Potential distribution of the viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus in the Great Lakes region.

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype IVb has been responsible for large-scale fish mortality events in the Great Lakes of North America. Anticipating the areas of potential VHSV occurrence is key to designing epidemiological surveillance and disease prevention strategies in the Great Lakes basin. We explored the environmental features that could shape the distribution of VHSV, based on remote sensing and climate data via ecological niche modelling. Variables included temperature measured during the day and night, precipitation, vegetation, bathymetry, solar radiation and topographic wetness. VHSV occurrences were obtained from available reports of virus confirmation in laboratory facilities. We fit a Maxent model using VHSV-IVb reports and environmental variables under different parameterizations to identify the best model to determine potential VHSV occurrence based on environmental suitability. VHSV reports were generated from both passive and active surveillance. VHSV occurrences were most abundant near shore sites. We were, however, able to capture the environmental signature of VHSV based on the environmental variables employed in our model, allowing us to identify patterns of VHSV potential occurrence. Our findings suggest that VHSV is not at an ecological equilibrium and more areas could be affected, including areas not in close geographic proximity to past VHSV reports.

Dog ownership, abundance and potential for bat-borne rabies spillover in Chile.

Rabies is a viral infectious disease that affects all mammals, including humans. Factors associated with the incidence of rabies include the presence and density of susceptible hosts and potential reservoirs. Currently, Chile is declared free of canine-related rabies, but there is an overpopulation of dogs within the country and an emergence of rabies in bats. Our objectives are to determine potential areas for bat-borne rabies spillover into dog populations expressed as a risk map, and to explore some key features of dog ownership, abundance, and management in Chile. For the risk map, our variables included a dog density surface (dog/km(2)) and a distribution model of bat-borne rabies presence. From literature review, we obtained dog data from 112 municipalities, which represent 33% of the total municipalities (339). At country level, based on previous studies the median human per dog ratio was 4.8, with 64% of houses containing at least one dog, and a median of 0.9 dog per house. We estimate a national median of 5.3 dog/km(2), and a median of 3680 dogs by municipality, from which we estimate a total population of 3.5×10(6) owned dogs. The antirabies vaccination presented a median of 21% of dogs by municipality, and 29% are unrestricted to some degree. Human per dog ratio have a significant (but weak) negative association with human density. Unrestricted dogs have a negative association with human density and income, and a positive association with the number of dogs per house. Considering dog density by municipality, and areas of potential bat-borne rabies occurrence, we found that 163 (∼48%) of Chilean municipalities are at risk of rabies spillover from bats to dogs. Risk areas are concentrated in urban settlements, including Santiago, Chile's capital. To validate the risk map, we included cases of rabies in dogs from the last 27 years; all fell within high-risk areas of our map, confirming the assertive risk prediction. Our results suggest that the use of dog population parameters may be informative to determine risk areas for bat-rabies spillover events. In addition, we confirm that dog abundance is a neglected and emerging public health concern in Chile, particularly within urban areas, which deserves prompt intervention.

Spatial and temporal trends of bat-borne rabies in Chile.

In Chile, while dog rabies has decreased markedly over the last 30 years, bat rabies is still reported frequently. In order to shed new light on the spatiotemporal trends of these reports, we analysed active and passive data from years 1985 and 2012, which included 61 076 samples from 289 counties of Chile. We found that from 1994 to 2012, more than 15 000 bat samples were submitted for diagnostics through passive surveillance, 9·5% of which tested positive for rabies. By contrast, the prevalence of infection was only ~0·4% among the nearly 12 000 bat samples submitted through active surveillance. We found that the prevalence of dog rabies dropped steadily over the same period, with just a single confirmed case since 1998. None of the 928 samples from wild animals, other than bats, were positive for rabies. Although there has been only one confirmed case of human rabies in Chile since 1985, and a single confirmed case in a dog since 1998, bats remain a reservoir for rabies viruses. While active surveillance indicates that rabies prevalence is low in bat colonies, the high proportion of positive bats submitted through passive surveillance is a concern. To prevent human rabies, local public health agencies should increase research on the basic ecology of bats and the role of stray dogs and cats as potential rabies amplifiers.

The HLA system in the prevalent Mexican Indian group: the Nahuas.

Results of HLA-A, B and C typing as well as haplotype frequencies in the Nahuas, who are the predominant Indian group in Mexico are presented. ABO and Rh blood groups show the genetic homogeneity of this population, since all of them were group O and Rh+. The most frequent antigens and haplotype are in general, the same as in some, but not all Amerindian tribes (Papago, Pimas, Zuñi from North America and Ixils from Guatemala). When compared to other Mongoloids, the HLA pattern is very close to the Japanese population. Antigens Bw39 and Cw4 look like markers of Nahuas and because Bw16 cells from four individuals could not be assigned either as Bw38 or Bw39, and 6 subjects did not type for any of the Bw22 splits, new subtypes of these antigens are probable.

HLA-DR antigens in Mexican patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome.

The distribution of HLA-DR antigens was investigated in 38 Mexican Mestizo patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) and in 100 healthy controls belonging to the same population. IgG, IgM, IgA, CH50, C3, C4 and the number of T and B lymphocytes were also evaluated in the patients. Only DR3 was significantly increased in the patients (Yates' chi 2 = 9.943, Pc = 0.014) and the relative risk for developing the disease was 3.49. These findings support the hypothesis that DR3 or a closely linked Ir gene may play some role in the susceptibility to GBS.