Clinical characteristics and predictors of human mpox outcome during the 2022 outbreak in Nigeria: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Research from sub-Saharan Africa that contributes to our understanding of the 2022 mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) global outbreak is insufficient. Here, we describe the clinical presentation and predictors of severe disease among patients with mpox diagnosed between Feb 1, 2022, and Jan 30, 2023 in Nigeria. METHODS: We did a cohort study among laboratory-confirmed and probable mpox cases seen in 22 mpox-treatment centres and outpatient clinics across Nigeria. All individuals with confirmed and probable mpox were eligible for inclusion. Exclusion criteria were individuals who could not be examined for clinical characterisation and those who had unknown mortality outcomes. Skin lesion swabs or crust samples were collected from each patient for mpox diagnosis by PCR. A structured questionnaire was used to document sociodemographic and clinical data, including HIV status, complications, and treatment outcomes from the time of diagnosis to discharge or death. Severe disease was defined as mpox associated with death or with a life-threatening complication. Two logistic regression models were used to identify clinical characteristics associated with severe disease and potential risk factors for severe disease. The primary outcome was the clinical characteristics of mpox and disease severity. FINDINGS: We enrolled 160 people with mpox from 22 states in Nigeria, including 134 (84%) adults, 114 (71%) males, 46 (29%) females, and 25 (16%) people with HIV. Of the 160 patients, distinct febrile prodrome (n=94, 59%), rash count greater than 250 (90, 56%), concomitant varicella zoster virus infection (n=48, 30%), and hospital admission (n=70, 48%) were observed. Nine (6%) of the 160 patients died, including seven (78%) deaths attributable to sepsis. The clinical features independently associated with severe disease were a rash count greater than 10 000 (adjusted odds ratio 26·1, 95% CI 5·2-135·0, p<0·0001) and confluent or semi-confluent rash (6·7, 95% CI 1·9-23·9). Independent risk factors for severe disease were concomitant varicella zoster virus infection (3·6, 95% CI 1·1-11·5) and advanced HIV disease (35·9, 95% CI 4·1-252·9). INTERPRETATION: During the 2022 global outbreak, mpox in Nigeria was more severe among those with advanced HIV disease and concomitant varicella zoster virus infection. Proactive screening, management of co-infections, the integration and strengthening of mpox and HIV surveillance, and preventive and treatment services should be prioritised in Nigeria and across Africa. FUNDING: None.

An epidemiological study on face masks and acne in a Nigerian population.

BACKGROUND: Acne vulgaris is a skin disorder that affects males and females with significant impact on quality of life. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions globally to reduce the spread of the virus particularly since there have been no known cures or definitive treatment for the disease. One key non-pharmaceutical intervention was recommendation on wearing of face masks. There are reports of discomfort associated with wearing face mask including complaints of various skin rashes, acne and headaches which could hinder appropriate use of face masks. While the dermatological problems associated with face mask use have been comprehensively explored in high income countries, the data is sparse in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to determine the association between face mask use and development of acne vulgaris in our developing country setting. We subsequently determined risk factors for development of acne vulgaris such as duration of wearing face masks, type of face mask, and prior dermatological skin condition history. We aimed to also determine the potential of acne development secondary to face mask use to reducing predisposition to wearing face masks. METHODS: This was an observational cross-sectional study conducted in within two local government areas of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. Trained interviewers administered pre-tested questionnaires to 1316 consecutive consenting adult participants randomly approached for informed consent at various public locations. Information was inputted into MS Excel and analyzed using Epi-info. RESULTS: A total number of 1316 persons participated in this study with mean age 34.4 ±12.3 years and median age 35.5years. Male: female ratio was 1:1.41. New onset acne or worsening of acne following consistent wearing of face masks was reported by 323 (24.5%) of the 1316 participants in this study. The surgical face mask was the least likely to predispose to acne p<0.05. Compared with the surgical mask, persons using N95 face mask and cloth mask were 1.89 and 1.41 times more likely to have acne respectively. Persons with prior history of acne were more likely to develop new acne or experience worsening of acne following wearing of face mask OR 3.89, 95% CI 2.85, 5.33; p <0.05). The length of time of daily mask wearing was not significantly associated with occurrence of new onset acne or worsening of acne. Persons reporting prior histories of allergy were more likely to develop acne in this study (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.50, 2.88; p<0.05). In this study, 192 (59.4%) of those who reported having acne following face masks use responded they have a negative predisposition to wearing masks. CONCLUSION: Our finding of greater predisposition to development or worsening of acne following consistent use of face masks could have implications for the control strategy of COVID-19. The finding that the N95 face mask was more significantly associated with acne is of concern as this is the preferred face mask in healthcare settings. It is important for the medical community to investigate feasible and safe recommendations to help alleviate this condition.

Assessing the capacity of symptom scores to predict COVID-19 positivity in Nigeria: a national derivation and validation cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop and validate a symptom prediction tool for COVID-19 test positivity in Nigeria. DESIGN: Predictive modelling study. SETTING: All Nigeria States and the Federal Capital Territory. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 43 221 individuals within the national COVID-19 surveillance dataset from 27 February to 27 August 2020. Complete dataset was randomly split into two equal halves: derivation and validation datasets. Using the derivation dataset (n=21 477), backward multivariable logistic regression approach was used to identify symptoms positively associated with COVID-19 positivity (by real-time PCR) in children (≤17 years), adults (18-64 years) and elderly (≥65 years) patients separately. OUTCOME MEASURES: Weighted statistical and clinical scores based on beta regression coefficients and clinicians' judgements, respectively. Using the validation dataset (n=21 744), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values were used to assess the predictive capacity of individual symptoms, unweighted score and the two weighted scores. RESULTS: Overall, 27.6% of children (4415/15 988), 34.6% of adults (9154/26 441) and 40.0% of elderly (317/792) that had been tested were positive for COVID-19. Best individual symptom predictor of COVID-19 positivity was loss of smell in children (AUROC 0.56, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.56), either fever or cough in adults (AUROC 0.57, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.58) and difficulty in breathing in the elderly (AUROC 0.53, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.58) patients. In children, adults and the elderly patients, all scoring approaches showed similar predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive capacity of various symptom scores for COVID-19 positivity was poor overall. However, the findings could serve as an advocacy tool for more investments in resources for capacity strengthening of molecular testing for COVID-19 in Nigeria.