Accumulating evidence across studies: Consistent methods protect against false findings produced by p-hacking.

Much empirical science involves evaluating alternative explanations for the obtained data. For example, given certain assumptions underlying a statistical test, a "significant" result generally refers to implausibility of a null (zero) effect in the population producing the obtained study data. However, methodological work on various versions of p-hacking (i.e., using different analysis strategies until a "significant" result is produced) questions whether significant p-values might often reflect false findings. Indeed, initial simulations of single studies showed that the potential for finding "significant" but false findings might be much higher than the nominal .05 value when various analysis flexibilities are undertaken. In many settings, however, research articles report multiple studies using consistent methods across the studies, where those consistent methods would constrain the flexibilities used to produce high false-finding rates for simulations of single studies. Thus, we conducted simulations of study sets. These simulations show that consistent methods across studies (i.e., consistent in terms of which measures are analyzed, which conditions are included, and whether and how covariates are included) dramatically reduce the potential for flexible research practices (p-hacking) to produce consistent sets of significant results across studies. For p-hacking to produce even modest probabilities of a consistent set of studies would require (a) a large amount of selectivity in study reporting and (b) severe (and quite intentional) versions of p-hacking. With no more than modest selective reporting and with consistent methods across studies, p-hacking does not provide a plausible explanation for consistent empirical results across studies, especially as the size of the reported study set increases. In addition, the simulations show that p-hacking can produce high rates of false findings for single studies with very large samples. In contrast, a series of methodologically-consistent studies (even with much smaller samples) is much less vulnerable to the forms of p-hacking examined in the simulations.

Falling Vocal Intonation Signals Speaker Confidence and Conditionally Boosts Persuasion.

People are often advised to project confidence with their bodies and voices to convince others. Prior research has focused on the high and low thinking processes through which vocal confidence signals (e.g., fast speed, falling intonation, low pitch) can influence attitude change. In contrast, this research examines how the vocal confidence of speakers operates under more moderate elaboration levels, revealing that falling intonation only benefits persuasion under certain circumstances. In three experiments, we show that falling (vs. rising) vocal intonation at the ends of sentences can signal speaker confidence. Under moderate elaboration conditions, falling (vs. rising) vocal intonation increased message processing, bolstering the benefit of strong over weak messages, increasing the proportion of message-relevant thoughts, and increasing thought-attitude correspondence. In sum, the present work examined an unstudied role of vocal confidence in guiding persuasion, revealing new processes by which vocal signals increase or fail to increase persuasion.

Pitch as a Recipient, Channel, and Context Factor Affecting Thought Reliance and Persuasion.

Three experiments tested how low versus high pitch generated from sources beyond a message communicator can affect reliance on thoughts and influence recipients' attitudes. First, participants wrote positive or negative thoughts about an exam proposal (Experiments 1, 2) or their academic abilities (Experiment 3). Then, pitch from the message recipient (Experiment 1), channel (Experiment 2), or context (Experiment 3) was manipulated to be high or low. Experiment 1 showed that when participants vocally expressed their thoughts using low (vs. high) pitch, thoughts had a greater effect on attitudes toward exams. Experiment 2 revealed low (vs. high) pitch sounds from the keyboard participants used to write their thoughts produced the same effect on thought usage. Experiment 3 demonstrated that thoughts influenced attitudes more when listed while background music was low (vs. high) Pitch can influence attitudes through a meta-cognitive thought reliance process whether emerging from the recipient, channel, or context.

Evaluating Research in Personality and Social Psychology: Considerations of Statistical Power and Concerns About False Findings.

Traditionally, statistical power was viewed as relevant to research planning but not evaluation of completed research. However, following discussions of high false finding rates (FFRs) associated with low statistical power, the assumed level of statistical power has become a key criterion for research acceptability. Yet, the links between power and false findings are not as straightforward as described. Assumptions underlying FFR calculations do not reflect research realities in personality and social psychology. Even granting the assumptions, the FFR calculations identify important limitations to any general influences of statistical power. Limits for statistical power in inflating false findings can also be illustrated through the use of FFR calculations to (a) update beliefs about the null or alternative hypothesis and (b) assess the relative support for the null versus alternative hypothesis when evaluating a set of studies. Taken together, statistical power should be de-emphasized in comparison to current uses in research evaluation.

I'll scratch your back if you give me a compliment: Exploring psychological mechanisms underlying compliments' effects on compliance.

Although compliments can be an effective compliance tactic, little is known about the reasons for their effectiveness. Two studies tested three potential mechanisms underlying the use of compliments as a compliance tactic: reciprocity, positive mood, and liking. In both studies, participants were either primed with the reciprocity norm or not, then received either complimentary or neutral feedback from a stranger. Participants were later faced with a request from the stranger. Mood, liking for the requestor, and compliance were measured. As predicted, compliments increased compliance in both studies. Neither study found evidence for positive mood nor liking as a mediator of the compliment effect. However, reciprocity priming was found to moderate the compliment effect in both studies, suggesting that compliments are effective, at least in part, because they invoke the reciprocity norm.

Paralinguistic Features Communicated through Voice can Affect Appraisals of Confidence and Evaluative Judgments.

This article unpacks the basic mechanisms by which paralinguistic features communicated through the voice can affect evaluative judgments and persuasion. Special emphasis is placed on exploring the rapidly emerging literature on vocal features linked to appraisals of confidence (e.g., vocal pitch, intonation, speech rate, loudness, etc.), and their subsequent impact on information processing and meta-cognitive processes of attitude change. The main goal of this review is to advance understanding of the different psychological processes by which paralinguistic markers of confidence can affect attitude change, specifying the conditions under which they are more likely to operate. In sum, we highlight the importance of considering basic mechanisms of attitude change to predict when and why appraisals of paralinguistic markers of confidence can lead to more or less persuasion.

Extraversion as a Moderator of the Efficacy of Self-Esteem Maintenance Strategies.

Four experiments explored how extraversion's connection with self-esteem may depend on specific self-enhancement strategies. Participants' self-esteem threatening feedback indicating that they had performed poorly on a vocabulary or emotional intelligence test. In Experiment 1, participants (N = 80) were randomly assigned to either a control condition (no self-enhancement) or a downward social comparison condition. The procedures for Experiments 2 (N = 470) and 3 (N = 514) were similar, adding a self-serving attribution condition (Experiments 2 and 3) and Basking-in-Reflected-Glory (BIRG) condition (Experiment 3). Across the experiments, extraversion was more related to self-esteem under downward social comparison versus other conditions. BIRGing produced higher self-esteem in Experiment 3 across extraversion levels. Experiment 4 (N = 355) focused on downward social comparison versus control, and provided evidence that an increased perception of being similar to the comparison targets may partially explain extraversion's self-esteem link. Theoretical implications concerning both extraversion and self-enhancement are discussed.

A Validity-Based Framework for Understanding Replication in Psychology.

In recent years, psychology has wrestled with the broader implications of disappointing rates of replication of previously demonstrated effects. This article proposes that many aspects of this pattern of results can be understood within the classic framework of four proposed forms of validity: statistical conclusion validity, internal validity, construct validity, and external validity. The article explains the conceptual logic for how differences in each type of validity across an original study and a subsequent replication attempt can lead to replication "failure." Existing themes in the replication literature related to each type of validity are also highlighted. Furthermore, empirical evidence is considered for the role of each type of validity in non-replication. The article concludes with a discussion of broader implications of this classic validity framework for improving replication rates in psychological research.

Perceived Knowledge Moderates the Relation Between Subjective Ambivalence and the "Impact" of Attitudes: An Attitude Strength Perspective.

Previous work has reliably demonstrated that when people experience more subjective ambivalence about an attitude object, their attitudes have less impact on strength-related outcomes such as attitude-related thinking, judging, or behaving. However, previous research has not considered whether the amount of perceived knowledge a person has about the topic might moderate these effects. Across eight studies on different topics using a variety of outcome measures, the current research demonstrates that perceived knowledge can moderate the relation between ambivalence and the impact of attitudes on related thinking, judging, and behaving. Although the typical Attitude × Ambivalence effect emerged when participants had relatively high perceived knowledge, this interaction did not emerge when participants were lower in perceived knowledge. This work provides a more nuanced view of the effects of subjective ambivalence on attitude impact and highlights the importance of understanding the combined impact of attitude strength antecedents.

Are observed associations between a high maternal prepregnancy body mass index and offspring IQ likely to be causal?

BACKGROUND: A high maternal prepregnancy body mass index has been associated with lower offspring IQ, but it is unclear if the relationship is causal. To explore this, our objectives were to compare maternal and paternal estimates and to assess whether certain factors mediate the association. METHODS: We analysed data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, which initially recruited 14 541 women residing in Avon, UK, with an expected date of delivery in 1991-1992. Data were collected during and after pregnancy by questionnaire, medical record abstraction and clinical assessment. At approximately 8 years of age, psychologists administered an abbreviated form of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-III. We fit multivariable logistic regression models to estimate parental prepregnancy obesity and overweight-offspring IQ associations. Counterfactually defined indirect (mediated) effects of maternal prepregnancy obesity on offspring IQ were estimated through path analysis. RESULTS: Among 4324 mother-father-child triads and using normal weight as the referent, we observed consistently stronger associations for maternal prepregnancy obesity and offspring performance IQ (eg, adjusted ß (95% CI)=-3.4 (-5.7 to -1.2) vs -0.97 (-2.9 to 0.96) for paternal obesity). The indirect effects of maternal obesity on offspring IQ through pathways involving gestational weight gain and duration of breastfeeding were small but significant. CONCLUSION: Our findings are consistent with a weak biologic effect of maternal adiposity in pregnancy on offspring performance IQ. Given the growing prevalence of obesity worldwide, more evidence is needed to resolve the correlation versus causation debate in this area.

Speech Rate, Intonation, and Pitch: Investigating the Bias and Cue Effects of Vocal Confidence on Persuasion.

Three experiments were designed to investigate the effects and psychological mechanisms of three vocal qualities on persuasion. Experiment 1 (N = 394) employed a 2 (elaboration: high vs. low) × 2 (vocal speed: fast vs. slow) × 2 (vocal intonation: falling vs. rising) between-participants factorial design. As predicted, vocal speed and vocal intonation influenced global perceptions of speaker confidence. Under high-elaboration, vocal confidence biased thought-favorability, which influenced attitudes. Under low-elaboration, vocal confidence directly influenced attitudes as a peripheral cue. Experiments 2 (N = 412) and 3 (N = 397) conceptually replicated the bias and cue effects in Experiment 1, using a 2 (elaboration: high vs. low) × 2 (vocal pitch: raised vs. lowered) between-participants factorial design. Vocal pitch influenced perceptions of speaker confidence as predicted. These studies demonstrate that changes in three vocal properties influence global perceptions of speaker confidence, influencing attitudes via different mediating processes moderated by amount of thought. Evaluation of alternative mediators in Experiments 2 and 3 failed to support these alternatives to global perceptions of speaker confidence.

Holding replication studies to mainstream standards of evidence.

Replications can make theoretical contributions, but are unlikely to do so if their findings are open to multiple interpretations (especially violations of psychometric invariance). Thus, just as studies demonstrating novel effects are often expected to empirically evaluate competing explanations, replications should be held to similar standards. Unfortunately, this is rarely done, thereby undermining the value of replication research.

Using behavior change frameworks to improve healthcare worker influenza vaccination rates: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) is important for protecting staff and patients, yet vaccine coverage among HCW remains below recommended targets. Psychological theories of behavior change may help guide interventions to improve vaccine uptake. Our objectives were to: (1) review the effectiveness of interventions based on psychological theories of behavior change to improve HCW influenza vaccination rates, and (2) determine which psychological theories have been used to predict HCW influenza vaccination uptake. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, The Joanna Briggs Institute, SocINDEX, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched for studies that applied psychological theories of behavior change to improve and/or predict influenza vaccination uptake among HCW. RESULTS: The literature search yielded a total of 1810 publications; 10 articles met eligibility criteria. All studies used behavior change theories to predict HCW vaccination behavior; none evaluated interventions based on these theories. The Health Belief Model was the most frequently employed theory to predict influenza vaccination uptake among HCW. The remaining predictive studies employed the Theory of Planned Behavior, the Risk Perception Attitude, and the Triandis Model of Interpersonal Behavior. The behavior change framework constructs were successful in differentiating between vaccinated and non-vaccinated HCW. Key constructs identified included: attitudes regarding the efficacy and safety of influenza vaccination, perceptions of risk and benefit to self and others, self-efficacy, cues to action, and social-professional norms. The behavior change frameworks, along with sociodemographic variables, successfully predicted 85-95% of HCW influenza vaccination uptake. CONCLUSION: Vaccination is a complex behavior. Our results suggest that psychological theories of behavior change are promising tools to increase HCW influenza vaccination uptake. Future studies are needed to develop and evaluate novel interventions based on behavior change theories, which may help achieve recommended HCW vaccination targets.

Affective-cognitive meta-bases versus structural bases of attitudes predict processing interest versus efficiency.

We proposed that (a) processing interest for affective over cognitive information is captured by meta-bases (i.e., the extent to which people subjectively perceive themselves to rely on affect or cognition in their attitudes) and (b) processing efficiency for affective over cognitive information is captured by structural bases (i.e., the extent to which attitudes are more evaluatively congruent with affect or cognition). Because processing speed can disentangle interest from efficiency by being manifest as longer or shorter reading times, we hypothesized and found that more affective meta-bases predicted longer affective than cognitive reading time when processing efficiency was held constant (Study 1). In contrast, more affective structural bases predicted shorter affective than cognitive reading time when participants were constrained in their ability to allocate resources deliberatively (Study 2). When deliberation was neither encouraged nor constrained, effects for meta-bases and structural bases emerged (Study 3). Implications for affective-cognitive processing and other attitudes-relevant constructs are discussed.

Feeling conflicted and seeking information: when ambivalence enhances and diminishes selective exposure to attitude-consistent information.

To date, little research has examined the impact of attitudinal ambivalence on attitude-congruent selective exposure. Past research would suggest that strong/univalent rather than weak/ambivalent attitudes should be more predictive of proattitudinal information seeking. Although ambivalent attitude structure might weaken the attitude's effect on seeking proattitudinal information, we believe that conflicted attitudes might also motivate attitude-congruent selective exposure because proattitudinal information should be effective in reducing ambivalence. Two studies provide evidence that the effects of ambivalence on information choices depend on amount of issue knowledge. That is, ambivalence motivates attitude-consistent exposure when issue knowledge is relatively low because less familiar information is perceived to be effective at reducing ambivalence. Conversely, when knowledge is relatively high, more unambivalent (univalent) attitudes predicted attitude-consistent information seeking.

Measuring workplace social support for workers with disability.

INTRODUCTION: Social support in the workplace has been has been demonstrated to serve as a contributor to a worker's ability to manage work demands and to manage stress. Research in the area of disability management indicates that interpersonal factors play an important role in the success of return-to-work interventions. The role of workplace support has received limited attention in rehabilitation, despite the salience of support to the disability management process. Prior to this study, there existed no validated quantitative measure of social support for workers who re-enter the workplace following injury or disability. METHODS: A support measure prototype, the Support for Workers with Disability Scale, was tested with 152 workers in accommodated work situations. Four validation tools were used to assess criterion validity. Factor analysis was used to validate the content structure and reduce the total number of response items. Additional analysis was conducted to determine the ability of the measure to discriminate between groups, and to provide insight into how social support operates in workplaces. RESULTS: Based on analysis, a reduced measure consisting of 41 items and measuring supervisor, co-worker, and non-work supports was created. Secondary analysis disclosed information concerning the nature of supports in the workplace. Higher levels of support were identified for workers with fewer work role limitations and for those with one versus multiple injury claims. CONCLUSIONS: This tool provides a validated outcome measure for research examining the social aspects of workplace disability. It can also serve as a quality management tool for human resource professionals engaged in continuous improvement of disability management programs.

Cultural differences in the representativeness heuristic: expecting a correspondence in magnitude between cause and effect.

Based on previous research on cultural differences in analytic and holistic reasoning, it was hypothesized in these studies that when explaining events, North Americans would be more likely than East Asians to expect causes to correspond in magnitude with those events (i.e., big events stem from big causes and small events stem from small causes). In a series of studies, Canadian and Chinese participants judged the likelihood that high- or low-magnitude events were caused by high- or low-magnitude causes. Overall, Canadians expected events and their causes to correspond in magnitude to a greater degree than did Chinese. Also, Canadians primed to reason holistically expected less cause-effect magnitude correspondence than did those primed to reason analytically.

Neuroticism and the architecture of the self: exploring neuroticism as a moderator of the impact of ideal self-discrepancies on emotion.

Two studies examined the moderating role of neuroticism in discrepancy-emotion relations. In Study 1, neuroticism, self-discrepancies, and depression were measured. Multiple regression analyses revealed a significant interaction between neuroticism and ideal self-discrepancies such that the magnitude of ideal self-discrepancies was a stronger predictor of depression for people high in neuroticism than people low in neuroticism. Study 2 used an experimental paradigm to test the same hypothesis. Participants were randomly assigned to an ideal self-discrepancy salience condition or a control condition in which ideal self-discrepancies were not made salient. A significant interaction between self-discrepancy condition and neuroticism emerged such that the ideal self-discrepancy condition produced higher dejection-related affect relative to the control condition for people high in neuroticism compared to people low in neuroticism.

Altering category-level beliefs: the impact of level of representation at belief formation and belief disconfirmation.

This research program investigates whether representational level of information underlying initial beliefs (individual vs. category) and disconfirming information (individual vs. category) influence the magnitude of belief and attitude change regarding categories of objects. In 3 experiments, 2 key effects emerged. A main effect of type of disconfirming information indicated that category-level information produced more belief and attitude change than did individual-level information. Also, a significant interaction between type of information at formation and disconfirmation indicated a relative matching effect, with category-level disconfirmation producing substantially more belief and attitude change than individual-level disconfirmation when initial beliefs were based on category-level information but only slightly greater change when initial beliefs were based on individual-level information.

A painful reminder: the role of level and salience of attitude importance in cognitive dissonance.

In his seminal book, L. Festinger (1957) emphasized the role of attitude importance in cognitive dissonance. This study (N = 308) explored whether people's use of dissonance reduction strategies differs as a function of level of attitude importance and whether the personal importance of an attitude is salient. Results showed that level and salience of attitude importance interacted to affect high-choice (HC) participants' tendency to use attitude change and trivialization to reduce dissonance. When HC participants were not reminded of the personal importance of their attitude (i.e., it was not salient), they changed their attitudes equally irrespective of attitude importance, but engaged in greater trivialization with increasing levels of importance. In contrast, when attitude importance was salient, HC participants changed their attitudes less with increasing attitude importance and showed no evidence of trivializing under any level of importance.