Prediction of hematocrit decline and the impact of peri-operative fluid use in lumbar spinal fusion surgery.

PURPOSE: Peri-operative blood loss unaccounted for and post-operative hematocrit decline could have a significant impact on the outcome of elective spinal surgery patients. The study assesses the accuracy of predictive models of hematocrit decline and blood loss in spinal surgery and determines the impact of peri-operative fluid administration on hematocrit levels of patients undergoing first-time single level lumbar fusion surgery for degenerative spine disease and the trend thereof in the first 24 h post-operatively. METHODS: Clinical and biochemical parameters were prospectively collected in patients undergoing single level lumbar spinal surgery. Predictive models were applied to assess their accuracy in intra-operative blood loss and post-operative hematocrit decline. RESULTS: High correlation (0.98 Pearson correlation coefficient) occurred between calculated (predicted) and recorded hematocrit from hours 2 to 6 post-operatively. Predictive accuracy declined thereafter yet remained moderate. Patients received an average intra-operative fluid volume of 545.45 ml per hour (47% of estimated total blood volume). A significant hematocrit decline occurred post-induction (43.47-39.78%, p < 0.001) with total fluid volume received being the significant contributing variable (p < 0.001). Hypertensive patients were the only subgroup to drop below the safe hematocrit threshold of 30%. CONCLUSION: Iatrogenic hemodilution can accurately be predicted for the first six hours post-operatively, with high risk patients identifiable. Fluid therapy should be goal directed rather than generic, and good communication between the surgeon and anesthesiologist remains the cornerstone to manage physiological changes secondary to blood loss. Although helpful, predictive formulas are not universally applicable to all phenotypes.

Recognition of infants at high risk for vertical HIV transmission at delivery in rural Western Cape Province, South Africa.

Background: Despite South Africa's substantial reduction in vertical HIV transmission (VHT), national paediatric HIV elimination is not yet attained. National and Western Cape Province (WC) HIV guidelines recommend enhanced postnatal prophylaxis for infants at high risk for VHT, identified in the WC 2015/2016 guidelines by any single high-risk criterion (maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) <12 weeks, absent/ unsuppressed maternal HIV viral load (HIV-VL) <12 weeks before/including delivery, spontaneous preterm labour, prolonged rupture of membranes, chorioamnionitis). Accuracy of high-risk infant identification is unknown. Objectives: Primarily, to determine the proportion of infants at high risk for VHT, the accuracy of labour-ward risk classification, the criteria determining high-risk statuses and the criteria missed among unrecognised high-risk infants; secondarily, to determine maternal factors associated with high-risk infants. Methods: Infants born to women living with HIV at a rural regional hospital (May 2016 - April 2017) were retrospectively evaluated using data from the labour ward VHT register, standardised maternity case records, National Health Laboratory Service database and WC Provincial Health Data Centre. The study-derived risk status for each infant was determined using documented presence/absence of risk criteria and compared with labour ward assigned risk to determine accuracy. Proportions of high-risk and unrecognised high-risk infants with each high-risk criterion were determined. Maternal characteristics associated with having a high-risk infant were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. Results: For liveborn infants, labour ward assigned risk classifications were 40% (n=75/188) high risk, 50% (n=94/188) low risk and 10% (n=19/188) unclassified. Study-derived risk was high risk for 69% (n=129/188) and low risk for 31% (n=59/188), yielding a high-risk classification sensitivity of 51% (95% confidence interval (CI) 42 - 60) and specificity of 69% (95% CI 56 - 80). Absent/unsuppressed HIVVL <12 weeks before delivery accounted for 83% (n=119/143) of study-derived high-risk exposures and 81% (n=60/74) of missed high-risk exposures. Fewer mothers of high-risk infants had >4 antenatal visits (38% v. 81%, p<0.01) and first antenatal visit <20 weeks' gestation (57% v. 77%, p=0.01). Only the number of antenatal visits remained associated with having a high-risk infant after adjusting for gestation at first visit and timing of HIV diagnosis and ART initiation: each additional antenatal visit conferred a 39% (95% CI 25 - 50) reduction in the odds of having a high-risk infant. Conclusion: Labour ward risk classification failed to recognise half of high-risk infants. Infant high-risk status as well as non-detection thereof were driven by suboptimal maternal HIV-VL monitoring. Reinforcing visit frequency later in pregnancy may improve antenatal HIV-VL monitoring, and point-of-care HIV-VL monitoring at delivery could improve recognition of virally unsuppressed mothers and their high-risk infants.

Traumatic brain injury: Association between the Glasgow Coma Scale score and intensive care unit mortality.

Background: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) prevalence in Botswana is high and this, coupled with a small population, may reduce productivity. There is no previous study in Botswana on the association between mortality from TBI and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score although global literature supports its existence. Objectives: Our primary aim was to determine the association between the initial GCS score and the time to mortality of adults admitted with TBI at the Princess Marina Hospital, Gaborone, Botswana, between 2014 and 2019. Secondary aims were to assess the risk factors associated with time to mortality and to estimate the mortality rate from TBI. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort design, medical record census conducted from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2019. Results: In total, 137 participants fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and the majority, 114 (83.2%), were male with a mean age of 34.5 years. The initial GCS score and time to mortality were associated (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.69; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.508 - 0.947). Other factors associated with time to mortality included constricted pupil (aHR 0.12; 95% CI 0.044 - 0.344), temperature (aHR 0.82; 95% CI 0.727 - 0.929), and subdural haematoma (aHR 3.41; 95% CI 1.819 - 6.517). Most cases of TBI (74 (54%)) were due to road traffic accidents. The number of deaths was 48 (35% (95% CI 27.1% - 43.6%)), entirely due to severe TBI. Conclusion: The study confirmed significant association between GCS and mortality. Males were mainly involved in TBI. These findings lack external validity because of the small sample size, and therefore a larger multicentre study is required for validation. Contributions of the study: This study informs the relevant stakeholders in Botswana about sociodemographics, clinical characteristics, management and outcomes of patients admitted to the ICU with severe TBI on the backdrop of scarce ICU resources. It provides a basis for a larger study to inform its external validation.

The Association of Clinical Characteristics and Tumour Markers With Image-Defined Risk Factors in the Management of Neuroblastoma in South Africa.

AIMS: Image-defined risk factors (IDRFs) in neuroblastoma predict surgical complications and management outcomes. As there is a lack of data regarding the association of IDRFs with clinical and pathological factors, this study evaluated the prognostic value of IDRFs to predict neuroblastoma survival outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective study including 345 patients and reviewed diagnostic imaging for 20 IDRFs, pleural effusions and ascites. The IDRFs were grouped into five 'primary IDRFs' cohorts with vascular encasement, involvement of multiple body compartments, organ infiltration, airway obstruction and intraspinal extension. The association between clinical, histopathological and biological characteristics of neuroblastoma and management was evaluated. RESULTS: More patients without IDRFs had operations compared with patients with IDRFs, with a trend towards significance (64.4% versus 35.6%, P = 0.082). Patients with multiple compartment tumour involvement (P = 0.003) and organ infiltration (P < 0.001) had a higher risk of surgical complications. The 5-year overall survival of the group with more than one IDRF was 0.0% and those with pleural effusions or ascites 6.7%, associated with the worst outcome (P = 0.005). The total number of IDRFs was not predictive of the metastatic remission rate (P = 0.585) or overall survival (P = 0.142), with no conclusive association found between IDRF groups and clinical or biological markers. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with more than one IDRF had the shortest survival time, whereas those with pleural effusions and ascites at diagnosis had a poor outcome. Standardised reporting of IDRFs is crucial for predicting prognosis.

Recognition of infants at high risk for vertical HIV transmission at delivery in rural Western Cape Province, South Africa

Despite South Africa's substantial reduction in vertical HIV transmission (VHT), national paediatric HIV elimination is not yet attained. National and Western Cape Province (WC) HIV guidelines recommend enhanced postnatal prophylaxis for infants at high risk for VHT, identified in the WC 2015/2016 guidelines by any single high-risk criterion (maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) <12 weeks, absent/ unsuppressed maternal HIV viral load (HIV-VL) <12 weeks before/including delivery, spontaneous preterm labour, prolonged rupture of membranes, chorioamnionitis). Accuracy of high-risk infant identification is unknown. Objectives. Primarily, to determine the proportion of infants at high risk for VHT, the accuracy of labour-ward risk classification, the criteria determining high-risk statuses and the criteria missed among unrecognised high-risk infants; secondarily, to determine maternal factors associated with high-risk infants. Methods. Infants born to women living with HIV at a rural regional hospital (May 2016 - April 2017) were retrospectively evaluated using data from the labour ward VHT register, standardised maternity case records, National Health Laboratory Service database and WC Provincial Health Data Centre. The study-derived risk status for each infant was determined using documented presence/absence of risk criteria and compared with labour ward assigned risk to determine accuracy. Proportions of high-risk and unrecognised high-risk infants with each high-risk criterion were determined. Maternal characteristics associated with having a high-risk infant were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. Results. For liveborn infants, labour ward assigned risk classifications were 40% (n=75/188) high risk, 50% (n=94/188) low risk and 10% (n=19/188) unclassified. Study-derived risk was high risk for 69% (n=129/188) and low risk for 31% (n=59/188), yielding a high-risk classification sensitivity of 51% (95% confidence interval (CI) 42 - 60) and specificity of 69% (95% CI 56 - 80). Absent/unsuppressed HIVVL <12 weeks before delivery accounted for 83% (n=119/143) of study-derived high-risk exposures and 81% (n=60/74) of missed high-risk exposures. Fewer mothers of high-risk infants had >4 antenatal visits (38% v. 81%, p<0.01) and first antenatal visit <20 weeks' gestation (57% v. 77%, p=0.01). Only the number of antenatal visits remained associated with having a high-risk infant after adjusting for gestation at first visit and timing of HIV diagnosis and ART initiation: each additional antenatal visit conferred a 39% (95% CI 25 - 50) reduction in the odds of having a high-risk infant. Conclusion. Labour ward risk classification failed to recognise half of high-risk infants. Infant high-risk status as well as non-detection thereof were driven by suboptimal maternal HIV-VL monitoring. Reinforcing visit frequency later in pregnancy may improve antenatal HIV-VL monitoring, and point-of-care HIV-VL monitoring at delivery could improve recognition of virally unsuppressed mothers and their high-risk infants

The role of treatment delays in surgical site infection after appendicectomy in a South African rural regional hospital.

BACKGROUND: Delays to surgery for acute appendicitis in low- and middle-income countries lead to significant morbidity. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the role of time to surgery in the development of complicated appendicitis and surgical site infection (SSI) in a rural referral hospital in South Africa (SA). METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted of all patients presenting to a regional hospital in SA with acute appendicitis during 2017. Inpatient interview and data collection were followed by 30-day post-surgical follow-up to assess time periods to surgery and operative outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 188 patients underwent surgery for acute appendicitis. The median (interquartile range (IQR)) age was 19 (3 - 73) years, and 62% were male. The median (IQR) time from symptoms to surgery was 60 (42 - 86) hours and from hospital admission to surgery 8 (4 - 16) hours. Forty-one percent were managed laparoscopically, 62% had complicated appendicitis, and 25% developed SSI. Time from symptoms to surgery >72 hours was associated with an increased risk of complicated appendicitis (odds ratio (OR) 4.32; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36 - 13.75; p=0.013). Patients with SSI had an increased median delay of 15 hours (p=0.05) compared with those without SSI. Multivariable analysis showed that the risk of SSI increased with complicated appendicitis (OR 8.96; 95% CI 2.73 - 29.41; p<0,001) and decreased with laparoscopic surgery (OR 0.21; 95% CI 0.07 - 0.59; p=0.003). Time to surgery had no effect on the risk of SSI in adjusted analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Delays to surgery beyond 72 hours significantly increased complicated appendicitis, an important risk factor for SSI. Access to facilities with surgical capability and the use of laparoscopic surgery are modifiable risk factors for SSI.

The Association between Tumour Markers and Meta-iodobenzylguanidine Scans in South African Children with High-risk Neuroblastoma.

AIMS: Diagnostic and post-induction 123I-meta-iodobenzylguanidine (123I-mIBG) scans have prognostic significance in the treatment of neuroblastoma, but data from low- and middle-income countries are limited due to resource constraints. The aim of this study was to determine the association between neuroblastoma-associated tumour markers (lactate dehydrogenase [LDH], ferritin and MYCN amplification) and 123I-mIBG scans (modified Curie scores and metastatic disease patterns) in predicting complete metastatic response rates (mCR) and overall survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two hundred and ninety patients diagnosed with high-risk neuroblastoma in South Africa between January 2000 and May 2018 and a subanalysis of 78 patients with diagnostic 123I-mIBG scans were included. Data collection included LDH, ferritin and MYCN amplification at diagnosis. Two nuclear physicians independently determined the modified Curie scores and pattern of distribution for each diagnostic and post-induction 123I-mIBG scans with high inter-rater agreement (r = 0.952) and reliability (K = 0.805). The cut-off values for the diagnostic and post-induction modified Curie scores of ≥7.0 (P = 0.026) and 3 (P = 0.009), respectively, were generated. The association between the tumour markers and the modified Curie score of the 123I-mIBG scans was determined using post-induction mCR and 2-year overall survival. RESULTS: Diagnostic LDH (P < 0.001), ferritin (P < 0.001) and the diagnostic modified Curie scores (P = 0.019) significantly predicted mCR. Only ferritin correlated with diagnostic modified Curie scores (P = 0.003) but had a low correlation coefficient of 0.353. On multivariable analysis, the only significant covariate for 2-year overall survival at diagnosis was LDH <750 U/l (P = 0.024). A post-induction chemotherapy modified Curie score ≤3.0 had a 2-year overall survival of 46.2% compared with 30.8% for a score >3.0 (P = 0.484). CONCLUSION: LDH, ferritin and the diagnostic 123I-mIBG scans significantly predicted mCR, but only LDH predicted 2-year overall survival. Ferritin and the modified Curie scores correlated with each other. MYCN amplification neither correlated with any aspect of the 123I-mIBG scans nor significantly predicted mCR or 2-year overall survival. LDH and ferritin are therefore appropriate neuroblastoma tumour markers to be used in low- and middle-income countries with limited or no access to mIBG scans and/or MYCN amplification studies.

Investigating hair zinc concentrations in children with and without atopic dermatitis.

BACKGROUND: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a common chronic inflammatory skin condition that disproportionately affects children and is associated with reduced quality of life. Zinc deficiency may contribute to the pathogenesis of AD because zinc plays a role in epidermal barrier integrity and the immune system. Systematic review evidence suggests that low zinc is associated with AD, but limitations of included studies support further investigation. OBJECTIVES: To investigate hair zinc concentrations in children with AD v. healthy controls in a low- to middle-income country setting. METHODS: One hundred and five children aged 1 - 12 yea-rs participated in a frequency-matched for age case-control study. The outcome variable, AD, was confirmed by a clinician and corroborated using the UK Working Party criteria. The primary predictor, long-term average zinc concentration, was determined by measuring hair zinc using inductively coupled mass spectrometry. Baseline demographic characteristics, anthropometry and measures of socioeconomic status were included in our logistic regression analysis. Subgroup analysis was performed where interaction terms suggested effect modification. RESULTS: Using data from the overall sample, population median hair zinc was not significantly different between children with AD and healthy controls. However, subgroup analysis suggested a clinically and statistically significant difference in median zinc between children with AD (175.35 µg/g) and healthy controls (206.4 µg/g) in the older age group (5 - 12 years) (p=0.01). In this age group, multivariable logistic regression analysis also found significantly decreased hair zinc concentrations in AD (odds ratio 0.83; 95% confidence interval 0.66 - 0.96; p=0.046). CONCLUSIONS: The inverse association between zinc status and AD in children aged 5 - 12 years in our setting is consistent with the international literature. The clinical importance of decreased zinc levels in AD is not yet known. Further investigation into relevant underlying mechanisms seems warranted given the global reach of AD, its effect on quality of life, and the low cost of potential zinc-based interventions.

Predischarge transcutaneous bilirubin screening reduces readmission rate for hyperbilirubinaemia in diverse South African newborns: A randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa (SA), healthy term newborns are usually discharged ˂72 hours after delivery. Discharged babies remain at risk for severe hyperbilirubinaemia if it is not identified early. Hyperbilirubinaemia is an important cause of readmission, and also leads to neonatal mortality and morbidity. Use of transcutaneous bilirubin (TcB) screening before hospital discharge has been controversial. OBJECTIVES: To test the clinical benefits of TcB screening of healthy newborns before discharge for the outcomes of readmission for jaundice and severe hyperbilirubinaemia in a randomised controlled trial (RCT). METHODS: This was a RCT. We compared predischarge TcB screening with visual assessment (alone) for jaundice in apparently healthy newborns at a public tertiary hospital in Cape Town, SA. Patients or study participants were not involved in the study design and implementation. RESULTS: Of the 1 858 infants, 63% were black, 35% of mixed race and 1% white. There was a significant reduction in the rate of readmission for jaundice (risk ratio (RR) 0.25; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.14 - 0.46; p<0.0001) and in the incidence of severe hyperbilirubinaemia (RR 0.27; 95% CI 0.08 - 0.97; p=0.05) with the use of TcB screening compared with visual inspection. CONCLUSIONS: Predischarge TcB screening is superior in identifying newborns at risk of severe hyperbilirubinaemia compared with visual inspection. We recommend that every newborn, regardless of skin pigmentation, should receive objective bilirubin screening before hospital discharge. Universal bilirubin screening in newborns could potentially reduce hyperbilirubinaemia-related morbidity and mortality.

The utility of hand-held mobile spirometer technology in a resource-constrained setting.

BACKGROUND: Mobile phone-linked spirometry technology has been designed specifically for evaluating lung function at primary care level. The Air-Smart Spirometer is the first mobile spirometer accepted in Europe for the screening of patients with chronic respiratory diseases. OBJECTIVES: To prospectively assess the accuracy of the device in measuring forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) in a South African population, and to investigate the ability of the device to detect obstructive ventilatory impairment. METHODS: A total of 200 participants were randomly assigned to perform spirometry with either the mobile spirometer connected to a smartphone or the desktop spirometer first, followed by the other. The FEV1/FVC ratio as well as the absolute FEV1 and FVC measurements were compared, using each participant as their own control. A Pearson correlation and Bland-Altman analysis were performed to measure the agreement between the two devices. We defined obstructive ventilatory impairment as FEV1/FVC <0.7 measured by desktop spirometry in order to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of the Air-Smart Spirometer. RESULTS: There was a strong correlation between the absolute FEV1 and FVC values and FEV1/FVC ratio measured with the mobile Air-Smart Spirometer and more conventional pulmonary function testing, with r=0.951, r=0.955 and r=0.898, respectively. The Air-Smart Spirometer had a sensitivity of 97.6%, specificity of 74.4%, PPV of 73.0% and NPV of 97.8% for obstructive ventilatory impairment. CONCLUSIONS: The mobile Air-Smart Spirometer compared well with conventional spirometry, making it an attractive and potentially affordable tool for screening purposes in a primary care setting. Moreover, it had a high sensitivity and NPV for obstructive ventilatory impairment.

Predictors of treatment success in smoking cessation with varenicline combined with nicotine replacement therapy v. varenicline alone

Background.Identification of the predictors of treatment success in smoking cessation may help healthcare workers to improve the effectiveness of attempts at quitting.Objective. To identify the predictors of success in a randomised controlled trial comparing varenicline alone or in combination with nicotine replacement therapy (NRT).Methods. A post-hoc analysis of the data of 435 subjects who participated in a 24-week, multicentre trial in South Africa was performed. Logistic regression was used to analyse the effect of age, sex, age at smoking initiation, daily cigarette consumption, nicotine dependence, and reinforcement assessment on abstinence rates at 12 and 24 weeks. Point prevalence and continuous abstinence rates were self-reported and confirmed biochemically with exhaled carbon monoxide readings.Results. The significant predictors of continuous abstinence at 12 and 24 weeks on multivariate analysis were lower daily cigarette consumption (odds ratio (OR) 1.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21 - 2.87, p=0.005 and OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.12 - 2.98, p=0.02, respectively) and older age (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.00 - 2.31, p=0.049 and OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.13 - 2.84, p=0.01, respectively). There was no difference in the predictors of success in the univariate analysis, except that older age predicted point prevalence abstinence at 12 weeks (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.00 - 2.15, p=0.049). The findings were inconclusive for an association between abstinence and lower nicotine dependence, older age at smoking initiation and positive reinforcement.Conclusion. Older age and lower daily cigarette consumption are associated with a higher likelihood of abstinence in patients using varenicline, regardless of the addition of NRT

Predictors of treatment success in smoking cessation with varenicline combined with nicotine replacement therapy v. varenicline alone.

BACKGROUND: Identification of the predictors of treatment success in smoking cessation may help healthcare workers to improve the effectiveness of attempts at quitting. OBJECTIVE: To identify the predictors of success in a randomised controlled trial comparing varenicline alone or in combination with nicotine replacement therapy (NRT). METHODS: A post-hoc analysis of the data of 435 subjects who participated in a 24-week, multicentre trial in South Africa was performed. Logistic regression was used to analyse the effect of age, sex, age at smoking initiation, daily cigarette consumption, nicotine dependence, and reinforcement assessment on abstinence rates at 12 and 24 weeks. Point prevalence and continuous abstinence rates were self-reported and confirmed biochemically with exhaled carbon monoxide readings. RESULTS: The significant predictors of continuous abstinence at 12 and 24 weeks on multivariate analysis were lower daily cigarette consumption (odds ratio (OR) 1.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21 - 2.87, p=0.005 and OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.12 - 2.98, p=0.02, respectively) and older age (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.00 - 2.31, p=0.049 and OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.13 - 2.84, p=0.01, respectively). There was no difference in the predictors of success in the univariate analysis, except that older age predicted point prevalence abstinence at 12 weeks (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.00 - 2.15, p=0.049). The findings were inconclusive for an association between abstinence and lower nicotine dependence, older age at smoking initiation and positive reinforcement. CONCLUSION: Older age and lower daily cigarette consumption are associated with a higher likelihood of abstinence in patients using varenicline, regardless of the addition of NRT.

Research involvement among undergraduate health sciences students: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The development of research capacity among undergraduates is an important intervention in countering the documented decrease in medical and health sciences researchers. The literature on undergraduate research generally emanates from smaller scale studies that have been conducted in high income countries, with a focus on medical students. This cross-sectional study was conducted in a Sub-Saharan country, included a population of medical and allied health professions (AHP) students, and aimed to improve our understanding of the factors influencing undergraduate student research. METHODS: A questionnaire was distributed to all students enrolled in an undergraduate programme at the Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa (including Medicine and four AHP programmes). Data was collected on a number of demographic characteristics and on 3 major outcome-themes: "voluntary research involvement", "self-perceived research competence" and "future research participation". Associations between characteristics and outcome themes were explored. RESULTS: In total, 1815 students participated in the study (response rate 80.2%). Of all the demographic variables, discipline (AHP programmes vs. Medicine), male gender and prior undergraduate experience in a science degree were significantly associated with voluntary research involvement. Significantly higher levels of self-perceived research competence and greater interest in future research participation, were seen among participants from AHP programmes; males; and those with previous or current voluntary research involvement. Ethnicity and geographic background were not significantly associated with any of our outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our results offer important new evidence in support of the imperative to diversify the research work-force, in Sub-Saharan Africa and globally. Enhanced efforts aimed at achieving better academic representation in terms of gender, ethnicity, geographical and socio-economic backgrounds are strengthened by the findings of this study. Potential student researchers represent an important group amenable to further intervention. Further research may be required to explore the factors that determine the progression from interest to future participation in research.

Risk of cardiovascular disease among teachers in Cape Town: Findings of the South African PaCT pilot study.

BACKGROUND: The accelerating epidemic of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) highlights the need to establish long-term cohort studies in Africa. OBJECTIVE: The Partnership for Cohort Research and Training (PaCT) seeks to study NCDs in South Africa (SA), Uganda, Tanzania and Nigeria on a long-term basis. Pilot studies at each site have tested feasibility. The SA site additionally studied the prevalence of CVD risk factors and categorised participants' 10-year predicted risk of a cardiovascular event. METHODS: We enrolled teachers from 111 public schools in the Metro South Education District in Cape Town, SA, between January 2011 and May 2012. Participants completed a self-administered questionnaire and biological measurements, and chose post or email for 6-month follow-up. RESULTS: The participation of schools was permitted by 53.2% of principals, and 489 of 1 779 teachers agreed to participate. Of teachers willing to participate in the follow-up, 52% were retained, three-quarters by post and a quarter by email. Their mean age was 46.3 years and 70.3% were female. The prevalence of CVD risk factors was high and featured hypertension (48.5%), hypercholesterolaemia (20.5%), smoking (18.0%), diabetes (10.1%) and chronic kidney disease (10.4%), while 84.7% were overweight or obese. Of the participants, 18.7% were at high risk of a heart attack or stroke within 10 years. CONCLUSION: Establishing a cohort study among teachers has challenges but also opportunities for addressing CVD, which will soon impose a substantial burden on Cape Town's education system.

Study profile: the Durban Diabetes Study (DDS): a platform for chronic disease research.

The Durban Diabetes Study (DDS) is a population-based cross-sectional survey of an urban black population in the eThekwini Municipality (city of Durban) in South Africa. The survey combines health, lifestyle and socioeconomic questionnaire data with standardised biophysical measurements, biomarkers for non-communicable and infectious diseases, and genetic data. Data collection for the study is currently underway and the target sample size is 10 000 participants. The DDS has an established infrastructure for survey fieldwork, data collection and management, sample processing and storage, managed data sharing and consent for re-approaching participants, which can be utilised for further research studies. As such, the DDS represents a rich platform for investigating the distribution, interrelation and aetiology of chronic diseases and their risk factors, which is critical for developing health care policies for disease management and prevention. For data access enquiries please contact the African Partnership for Chronic Disease Research (APCDR) at data@apcdr.org or the corresponding author.

The Impact of a Change in Referral Pathway on a Paediatric Short-Stay Ward in Cape Town; South Africa

Background. The opening of the new Khayelitsha District Hospital in April 2012 coincided with a change in referral pathway to Tygerberg Hospital (TBH) for children requiring specialist care. Objective. To determine the disease burden impact of the referral pathway change on paediatric short-stay ward admissions at TBH. Methods. A retrospective cohort study; analysing routine health information as captured in ward admissions registers over two similar seasonal periods: 1 April - 30 September 2011 (prior to referral change) and 1 April - 30 September 2012 (post referral change). Results. Paediatric short-stay ward admissions remained similar; but a statistically significant increase in the number of admissions from Khayelitsha sub-district (SD) (p0.001) was seen. The median age was 13 months over the two time periods.Children from Khayelitsha (median age 9.49 months for 2011 and 5.2 months for 2012) were; however; significantly younger than those from other SDs (median age 26.31 months in 2011 and 26.44 months in 2012) (p

Impact of a short biostatistics course on knowledge and performance of postgraduate scholars: Implications for training of African doctors and biomedical researchers.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to evaluate the impact of a short biostatistics course on knowledge and performance of statistical analysis by biomedical researchers in Africa. It is recognized that knowledge of biostatistics is essential for understanding and interpretation of modern scientific literature and active participation in the global research enterprise. Unfortunately, it has been observed that basic education of African scholars may be deficient in applied mathematics including biostatistics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Forty university affiliated biomedical researchers from South Africa volunteered for a 4-day short-course where participants were exposed to lectures on descriptive and inferential biostatistics and practical training on using a statistical software package for data analysis. A quantitative questionnaire was used to evaluate participants' statistical knowledge and performance pre- and post-course. Changes in knowledge and performance were measured using objective and subjective criteria. Data from completed questionnaires were captured and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences. Participants' pre- and post-course data were compared using nonparametric Wilcoxon signed ranks tests for nonnormally distributed variables. A P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Baseline testing of statistical knowledge showed a median score of 0, with 75th percentile at 28.6%, and a maximum score of 71.4%. Postcourse evaluation revealed improvement in participants' core knowledge with the median score increasing to 28.5%; and the 75th percentile score to 85.7%; signifying improved understanding of statistical concepts and ability to carry out data analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This study just showed poor baseline knowledge of biostatistics among postgraduate scholars and health science researchers in this cohort and highlights the potential benefits of short-courses in biostatistics to improve the knowledge and skills of biomedical researchers and scholars in Africa.

High risk of malnutrition associated with depressive symptoms in older South Africans living in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition contributes to functional and cognitive decline in older adults, which results in decreased quality of life and loss of independence. This study aimed to identify determinants of nutritional risk among community-dwelling adults in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in 1008 subjects aged 60 years and over who were randomly selected by systematic sampling. Demographics, socioeconomic data and self-reported history of medical conditions were recorded. The Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form (MNA-SF) was used to screen for nutritional risk, and the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale was administered to all subjects. Descriptive statistics and the Pearson chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used for statistical analysis. Logistic regression modelling determined predictors of nutritional risk. RESULTS: Of the 984 participants (mean age = 68.8 ± 7.4 years; range 60-103 years) who completed the MNA-SF, 51% were classified as having a normal nutritional status, 43.4% at risk for malnutrition and 5.5% classified as malnourished. Men were more likely to be either at risk for malnutrition or be malnourished than women (p = 0.008), as were subjects with a monthly household income of ≤R1600 per month (~133 USD) (p = 0.003). In logistic regression models, depressed people were 2.803 (p < 0.001) times more likely to be at risk or be malnourished than those not depressed. CONCLUSION: A high prevalence of risk of malnutrition was identified in older South Africans living in an urban area with poor infrastructure. Further investigations are warranted to determine whether the higher prevalence of depressive symptomatology in nutritionally at risk individuals is a determinant or a consequence of malnutrition, in order to develop targeted nutritional interventions in this age group.

Self-reported musculoskeletal pain among dentists in South Africa: A 12-month prevalence study.

INTRODUCTION: Musculoskeletal trouble (ache, pain, discomfort) originating in the neck, shoulder, and back is a common occupational hazard among dental professionals worldwide, The significance of this problem justified research into the prevalence of these symptoms among dentists in South Africa for which there is currently no information. AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate the one-year prevalence of self-reported musculoskeletal trouble in the neck, shoulder, and lower back areas among dentists in South Africa. METHODS: A survey questionnaire was forwarded to all members of the South African Dental Association whose email addresses were recorded on the Association data base. The email survey was performed using the previously validated Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaires. RESULTS: This cross sectional study revealed a self-reported 12-month prevalence of musculoskeletal trouble (ache, pain, discomfort) among dentists in South Africa of 77.9% involving the neck, 69.8% the lower back, and 72.4% the shoulders, Multiple regression analysis showed that a

Retinopathy in subjects with type 2 diabetes at a tertiary diabetes clinic in Durban, South Africa: Clinical, biochemical and genetic factors.

AIM: To determine the prevalence of clinical and laboratory variables and genetic polymorphisms in association with diabetic retinopathy (DR) in subjects with type 2 diabetes attending a tertiary referral diabetes clinic in Durban, South Africa. METHODS: Cross-sectional study on 292 Indian and African patients with type 2 diabetes (71.5% women). The presence of DR was determined by direct ophthalmoscopy. Clinical and laboratory data were collected and polymorphisms in the NOS3 (rs61722009, rs2070744, rs1799983) and VEGF (rs35569394, rs2010963) genes were determined. RESULTS: DR was present in 113 (39%) subjects. Those with DR were older (60.6 ± 9.6 vs. 55.4 ± 12.9 years, p = 0.005), had longer duration diabetes (18.5 ± 8.8 vs. 11.9 ± 9.2 years, p < 0.0001), higher HbA1c (9.2 ± 1.8 vs. 8.8 ± 1.7%, p = 0.049), serum creatinine (106.3 ± 90.2 vs. 75.2 ± 33.4 µmol/l), triglycerides (2.1 ± 1.2 vs. 1.9 ± 1.6 mmol/l, p = 0.042), proteinuria (72% vs. 28%, p = 0.001), and used more insulin (78% vs. 39% p = 0.0001), anti-hypertensive (95% vs. 80%, p = 0.0003) and lipid-lowering therapy (70% vs. 56%, p = 0.023). There was no association between DR and any of the NOS3 or VEGF gene polymorphisms studied, although there were ethnic differences. After adjustment, diabetes duration (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.08), presence of proteinuria (OR 4.15, 95% CI 1.70-10.11) and use of insulin therapy (OR 3.38, 95% CI 1.60-7.12) were associated with DR. CONCLUSION: Hyperglycemia, duration of diabetes and proteinuria are associated with DR in Indian and African patients in South Africa, whereas NOS3 and VEGF gene polymorphisms were not associated with DR.