Severe morbidity among hospitalised adults with acute influenza and other respiratory infections: 2014-2015 and 2015-2016.

Our objective was to identify predictors of severe acute respiratory infection in hospitalised patients and understand the impact of vaccination and neuraminidase inhibitor administration on severe influenza. We analysed data from a study evaluating influenza vaccine effectiveness in two Michigan hospitals during the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 influenza seasons. Adults admitted to the hospital with an acute respiratory infection were eligible. Through patient interview and medical record review, we evaluated potential risk factors for severe disease, defined as ICU admission, 30-day readmission, and hospital length of stay (LOS). Two hundred sixteen of 1119 participants had PCR-confirmed influenza. Frailty score, Charlson score and tertile of prior-year healthcare visits were associated with LOS. Charlson score >2 (OR 1.5 (1.0-2.3)) was associated with ICU admission. Highest tertile of prior-year visits (OR 0.3 (0.2-0.7)) was associated with decreased ICU admission. Increasing tertile of visits (OR 1.5 (1.2-1.8)) was associated with 30-day readmission. Frailty and prior-year healthcare visits were associated with 30-day readmission among influenza-positive participants. Neuraminidase inhibitors were associated with decreased LOS among vaccinated participants with influenza A (HR 1.6 (1.0-2.4)). Overall, frailty and lack of prior-year healthcare visits were predictors of disease severity. Neuraminidase inhibitors were associated with reduced severity among vaccine recipients.

A probability model for evaluating the bias and precision of influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates from case-control studies.

As influenza vaccination is now widely recommended, randomized clinical trials are no longer ethical in many populations. Therefore, observational studies on patients seeking medical care for acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) are a popular option for estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). We developed a probability model for evaluating and comparing bias and precision of estimates of VE against symptomatic influenza from two commonly used case-control study designs: the test-negative design and the traditional case-control design. We show that when vaccination does not affect the probability of developing non-influenza ARI then VE estimates from test-negative design studies are unbiased even if vaccinees and non-vaccinees have different probabilities of seeking medical care against ARI, as long as the ratio of these probabilities is the same for illnesses resulting from influenza and non-influenza infections. Our numerical results suggest that in general, estimates from the test-negative design have smaller bias compared to estimates from the traditional case-control design as long as the probability of non-influenza ARI is similar among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. We did not find consistent differences between the standard errors of the estimates from the two study designs.

Boys with high body masses have an increased risk of developing asthma: findings from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY).

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relation between body mass index and the development of asthma in children. DESIGN: Prospective study of 4393 asthma-free children followed for up to 14 years. SETTING: Children of participants in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. METHODS: Analysis was limited to children who were followed from birth and were asthma-free during the first 24 months of life. The outcome was the development of asthma during follow-up (incident asthma). Body mass index (BMI) was our main predictor of interest. Survival analyses, using time to development of asthma as the main endpoint, were stratified by sex and controlled for race/ethnicity, poverty status, and prenatal maternal smoking. RESULTS: Asthma developed in 218 (5.0 %) children during the follow-up period. The relation between BMI and incident asthma varied by sex. A BMI > or =85th percentile at age 2-3 years was a risk factor for subsequent asthma development in boys (hazard ratio (HR) 1.6 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1, 2.4) but not girls (HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.5, 1.4). Similarly, boys with BMIs always > or =85th percentile were at increased risk for subsequent asthma development (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.4, 4.4) but not girls (HR 1.5, 95% CI 0.7, 2.9). CONCLUSION: Boys with high body masses may be at an increased risk for developing asthma.

Risk factors for prevalence of and mortality related to restriction on spirometry: findings from the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To define risk factors for both restriction on spirometry and subsequent mortality in a national cohort of US adults. METHODS: Participants in the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) were followed for up to 22 years. Subjects were classified using the forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), the forced vital capacity (FVC), and the FEV1/FVC ratio into subgroups with and without restriction on spirometry. Regression models were developed to determine risk factors for restriction on spirometry and death. RESULTS: Our final cohort consisted of 4320 subjects, of whom 481 (10.3 weighted %) had restriction on spirometry. The largest risk factors for restriction on spirometry were a cardiothoracic ratio of >55% (OR 4.3, 95%CI 3.1-5.9), race other than black or white (OR 3.7, 95%CI 1.8-7.8), and a history of stroke or paralysis (OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.1-2.9). The overall mortality rate was increased in subjects with restriction on spirometry (25.7 vs. 10.3 deaths per 1000 person-years). CONCLUSIONS: Restriction on spirometry is associated with comorbid disease and increased mortality, and is present in a significant proportion of the population.