Performance of in silico tools for the evaluation of p16INK4a (CDKN2A) variants in CAGI.

Correct phenotypic interpretation of variants of unknown significance for cancer-associated genes is a diagnostic challenge as genetic screenings gain in popularity in the next-generation sequencing era. The Critical Assessment of Genome Interpretation (CAGI) experiment aims to test and define the state of the art of genotype-phenotype interpretation. Here, we present the assessment of the CAGI p16INK4a challenge. Participants were asked to predict the effect on cellular proliferation of 10 variants for the p16INK4a tumor suppressor, a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor encoded by the CDKN2A gene. Twenty-two pathogenicity predictors were assessed with a variety of accuracy measures for reliability in a medical context. Different assessment measures were combined in an overall ranking to provide more robust results. The R scripts used for assessment are publicly available from a GitHub repository for future use in similar assessment exercises. Despite a limited test-set size, our findings show a variety of results, with some methods performing significantly better. Methods combining different strategies frequently outperform simpler approaches. The best predictor, Yang&Zhou lab, uses a machine learning method combining an empirical energy function measuring protein stability with an evolutionary conservation term. The p16INK4a challenge highlights how subtle structural effects can neutralize otherwise deleterious variants.

Prediction of coordination number and relative solvent accessibility in proteins.

Knowing the coordination number and relative solvent accessibility of all the residues in a protein is crucial for deriving constraints useful in modeling protein folding and protein structure and in scoring remote homology searches. We develop ensembles of bidirectional recurrent neural network architectures to improve the state of the art in both contact and accessibility prediction, leveraging a large corpus of curated data together with evolutionary information. The ensembles are used to discriminate between two different states of residue contacts or relative solvent accessibility, higher or lower than a threshold determined by the average value of the residue distribution or the accessibility cutoff. For coordination numbers, the ensemble achieves performances ranging within 70.6-73.9% depending on the radius adopted to discriminate contacts (6A-12A). These performances represent gains of 16-20% over the baseline statistical predictor, always assigning an amino acid to the largest class, and are 4-7% better than any previous method. A combination of different radius predictors further improves performance. For accessibility thresholds in the relevant 15-30% range, the ensemble consistently achieves a performance above 77%, which is 10-16% above the baseline prediction and better than other existing predictors, by up to several percentage points. For both problems, we quantify the improvement due to evolutionary information in the form of PSI-BLAST-generated profiles over BLAST profiles. The prediction programs are implemented in the form of two web servers, CONpro and ACCpro, available at http://promoter.ics.uci.edu/BRNN-PRED/.