Fluvastatin Reduces Glucose Tolerance in Healthy Young Individuals Independently of Cold Induced BAT Activity.

Background: Statins are commonly prescribed for primary and secondary prevention of atherosclerotic disease. They reduce cholesterol biosynthesis by inhibiting hydroxymethylglutaryl-coenzyme A-reductase (HMG-CoA-reductase) and therefore mevalonate synthesis. Several studies reported a small, but significant increase in the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus with statin treatment. The molecular mechanisms behind this adverse effect are not yet fully understood. Brown adipose tissue (BAT), which plays a role in thermogenesis, has been associated with a reduced risk of insulin resistance. Statins inhibit adipose tissue browning and have been negatively linked to the presence of BAT in humans. We therefore speculated that inhibition of BAT by statins contributes to increased insulin resistance in humans. Methods: A prospective study was conducted in 17 young, healthy men. After screening whether significant cold-induced thermogenesis (CIT) was present, participants underwent glucose tolerance testing (oGTT) and assessment of BAT activity by FDG-PET/MRI after cold-exposure and treatment with a ß3-agonist. Fluvastatin 2x40mg per day was then administered for two weeks and oGTT and FDG-PET/MRI were repeated. Results: Two weeks of fluvastatin treatment led to a significant increase in glucose area under the curve (AUC) during oGTT (p=0.02), reduction in total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol (both p<0.0001). Insulin AUC (p=0.26), resting energy expenditure (REE) (p=0.44) and diet induced thermogenesis (DIT) (p=0.27) did not change significantly. The Matsuda index, as an indicator of insulin sensitivity, was lower after fluvastatin intake, but the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.09). As parameters of BAT activity, mean standard uptake value (SUVmean) (p=0.12), volume (p=0.49) and total glycolysis (p=0.74) did not change significantly during the intervention. Matsuda index, was inversely related to SUVmean and the respiratory exchange ratio (RER) (both R2 = 0.44, p=0.005) at baseline, but not after administration of fluvastatin (R2 = 0.08, p=0.29, and R2 = 0.14, p=0.16, respectively). Conclusions: Treatment with fluvastatin for two weeks reduced serum lipid levels but increased glucose AUC in young, healthy men, indicating reduced glucose tolerance. This was not associated with changes in cold-induced BAT activity.

Relation of diet-induced thermogenesis to brown adipose tissue activity in healthy men.

Human brown adipose tissue (BAT) is a thermogenic tissue activated by the sympathetic nervous system in response to cold exposure. It contributes to energy expenditure (EE) and takes up glucose and lipids from the circulation. Studies in rodents suggest that BAT contributes to the transient rise in EE after food intake, so-called diet-induced thermogenesis (DIT). We investigated the relationship between human BAT activity and DIT in response to glucose intake in 17 healthy volunteers. We assessed DIT, cold-induced thermogenesis (CIT), and maximum BAT activity at three separate study visits within 2 wk. DIT was measured by indirect calorimetry during an oral glucose tolerance test. CIT was assessed as the difference in EE after cold exposure of 2-h duration as compared with warm conditions. Maximal activity of BAT was assessed by 18-F-fluoro-deoxyglucose (18F-FDG) 18F-FDG-PET/MRI after cold exposure and concomitant pharmacological stimulation with mirabegron. Seventeen healthy men (mean age = 23.4 yr, mean body mass index = 23.2 kg/m2) participated in the study. EE increased from 1,908 (±181) kcal/24 h to 2,128 (±277) kcal/24 h (P < 0.0001, +11.5%) after mild cold exposure. An oral glucose load increased EE from 1,911 (±165) kcal/24 h to 2,096 (±167) kcal/24 h at 60 min (P < 0.0001, +9.7%). The increase in EE in response to cold was significantly associated with BAT activity (R2 = 0.43, P = 0.004). However, DIT was not associated with BAT activity (R2 = 0.015, P = 0.64). DIT after an oral glucose load was not associated with stimulated 18F-FDG uptake into BAT, suggesting that DIT is independent from BAT activity in humans (Clinicaltrials.gov Registration No. NCT03189511).NEW & NOTEWORTHY Cold-induced thermogenesis (CIT) was related to BAT activity as determined by FDG-PET/MRI after stimulation of BAT. Diet-induced thermogenesis (DIT) was not related to stimulated BAT activity. Supraclavicular skin temperature was related to CIT but not to DIT. DIT in humans is probably not a function of BAT.

Association of Baseline Inflammation With Effectiveness of Nutritional Support Among Patients With Disease-Related Malnutrition: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Inflammation is a key driver of malnutrition during illness and is often accompanied by metabolic effects, including insulin resistance and reduction of appetite. However, it still remains unclear if inflammation influences the response to nutritional support among patients with disease-related malnutrition. Objective: To examine whether patients' baseline inflammatory status is associated with the effect of nutritional support on 30-day mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a secondary analysis of the Effect of Early Nutritional Support on Frailty, Functional Outcomes, and Recovery of Malnourished Medical Inpatients Trial (EFFORT), a randomized clinical trial conducted in 8 Swiss hospitals from April 2014 to February 2018. A total of 1950 participants who had C-reactive protein measurements at the time of admission were included in this secondary analysis. Data analysis was conducted between June and July 2019. Interventions: Hospitalized patients at risk for malnutrition were randomly assigned to receive protocol-guided individualized nutritional support to reach protein and energy goals (intervention group) or standard hospital food (control group). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was 30-day mortality. Based on C-reactive protein levels at admission, patients were stratified into groups with low, moderate, or high inflammation (<10 mg/L, 10-100 mg/L, and >100 mg/L, respectively). Results: A total of 1950 patients (median [interquartile range] age, 75 [65-83] years; 1025 [52.6%] men) were included; 533 (27.3%) had low levels of inflammation, 894 (45.9%) had moderate levels of inflammation, and 523 (26.8%) had high levels of inflammation. Compared with the control group, patients receiving nutritional support showed a significant reduction in 30-day mortality, regardless of C-reactive protein level (adjusted odds ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.43-0.86; P = .005). In the subgroup of patients with high inflammation, there was no beneficial effect of nutritional support (adjusted odds ratio, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.70-2.50; P = .39), providing evidence that inflammation has a significant modifying association (P for interaction = .005). Conclusions and Relevance: Based on this secondary analysis of a multicenter randomized trial, a patient's admission inflammatory status was associated with their response to nutritional support. If validated in future clinical trials, nutritional support may need to be individualized based on a patient's initial presentation and markers of inflammation. These results may also help to explain some of the heterogeneity in treatment effects of nutrition seen in previous critical care trials. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02517476.

The concept of therapeutic hierarchy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic system for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has recently been proposed and validated. We sought to explore the relationship among the ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables (ie tumour stage, functional score based on performance status and Child-Pugh score, and alpha-fetoprotein), treatment selection and survival outcome in HCC patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We analysed 4,867 consecutive HCC patients undergoing six main treatment strategies (liver transplantation, LT; liver resection, LR; ablation, ABL; intra-arterial therapy, IAT; Sorafenib, SOR; and best supportive care, BSC) and enrolled during 2002-2015 in a multicenter Italian database. In order to control pretreatment imbalances in observed variables, a machine learning methodology was used and inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) was calculated. An IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model that included ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables, treatment period and treatment strategy was then developed. The survival benefit of HCC treatments was described as a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), using BSC as a reference value and as predicted median survival. RESULTS: After the IPTW, the six treatment groups became well balanced for most baseline characteristics. In the IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model, treatment strategy was found to be the strongest survival predictor, irrespective of ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables and treatment period. The survival benefit of different therapies over BSC was: LT = 0.19 (0.18-0.20); RES = 0.40 (0.37-0.42); ABL 0.42 (0.40-0.44); IAT = 0.58 (0.55-0.61); SOR = 0.92 (0.87-0.97). This multivariate model was then used to predict median survival for each therapy within each ITA.LI.CA stage. CONCLUSION: The concept of therapeutic hierarchy was established within each ITA.LI.CA stage.

Daclatasvir-based regimens in HCV cirrhosis: experience from the Italian early access program.

We reported the efficacy and safety data for daclatasvir (DCV)-based all-oral antiviral therapy in patients treated in the Italian compassionate-use program. 275 patients were included (202 male-73.5%, mean age: 57.4 years, 62 HIV-coinfected, 94 with recurrence of hepatitis C post-OLT). Forty-nine patients (17.8%) had Child-Pugh B, Genotype(G) distribution was: G1a:72 patients (26.2%), G1b:137 (49.8%); G3:40 (14.5%) and G4:26 (9.5%). Patients received DCV with sofosbuvir(SOF) (n = 221, 129 with ribavirin(RBV) or with simeprevir (SMV) or asunaprevir (ASU) (n = 54, 19 with RBV) for up to 24 weeks. Logistic regression was used to identify baseline characteristics associated with sustained virological response at week 12 post-treatment (SVR12). Liver function changes between baseline and follow up were assessed in 228 patients. 240 patients achieved SVR12 (87.3%), post transplant and HIV co-infected patients were equally distributed among SVR and no SVR (35% vs 34.3%; p = 0.56 and 24.2% vs 11.4%, p = 0.13, respectively). SVR rate was significantly higher with the combination DCV + SOF compared with DCV + SIM or ASU (93.2% vs 63.0%, p < 0.0001). Bilirubin value (OR: 0.69, CI95%: 0.54-0.87, p = 0.002) and regimen containing SOF (OR: 9.99, CI95%: 4.09-24.40; p < 0.001) were independently related with SVR. Mean albumin and bilirubin values significantly improved between baseline and follow-up week 12. DCV-based antiviral therapy was well tolerated and resulted in a high SVR when combined with SOF either in pre-transplant and in OLT patients and in "difficult to treat" HCV genotypes. Regimens containing DCV in combination with NS3 protease inhibitors obtained suboptimal results.

Restaging Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Before Additional Treatment Decisions: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Prognostic assessment of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the time of diagnosis remains controversial and becomes even more complex at the time of restaging when new variables need to be considered. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the prognostic utility of restaging patients before proceeding with additional therapies for HCC. Two independent Italian prospective databases were used to identify 1,196 (training cohort) and 648 (validation cohort) consecutive patients with HCC treated over the same study period (2008-2015) who had complete restaging before decisions about additional therapies. The performance of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic score at restaging was compared with that of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Hong Kong Liver Cancer, and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program systems. A multivariable Cox survival analysis was performed to identify baseline, restaging, or dynamic variables that were able to improve the predictive performance of the prognostic systems. At restaging, 35.3% of patients maintained stable disease; most patients were either down-staged by treatment (27.2%) or had disease progression (37.5%). The ITA.LI.CA scoring system at restaging demonstrated the best prognostic performance in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.707 and 0.722, respectively) among all systems examined. On multivariable analysis, several variables improved the prognostic ability of the ITA.LI.CA score at restaging, including progressive disease after the first treatment, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at restaging, and choice of nonsurgical treatment as additional therapy. A new ITA.LI.CA restaging model was created that demonstrated high discriminative power in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.753 and 0.745, respectively). CONCLUSION: Although the ITA.LI.CA score demonstrated the best prognostic performance at restaging, other variables should be considered to improve the prognostic assessment of patients at the time of deciding additional therapies for HCC.

Correction: Application of the Intermediate-Stage Subclassification to Patients With Untreated Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

In the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) Group, contributor name Alberta Capelli is misspelled and should be corrected to Alberta Cappelli.

Metabolic disorders across hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic disorders are well-known risk factors for HCC. Conversely, their impact on the natural history of HCC is not established. This study aimed at evaluating the impact of metabolic disorders on clinical features, treatment and survival of HCC patients regardless of its aetiology. METHODS: We analysed the ITA.LI.CA database regarding 839 HCC patients prospectively collected. The following metabolic features were analysed: BMI, diabetes, arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and hypertriglyceridaemia. According to these features, patients were divided into 3 groups: 0-1, 2 and 3-5 metabolic features. RESULTS: As compared with patients with 0-1 metabolic features, patients with 3-5 features showed lower percentage of HCC diagnosis on surveillance (P = .021), larger tumours (P = .038), better liver function (higher percentage of Child-Pugh class A [P = .007] and MELD < 10 [P = .003]), higher percentage of metastasis (P = .024) and lower percentage of portal vein thrombosis (P = .010). The BCLC stage and treatment options were similar among the 3 groups, with the exception of a less frequent access to loco-regional therapies for BCLC stage B patients with 3-5 features (P = .012). Overall survival and survival according to BCLC stage and/or treatment did not significantly differ among the 3 groups. Only using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, diabetic patients showed a lower survival (P = .046). MELD score, HCC morphology, nodule size, BCLC stage, portal vein thrombosis and metastasis were independent predictors of lead-time adjusted survival. CONCLUSIONS: Our "real world" study suggests that metabolic disorders shape the clinical presentation of HCC but do not seem to play a major role in setting patient survival.

Utility of Tumor Burden Score to Stratify Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Cancer: Results of 4759 Cases from ITA.LI.CA Study Group.

BACKGROUND: Dichotomous models like Milan Criteria represent the routinely used tools for predicting the outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, a paradigm shift from a dichotomous to continuous prognostic stratification should represent a good strategy for improving the prediction process. Recently, the tumor burden score (TBS) has been proposed for selecting patients with colorectal liver metastases. To date, TBS has not been validated in a large HCC population. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic power of TBS in an HCC population treated with different curative and palliative modalities. METHODS: Prospectively collected data from consecutive HCC patients managed in 24 institutions participating in the ITA.LI.CA group between Jan 2002 and Mar 2015 were analyzed (n = 4759). A sub-analysis focused on 3909 patients with the radiological evidence of vascular invasion or metastatic disease was also performed. RESULTS: TBS demonstrated the best discriminative ability when compared to MC and other tumor-specific scores. At multivariable Cox regression analysis, TBS was an independent risk factor of overall survival, with a 6% increased risk for patient death for each point increase in TBS. At survival analysis, when TBS ≥ 8 was connected with MELD ≥ 15 and alpha-fetoprotein ≥ 1000 ng/mL, patients presenting all these three risk factors presented the worst results (p value < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Survival prediction of HCC patients was very well done using TBS model, even stratifying the population in relation to the presence of metastases and/or vascular invasion. TBS model was the best in terms of discriminatory ability and goodness of fit when compared with other continuous or binary variables. Its incorporation in a model composed by tumor- and liver function-related variables further increases its survival prediction.

Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma need a personalized management: A lesson from clinical practice.

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) advanced stage (BCLC C) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes a heterogeneous population, where sorafenib alone is the recommended treatment. In this study, our aim was to assess treatment and overall survival (OS) of BCLC C patients subclassified according to clinical features (performance status [PS], macrovascular invasion [MVI], extrahepatic spread [EHS] or MVI + EHS) determining their allocation to this stage. From the Italian Liver Cancer database, we analyzed 835 consecutive BCLC C patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2014. Patients were subclassified as: PS1 alone (n = 385; 46.1%), PS2 alone (n = 146; 17.5%), MVI (n = 224; 26.8%), EHS (n = 51; 6.1%), and MVI + EHS (n = 29; 3.5%). MVI, EHS, and MVI + EHS patients had larger and multifocal/massive HCCs and higher alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels than PS1 and PS2 patients. Median OS significantly declined from PS1 (38.6 months) to PS2 (22.3 months), EHS (11.2 months), MVI (8.2 months), and MVI + EHS (3.1 months; P < 0.001). Among MVI patients, OS was longer in those with peripheral than with central (portal trunk) MVI (11.2 vs. 7.1 months; P = 0.005). The most frequent treatments were: curative approaches in PS1 (39.7%), supportive therapy in PS2 (41.8%), sorafenib in MVI (39.3%) and EHS (37.3%), and best supportive care in MVI + EHS patients (51.7%). Independent prognostic factors were: Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, Child-Pugh class, ascites, platelet count, albumin, tumor size, MVI, EHS, AFP levels, and treatment type. CONCLUSION: BCLC C stage does not identify patients homogeneous enough to be allocated to a single stage. PS1 alone is not sufficient to include a patient into this stage. The remaining patients should be subclassified according to PS and tumor features, and new patient-tailored therapeutic indications are needed. (Hepatology 2018;67:1784-1796).

Curative therapies are superior to standard of care (transarterial chemoembolization) for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer intermediate stage (BCLC-B) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes extremely heterogeneous patients in terms of tumour burden and liver function. Transarterial-chemoembolization (TACE) is the first-line treatment for these patients although it may be risky/useless for someone, while others could undergo curative treatments. This study assesses the treatment type performed in a large cohort of BCLC-B patients and its outcome. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 485 consecutive BCLC-B patients from the ITA.LI.CA database diagnosed with naïve HCC after 1999. Patients were stratified by treatment. RESULTS: 29 patients (6%) were lost to follow-up before receiving treatment. Treatment distribution was: TACE (233, 51.1%), curative treatments (145 patients, 31.8%), sorafenib (18, 3.9%), other (39, 8.5%), best supportive care (BSC) (21, 4.6%). Median survival (95% CI) was 45 months (37.4-52.7) for curative treatments, 30 (24.7-35.3) for TACE, 14 (10.5-17.5) for sorafenib, 14 (5.2-22.7) for other treatments and 10 (6.0-14.2) for BSC (P<.0001). Independent prognosticators were gender and treatment. Curative treatments reduced mortality (HR 0.197, 95%CI: 0.098-0.395) more than TACE (HR 0.408, 95%CI: 0.211-0.789) (P<.0001) as compared with BSC. Propensity score matching confirmed the superiority of curative therapies over TACE. CONCLUSIONS: In everyday practice TACE represents the first-line therapy in an half of patients with naïve BCLC-B HCC since treatment choice is driven not only by liver function and nodule characteristics, but also by contraindications to procedures, comorbidities, age and patient opinion. The treatment type is an independent prognostic factor in BCLC-B patients and curative options offer the best outcome.

The evolutionary scenario of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy: an update.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma is changing worldwide. This study aimed at evaluating the changing scenario of aetiology, presentation, management and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy during the last 15 years. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of the ITA.LI.CA (Italian Liver Cancer) database including 5192 hepatocellular carcinoma patients managed in 24 centres from 2000 to 2014. Patients were divided into three groups according to the date of cancer diagnosis (2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2014). RESULTS: The main results were as follows: (i) progressive patient aging; (ii) progressive expansion of non-viral cases and, namely, of "metabolic" hepatocellular carcinomas; (iii) increasing proportion of hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed during a correct (semi-annual) surveillance programme; (iv) favourable cancer stage migration; (v) increased use of radiofrequency ablation to the detriment of percutaneous ethanol injection; (vi) improved outcomes of ablative and transarterial treatments; (vii) improved overall survival (adjusted for the lead time in surveyed patients), particularly after 2009, of both viral and non-viral patients presenting with an early- or intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: During the last 15 years several aetiological and clinical features of hepatocellular carcinoma patients have changed, as their management. The observed improvement of overall survival was owing both to the wider use of semi-annual surveillance, expanding the proportion of tumours that qualified for curative treatments, and to the improved outcome of loco-regional treatments.

Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child-Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26-106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12-61 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2-3), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4-5), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese patients, the ITA.LI.CA score maintained very high discrimination and calibration features also in the external validation cohort. The concordance index (C index) of the ITA.LI.CA score in the internal and external validation cohorts was 0.71 and 0.78, respectively. The ITA.LI.CA score's prognostic ability was significantly better (p < 0.001) than that of BCLC stage (respective C indexes of 0.64 and 0.73), CLIP score (0.68 and 0.75), JIS stage (0.67 and 0.70), MESIAH score (0.69 and 0.77), and HKLC stage (0.68 and 0.75). The main limitations of this study are its retrospective nature and the intrinsically significant differences between the Taiwanese and Italian groups. CONCLUSIONS: The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system includes both a tumor staging-stratifying patients with HCC into six main stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, and C)-and a prognostic score-integrating ITA.LI.CA tumor staging, CPS, ECOG performance status, and AFP. The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system shows a strong ability to predict individual survival in European and Asian populations.

Application of the Intermediate-Stage Subclassification to Patients With Untreated Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) intermediate stage (BCLC B) includes a heterogeneous population of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, in order to facilitate treatment decisions, a panel of experts proposed to subclassify BCLC B patients. In this study, we aimed to assess the prognostic capability of the BCLC B stage reclassification in a large cohort of patients with untreated HCC managed by the Italian Liver Cancer Group. METHODS: We assessed the prognosis of 269 untreated HCC patients observed in the period 1987-2012 who were reclassified according to the proposed subclassification of the BCLC B stage from stage B1 to stage B4. We evaluated and compared the survival of the various substages. RESULTS: Median survival progressively decreased from stage B1 (n=65, 24.2%: 25 months) through stages B2 (n=105, 39.0%: 16 months) and B3 (n=22, 8.2%: 9 months), to stage B4 (n=77, 28.6%: 5 months; P<0.0001). Moreover, we observed a significantly different survival between contiguous stages (B1 vs. B2, P=0.0002; B2 vs. B3, P<0.0001; B3 vs. B4, P=0.0219). In multivariate analysis, the BCLC B subclassification (P<0.0001), MELD score (P=0.0013), and platelet count (P=0.0252) were independent predictors of survival. CONCLUSIONS: The subclassification of the intermediate-stage HCC predicts the prognosis of patients with untreated HCC. The prognostic figures identified in this study may be used as a benchmark to assess the efficacy of therapeutic intervention in the various BCLC B substages, whereas it remains to be established whether incorporation of the MELD score might improve the prognosis of treated patients.

Utility-based criteria for selecting patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation: A multicenter cohort study using the alpha-fetoprotein model as a survival predictor.

The lifetime utility of liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still controversial. The aim of this study was to ascertain when LT is cost-effective for HCC patients, with a view to proposing new transplant selection criteria. The study involved a real cohort of potentially transplantable Italian HCC patients (n = 2419 selected from the Italian Liver Cancer group database) who received nontransplant therapies. A non-LT survival analysis was conducted, the direct costs of therapies were calculated, and a Markov model was used to compute the cost utility of LT over non-LT therapies in Italian and US cost scenarios. Post-LT survival was calculated using the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) model on the basis of AFP values and radiological size and number of nodules. The primary endpoint was the net health benefit (NHB), defined as LT survival benefit in quality-adjusted life years minus incremental costs (US $)/willingness to pay. The calculated median cost of non-LT therapies per patient was US $53,042 in Italy and US $62,827 in the United States. On Monte Carlo simulation, the NHB of LT was always positive for AFP model values ≤ 3 and always negative for values > 7 in both countries. A multivariate model showed that nontumor variables (patient's age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] class, and alternative therapies) had the potential to shift the AFP model threshold of LT cost-ineffectiveness from 3 to 7. LT proved always cost-effective for HCC patients with AFP model values ≤ 3, whereas the cost-ineffectiveness threshold ranged between 3 and 7 using nontumor variables.

Correlation between LDH levels and response to sorafenib in HCC patients: an analysis of the ITA.LI.CA database.

BACKGROUND: Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) is a predictor of clinical outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. However, its predictive role in the clinical outcomes of sorafenib treatment has been poorly documented. The correlation between LDH levels and clinical outcomes in HCC patients treated with sorafenib and included in the nationwide Italian database ITA.LI.CA was investigated here. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The ITA.LI.CA database contains data for 5,136 HCC patients. All patients treated with sorafenib treatment and with available LDH values were considered. Overall survival (OS) and time to progression (TTP) were compared in patients with LDH levels above and below a defined threshold, determined through an ROC analysis. An explorative analysis investigated the relationship between the variation of LDH levels during treatment and response to sorafenib. RESULTS: Baseline LDH levels were available for 97 patients. The most accurate cutoff value for LDH concentration was 297 U/L. Patients with LDH values above (n=45) and below (n=52) this threshold showed equal OS (12.0 months) and TTP (4.0 months) values. Data on LDH levels during sorafenib treatment were reported for 10 patients. LDH values decreased in 3 patients (mean difference = -219 U/L) who also reported a prolonged OS and TTP versus those with unmodified/increased LDH (OS: NE (not evaluated) vs. 8.0 months, p=0.0083; TTP: 19.0 vs. 3.0 months, p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: The clinical benefits of sorafenib do not seem to be influenced by baseline LDH. According to the results of an explorative analysis, however, a decreased LDH concentration during sorafenib might be associated with improved clinical outcomes.

Survival benefit of liver resection for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma across different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages: a multicentre study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The role of hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages is controversial. We aimed at measuring the survival benefit of resection vs. non-surgical-therapies in each BCLC stage. METHODS: Using the ITA.LI.CA database, we identified 2090 BCLC A, B, and C HCC patients observed between 2000 and 2012: 550 underwent resection, 1046 loco-regional therapy (LRT), and 494 best supportive care (BSC). A multivariate log-logistic model was chosen to predict median survival (MS) after resection vs. MS after LRT or BSC. The results were expressed as net survival benefit of resection: (MS resection-MS LRT)/MS BSC. RESULTS: After stratifying for BCLC stage, the median net survival benefit of resection over LRT was: BCLC 0=62% (40%, 82%), A=45% (13%, 65%), B=46% (9%, 76%), C=-16% (-55%, 33%). Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score>9, Child B class, and performance status (PST)=2 were the main risk factors for liver resection. 1181 Child A patients (57%) with MELD⩽9 and PST<2 had always a large positive net survival benefit of resection over LRT, independently of BCLC stage: BCLC 0=64% (44%, 85%), A=59% (45%, 74%), B=71% (52%, 90%), C=56% (36%, 78%). Among the 909 (43%) patients with at least one risk factor (MELD>9 or PST=2 or Child B class), resection did not prove any survival benefit over LRT. CONCLUSIONS: Resection could result in survival benefit over LRT for HCC patients regardless of their BCLC stage, provided that liver dysfunction (Child B or MELD>9) and PST>1 are absent.

Estimation of lead-time bias and its impact on the outcome of surveillance for the early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Lead-time is the time by which diagnosis is anticipated by screening/surveillance with respect to the symptomatic detection of a disease. Any screening program, including surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is subject to lead-time bias. Data regarding lead-time for HCC are lacking. Aims of the present study were to calculate lead-time and to assess its impact on the benefit obtainable from the surveillance of cirrhotic patients. METHODS: One-thousand three-hundred and eighty Child-Pugh class A/B patients from the ITA.LI.CA database, in whom HCC was detected during semiannual surveillance (n = 850), annual surveillance (n = 234) or when patients came when symptomatic (n = 296), were selected. Lead-time was estimated by means of appropriate formulas and Monte Carlo simulation, including 1000 patients for each arm. RESULTS: The 5-year overall survival after HCC diagnosis was 32.7% in semiannually surveilled patients, 25.2% in annually surveilled patients, and 12.2% in symptomatic patients (p<0.001). In a 10-year follow-up perspective, the median lead-time calculated for all surveilled patients was 6.5 months (7.2 for semiannual and 4.1 for annual surveillance). Lead-time bias accounted for most of the surveillance benefit until the third year of follow-up after HCC diagnosis. However, even after lead-time adjustment, semiannual surveillance maintained a survival benefit over symptomatic diagnosis (number of patients needed to screen = 13), as did annual surveillance (18 patients). CONCLUSIONS: Lead-time bias is the main determinant of the short-term benefit provided by surveillance for HCC, but this benefit becomes factual in a long-term perspective, confirming the clinical utility of an anticipated diagnosis of HCC.

Determinants of alpha-fetoprotein levels in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: implications for its clinical use.

BACKGROUND: α-Fetoprotein (AFP) is a biomarker commonly used in the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), although the possible determinants of its serum levels in these patients have not been adequately explored. For this study, the authors evaluated the relevance of demographic, clinical, and oncologic factors to the presence of elevated AFP levels in large cohort of patients with HCC. METHODS: In 4123 patients with HCC who were managed by the Italian Liver Cancer Group, AFP levels were assessed along with their association with demographic, biochemical, clinical, and oncologic characteristics. Patients were subdivided according to the presence of elevated AFP (ie, >10 ng/mL). RESULTS: AFP levels were elevated in 62.4% of patients with HCC. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that being a woman (odds ratio [OR], 1.497; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 1.250-1.793; P < .0001), the presence of cirrhosis (OR, 1.538; 95% CI, 1.050-2.254; P = .027), liver disease with viral etiology (OR, 1.900; 95% CI, 1.589-2.272; P < .0001), an elevated alanine aminotransferase level (OR, 1.878; 95% CI, 1.602-2.202; P < .0001), a low albumin level (OR, 1.301; 95% CI, 1.110-1.525; P = .012), an HCC tumor size >2 cm (OR, 1.346; 95% CI, 1.135-2.596; P = .001), multinodular HCC (OR, 1.641; 95% CI, 1.403-1.920; P < .0001), and the presence of vascular invasion (OR, 1.774; 95% CI, 1.361-2.311; P < .0001) were associated independently with elevated levels of AFP. Both the median AFP level and the proportion of patients who had elevated levels increased with decreasing degrees of HCC differentiation (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Sex and features of chronic liver disease were identified as nontumor characteristics that influence serum AFP levels in patients with HCC. These findings should be taken into account as limitations in interpreting the oncologic meaning of this biomarker in clinical practice.

Identification of naïve HCV-1 patients with chronic hepatitis who may benefit from dual therapy with peg-interferon and ribavirin.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The pool of HCV genotype 1 patients likely to be cured by peg-interferon and ribavirin remains to be quantified. METHODS: In 1045 patients treated with peg-interferon and ribavirin, two therapeutic strategies were confronted: the first one evaluated only baseline variables associated with sustained virological response (SVR), and the second one included the rapid virologic response (RVR) in addition to baseline predictors. An 80% SVR rate was the threshold to retain a strategy as clinically relevant. RESULTS: Overall, 414 patients (39.6%) attained SVR. In the first strategy, the hierarchy of features independently associated with SVR was IL28B CC genotype (OR 5.082; CI 3.637-7.101), low (<400,000 IU) viremia (OR 2.907; CI 2.111-4.004), F0-F2 fibrosis (OR 1.631; CI 1.122-2.372) and type 2 diabetes (OR 0.528; CI 0.286-0.972). In the alternative strategy, SVR was associated with RVR (OR 6.273; CI 4.274-9.208), IL28B CC genotype (OR 3.306; CI 2.301-4.751), low viremia (OR 2.175; CI 1.542-3.070), and F0-F2 fibrosis (OR 1.506; CI 1.012-2.242). Combining the favorable baseline variables, the rates of SVR ranged from 42.4% to 83.3%, but only 66 patients (6.3%, overall) with all predictors could be anticipated to reach the >80% SVR threshold. Only 26.6% of no-RVR patients attained SVR. Among the 255 RVR patients, the likelihood of SVR was 61.8% in those with unfavorable predictors, 80% in the presence of a single predictor, and 100% when both predictors were present. By using this model, 200 patients (19.1%) were predicted to have an 80% chance of being cured with dual therapy. CONCLUSIONS: A consistent subset of naïve HCV-1 patients, identified by some baseline characteristics and RVR, may benefit from dual treatment with peg-interferon and ribavirin.