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1.
Infection ; 2024 Jul 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38995551

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Advancements in Artificial Intelligence(AI) have made platforms like ChatGPT increasingly relevant in medicine. This study assesses ChatGPT's utility in addressing bacterial infection-related questions and antibiogram-based clinical cases. METHODS: This study involved a collaborative effort involving infectious disease (ID) specialists and residents. A group of experts formulated six true/false, six open-ended questions, and six clinical cases with antibiograms for four types of infections (endocarditis, pneumonia, intra-abdominal infections, and bloodstream infection) for a total of 96 questions. The questions were submitted to four senior residents and four specialists in ID and inputted into ChatGPT-4 and a trained version of ChatGPT-4. A total of 720 responses were obtained and reviewed by a blinded panel of experts in antibiotic treatments. They evaluated the responses for accuracy and completeness, the ability to identify correct resistance mechanisms from antibiograms, and the appropriateness of antibiotics prescriptions. RESULTS: No significant difference was noted among the four groups for true/false questions, with approximately 70% correct answers. The trained ChatGPT-4 and ChatGPT-4 offered more accurate and complete answers to the open-ended questions than both the residents and specialists. Regarding the clinical case, we observed a lower accuracy from ChatGPT-4 to recognize the correct resistance mechanism. ChatGPT-4 tended not to prescribe newer antibiotics like cefiderocol or imipenem/cilastatin/relebactam, favoring less recommended options like colistin. Both trained- ChatGPT-4 and ChatGPT-4 recommended longer than necessary treatment periods (p-value = 0.022). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights ChatGPT's capabilities and limitations in medical decision-making, specifically regarding bacterial infections and antibiogram analysis. While ChatGPT demonstrated proficiency in answering theoretical questions, it did not consistently align with expert decisions in clinical case management. Despite these limitations, the potential of ChatGPT as a supportive tool in ID education and preliminary analysis is evident. However, it should not replace expert consultation, especially in complex clinical decision-making.

2.
Int J Antimicrob Agents ; 63(5): 107134, 2024 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38453094

RESUMEN

AIM: To investigate the efficacy of intravenous (IV) fosfomycin as combination therapy for treatment of difficult-to-treat (DTT) acute and subacute infections with multi-drug-resistant (MDR) Gram-negative bacteria (GNB), and risk factors associated with 90-day mortality. METHODS: A retrospective, observational, monocentric study enrolled patients treated with IV fosfomycin in combination regimens (≥72 h) for proven DTT-MDR-GNB infection. Multi-variate regression analysis identified independent risk factors for 90-day mortality. A propensity score for receiving fosfomycin was performed to control for confounding factors. RESULTS: In total, 70 patients were included in this study: 54.3% had carbapenem-resistant isolates, 31.4% had ceftazidime/avibactam-resistant isolates and 28.6% had ceftolozane/tazobactam-resistant isolates. The main pathogens were Pseudomonas aeruginosa (57.1%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (22.9%). The most prevalent infections were nosocomial pneumonia (42.9%), osteomyelitis (17.1%) and intra-abdominal infections. All-cause 30- and 90-day mortality were 15.7% and 31.4%, respectively (18.9% and 50% considering acute DTT-MDR-GNB infections alone). Relapse at 30 days occurred in 22.9% of cases (29% with emergence of fosfomycin resistance). Mortality at 90 days was independently associated with septic shock and ceftolozane/tazobactam resistance. The relationship between resistance to ceftolozane/tazobactam and 90-day mortality was confirmed to be significant after adjustment by propensity score analysis (hazard ratio 5.84, 95% confidence interval 1.65-20.68; P=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Fosfomycin seems to be a promising salvage, combination treatment in DTT-MDR-GNB infections. Resistance to ceftolozane/tazobactam seems to be independently associated with treatment failure. Randomized clinical trials focusing on pathogen and infection sites are needed urgently to demonstrate the superiority of fosfomycin in combination with other agents for the resolution of DTT-MDR-GNB infections.


Asunto(s)
Administración Intravenosa , Antibacterianos , Cefalosporinas , Farmacorresistencia Bacteriana Múltiple , Quimioterapia Combinada , Fosfomicina , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas , Fosfomicina/uso terapéutico , Fosfomicina/administración & dosificación , Humanos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Masculino , Femenino , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/microbiología , Infecciones por Bacterias Gramnegativas/mortalidad , Anciano , Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Antibacterianos/administración & dosificación , Persona de Mediana Edad , Bacterias Gramnegativas/efectos de los fármacos , Resultado del Tratamiento , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Tazobactam/uso terapéutico , Adulto , Combinación de Medicamentos , Pseudomonas aeruginosa/efectos de los fármacos , Factores de Riesgo
3.
Clin Microbiol Infect ; 30(4): 548-551, 2024 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38142893

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Short-term peripheral venous catheter-associated bloodstream infections (PVC-associated BSI) are disregarded in the literature because of their relatively low incidence. No data are available on the association between PVC diameter size and the risk of PVC-associated BSI. METHODS: Using a prospective database, we performed an observational study at the University of Geneva Hospitals from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2021, including all patients with a PVC. We used univariable and multivariable marginal Cox regression models for clustered data to investigate the association between catheter size and PVC-associated BSI. The main variable of interest 'catheter size' was forced into our multivariable models. Confounders, which are thought to influence the risk of PVC-associated BSI, were used as adjustment factors. RESULTS: A total of 206 804 PVCs were included. In all, 10 806 of 201 413 (5.4%), 80 274 of 201 413 (39.9%), 93 047 of 201 413 (46.2%) and 17 286 of 201 413 (8.6%) PVCs measured ≤16G, 18G, 20G and ≥22G, respectively. The univariable analysis showed that diameters of ≤16G were significantly associated with a higher risk of PVC-associated BSI (hazard ratio [HR] 4.52, 95% CI, 1.14-18.00). Multivariable models confirmed these results (HR 4.65, 95% CI, 1.19-18.20). Sensitivity analyses including PVC inserted only in 2021 (HR 4.80, 95% CI, 1.21-19.10), for dwell time >2 days (HR 3.67, 95% CI, 0.92-14.65) and only in adults (HR 3.97, 95% CI, 0.97-15.39) showed similar results. DISCUSSION: Larger PVC size may increase the risk of PVC-associated BSI. Diameter size should be considered when selecting PVCs to reduce the burden of PVC-associated BSI.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones Relacionadas con Catéteres , Cateterismo Periférico , Sepsis , Adulto , Humanos , Cateterismo Periférico/efectos adversos , Catéteres , Hospitales , Incidencia , Infecciones Relacionadas con Catéteres/epidemiología
4.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 8956, 2023 06 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37268716

RESUMEN

The objective of this study was to characterize frailty and resilience in people evaluated for Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome (PACS), in relation to quality of life (QoL) and Intrinsic Capacity (IC). This cross-sectional, observational, study included consecutive people previously hospitalized for severe COVID-19 pneumonia attending Modena (Italy) PACS Clinic from July 2020 to April 2021. Four frailty-resilience phenotypes were built: "fit/resilient", "fit/non-resilient", "frail/resilient" and "frail/non-resilient". Frailty and resilience were defined according to frailty phenotype and Connor Davidson resilience scale (CD-RISC-25) respectively. Study outcomes were: QoL assessed by means of Symptoms Short form health survey (SF-36) and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L) and IC by means of a dedicated questionnaire. Their predictors including frailty-resilience phenotypes were explored in logistic regressions. 232 patients were evaluated, median age was 58.0 years. PACS was diagnosed in 173 (74.6%) patients. Scarce resilience was documented in 114 (49.1%) and frailty in 72 (31.0%) individuals. Predictors for SF-36 score < 61.60 were the phenotypes "frail/non-resilient" (OR = 4.69, CI 2.08-10.55), "fit/non-resilient" (OR = 2.79, CI 1.00-7.73). Predictors for EQ-5D-5L < 89.7% were the phenotypes "frail/non-resilient" (OR = 5.93, CI 2.64-13.33) and "frail/resilient" (OR = 5.66, CI 1.93-16.54). Predictors of impaired IC (below the mean score value) were "frail/non-resilient" (OR = 7.39, CI 3.20-17.07), and "fit/non-resilient" (OR = 4.34, CI 2.16-8.71) phenotypes. Resilience and frailty phenotypes may have a different impact on wellness and QoL and may be evaluated in people with PACS to identify vulnerable individuals that require suitable interventions.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Fragilidad , Humanos , Anciano , Anciano Frágil , Calidad de Vida , Estudios Transversales , Síndrome Post Agudo de COVID-19 , Evaluación Geriátrica
5.
Viruses ; 15(2)2023 01 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36851508

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Treatment guidelines recommend the tocilizumab use in patients with a CRP of >7.5 mg/dL. We aimed to estimate the causal effect of glucocorticoids + tocilizumab on mortality overall and after stratification for PaO2/FiO2 ratio and CRP levels. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study of patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. The primary endpoint was day 28 mortality. Survival analysis was conducted to estimate the conditional and average causal effect of glucocorticoids + tocilizumab vs. glucocorticoids alone using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models with a time-varying variable for the intervention. The hypothesis of the existence of effect measure modification by CRP and PaO2/FiO2 ratio was tested by including an interaction term in the model. RESULTS: In total, 992 patients, median age 69 years, 72.9% males, 597 (60.2%) treated with monotherapy, and 395 (31.8%), adding tocilizumab upon respiratory deterioration, were included. At BL, the two groups differed for median values of CRP (6 vs. 7 mg/dL; p < 0.001) and PaO2/FiO2 ratio (276 vs. 235 mmHg; p < 0.001). In the unadjusted analysis, the mortality was similar in the two groups, but after adjustment for key confounders, a significant effect of glucocorticoids + tocilizumab was observed (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.38-0.90). Although the study was not powered to detect interactions (p = 0.41), there was a signal for glucocorticoids + tocilizumab to have a larger effect in subsets, especially participants with high levels of CRP at intensification. CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirm that glucocorticoids + tocilizumab vs. glucocorticoids alone confers a survival benefit only in patients with a CRP > 7.5 mg/dL prior to treatment initiation and the largest effect for a CRP > 15 mg/dL. Large randomized studies are needed to establish an exact cut-off for clinical use.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Glucocorticoides , Masculino , Humanos , Anciano , Femenino , Glucocorticoides/uso terapéutico , Enfermedad Crítica , Estudios Retrospectivos , Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19
6.
Commun Biol ; 5(1): 1376, 2022 12 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36522489

RESUMEN

Little is known about SARS-CoV-2 evolution under Molnupiravir and Paxlovid, the only antivirals approved for COVID-19 treatment. By investigating SARS-CoV-2 variability in 8 Molnupiravir-treated, 7 Paxlovid-treated and 5 drug-naïve individuals at 4 time-points (Days 0-2-5-7), a higher genetic distance is found under Molnupiravir pressure compared to Paxlovid and no-drug pressure (nucleotide-substitutions/site mean±Standard error: 18.7 × 10-4 ± 2.1 × 10-4 vs. 3.3 × 10-4 ± 0.8 × 10-4 vs. 3.1 × 10-4 ± 0.8 × 10-4, P = 0.0003), peaking between Day 2 and 5. Molnupiravir drives the emergence of more G-A and C-T transitions than other mutations (P = 0.031). SARS-CoV-2 selective evolution under Molnupiravir pressure does not differ from that under Paxlovid or no-drug pressure, except for orf8 (dN > dS, P = 0.001); few amino acid mutations are enriched at specific sites. No RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) or main proteases (Mpro) mutations conferring resistance to Molnupiravir or Paxlovid are found. This proof-of-concept study defines the SARS-CoV-2 within-host evolution during antiviral treatment, confirming higher in vivo variability induced by Molnupiravir compared to Paxlovid and drug-naive, albeit not resulting in apparent mutation selection.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19 , Antivirales/farmacología , Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Evolución Molecular
7.
Antibiotics (Basel) ; 11(8)2022 Jul 28.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36009885

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Despite the global efforts to antagonize carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) spreading, it remains an emerging threat with a related mortality exceeding 40% among critically ill patients. The purpose of this review is to provide evidence concerning the best infection prevention and control (IPC) strategies to fight CRAB spreading in endemic hospitals. METHODS: The study was a critical review of the literature aiming to evaluate all available studies reporting IPC measures to control CRAB in ICU and outside ICU in both epidemic and endemic settings in the past 10 years. RESULTS: Among the 12 included studies, the majority consisted of research reports of outbreaks mostly occurred in ICUs. The reported mortality reached 50%. Wide variability was observed related to the frequency of application of recommended CRAB IPC measures among the studies: environmental disinfection (100%); contact precautions (83%); cohorting staff and patients (75%); genotyping (66%); daily chlorhexidine baths (58%); active rectal screening (50%); closing or stopping admissions to the ward (33%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite effective control of CRAB spreading during the outbreaks, the IPC measures reported were heterogeneous and highly dependent on the different setting as well as on the structural characteristics of the wards. Reinforced 'search and destroy' strategies both on the environment and on the patient, proved to be the most effective measures for permanently eliminating CRAB spreading.

8.
Antibiotics (Basel) ; 11(8)2022 Jul 26.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35892396

RESUMEN

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in critically ill patients with COVID-19 represents a very huge global threat due to a higher incidence rate compared to non-COVID-19 patients and almost 50% of the 30-day mortality rate. Pseudomonas aeruginosa was the first pathogen involved but uncommon non-fermenter gram-negative organisms such as Burkholderia cepacea and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia have emerged as other potential etiological causes. Against carbapenem-resistant gram-negative microorganisms, Ceftazidime/avibactam (CZA) is considered a first-line option, even more so in case of a ceftolozane/tazobactam resistance or shortage. The aim of this report was to describe our experience with CZA in a case series of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the ICU with VAP due to difficult-to-treat (DTT) P. aeruginosa, Burkholderia cepacea, and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia and to compare it with data published in the literature. A total of 23 patients were treated from February 2020 to March 2022: 19/23 (82%) VAPs were caused by Pseudomonas spp. (16/19 DTT), 2 by Burkholderia cepacea, and 6 by Stenotrophomonas maltophilia; 12/23 (52.1%) were polymicrobial. Septic shock was diagnosed in 65.2% of the patients and VAP occurred after a median of 29 days from ICU admission. CZA was prescribed as a combination regimen in 86% of the cases, with either fosfomycin or inhaled amikacin or cotrimoxazole. Microbiological eradication was achieved in 52.3% of the cases and the 30-day overall mortality rate was 14/23 (60.8%). Despite the high mortality of critically ill COVID-19 patients, CZA, especially in combination therapy, could represent a valid treatment option for VAP due to DTT non-fermenter gram-negative bacteria, including uncommon pathogens such as Burkholderia cepacea and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia.

9.
JAC Antimicrob Resist ; 3(4): dlab188, 2021 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34909691

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To describe our real-life experience with cefiderocol in XDR and difficult-to-treat resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa (DTR-P) infections without any other available treatment options. METHODS: We included patients with a proven infection due to an XDR/DTR-P, who had failed on previous regimens, and were treated with cefiderocol, following them prospectively to day 90 or until hospital discharge or death. RESULTS: Seventeen patients treated for >72 h with cefiderocol were included: 14 receiving combination regimens (82.4%) and 3 receiving monotherapy (17.6%). Fourteen patients were males (82%) with a median age of 64 years (IQR 58-73). Fifteen patients (88.2%) were admitted to the ICU and five had septic shock (29%). Seven cases (41.2%) were ventilator-associated pneumonia, of which 71% (5/7) occurred in COVID-19 patients. Four were complicated intrabdominal infections, one ecthyma gangrenosum, one nosocomial pneumonia and one empyema, one osteomyelitis, one primary bacteraemia, and one nosocomial external ventricular drainage meningitis. Clinical cure and microbiological cure rates were 70.6% and 76.5%, respectively. There were six deaths (35.3%) after a median of 8 days (IQR 3-10) from the end of treatment, but only two of them (11.7%) were associated with P. aeruginosa infection progression. CONCLUSIONS: Our experience collecting this large case series of DTR-P treated with cefiderocol may help clinicians consider this new option in this hard-to-manage setting. Our results are even more relevant in the current scenario of ceftolozane/tazobactam shortage. Importantly, this is the first study providing real-life data indicating adequate cefiderocol concentrations in CSF.

10.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0251378, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34383784

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The benefit of tocilizumab on mortality and time to recovery in people with severe COVID pneumonia may depend on appropriate timing. The objective was to estimate the impact of tocilizumab administration on switching respiratory support states, mortality and time to recovery. METHODS: In an observational study, a continuous-time Markov multi-state model was used to describe the sequence of respiratory support states including: no respiratory support (NRS), oxygen therapy (OT), non-invasive ventilation (NIV) or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), OT in recovery, NRS in recovery. RESULTS: Two hundred seventy-one consecutive adult patients were included in the analyses contributing to 695 transitions across states. The prevalence of patients in each respiratory support state was estimated with stack probability plots, comparing people treated with and without tocilizumab since the beginning of the OT state. A positive effect of tocilizumab on the probability of moving from the invasive and non-invasive mechanical NIV/IMV state to the OT in recovery state (HR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.2-5.2) was observed. Furthermore, a reduced risk of death was observed in patients in NIV/IMV (HR = 0.3, 95% CI = 0.1-0.7) or in OT (HR = 0.1, 95% CI = 0.0-0.8) treated with tocilizumab. CONCLUSION: To conclude, we were able to show the positive impact of tocilizumab used in different disease stages depicted by respiratory support states. The use of the multi-state Markov model allowed to harmonize the heterogeneous mortality and recovery endpoints and summarize results with stack probability plots. This approach could inform randomized clinical trials regarding tocilizumab, support disease management and hospital decision making.


Asunto(s)
Anticuerpos Monoclonales Humanizados/uso terapéutico , Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19 , Terapia Respiratoria/métodos , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Cadenas de Markov , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ventilación no Invasiva , Terapia por Inhalación de Oxígeno , Respiración Artificial , Factores de Tiempo , Resultado del Tratamiento
11.
AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses ; 37(4): 283-291, 2021 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33619997

RESUMEN

The aim of this study was to evaluate both positive outcomes, including reduction of respiratory support aid and duration of hospital stay, and negative ones, including mortality and a composite of invasive mechanical ventilation or death, in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia treated with or without oral darunavir/cobicistat (DRV/c, 800/150 mg/day) used in different treatment durations. The secondary objective was to evaluate the percentage of patients treated with DRV/c who were exposed to potentially severe drug-drug interactions (DDIs) and died during hospitalization. This observational retrospective study was conducted in consecutive patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to a tertiary care hospital in Modena, Italy. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to compare patients receiving standard of care with or without DRV/c. Adjustment for key confounders was applied. Two hundred seventy-three patients (115 on DRV/c) were included, 75.8% males, mean age was 64.6 (±13.2) years. Clinical improvement was similar between the groups, depicted by respiratory aid switch (p > .05). The same was observed for duration of hospital stay [13.2 (±8.9) for DRV/c vs. 13.4 (±7.2) days for no-DRV/c, p = .9]. Patients on DRV/c had higher rates of mortality (25.2% vs. 10.1%, p < .0001. The rate of composite outcome of mechanical ventilation and death was higher in the DRV/c group (37.4% vs. 25.3%, p = .03). Multiple serious DDI associated with DRV/c were observed in the 19 patients who died. DRV/c should not be recommended as a treatment option for COVID-19 pneumonia outside clinical trials.


Asunto(s)
Fármacos Anti-VIH/uso terapéutico , Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19 , Cobicistat/uso terapéutico , Darunavir/uso terapéutico , Adulto , Fármacos Anti-VIH/efectos adversos , COVID-19/mortalidad , COVID-19/virología , Cobicistat/efectos adversos , Darunavir/efectos adversos , Combinación de Medicamentos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación
12.
Clin Exp Nephrol ; 25(4): 401-409, 2021 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33398605

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Patients with COVID-19 experience multiple clinical conditions that may cause electrolyte imbalances. Hypokalemia is a concerning electrolyte disorder closely associated with severe complications. This study aimed to estimate prevalence, risk factors and outcome of hypokalemia in a cohort of patients with confirmed COVID-19. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 290 non-ICU admitted patients with COVID-19 at the tertiary teaching hospital of Modena, Italy, from February 16 to April 14, 2020. RESULTS: Hypokalemia was detected in 119 out of 290 patients (41%) during hospitalization. Mean serum potassium was 3.1 ± 0.1 meq/L. The majority of patients (90.7%) patients experienced only a mild decrease in serum potassium level (3-3.4 mEq/L). Hypokalemia was associated with hypocalcemia, which was detected in 50% of subjects. Urine potassium-to-creatinine ratio, measured in a small number of patients (n = 45; 36.1%), revealed an increase of urinary potassium excretion in most cases (95.5%). Risk factors for hypokalemia were female sex (odds ratio (OR) 2.44; 95% CI 1.36-4.37; P 0.003) and diuretic therapy (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.08-3.48; P 0.027). Hypokalemia, adjusted for sex, age and SOFA score, was not associated with ICU transfer (OR 0.52; 95% CI 0.228-1.212; P = 0.131), in-hospital mortality (OR, 0.47; 95% CI 0.170-1.324; P = 0.154) and composite outcome of ICU transfer or in-hospital mortality (OR 0.48; 95% CI 0.222-1.047; P = 0.065) in our cohort of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Hypokalemia was a frequent disorder in subjects with COVID-19. Female sex and diuretic therapy were identified as risk factors for low serum potassium levels. Hypokalemia was unrelated to ICU transfer and death in this cohort of patients.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/complicaciones , Hipopotasemia/etiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Diuréticos/efectos adversos , Femenino , Mortalidad Hospitalaria , Humanos , Hipopotasemia/tratamiento farmacológico , Hipopotasemia/epidemiología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Potasio/sangre , Potasio/orina , Prevalencia , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo
13.
PLoS One ; 15(11): e0239172, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33180787

RESUMEN

AIMS: The aim of this study was to estimate a 48 hour prediction of moderate to severe respiratory failure, requiring mechanical ventilation, in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: This was an observational prospective study that comprised consecutive patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to hospital from 21 February to 6 April 2020. The patients' medical history, demographic, epidemiologic and clinical data were collected in an electronic patient chart. The dataset was used to train predictive models using an established machine learning framework leveraging a hybrid approach where clinical expertise is applied alongside a data-driven analysis. The study outcome was the onset of moderate to severe respiratory failure defined as PaO2/FiO2 ratio <150 mmHg in at least one of two consecutive arterial blood gas analyses in the following 48 hours. Shapley Additive exPlanations values were used to quantify the positive or negative impact of each variable included in each model on the predicted outcome. RESULTS: A total of 198 patients contributed to generate 1068 usable observations which allowed to build 3 predictive models based respectively on 31-variables signs and symptoms, 39-variables laboratory biomarkers and 91-variables as a composition of the two. A fourth "boosted mixed model" included 20 variables was selected from the model 3, achieved the best predictive performance (AUC = 0.84) without worsening the FN rate. Its clinical performance was applied in a narrative case report as an example. CONCLUSION: This study developed a machine model with 84% prediction accuracy, which is able to assist clinicians in decision making process and contribute to develop new analytics to improve care at high technology readiness levels.


Asunto(s)
Simulación por Computador , Infecciones por Coronavirus/complicaciones , Aprendizaje Automático , Neumonía Viral/complicaciones , Insuficiencia Respiratoria/diagnóstico , Anciano , Betacoronavirus , Análisis de los Gases de la Sangre , COVID-19 , Femenino , Humanos , Italia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Estadísticos , Pandemias , Estudios Prospectivos , Respiración Artificial , Insuficiencia Respiratoria/etiología , SARS-CoV-2
14.
Eur J Immunol ; 50(9): 1283-1294, 2020 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32910469

RESUMEN

Studies on the interactions between SARS-CoV-2 and humoral immunity are fundamental to elaborate effective therapies including vaccines. We used polychromatic flow cytometry, coupled with unsupervised data analysis and principal component analysis (PCA), to interrogate B cells in untreated patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. COVID-19 patients displayed normal plasma levels of the main immunoglobulin classes, of antibodies against common antigens or against antigens present in common vaccines. However, we found a decreased number of total and naïve B cells, along with decreased percentages and numbers of memory switched and unswitched B cells. On the contrary, IgM+ and IgM- plasmablasts were significantly increased. In vitro cell activation revealed that B lymphocytes showed a normal proliferation index and number of dividing cells per cycle. PCA indicated that B-cell number, naive and memory B cells but not plasmablasts clustered with patients who were discharged, while plasma IgM level, C-reactive protein, D-dimer, and SOFA score with those who died. In patients with pneumonia, the derangement of the B-cell compartment could be one of the causes of the immunological failure to control SARS-Cov2, have a relevant influence on several pathways, organs and systems, and must be considered to develop vaccine strategies.


Asunto(s)
Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Linfocitos B/inmunología , Betacoronavirus/patogenicidad , Infecciones por Coronavirus/inmunología , Isotipos de Inmunoglobulinas/sangre , Pulmón/inmunología , Neumonía Viral/inmunología , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Anticuerpos Antivirales/clasificación , Linfocitos B/virología , Betacoronavirus/inmunología , Proteína C-Reactiva/inmunología , COVID-19 , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Proliferación Celular , Infecciones por Coronavirus/mortalidad , Infecciones por Coronavirus/patología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/virología , Estudios Transversales , Citocinas/genética , Citocinas/inmunología , Femenino , Productos de Degradación de Fibrina-Fibrinógeno/inmunología , Humanos , Inmunidad Humoral , Memoria Inmunológica , Pulmón/patología , Pulmón/virología , Activación de Linfocitos , Recuento de Linfocitos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Puntuaciones en la Disfunción de Órganos , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/mortalidad , Neumonía Viral/patología , Neumonía Viral/virología , Cultivo Primario de Células , SARS-CoV-2 , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Análisis de Supervivencia
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