Statewide estimation of racial/ethnic populations of men who have sex with men in the U.S.

OBJECTIVES: Men who have sex with men (MSM) bear the greatest burden of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in every state in the U.S., but their populations are poorly defined. We estimated and compared populations of MSM in 2007 by region, state, and race/ethnicity. METHODS: We averaged findings from two statistical models we had previously developed to estimate the total state-specific percentage and number of males who were MSM. The models were based, respectively, on state-specific rural/ suburban/urban characteristics and an index using state-specific household census data on same-sex male unmarried partners. A third model, based on racial/ethnic ratios from a nationally representative behavioral survey, partitioned these statewide numbers by race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Of an estimated 7.1 million MSM residing in the U.S. in 2007, 71.4% (5.1 million) were white, 15.9% (1.1 million) were Hispanic, 8.9% (635,000) were black, 2.7% (191,000) were Asian, 0.4% (26,000) were American Indian/Alaska Native, 0.1% (6,000) were Native Hawaiian/other Pacific Islander, and 0.6% (41,000) were of multiple/unknown race/ethnicity. The overall U.S. percentage of males who were MSM (6.4%) varied from 3.3% in South Dakota to 13.2% in the District of Columbia, which we treated as a state. Estimated numbers of MSM ranged from 9,612 in Wyoming to 1,104,805 in California. CONCLUSIONS: Plausible estimates of MSM populations by state and race/ethnicity can inform and guide HIV/AIDS surveillance, allocation of resources, and advocacy. They can help in the planning, implementation, and evaluation of HIV prevention programs and other services. Using MSM numbers as denominators, estimates of population-based MSM HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates could help clarify national and state-level epidemic dynamics. Until corroborated by other modeling and/or empirical research, these estimates should be used with caution.

HIV prevalence rates among men who have sex with men in the southern United States: population-based estimates by race/ethnicity.

States across the U.S. lack effective ways to quantify HIV prevalence rates among men who have sex with men (MSM). We estimated population-based HIV prevalence rates among MSM in the 17 southern states by race/ethnicity. Through 2007, estimated HIV prevalence rates per 100,000 MSM ranged from 2,607.6 among white (non-Hispanic) MSM in Maryland to 41,512.9 among black (non-Hispanic) MSM in the District of Columbia. Black MSM rates significantly exceeded Hispanic and white MSM rates in each state. Significant racial/ethnic disparities in rates persisted in a sensitivity analysis examining the possibility that minority MSM populations had been underestimated in each state. Compared with black, Hispanic, and white non-MSM males, respectively, rates at the regional level were 25.2 times higher for black MSM, 43.0 times higher for Hispanic MSM, and 106.0 times higher for white MSM. State-level analysis of racial/ethnic-specific MSM HIV prevalence rates can help guide resource allocation and assist advocacy.

Estimated HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates among racial/ethnic populations of men who have sex with men, Florida.

BACKGROUND: Population-based HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates among men who have sex with men (MSM) have been unavailable, limiting assessment of racial/ethnic disparities and epidemic dynamics. METHODS: Using estimated numbers of MSM aged >or=18 years by race/ethnicity as denominators, from models in our prior work, we estimated MSM HIV prevalence and mortality rates for 2006-2007 and HIV incidence rates for 2006 in Florida. RESULTS: Overall, the estimated MSM HIV prevalence rates per 100,000 MSM were 7354.8 (2006), and 7758.3 (2007). With white MSM as the referent, MSM HIV prevalence rate ratios (RRs) equaled 3.7 for blacks in 2006 and 3.6 in 2007 and 1.7 for Hispanics in both years (all P < 0.001). Among all MSM with HIV, the mortality rates were 199.8 (2006) and 188.4 (2007), with RRs of 5.4 for blacks in 2006 and 4.9 in 2007, and 1.6 for Hispanics in 2006 and 1.4 in 2007 (all P < 0.001). In 2006, the estimated HIV incidence rate among all MSM was 656.1 per 100,000 MSM, with RRs of 5.5 (blacks) and 2.0 (Hispanics) (both P < 0.001). A sensitivity analysis indicated that error due to misclassification of minority MSM as males who are not MSM lowered rates and RRs for all the 3 indicators but racial/ethnic disparities persisted (all P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The impact of HIV by each measure was greater on black and Hispanic MSM than on white MSM. Quantifying estimates of HIV incidence, HIV prevalence, and mortality rates among MSM with HIV informs HIV surveillance, prevention, treatment, resource allocation, and community mobilization.

Estimating populations of men who have sex with men in the southern United States.

Population estimates of men who have sex with men (MSM) by state and race/ethnicity are lacking, hampering effective HIV epidemic monitoring and targeting of outreach and prevention efforts. We created three models to estimate the proportion and number of adult males who are MSM in 17 southern states. Model A used state-specific census data stratified by rural/suburban/urban area and national estimates of the percentage MSM in corresponding areas. Model B used a national estimate of the percentage MSM and state-specific household census data. Model C partitioned the statewide estimates by race/ethnicity. Statewide Models A and B estimates of the percentages MSM were strongly correlated (r = 0.74; r-squared = 0.55; p < 0.001) and had similar means (5.82% and 5.88%, respectively) and medians (5.5% and 5.2%, respectively). The estimated percentage MSM in the South was 6.0% (range 3.6-13.2%; median, 5.4%). The combined estimated number of MSM was 2.4 million, including 1,656,500 (69%) whites, 339,400 (14%) blacks, 368,800 (15%) Hispanics, 34,600 (1.4%) Asian/Pacific Islanders, 7,700 (0.3%) American Indians/Alaska Natives, and 11,000 (0.5%) others. The estimates showed considerable variability in state-specific racial/ethnic percentages MSM. MSM population estimates enable better assessment of community vulnerability, HIV/AIDS surveillance, and allocation of resources. Data availability and computational ease of our models suggest other states could similarly estimate their MSM populations.

Men who have sex with men: racial/ethnic disparities in estimated HIV/AIDS prevalence at the state and county level, Florida.

Population-based HIV/AIDS prevalence estimates among men who have sex with men (MSM) have been unavailable, but have implications for effective prevention efforts. Prevalent (living) Florida HIV/AIDS cases reported through 2006 (numerators) were stratified by race/ethnicity and HIV exposure category. Based on previous research, MSM populations were posited as 4-10% of all males aged > or =13 years in each subgroup (denominators). At the estimated lower and upper plausible bounds, respectively, HIV/AIDS prevalence per 100,000 MSM was significantly higher among black (8,292.6-20,731.4); Hispanic (5,599.5-13,998.7); and Asian/Pacific Islander, American Indian or multi-racial (4,942.6-12,356.8) MSM than among white MSM (3,444.9-8,612.3). HIV/AIDS prevalence among all MSM was 13.8-36.9 times that among all other males. Across 19 high-morbidity counties, MSM HIV/AIDS prevalence was highest among those in the most populous counties and highest among blacks. This methodology, adaptable by other states, facilitates calculation of plausible MSM HIV/AIDS prevalence to guide HIV prevention/care community planners and MSM.

Men who have sex with men: estimated population sizes and mortality rates by race/ethnicity, Miami-Dade County, Florida.

BACKGROUND: Estimated numbers of men who have sex with men (MSM) by race/ethnicity and mortality rates among such MSM with HIV/AIDS are unavailable. This hampers efficient targeting of HIV/AIDS prevention and care resources. METHODS: An existing estimation methodology was adapted to develop MSM population estimates by race/ethnicity for Miami-Dade County, Florida. We ascertained and characterized deaths that occurred during 2003 to 2005 among MSM HIV/AIDS cases, matching HIV/AIDS surveillance and vital statistics registries. We calculated estimated average annual racial/ethnic-specific mortality rates and rate ratios (RRs) among MSM HIV/AIDS cases. RESULTS: An estimated 63,020 men aged > or =18 years in the county are MSM (7.5% of all men aged > or =18 years; point estimate). Among 754 MSM HIV/AIDS deaths, point-estimate mortality rates per 100,000 MSM were higher for blacks (733.5) than for whites (229.2) (P < 0.01) and Hispanics (360.5) (P < 0.01). The best estimate of the black/white MSM mortality RR among HIV/AIDS cases was 3.20:1 (P < 0.01); for Hispanic/white MSM, it was 1.57:1 (P < 0.01). Sensitivity analyses suggested the estimates were reasonably robust to biases that we examined. CONCLUSIONS: Black and Hispanic MSM were more likely to die with HIV/AIDS than white MSM. Plausible racial/ethnic-specific MSM population and mortality rate estimates can inform effective HIV/AIDS prevention efforts and program planning.