context-specific public health response. Model-based economic evaluation provides useful guidance for decision making while characterizing decision uncertainty. We aim to quantify the value of eliminating uncertainty about different parameters in selecting combination implementation strategies to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS in 6 US cities and identify future data collection priorities. METHODS: We used a dynamic compartmental HIV transmission model developed for 6 US cities to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a range of combination implementation strategies. Using a metamodeling approach with nonparametric and deep learning methods, we calculated the expected value of perfect information, representing the maximum value of further research to eliminate decision uncertainty, and the expected value of partial perfect information for key groups of parameters that would be collected together in practice. RESULTS: The population expected value of perfect information ranged from $59 683 (Miami) to $54 108 679 (Los Angeles). The rank ordering of expected value of partial perfect information on key groups of parameters were largely consistent across cities and highest for parameters pertaining to HIV risk behaviors, probability of HIV transmission, health service engagement, HIV-related mortality, health utility weights, and healthcare costs. Los Angeles was an exception, where parameters on retention in pre-exposure prophylaxis ranked highest in contributing to decision uncertainty. CONCLUSIONS: Funding additional data collection on HIV/AIDS may be warranted in Baltimore, Los Angeles, and New York City. Value of information analysis should be embedded into decision-making processes on funding future research and public health intervention.

Ending the HIV Epidemic Among Persons Who Inject Drugs: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Six US Cities.

BACKGROUND: Persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at a disproportionately high risk of HIV infection. We aimed to determine the highest-valued combination implementation strategies to reduce the burden of HIV among PWID in 6 US cities. METHODS: Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, and Seattle, we assessed the value of implementing combinations of evidence-based interventions at optimistic (drawn from best available evidence) or ideal (90% coverage) scale-up. We estimated reduction in HIV incidence among PWID, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each city (10-year implementation; 20-year horizon; 2018 $ US). RESULTS: Combinations that maximized health benefits contained between 6 (Atlanta and Seattle) and 12 (Miami) interventions with ICER values ranging from $94 069/QALY in Los Angeles to $146 256/QALY in Miami. These strategies reduced HIV incidence by 8.1% (credible interval [CI], 2.8%-13.2%) in Seattle and 54.4% (CI, 37.6%-73.9%) in Miami. Incidence reduction reached 16.1%-75.5% at ideal scale. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-based interventions targeted to PWID can deliver considerable value; however, ending the HIV epidemic among PWID will require innovative implementation strategies and supporting programs to reduce social and structural barriers to care.

"Ending the Epidemic" Will Not Happen Without Addressing Racial/Ethnic Disparities in the United States Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic.

We estimated human immunodeficiency virus incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for black and Hispanic vs white populations in 6 cities in the United States (2020-2030). Large reductions in incidence are possible, but without elimination of disparities in healthcare access, we found that wide disparities persisted for black compared with white populations in particular (lowest IRR, 1.69 [95% credible interval, 1.19-2.30]).

Ending the HIV epidemic in the USA: an economic modelling study in six cities.

BACKGROUND: The HIV epidemic in the USA is a collection of diverse local microepidemics. We aimed to identify optimal combination implementation strategies of evidence-based interventions to reach 90% reduction of incidence in 10 years, in six US cities that comprise 24·1% of people living with HIV in the USA. METHODS: In this economic modelling study, we used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated with the best available evidence on epidemiological and structural conditions for six US cities: Atlanta (GA), Baltimore (MD), Los Angeles (CA), Miami (FL), New York City (NY), and Seattle (WA). We assessed 23 040 combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions (ie, HIV prevention, testing, treatment, engagement, and re-engagement) to identify combination strategies providing the greatest health benefit while remaining cost-effective. Main outcomes included averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), total cost (in 2018 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; from the health-care sector perspective, 3% annual discount rate). Interventions were implemented at previously documented and ideal (90% coverage or adoption) scale-up, and sustained from 2020 to 2030, with outcomes evaluated until 2040. FINDINGS: Optimal combination strategies providing health benefit and cost-effectiveness contained between nine (Seattle) and 13 (Miami) individual interventions. If implemented at previously documented scale-up, these strategies could reduce incidence by between 30·7% (95% credible interval 19·1-43·7; Seattle) and 50·1% (41·5-58·0; New York City) by 2030, at ICERs ranging from cost-saving in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami, to $95 416 per QALY in Seattle. Incidence reductions reached between 39·5% (26·3-53·8) in Seattle and 83·6% (70·8-87·0) in Baltimore at ideal implementation. Total costs of implementing strategies across the cities at previously documented scale-up reached $559 million per year in 2024; however, costs were offset by long-term reductions in new infections and delayed disease progression, with Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami projecting cost savings over the 20 year study period. INTERPRETATION: Evidence-based interventions can deliver substantial public health and economic value; however, complementary strategies to overcome social and structural barriers to HIV care will be required to reach national targets of the ending the HIV epidemic initiative by 2030. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

The impact of localized implementation: determining the cost-effectiveness of HIV prevention and care interventions across six United States cities.

OBJECTIVE: Effective interventions to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS can vary in their ability to deliver value at different levels of scale and in different epidemiological contexts. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment and prevention interventions implemented at previously documented scales of delivery in six US cities with diverse HIV microepidemics. DESIGN: Dynamic HIV transmission model-based cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS: We identified and estimated previously documented scale of delivery and costs for 16 evidence-based interventions from the US CDC's Compendium of Evidence-Based Interventions and Best Practices for HIV Prevention. Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City and Seattle, we estimated averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (healthcare perspective; 3% discount rate, 2018$US), for each intervention and city (10-year implementation) compared with the status quo over a 20-year time horizon. RESULTS: Increased HIV testing was cost-saving or cost-effective across cities. Targeted preexposure prophylaxis for high-risk MSM was cost-saving in Miami and cost-effective in Atlanta ($6123/QALY), Baltimore ($18 333/QALY) and Los Angeles ($86 117/QALY). Interventions designed to improve antiretroviral therapy initiation provided greater value than other treatment engagement interventions. No single intervention was projected to reduce HIV incidence by more than 10.1% in any city. CONCLUSION: Combination implementation strategies should be tailored to local epidemiological contexts to provide the most value. Complementary strategies addressing factors hindering access to HIV care will be necessary to meet targets for HIV elimination in the United States.

Geographic variation in the costs of medical care for people living with HIV in British Columbia, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Regional variation in medical care costs can indicate heterogeneity in clinical practice, inequities in access, or inefficiencies in service delivery. We aimed to estimate regional variation in medical costs for people living with HIV (PLHIV), adjusting for demographics and case-mix. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked health administrative databases of PLHIV, from 2010 to 2014, in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Quarterly health care costs (2018 CAD) were derived from inpatient, outpatient, prescription drugs, antiretroviral therapy (ART), and HIV diagnostics. We used a two-part model with a logit link for the probability of incurring costs, and a log link and gamma distribution for observations with positive costs. We also estimated quarterly utilization rates for hospitalization-, physician billing- and prescription drug-days. Primary variables were indicators of individuals' Health Service Delivery Area (HSDA). We adjusted cost and utilization estimates for demographic characteristics, HIV-disease progression, and comorbidities. RESULTS: Our cohort included 9577 PLHIV (median age 45.5 years, 80% male). Adjusted total quarterly costs for all 16 HSDAs were within 20% of the provincial mean, 8/16 for hospitalization costs, 16/16 for physician billing costs and 10/16 for prescription drug costs. Northern Interior and Northeast HSDAs had 38 and 44% lower quarterly non-ART prescription drug costs, and 2 and 5% higher quarterly inpatient costs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We observed limited variation in medical care costs and utilization among PLHIV in BC. However, lower levels of outpatient care and higher levels of inpatient care indicate possible barriers to accessing care among PLHIV in the most rural regions of the province.

Developing a dynamic HIV transmission model for 6 U.S. cities: An evidence synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic HIV transmission models can provide evidence-based guidance on optimal combination implementation strategies to treat and prevent HIV/AIDS. However, these models can be extremely data intensive, and the availability of good-quality data characterizing regional microepidemics varies substantially within and across countries. We aim to provide a comprehensive and transparent description of an evidence synthesis process and reporting framework employed to populate and calibrate a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model for six US cities. METHODS: We executed a mixed-method evidence synthesis strategy to populate model parameters in six categories: (i) initial HIV-negative and HIV-infected populations; (ii) parameters used to calculate the probability of HIV transmission; (iii) screening, diagnosis, treatment and HIV disease progression; (iv) HIV prevention programs; (v) the costs of medical care; and (vi) health utility weights for each stage of HIV disease progression. We identified parameters that required city-specific data and stratification by gender, risk group and race/ethnicity a priori and sought out databases for primary analysis to augment our evidence synthesis. We ranked the quality of each parameter using context- and domain-specific criteria and verified sources and assumptions with our scientific advisory committee. FINDINGS: To inform the 1,667 parameters needed to populate our model, we synthesized evidence from 59 peer-reviewed publications and 24 public health and surveillance reports and executed primary analyses using 11 data sets. Of these 1,667 parameters, 1,517 (91%) were city-specific and 150 (9%) were common for all cities. Notably, 1,074 (64%), 201 (12%) and 312 (19%) parameters corresponded to categories (i), (ii) and (iii), respectively. Parameters ranked as best- to moderate-quality evidence comprised 39% of the common parameters and ranged from 56%-60% across cities for the city-specific parameters. We identified variation in parameter values across cities as well as within cities across risk and race/ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Better integration of modelling in decision making can be achieved by systematically reporting on the evidence synthesis process that is used to populate models, and by explicitly assessing the quality of data entered into the model. The effective communication of this process can help prioritize data collection of the most informative components of local HIV prevention and care services in order to reduce decision uncertainty and strengthen model conclusions.

Heterogeneity in the costs of medical care among people living with HIV/AIDS in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: The costs of medical care for people with HIV/AIDS (PWH) vary substantially across demographic groups, stages of disease progression and regionally across the United States. We aimed to estimate medical costs for PWH and examine the heterogeneity in costs within key patient groups typically distinguished in cost-effectiveness analyses. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using health administrative databases for diagnosed PWH in care at 17 HIV Research Network sites across the United States. METHODS: We estimated mean quarterly costs for key patient groups using multivariable generalized linear mixed effects models. We used quantile regression to highlight differences in the effect of covariates within each patient group (difference between covariate estimates at the mean versus the 90th percentile of quarterly costs), identifying covariates with a larger effect among the highest cost PWH, or generating greater uncertainty in mean cost estimates. RESULTS: Our sample included 40 022 patients with a median age of 39 years. Mean quarterly costs were highest for people who inject drugs with advanced disease progression and for PWH on antiretroviral treatment (ART). Within patient groups, we found the most heterogeneity at different levels of resource use for PWH on ART and PWH off ART with CD4 cell counts less than 200 cells/µl, people who inject drugs, as well as PWH in the South. CONCLUSION: The study quantifies heterogeneity in costs both across and within key PWH patient groups. Our results highlight the need for sensitivity analysis on cost estimates and may inform decisions on model structure in cost-effectiveness analyses on HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention strategies.

Cost-Effectiveness of Publicly Funded Treatment of Opioid Use Disorder in California.

Background: Only 1 in 5 of the nearly 2.4 million Americans with an opioid use disorder received treatment in 2015. Fewer than half of Californians who received treatment in 2014 received opioid agonist treatment (OAT), and regulations for admission to OAT in California are more stringent than federal regulations. Objective: To determine the cost-effectiveness of OAT for all treatment recipients compared with the observed standard of care for patients presenting with opioid use disorder to California's publicly funded treatment facilities. Design: Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis. Data Sources: Linked population-level administrative databases capturing treatment and criminal justice records for California (2006 to 2010); published literature. Target Population: Persons initially presenting for publicly funded treatment of opioid use disorder. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Perspective: Societal. Intervention: Immediate access to OAT with methadone for all treatment recipients compared with the observed standard of care (54.3% initiate opioid use disorder treatment with medically managed withdrawal). Outcome Measures: Discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and discounted costs. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Immediate access to OAT for all treatment recipients costs less (by $78 257), with patients accumulating more QALYs (by 0.42) than with the observed standard of care. In a hypothetical scenario where all Californians starting treatment of opioid use disorder in 2014 had immediate access to OAT, total lifetime savings for this cohort could be as high as $3.8 billion. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: 99.6% of the 2000 simulations resulted in lower costs and more QALYs. Limitation: Nonrandomized delivery of OAT or medically managed withdrawal. Conclusion: The value of publicly funded treatment of opioid use disorder in California is maximized when OAT is delivered to all patients presenting for treatment, providing greater health benefits and cost savings than the observed standard of care. Primary Funding Source: National Institute on Drug Abuse.

The costs of crime associated with stimulant use in a Canadian setting.

BACKGROUND: Costs attributable to criminal activity are a major component of the economic burden of substance use disorders, yet there is a paucity of empirical evidence on this topic. Our aim was to estimate the costs of crime associated with different forms and intensities of stimulant use. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study, including individuals from three prospective cohorts in Vancouver, Canada, measured biannually (2011-2015), reporting stimulant use at baseline assessment. Monthly crime costs included policing, court, corrections, and criminal victimization (2016 CAD). We estimated monthly crime costs associated with mutually exclusive categories of crack, cocaine, methamphetamine, and polystimulant use, stratified by daily/non-daily use, relative to stimulant abstinence, as well as the independent effects of treatment (opioid agonist (OAT) and other addiction treatment). We used a two-part model, capturing the probability of criminal activity and costs of crime with generalized linear logistic and gamma regression models, respectively, controlling for age, gender, education, homelessness, mental health issues, employment, prior incarceration, alcohol and opioid use. RESULTS: The study sample included 1599 individuals (median age 39, 65.9% male) assessed over 5299 biannual interviews. Estimates of associated monthly crime costs ranged from $5449 [95% C.I.: $2180, $8719] for non-daily polystimulant use, to $8893 [$4196, $13,589] for daily polystimulant use. Cost differences between daily/non-daily use, injection/non-injection, and stimulant type were not statistically significant. Drug treatment was not associated with lower monthly crime costs in our sample. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial crime-related costs were associated with stimulant use, emphasizing the urgency for development and implementation of efficacious treatment regimens.