Association of Acute Respiratory Disease Events with Quantitative Interstitial Abnormality Progression at CT in Individuals with a History of Smoking.

Background Acute respiratory disease (ARD) events are often thought to be airway-disease related, but some may be related to quantitative interstitial abnormalities (QIAs), which are subtle parenchymal abnormalities on CT scans associated with morbidity and mortality in individuals with a smoking history. Purpose To determine whether QIA progression at CT is associated with ARD and severe ARD events in individuals with a history of smoking. Materials and Methods This secondary analysis of a prospective study included individuals with a 10 pack-years or greater smoking history recruited from multiple centers between November 2007 and July 2017. QIA progression was assessed between baseline (visit 1) and 5-year follow-up (visit 2) chest CT scans. Episodes of ARD were defined as increased cough or dyspnea lasting 48 hours and requiring antibiotics or corticosteroids, whereas severe ARD episodes were those requiring an emergency room visit or hospitalization. Episodes were recorded via questionnaires completed every 3 to 6 months. Multivariable logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models adjusted for comorbidities (eg, emphysema, small airway disease) were used to assess the association between QIA progression and episodes between visits 1 and 2 (intercurrent) and after visit 2 (subsequent). Results A total of 3972 participants (mean age at baseline, 60.7 years ± 8.6 [SD]; 2120 [53.4%] women) were included. Annual percentage QIA progression was associated with increased odds of one or more intercurrent (odds ratio [OR] = 1.29 [95% CI: 1.06, 1.56]; P = .01) and subsequent (OR = 1.26 [95% CI: 1.05, 1.52]; P = .02) severe ARD events. Participants in the highest quartile of QIA progression (≥1.2%) had more frequent intercurrent ARD (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.46 [95% CI: 1.14, 1.86]; P = .003) and severe ARD (IRR = 1.79 [95% CI: 1.18, 2.73]; P = .006) events than those in the lowest quartile (≤-1.7%). Conclusion QIA progression was independently associated with higher odds of severe ARD events during and after radiographic progression, with higher frequency of intercurrent severe events in those with faster progression. Clinical trial registration no. NCT00608764 © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Little in this issue.

Utility of peripheral protein biomarkers for the prediction of incident interstitial features: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION/RATIONALE: Protein biomarkers may help enable the prediction of incident interstitial features on chest CT. METHODS: We identified which protein biomarkers in a cohort of smokers (COPDGene) differed between those with and without objectively measured interstitial features at baseline using a univariate screen (t-test false discovery rate, FDR p<0.001), and which of those were associated with interstitial features longitudinally (multivariable mixed effects model FDR p<0.05). To predict incident interstitial features, we trained four random forest classifiers in a two-thirds random subset of COPDGene: (1) imaging and demographic information, (2) univariate screen biomarkers, (3) multivariable confirmation biomarkers and (4) multivariable confirmation biomarkers available in a separate testing cohort (Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS)). We evaluated classifier performance in the remaining one-third of COPDGene, and, for the final model, also in PLuSS. RESULTS: In COPDGene, 1305 biomarkers were available and 20 differed between those with and without interstitial features at baseline. Of these, 11 were associated with feature progression over a mean of 5.5 years of follow-up, and of these 4 were available in PLuSS, (angiopoietin-2, matrix metalloproteinase 7, macrophage inflammatory protein 1 alpha) over a mean of 8.8 years of follow-up. The area under the curve (AUC) of classifiers using demographics and imaging features in COPDGene and PLuSS were 0.69 and 0.59, respectively. In COPDGene, the AUC of the univariate screen classifier was 0.78 and of the multivariable confirmation classifier was 0.76. The AUC of the final classifier in COPDGene was 0.75 and in PLuSS was 0.76. The outcome for all of the models was the development of incident interstitial features. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple novel and previously identified proteomic biomarkers are associated with interstitial features on chest CT and may enable the prediction of incident interstitial diseases such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Proteomics and Machine Learning in the Prediction and Explanation of Low Pectoralis Muscle Area.

Low muscle mass is associated with numerous adverse outcomes independent of other associated comorbid diseases. We aimed to predict and understand an individual's risk for developing low muscle mass using proteomics and machine learning. We identified 8 biomarkers associated with low pectoralis muscle area (PMA). We built 3 random forest classification models that used either clinical measures, feature selected biomarkers, or both to predict development of low PMA. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for each model was: clinical-only = 0.646, biomarker-only = 0.740, and combined = 0.744. We displayed the heterogenetic nature of an individual's risk for developing low PMA and identified 2 distinct subtypes of participants who developed low PMA. While additional validation is required, our methods for identifying and understanding individual and group risk for low muscle mass could be used to enable developments in the personalized prevention of low muscle mass.

Quantitative Interstitial Abnormality Progression and Outcomes in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD and Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors and clinical outcomes of quantitative interstitial abnormality progression over time have not been characterized. RESEARCH QUESTIONS: What are the associations of quantitative interstitial abnormality progression with lung function, exercise capacity, and mortality? What are the demographic and genetic risk factors for quantitative interstitial abnormality progression? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Quantitative interstitial abnormality progression between visits 1 and 2 was assessed from 4,635 participants in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) cohort and 1,307 participants in the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS) cohort. We used multivariable linear regression to determine the risk factors for progression and the longitudinal associations between progression and FVC and 6-min walk distance, and Cox regression models for the association with mortality. RESULTS: Age at enrollment, female sex, current smoking status, and the MUC5B minor allele were associated with quantitative interstitial abnormality progression. Each percent annual increase in quantitative interstitial abnormalities was associated with annual declines in FVC (COPDGene: 8.5 mL/y; 95% CI, 4.7-12.4 mL/y; P < .001; PLuSS: 9.5 mL/y; 95% CI, 3.7-15.4 mL/y; P = .001) and 6-min walk distance, and increased mortality (COPDGene: hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.34-2.12; P < .001; PLuSS: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.10-1.49; P = .001). INTERPRETATION: The objective, longitudinal measurement of quantitative interstitial abnormalities may help identify people at greatest risk for adverse events and most likely to benefit from early intervention.