Post stroke intervention trial in fatigue (POSITIF): Randomised multicentre feasibility trial.

OBJECTIVE: To test the feasibility of a telephone delivered intervention, informed by cognitive behavioural principles, for post-stroke fatigue, and estimated its effect on fatigue and other outcomes. DESIGN: Randomised controlled parallel group trial. SETTING: Three Scottish stroke services. SUBJECTS: Stroke survivors with fatigue three months to two years post-stroke onset. INTERVENTIONS: Seven telephone calls (fortnightly then a 'booster session' at 16 weeks) of a manualised intervention, plus information about fatigue, versus information only. MAIN MEASURES: Feasibility of trial methods, and collected outcome measures (fatigue, mood, anxiety, social participation, quality of life, return to work) just before randomisation, at the end of treatment (four months after randomisation) and at six months after randomisation. RESULTS: Between October 2018 and January 2020, we invited 886 stroke survivors to participate in postal screening: 188/886 (21%) returned questionnaires and consented, of whom 76/188 (40%) were eligible and returned baseline forms; 64/76 (84%) returned six month follow-up questionnaires. Of the 39 allocated the intervention, 23 (59%) attended at least four sessions. At six months, there were no significant differences between the groups (adjusted mean differences in Fatigue Assessment Scale -0.619 (95% CI -4.9631, 3.694; p = 0.768), the Generalised Anxiety Disorder 7 -0.178 (95% CI -3.823, 3.467, p = 0.92), and the Patient Health Questionnaire -0.247 (95% CI -2.935, 2.442, p = 0.851). There were no between-group differences in quality of life, social participation or return to work. CONCLUSION: Patients can be recruited to a trial of this design. These data will inform the design of further trials in post-stroke fatigue.

Separation and the information theory surrogate evaluation approach: A penalised likelihood solution.

Surrogate evaluation is an important topic in clinical trials research, the use of a surrogate in place of a primary endpoint of interest is a common occurrence but also a contentious issue that is much debated. Statistical techniques to assess potential surrogates are closely scrutinised by the research community given the complexities of such an assessment. One such technique is the information theory surrogate evaluation approach which is well-established, practical and theoretically sound. In the context of discrete outcomes, we investigated issues of bias due to inefficiency, overfitting and separation (sparse data) that have not been recognised or addressed previously. The most serious cause of bias is separation in trial information. We outline the concerns surrounding this bias and conduct a simulation study to investigate whether a penalised likelihood technique provides an appropriate solution. We found that removing trials with separation from surrogacy evaluation resulted in a large amount of discarded data. Conversely, the penalised likelihood technique allows retention of all trial information and enables precise and reliable surrogate estimation. The information theory approach is a critical tool for conducting surrogate evaluation. This work strengthens the practical application of the information theory approach, allowing analyses to be adapted or the results summarised with appropriate caution to mitigate the biases highlighted. This is especially true where separation occurs. The adoption of the penalised likelihood technique into information theory surrogate evaluation is a useful addition that solves an issue likely to arise frequently in the context of categorical endpoints.

A smartphone-based test for the assessment of attention deficits in delirium: A case-control diagnostic test accuracy study in older hospitalised patients.

BACKGROUND: Delirium is a common and serious acute neuropsychiatric syndrome which is often missed in routine clinical care. Inattention is the core cognitive feature. Diagnostic test accuracy (including cut-points) of a smartphone Delirium App (DelApp) for assessing attention deficits was assessed in older hospital inpatients. METHODS: This was a case-control study of hospitalised patients aged ≥65 years with delirium (with or without pre-existing cognitive impairment), who were compared to patients with dementia without delirium, and patients without cognitive impairment. Reference standard delirium assessment, which included a neuropsychological test battery, was based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-5 criteria. A separate blinded assessor administered the DelApp arousal assessment (score 0-4) and attention task (0-6) yielding an overall score of 0 to 10 (lower scores indicate poorer performance). Analyses included receiver operating characteristic curves and sensitivity and specificity. Optimal cut-points for delirium detection were determined using Youden's index. RESULTS: A total of 187 patients were recruited, mean age 83.8 (range 67-98) years, 152 (81%) women; n = 61 with delirium; n = 61 with dementia without delirium; and n = 65 without cognitive impairment. Patients with delirium performed poorly on the DelApp (median score = 4/10; inter-quartile range 3.0, 5.5) compared to patients with dementia (9.0; 5.5, 10.0) and those without cognitive impairment (10.0; 10.0, 10.0). Area under the curve for detecting delirium was 0.89 (95% Confidence Interval 0.84, 0.94). At an optimal cut-point of ≤8, sensitivity was 91.7% (84.7%, 98.7%) and specificity 74.2% (66.5%, 81.9%) for discriminating delirium from the other groups. Specificity was 68.3% (56.6%, 80.1%) for discriminating delirium from dementia (cut-point ≤6). CONCLUSION: Patients with delirium (with or without pre-existing cognitive impairment) perform poorly on the DelApp compared to patients with dementia and those without cognitive impairment. A cut-point of ≤8/10 is suggested as having optimal sensitivity and specificity. The DelApp is a promising tool for assessment of attention deficits associated with delirium in older hospitalised adults, many of whom have prior cognitive impairment, and should be further validated in representative patient cohorts.

Evaluation of surrogacy in the multi-trial setting based on information theory: an extension to ordinal outcomes.

In clinical trials, surrogate outcomes are early measures of treatment effect that are used to predict treatment effect on a later primary outcome of interest: the primary outcome therefore does not need to be observed and trials can be shortened. Evaluating surrogates is a complex area as a given treatment can act through multiple pathways, some of which may circumvent the surrogate. One of the best established and practically sound approaches to surrogacy evaluation is based on information theory. We have extended this approach to the case of ordinal outcomes, which are used as primary outcomes in many medical areas. This extension provides researchers with the means of evaluating surrogates in this setting, which expands the usefulness of the information theory approach while also demonstrating its versatility.

Pathogenic outcome following experimental infection of sheep with Chlamydia abortus variant strains LLG and POS.

This study investigated the pathogenesis of two variant strains (LLG and POS) of Chlamydia abortus, in comparison to a typical wild-type strain (S26/3) which is known to be responsible for late term abortion in small ruminants. Challenge with the three strains at mid-gestation resulted in similar pregnancy outcomes, with abortion occurring in approximately 50-60% of ewes with the mean gestational lengths also being similar. However, differences were observed in the severity of placental pathology, with infection appearing milder for strain LLG, which was reflected in the lower number of organisms shed in vaginal swabs post-partum and less gross pathology and organisms present in placental smears. Results for strain POS were somewhat different than LLG with a more focal restriction of infection observed. Post-abortion antibody responses revealed prominent differences in seropositivity to the major outer membrane protein (MOMP) present in elementary body (EB) preparations under denaturing conditions, most notably with anti-LLG and anti-POS convalescent sera where there was no or reduced detection of MOMP present in EBs derived from the three strains. These results and additional analysis of whole EB and chlamydial outer membrane complex preparations suggest that there are conformational differences in MOMP for the three strains. Overall, the results suggest that gross placental pathology and clinical outcome is not indicative of bacterial colonization and the severity of infection. The results also highlight potential conformational differences in MOMP epitopes that perhaps impact on disease diagnosis and the development of new vaccines.

Evidence-based Pediatric Orthopaedics: How Safe is "Safe"?

BACKGROUND: The aim of minimizing the risks of complications and adverse events is at the center of surgical practice.This study aimed to assess the evidence on which pediatric orthopaedic surgical procedures are described as "safe." In particular, the objective was to ascertain the proportion of studies describing a procedure as "safe," which achieved a 95% upper limit confidence interval of risk of 5% or less for major adverse events. METHOD: A primary search of Journal of Paediatric Orthopaedics 2009 to 2014 for the single term "safe" returned 71 papers appropriate for analysis. Of these, 60 positively identified at least 1 intervention as "safe." These papers were analyzed and the number of interventions and the number of complications recorded. Data sets (n=67) were created and the 95% upper confidence interval calculated for the probability of a complication. RESULTS: Only 16 data sets (ex 67) provided evidence that the probability of a major complication was under 5%. CONCLUSIONS: This work suggests there is widespread failure of understanding of how low sample sizes or can lead to an unjustifiable claim that procedures are "safe." LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Unclassifiable.

Statistical approaches for evaluating surrogate outcomes in clinical trials: A systematic review.

The use of surrogate outcomes that predict treatment effect on an unobserved true outcome may have substantial economic and ethical advantages, through reducing the length and size of clinical trials. There has been extensive investigation of the best means of evaluating putative surrogates. We present a systematic review on the evolution of statistical methods for validating surrogates starting from the defining paper of Prentice (1989). We highlight the fundamental differences in the current statistical evaluation approaches, their advantages and disadvantages, and examine the understanding and perceptions of investigators in this area.

IGH@ translocations, CRLF2 deregulation, and microdeletions in adolescents and adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

PURPOSE: To determine the prevalence and prognostic impact of significant acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) -related genes: CRLF2 deregulation (CRLF2-d), IGH@ translocations (IGH@-t), and deletions of CDKN2A/B, IKZF1, PAX5, ETV6, RB1, BTG1, and EBF1 in adolescents and adults. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The cohort comprised 454 patients (age 15 to 60 years old) treated on the multicenter United Kingdom Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia Trial XII/Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 2993 trial (UKALLXII/ECOG2993) with Philadelphia-negative B-cell precursor ALL. Fluorescent in situ hybridization and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification were used to detect these genetic alterations. RESULTS: Twenty patients (5%) had CRLF2-d (P2RY8-CRLF2, n = 7; IGH@-CRLF2, n = 13), and 36 patients (8%) harbored an IGH@-t with a different partner gene. There was little overlap between IGH@-t, CRLF2-d, and established chromosomal abnormalities. Deletions of CDKN2A/B, IKZF1, PAX5, ETV6, RB1, BTG1, or EBF1 were prevalent with 101 (33%) of 304 patients harboring one and 102 (33%) harboring two or more alterations, occurring with varying frequency in all cytogenetic subgroups. The 5-year event-free survival, relapse-free survival (RFS), and overall survival (OS) rates for the whole cohort were 40%, 55%, and 43%, respectively. Patients with CRLF2-d, IGH@-t, and IKZF1 deletions were associated with an inferior outcome in univariate but not multivariate analysis. In particular, CRLF2-d patients had a lower RFS compared with other patients (30%), whereas those with IGH@-t or IKZF1 deletions had a lower OS (27% and 35%, respectively). CONCLUSION: CRLF2-d and IGH@-t represent distinct subtypes of adolescent and adult ALL. Deletions of key B-cell differentiation and cell cycle control genes are highly prevalent but vary in frequency by cytogenetic subgroup. CRLF2-d, IGH@-t, and IKZF1 deletions are associated with poor outcome in adolescent and adult ALL.

Treatment outcome of CRLF2-rearranged childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: a comparative analysis of the AIEOP-BFM and UK NCRI-CCLG study groups.

The prognostic relevance of CRLF2 -rearrangements in childhood acute B-cell precursor lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), was assessed by a comparative analysis of 114 non-Down-syndrome patients (99 P2RY8-CRLF2+ , 15 IGH@-CRLF2+ ), 76 from the AIEOP-BFM ALL 2000 and 38 from the MRC ALL97 trials. The 6-year cumulative relapse incidence of P2RY8-CRLF2+ patients treated on the two trials was not statistically different: 0·37 ± 0·06 vs. 0·25 ± 0·08 (P = 0·194). In contrast, 0/9 IGH@-CRLF2+ AIEOP-BFM, but 5/6 ALL97 patients relapsed. Conclusively, P2RY8-CRLF2+ patients had an intermediate protocol-independent outcome while the different prognosis of IGH@-CRLF2+ patients could be related to the different structures of the applied treatment protocols.

Genomic characterization implicates iAMP21 as a likely primary genetic event in childhood B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Intrachromosomal amplification of chromosome 21 (iAMP21) defines a distinct subgroup of childhood B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (BCP-ALL) that has a dismal outcome when treated with standard therapy. For improved diagnosis and risk stratification, the initiating genetic events need to be elucidated. To investigate the genetic basis of BCP-ALL, genomes of 94 iAMP21 patients were interrogated by arrays, FISH, and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification. Most copy number alterations targeted chromosome 21, reinforcing the complexity of this chromosome. The common region of amplification on chromosome 21 was refined to a 5.1-mb region that included RUNX1, miR-802, and genes mapping to the Down syndrome critical region. Recurrent abnormalities affecting genes in key pathways were identified: IKZF1 (22%), CDKN2A/B (17%), PAX5 (8%), ETV6 (19%), and RB1 (37%). Investigation of clonal architecture provided evidence that these abnormalities, and P2RY8-CRLF2, were secondary to chromosome 21 rearrangements. Patient outcome was uniformly poor with standard therapy irrespective of the presence or absence of these changes. This study has provided evidence that chromosome 21 instability is the only anomaly among those so far investigated that is common to all iAMP21 patients, and therefore the initiating event is likely to be found among the complex structural rearrangements of this abnormal chromosome.

Analysis of a breakpoint cluster reveals insight into the mechanism of intrachromosomal amplification in a lymphoid malignancy.

A distinct sub-group of B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia, defined by intrachromosomal amplification of chromosome 21 (iAMP21), is restricted to older children and has been associated with a poor outcome. Accurate diagnosis is important for appropriate risk stratification for treatment. It could be improved by understanding the initiating mechanism. iAMP21 is characterized by amplification of a 5.1-24 Mb region of chromosome 21, which includes the RUNX1 gene. It is thought to arise through a breakage-fusion-bridge (BFB) mechanism. Breakpoints initiating BFB cycles were determined from recent array data from 18 patients. Three occurred within the PDE9A gene. Other patients with breakpoints in PDE9A were identified by fluorescence in situ hybridization and molecular copy number counting. Sequencing defined a 1.7 Kb breakpoint cluster region, positioned 400 bp distal to an extensive region enriched for CA repeats with the potential to form Z-DNA. None of the rearranged sequences showed the inverted repeat structure characteristic of BFB; instead PDE9A was fused to intergenic regions of chromosome 21 or to genes on other chromosomes. These observations indicated that previously unrecognized complex events, involving microhomology-mediated end joining, preceded or accompanied initiation of the BFB cycle. A chi-like heptomer, CCTCAGC, contained four of the breakpoints, two within PDE9A and two within partner Alu-repeat sequences. This heptomer was closely homologous to a breakpoint hotspot within the TCF3 gene, suggesting involvement of a common novel recombinogenic mechanism that might also contribute to the recombinogenic potential of Alu repeats. These findings provide insight into potential mechanisms involved in the formation of iAMP21.

Demographic, clinical, and outcome features of children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia and CRLF2 deregulation: results from the MRC ALL97 clinical trial.

Deregulated expression of CRLF2 (CRLF2-d) arises via its juxtaposition to the IGH@ enhancer or P2RY8 promoter. Among 865 BCP-ALL children treated on MRC ALL97, 52 (6%) had CRLF2-d, but it was more prevalent among Down syndrome patients (54%). P2RY8-CRLF2 (n = 43) was more frequent than IGH@-CRLF2 (n = 9). CRLF2-d was not associated with age, sex, or white cell count, but IGH@-CRLF2 patients were older than P2RY8-CRLF2 patients (median 8 vs 4 years, P = .0017). Patients with CRLF2-d were more likely to present with enlarged livers and spleens (38% vs 18%, P < .001). CRLF2-d was not seen in conjunction with established chromosomal translocations but 6 (12%) cases had high hyperdiploidy, and 5 (10%) had iAMP21. Univariate analysis suggested that CRLF2-d was associated with an inferior outcome: (event-free survival [EFS] hazard ratio 2.27 [95% confidence interval 1.48-3.47], P < .001; OS 3.69 [2.34-5.84], P < .001). However, multivariate analysis indicated that its effect was mediated by other risk factors such as cytogenetics and DS status (EFS 1.45 [0.88-2.39], P = .140; OS 1.90 [1.08-3.36], P = .027). Although the outcome of IGH@-CRLF2 patients appeared inferior compared with P2RY8-CRLF2 patients, the result was not significant (EFS 2.69 [1.15-6.31], P = .023; OS 2.86 [1.15-6.79], P = .021). Therefore, we concluded that patients with CRLF2-d should be classified into the intermediate cytogenetic risk group.

Prognostic effect of chromosomal abnormalities in childhood B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: results from the UK Medical Research Council ALL97/99 randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Chromosomal abnormalities in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia are well established disease markers and indicators of outcomes. However, the long-term prognosis and independent prognostic effect of some abnormalities has been questioned. Also, little is known about the association between cytogenetics and the characteristics of relapse (eg, time and site of relapse) that are known to predict outcome after relapse. METHODS: We analysed cytogenetic data from 1725 children with B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukaemia who were included in the UK Medical Research Council ALL97/99 study and followed up for a median time of 8.2 years. Univariate and multivariate analysis were done to examine risk of relapse, event-free survival, and overall survival associated with 21 chromosomal abnormalities and three cytogenetic risk groups constructed from these data. FINDINGS: Two chromosomal abnormalities were associated with a significantly better outcome (ETV6-RUNX1, hazard ratio [HR] 0.51, 95% CI 0.38-0.70 and high hyperdiploidy, 0.60, 0.47-0.78), whereas five abnormalities were associated with an increased risk of relapse (intrachromosomal amplification of chromosome 21 [iAMP21], 6.04, 3.90-9.35; t(9;22), 3.55, 2.21-5.72; MLL translocations, 2.98, 1.71-5.20; abnormal 17p, 2.09, 1.30-3.37; and loss of 13q, 1.87, 1.09-3.20). Multivariate analysis incorporating age, white-cell count, and treatment parameters showed that six cytogenetic abnormalities (ETV6-RUNX1, high hyperdiploidy, iAMP21, t(9;22), loss of 13q, and abnormal 17p) retained their significance for effect on relapse risk. Based on these data, patients were classified into good, intermediate, and poor cytogenetic risk groups. Slow early treatment response correlated with cytogenetic risk group: 34 of 460 (7%) in the good-risk group, 22 of 211 (10%) in the intermediate-risk group, and 27 of 95 (28%) in the poor-risk group had a slow response (p<0.0001). Additionally, the proportion of patients with a very early (<18 months) relapse varied by cytogenetic risk group: eight of 129 (6%) patients in the good-risk group had a very early relapse, compared with 24 of 98 (24%) in the intermediate-risk group, and 37 of 82 (45%) in the poor-risk group (p<0.0001). However, there was no difference in the site of relapse by cytogenetic risk group. INTERPRETATION: Individual chromosomal abnormalities are strong independent indicators of outcome, especially risk of relapse. Diagnostic cytogenetics identifies patients with a higher rate of relapse and those who are likely to have a high-risk relapse. FUNDING: Leukaemia and Lymphoma Research (LLR).

A population-based cytogenetic study of adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Chromosomal abnormalities are increasingly used to risk stratify adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Published data describing the age-specific incidence of chromosomal abnormalities and their prognostic relevance are largely derived from clinical trials. Trials frequently have age restrictions and low recruitment rates. Thus we investigated these factors in a population-based cohort of 349 patients diagnosed during the course of 19 years in the northern part of England. The incidence of most chromosomal abnormalities varied significantly with age. The incidence of t(9;22)(q34;q11) increased in each successive decade, up to 24% among 40- to 49-year-old subjects. Thereafter the incidence reached a plateau. t(4;11)(q21;q23) and t(1;19)(q23;p13) were a rare occurrence among patients older than 60 years of age. In contrast, the frequency of t(8;14)(q24;q32) and t(14;18)(q32;q21) increased with age. High hyperdiploidy occurred in 13% of patients younger than 20 years of age but in only 5% of older patients. The incidence of low hypodiploidy/near-triploidy and complex karyotype increased with age from 4% (15-29 years) to 16% (>or= 60 years). Overall survival varied significantly by age and cytogenetics. Older patients and those with t(9;22), t(4;11), low hypodiploidy/near-triploidy, or complex karyotype had a significantly inferior outcome. These population-based results demonstrate the cytogenetic heterogeneity of adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia. These data will inform the delivery of routine clinical services and the design of new age-focused clinical trials.