Unraveling the effect of temperature and humidity on the life cycle of Diatraea saccharalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and the impact on pest outbreaks.

Temperature and humidity are considered the main abiotic factors that affect both the development and survival of ectothermic organisms. In this study, we estimated the development time as well as the thermal requirements of the sugarcane borer, Diatraea saccharalis (Fabricius, 1794; Lepidoptera: Crambidae), a key insect pest of sugarcane and discussed the influence of temperature and relative humidity and its infestation intensity in a scenario of climate change. The models Brière-1 and Ikemoto-Takai provided the best fit to the data of development rate versus temperature. The average life cycle (from egg to adult) ranged from 39.21 ± 4.84 at 32 °C to 137.10 ± 7.47 at 18 °C days. The thermal constant and average base temperature were 547.69 degree-days and 13.64 °C, respectively. The number of larval instars varied from 4 to 7 depending on the temperature, being higher at lower temperatures. The thermal range comprised the interval from 16.7 °C to 33.9 °C and the optimum temperature was estimated as 27.4 °C. Locations with elevated temperature (≥25 °C) and high relative humidity (≥70%) presented larger populations of D. saccharalis. Our findings show that the infestation pressure of this species is highly influenced by both temperature and humidity, and the studied models allow to forecast pest outbreaks. In the context of climate change, information about the thermal range and the optimum temperature contributes to predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of D. saccharalis and, consequently, aids decision making in pest management.

Modeling the Resistance Evolution to Insecticides Driven by Lepidopteran Species Competition in Cotton, Soybean, and Corn Crops.

Intra- and interspecific competition is considered a fundamental phenomenon in ecology. It acts as one of the most powerful selective forces that drives ecological diversity, the spatiotemporal distribution of organisms, fitness, and evolutionary aspects. Spodoptera frugiperda and Helicoverpa armigera are devastating pests and can co-occur in systems consisting of multiple agricultural crops and compete for food resources. Insecticide resistance in populations of these species has been a major threat to the sustainability of agroecosystems. No study to date has shown the effect of intra- and interspecific competition as a selective pressure agent on the evolution of insecticide resistance in lepidopteran pests in an experimental and theoretical way. Our study developed a parameterized computational model with experimental results for S. frugiperda and H. armigera competition. We simulated the behavior of heterozygous individuals with a competition capacity 100% equal to homozygous individuals resistant (100 RR) or susceptible to insecticides (00 RR), and intermediate between them (50 RR). Competition involving strains of these insect species can accelerate the evolution of their resistance to insecticides in agricultural crops. We found that competitive processes can result in a high probability of competitive exclusion for individuals with the susceptibility allele of these lepidopteran species. The results of this study are of paramount importance for understanding the impact of ecological factor competition on the evolution of insecticide resistance in lepidopteran pests, which until now has been neglected in these types of evolutionary dynamics studies.

A snapshot of a pandemic: The interplay between social isolation and COVID-19 dynamics in Brazil.

In response to the coronavirus pandemic, governments implemented social distancing, attempting to block the virus spread within territories. While it is well accepted that social isolation plays a role in epidemic control, the precise connections between mobility data indicators and epidemic dynamics are still a challenge. In this work, we investigate the dependency between a social isolation index and epidemiological metrics for several Brazilian cities. Classic statistical methods are employed to support the findings. As a first, initially surprising, result, we illustrate how there seems to be no apparent functional relationship between social isolation data and later effects on disease incidence. However, further investigations identified two regimes of successful employment of social isolation: as a preventive measure or as a remedy, albeit remedy measures require greater social isolation and bring higher burden to health systems. Additionally, we exhibit cases of successful strategies involving lockdowns and an indicator-based mobility restriction plan.

Modeling the Relationship Between Antibody-Dependent Enhancement and Disease Severity in Secondary Dengue Infection.

Sequential infections with different dengue serotypes (DENV-1, 4) significantly increase the risk of a severe disease outcome (fever, shock, and hemorrhagic disorders). Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain the severity of the disease: (1) antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and (2) original T cell antigenic sin. In this work, we explored the first hypothesis through mathematical modeling. The proposed model reproduces the dynamic of susceptible and infected target cells and dengue virus in scenarios of infection-neutralizing and infection-enhancing antibody competition induced by two distinct serotypes of the dengue virus during secondary infection. The enhancement and neutralization functions are derived from basic concepts of chemical reactions and used to mimic binding to the virus by two distinct populations of antibodies. The analytic study of the model showed the existence of two equilibriums: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic one. Using the concept of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], we performed the asymptotic stability analysis for the two equilibriums. To measure the severity of the disease, we considered the maximum value of infected cells as well as the time when this maximum is reached. We observed that it corresponds to the time when the maximum enhancing activity for the infection occurs. This critical time was calculated from the model to be a few days after the occurrence of the infection, which corresponds to what is observed in the literature. Finally, using as output [Formula: see text], we were able to rank the contribution of each parameter of the model. In particular, we highlighted that the cross-reactive antibody responses may be responsible for the disease enhancement during secondary heterologous dengue infection.

Modelling movement and stage-specific habitat preferences of a polyphagous insect pest.

BACKGROUND: The feeding preferences of Diabrotica speciosa (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) cause a parent-offspring conflict, as providing the best host for the offspring development is detrimental to adult survival and fecundity. Understanding the implications of this conflict could help entomologists to implement pest-management programs. With this in mind, the foraging behaviour of D. speciosa was investigated using an individual-based model in two distinct scenarios. METHODS: In an intercropping scenario, parent-offspring conflict was simulated when adult insects exploit two crops (corn and soybean) that provide different nutritional advantages for each insect stage. First, we compared three hypothetical types of adult dispersal, considering a continuous oviposition over time: diffusion, attracted to a fixed host and alternating the preference between hosts with frequency 1 τ , where τ is the time in days spent foraging for each host. We also simulated two principles: "mother knows best" (adult females foraging for corn during the oviposition period) and "optimal bad motherhood" (adult females remain foraging for soybean to maximise their own fitness during the oviposition period), but considering the existence of a pre-oviposition period. In a landscape scenario, we investigated the population dynamics in an area composed by 4 crop plots that change over time. RESULTS: Among dispersal types considering continuous oviposition, the crop-alternating movement a-3 performed best, when close to an optimal τ. Additionally, τ was predicted to be influenced mainly by the width of crop rows. We also verified that the "mother knows best" strategy is better for the population growth than the "optimal bad motherhood". In the landscape scenario, we observed that including fallow periods in the crop calendar and adopting a more-heterogeneous arrangement of crop plots reduced the density of this insect. CONCLUSION: Both the continuous and sequential oviposition simulations indicate that foraging involving switching of target crop benefits population fitness. In the landscape scenario, arranging crop plots more heterogeneously and avoiding vast areas of soybean can help farmers to control this insect pest. Additionally, fallow periods can also reduce significantly D. speciosa populations.

Maternal Passive Immunity and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Infants.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) can occur in primary dengue virus infection of infants [Formula: see text] year of age. To understand the presumed role of maternal dengue-specific antibodies received until birth in the development of this primary DHF in infants, we investigated a mathematical model based on a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations that mimics cells, virus and antibodies interactions. The neutralization and enhancement activities of maternal antibodies against the virus are represented by a function derived from experimental data and knowledge from the medical literature. The analytic study of the model shows the existence of two equilibriums, a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic one. We performed the asymptotic stability analysis for these two equilibriums. The local asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium (DHF equilibrium) corresponds to the occurrence of DHF. Numerical results are also presented in order to illustrate the mathematical analysis performed, highlighting the most important parameters that drive model dynamics. We defined the age at which DHF occurs as the time when the infection takes off that means at the inflection point of the curve of infected cell population. We showed that this age corresponds to the one at which maximum enhancing activity for dengue infection appears. This critical time for the occurrence of DHF is calculated from the model to be approximately 2 months after the time for maternal dengue neutralizing antibodies to degrade below a protective level, which corresponds to what is observed in the experimental data from the literature.

Heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities and its influence on the optimal age of vaccination.

BACKGROUND: The development of a safe and effective vaccine is considered crucial for dengue transmission control since vetor control has been failed; some potential candidates are currently in test, and in this context theoretical studies are necessary to evaluate vaccination strategies such as the age groups that should be vaccinated, the percentage of the population at risk, and the target geographic regions to make dengue control feasible and optimal. METHODS: A partial differential model is used to mimics dengue transmission in human population in order to estimate the optimal vaccination age, using data collected from dengue reported cases in ten cities of Brazil from 2001 to 2014. For this purpose, the basic reproduction number of the disease was minimized assuming a single-dose vaccination strategy, equal vaccine efficacy for all circulating serotypes, and no vaccine failure. Numerical methods were used to assess the optimal vaccination age and its confidence age range. RESULTS: The results reveal complex spatial-temporal patterns associated to the disease transmission, highlighting the heterogeneity in defining the target population for dengue vaccination. However, the values obtained for the optimal age of vaccination, as targeting individuals under 13 years old, are compatible with the ones reported in similar studies in Brazil. The results also show that the optimal age for vaccination in general does not match with the age of the highest number of cases. CONCLUSIONS: The variation of the optimal age for vaccination across the country reflects heterogeneities in dengue spatial-temporal transmission in Brazilian cities, and can be used to define the target population and cities to optimize vaccination strategies in a context of high cost and low quantity of available vaccine.

Modelling the impact of the long-term use of insecticide-treated bed nets on Anopheles mosquito biting time.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of changing in biting and resting behaviour of the main malaria vectors has been mounting up in recent years as a result of selective pressure by the widespread and long-term use of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs), and indoor residual spraying. The impact of resistance behaviour on malaria intervention efficacy has important implications for the epidemiology and malaria control programmes. In this context, a theoretical framework is presented to understand the mechanisms determining the evolution of feeding behaviour under the pressure of use of ITNs. METHODS: An agent-based stochastic model simulates the impact of insecticide-treated bed nets on mosquito fitness by reducing the biting rates, as well as increasing mortality rates. The model also incorporates a heritability function that provides the necessary genetic plasticity upon which natural selection would act to maximize the fitness under the pressure of the control strategy. RESULTS: The asymptotic equilibrium distribution of mosquito population versus biting time is shown for several daily uses of ITNs, and the expected disruptive selection on this mosquito trait is observed in the simulations. The relative fitness of strains that bite at much earlier time with respect to the wild strains, when a threshold of about 50% of ITNs coverage highlights the hypothesis of a behaviour selection. A sensitivity analysis has shown that the top three parameters that play a dominant role on the mosquito fitness are the proportion of individuals using bed nets and its effectiveness, the impact of bed nets on mosquito oviposition, and the mosquito genetic plasticity related to changing in biting time. CONCLUSION: By taking the evolutionary aspect into account, the model was able to show that the long-term use of ITNs, although representing an undisputed success in reducing malaria incidence and mortality in many affected areas, is not free of undesirable side effects. From the evolutionary point of view of the parasite virulence, it should be expected that plasmodium parasites would be under pressure to reduce their virulence. This speculative hypothesis can eventually be demonstrated in the medium to long-term use of ITNs.

Landscape diversity influences dispersal and establishment of pest with complex nutritional ecology.

We studied the effects of landscape structure on species with resource nutritional partition between the immature and adult stages by investigating how food quality and spatial structure of a landscape may affect the invasion and colonization of the insect pest, Diabrotica speciosa. To this end, we formulated two bidimensional stochastic cellular automata, one for the insect immature stage and the other for the adult stage. The automata are coupled by adult oviposition and emergence. Further, each automata site has a specific culture type, which can affect differently the fitness attributes of immatures and adults, such as mortality, development and oviposition rates. We derived the mean-field approximation for these automata model, from which we obtained conditions for insect invasion. We ran numerical simulations using entomological parameters obtained from laboratory experiments (using bean, soybean, potato, and corn crops), and we compared the results of the automata with the ones given by the mean-field approximation. Finally, using artificially generated landscapes, we discussed how the structured heterogeneous landscape can affect dispersal and establishment of insect populations.

The role of immunity and seasonality in cholera epidemics.

This paper presents a mathematical model for cholera epidemics which comprises seasonality, loss of host immunity, and control mechanisms acting to reduce cholera transmission. A collection of data related to cholera disease allows us to show that outbreaks in endemic areas are subject to a resonant behavior, since the intrinsic oscillation period of the disease (∼1 year) is synchronized with the annual contact rate variation. Moreover, we argue that the short period of the host immunity may be associated to secondary peaks of incidence observed in some regions (a bimodal pattern). Finally, we explore some possible mechanisms of cholera control, and analyze their efficiency. We conclude that, besides mass vaccination--which may be impracticable--improvements in sanitation system and food/personal hygiene are the most effective ways to prevent an epidemic.

Ecological modeling and pest population management: a possible and necessary connection in a changing world / Modelagem ecológica e manejo de populações de pragas: uma conexão possível e necessária para um mundo em transformação

Ecological modeling is an important tool for investigating dynamic behavior patterns in populations, trophic interactions, and behavioral ecology. However, the ecological patterns that reflect population oscillation trends are often not clearly visible without analytical instruments such as ecological models. Thus, ecological modeling plays a fundamental role in describing demographic processes that are important for population dynamics. Ecological models, besides making possible the visualization of ecological patterns, may also reveal patterns of population persistence in many trophic systems, including prey-predator or host-parasitoid relationships, interactions that are commonly present in integrated pest management programs. In this forum, we present the main ecological aspects important for model building and implementation of integrated pest management programs for insects. Particularly, in this study, we analyze the combination between host-parasitoid models and the concept of economic threshold level on a spatio-temporal scale. As a conclusion about the model combination, spatial structure is essential for models of this nature, since its introduction into the system significantly alters the economic threshold-level values.

A modelagem ecológica é uma ferramenta importante para a investigação de padrões de comportamento dinâmico em populações, interações tróficas e também em ecologia comportamental. Contudo, os padrões ecológicos que refletem tendências de oscilação populacional muitas vezes não são claramente visíveis sem instrumentos analíticos, como os modelos ecológicos. Dessa forma, a modelagem ecológica exerce papel fundamental na descrição de processos demográficos importantes para a dinâmica populacional. Os modelos ecológicos, além de tornarem possível a visualização de padrões ecológicos, podem também revelar padrões de persistência populacional nos diversos sistemas tróficos, incluindo as relações presa-predador ou hospedeiro-parasitóide, interações comumente presentes em programas de manejo integrado de pragas. Neste fórum apresentamos os principais aspectos ecológicos importantes para a construção de modelos e implementação de programa de manejo de pragas em insetos. Em particular, analisamos a combinação entre modelos hospedeiro-parasitóide e o conceito de nível de dano em escala espaço-temporal. Como conclusão sobre a combinação de modelos, evidencia-se que a estrutura espacial é essencial para modelos desta natureza, já que sua introdução no sistema altera significativamente os valores de nível de dano econômico.

Ecological modeling and pest population management: a possible and necessary connection in a changing world.

Ecological modeling is an important tool for investigating dynamic behavior patterns in populations, trophic interactions, and behavioral ecology. However, the ecological patterns that reflect population oscillation trends are often not clearly visible without analytical instruments such as ecological models. Thus, ecological modeling plays a fundamental role in describing demographic processes that are important for population dynamics. Ecological models, besides making possible the visualization of ecological patterns, may also reveal patterns of population persistence in many trophic systems, including prey-predator or host-parasitoid relationships, interactions that are commonly present in integrated pest management programs. In this forum, we present the main ecological aspects important for model building and implementation of integrated pest management programs for insects. Particularly, in this study, we analyze the combination between host-parasitoid models and the concept of economic threshold level on a spatio-temporal scale. As a conclusion about the model combination, spatial structure is essential for models of this nature, since its introduction into the system significantly alters the economic threshold-level values.

Nonequilibrium phase transitions in a model for the origin of life.

The requisites for the persistence of small colonies of self-replicating molecules living in a two-dimensional lattice are investigated analytically in the infinite diffusion or mean-field limit and through Monte Carlo simulations in the position-fixed or contact process limit. The molecules are modeled by hypercyclic replicators A that are capable of replicating via binary fission A+E-->2A with production rate s, as well as via catalytically assisted replication 2A+E-->3A with rate c. In addition, a molecule can degrade into its source materials E with rate gamma. In the asymptotic regime, the system can be characterized by the presence (active phase) and the absence (empty phase) of replicators in the lattice. In both diffusion regimes, we find that for small values of the ratio c/gamma these phases are separated by a second-order phase transition that is in the universality class of the directed percolation, while for small values of s/gamma the phase transition is of first order. Furthermore, we show the suitability of the dynamic Monte Carlo method, which is based on the analysis of the spreading behavior of a few active cells in the center of an otherwise infinite empty lattice, to address the problem of the emergence of replicators. Rather surprisingly, we show that this method allows an unambiguous identification of the order of the nonequilibrium phase transition.