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Political advertising on social media has become a central element in election campaigns. However, granular information about political advertising on social media was previously unavailable, thus raising concerns regarding fairness, accountability, and transparency in the electoral process. In this article, we analyze targeted political advertising on social media via a unique, large-scale dataset of over 80,000 political ads from Meta during the 2021 German federal election, with more than 1.1 billion impressions. For each political ad, our dataset records granular information about targeting strategies, spending, and actual impressions. We then study (i) the prevalence of targeted ads across the political spectrum; (ii) the discrepancies between targeted and actual audiences due to algorithmic ad delivery; and (iii) which targeting strategies on social media attain a wide reach at low cost. We find that targeted ads are prevalent across the entire political spectrum. Moreover, there are considerable discrepancies between targeted and actual audiences, and systematic differences in the reach of political ads (in impressions-per-EUR) among parties, where the algorithm favor ads from populists over others.
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BACKGROUND: Hypoglycemia threatens cognitive function and driving safety. Previous research investigated in-vehicle voice assistants as hypoglycemia warnings. However, they could startle drivers. To address this, we combine voice warnings with ambient LEDs. OBJECTIVE: The study assesses the effect of in-vehicle multimodal warning on emotional reaction and technology acceptance among drivers with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Two studies were conducted, one in simulated driving and the other in real-world driving. A quasi-experimental design included 2 independent variables (blood glucose phase and warning modality) and 1 main dependent variable (emotional reaction). Blood glucose was manipulated via intravenous catheters, and warning modality was manipulated by combining a tablet voice warning app and LEDs. Emotional reaction was measured physiologically via skin conductance response and subjectively with the Affective Slider and tested with a mixed-effect linear model. Secondary outcomes included self-reported technology acceptance. Participants were recruited from Bern University Hospital, Switzerland. RESULTS: The simulated and real-world driving studies involved 9 and 10 participants with type 1 diabetes, respectively. Both studies showed significant results in self-reported emotional reactions (P<.001). In simulated driving, neither warning modality nor blood glucose phase significantly affected self-reported arousal, but in real-world driving, both did (F2,68=4.3; P<.05 and F2,76=4.1; P=.03). Warning modality affected self-reported valence in simulated driving (F2,68=3.9; P<.05), while blood glucose phase affected it in real-world driving (F2,76=9.3; P<.001). Skin conductance response did not yield significant results neither in the simulated driving study (modality: F2,68=2.46; P=.09, blood glucose phase: F2,68=0.3; P=.74), nor in the real-world driving study (modality: F2,76=0.8; P=.47, blood glucose phase: F2,76=0.7; P=.5). In both simulated and real-world driving studies, the voice+LED warning modality was the most effective (simulated: mean 3.38, SD 1.06 and real-world: mean 3.5, SD 0.71) and urgent (simulated: mean 3.12, SD 0.64 and real-world: mean 3.6, SD 0.52). Annoyance varied across settings. The standard warning modality was the least effective (simulated: mean 2.25, SD 1.16 and real-world: mean 3.3, SD 1.06) and urgent (simulated: mean 1.88, SD 1.55 and real-world: mean 2.6, SD 1.26) and the most annoying (simulated: mean 2.25, SD 1.16 and real-world: mean 1.7, SD 0.95). In terms of preference, the voice warning modality outperformed the standard warning modality. In simulated driving, the voice+LED warning modality (mean rank 1.5, SD rank 0.82) was preferred over the voice (mean rank 2.2, SD rank 0.6) and standard (mean rank 2.4, SD rank 0.81) warning modalities, while in real-world driving, the voice+LED and voice warning modalities were equally preferred (mean rank 1.8, SD rank 0.79) to the standard warning modality (mean rank 2.4, SD rank 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the mixed results, this paper highlights the potential of implementing voice assistant-based health warnings in cars and advocates for multimodal alerts to enhance hypoglycemia management while driving. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05183191; https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05183191, ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05308095; https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05308095.
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Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1 , Hipoglucemia , Humanos , Nivel de Alerta , Automóviles , GlucemiaRESUMEN
Causal machine learning (ML) offers flexible, data-driven methods for predicting treatment outcomes including efficacy and toxicity, thereby supporting the assessment and safety of drugs. A key benefit of causal ML is that it allows for estimating individualized treatment effects, so that clinical decision-making can be personalized to individual patient profiles. Causal ML can be used in combination with both clinical trial data and real-world data, such as clinical registries and electronic health records, but caution is needed to avoid biased or incorrect predictions. In this Perspective, we discuss the benefits of causal ML (relative to traditional statistical or ML approaches) and outline the key components and steps. Finally, we provide recommendations for the reliable use of causal ML and effective translation into the clinic.
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Toma de Decisiones Clínicas , Aprendizaje Automático , Humanos , Causalidad , Resultado del Tratamiento , Registros Electrónicos de SaludRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Hypoglycemia is a frequent and acute complication in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and is associated with a higher risk of car mishaps. Currently, hypoglycemia can be detected and signaled through flash glucose monitoring or continuous glucose monitoring devices, which require manual and visual interaction, thereby removing the focus of attention from the driving task. Hypoglycemia causes a decrease in attention, thereby challenging the safety of using such devices behind the wheel. Here, we present an investigation of a hands-free technology-a voice warning that can potentially be delivered via an in-vehicle voice assistant. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the feasibility of an in-vehicle voice warning for hypoglycemia, evaluating both its effectiveness and user perception. METHODS: We designed a voice warning and evaluated it in 3 studies. In all studies, participants received a voice warning while driving. Study 0 (n=10) assessed the feasibility of using a voice warning with healthy participants driving in a simulator. Study 1 (n=18) assessed the voice warning in participants with T1DM. Study 2 (n=20) assessed the voice warning in participants with T1DM undergoing hypoglycemia while driving in a real car. We measured participants' self-reported perception of the voice warning (with a user experience scale in study 0 and with acceptance, alliance, and trust scales in studies 1 and 2) and compliance behavior (whether they stopped the car and reaction time). In addition, we assessed technology affinity and collected the participants' verbal feedback. RESULTS: Technology affinity was similar across studies and approximately 70% of the maximal value. Perception measure of the voice warning was approximately 62% to 78% in the simulated driving and 34% to 56% in real-world driving. Perception correlated with technology affinity on specific constructs (eg, Affinity for Technology Interaction score and intention to use, optimism and performance expectancy, behavioral intention, Session Alliance Inventory score, innovativeness and hedonic motivation, and negative correlations between discomfort and behavioral intention and discomfort and competence trust; all P<.05). Compliance was 100% in all studies, whereas reaction time was higher in study 1 (mean 23, SD 5.2 seconds) than in study 0 (mean 12.6, SD 5.7 seconds) and study 2 (mean 14.6, SD 4.3 seconds). Finally, verbal feedback showed that the participants preferred the voice warning to be less verbose and interactive. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to investigate the feasibility of an in-vehicle voice warning for hypoglycemia. Drivers find such an implementation useful and effective in a simulated environment, but improvements are needed in the real-world driving context. This study is a kickoff for the use of in-vehicle voice assistants for digital health interventions.
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Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1 , Hipoglucemia , Humanos , Glucemia , Automonitorización de la Glucosa Sanguínea , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/complicaciones , Estudios de Factibilidad , Hipoglucemia/diagnóstico , PercepciónAsunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1 , Hipoglucemia , Humanos , Hipoglucemia/diagnóstico , Glucemia , CogniciónRESUMEN
Green technologies, such as solar panels, foster the use of clean energy, yet often involve large-scale investments. Hence, adoption by retail consumers has been a key barrier. Here, we show that message framing can significantly increase customers' serious commitment to adopting solar panels by providing empirical evidence in the field from a large-scale randomized controlled trial with a nationwide online retailer in the Netherlands (N = 26,873 participants). We design four messages aimed at promoting the purchase behavior of solar panel installations. Our messages present outcomes for oneself or for the environment and highlight cost savings versus earnings (for oneself) or reducing emissions versus generating green electricity (for the environment). Across all messages, we observe a higher rate of customers committing to solar panels compared to the baseline. However, the framing in terms of financial savings for oneself was by far the most effective, resulting in a 40% higher level of commitment than the baseline and 30% higher than the average of the other three messages, which were not significantly different in effect from each other. Our results show that message framing is cost-efficient and scalable among retail consumers to promote large-scale investments in green technologies and thus clean energy.
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AIMS: To analyse glycaemic patterns of professional athletes with type 1 diabetes during a competitive season. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analysed continuous glucose monitoring data of 12 professional male cyclists with type 1 diabetes during exercise, recovery and sleep on days with competitive exercise (CE) and non-competitive exercise (NCE). We assessed whether differences exist between CE and NCE days and analysed associations between exercise and dysglycaemia. RESULTS: The mean glycated haemoglobin was 50 ± 5 mmol/mol (6.7 ± 0.5%). The athletes cycled on 280.8 ± 28.1 days (entire season 332.6 ± 18.8 days). Overall, time in range (3.9-10 mmol/L) was 70.0 ± 13.7%, time in hypoglycaemia (<3.9 mmol/L) was 6.4 ± 4.7% and time in hyperglycaemia (>10 mmol/L) was 23.6 ± 12.5%. During the nights of NCE days, athletes spent 10.1 ± 7.4% of time in hypoglycaemia, particularly after exercise in the endurance zones. The CE days were characterized by a higher time in hyperglycaemia compared with NCE days (25.2 ± 12.5% vs. 22.2 ± 12.1%, p = .012). This was driven by the CE phase, where time in range dropped to 60.4 ± 13.0% and time in hyperglycaemia was elevated (38.5 ± 12.9%). Mean glucose was higher during CE compared with NCE sessions (9.6 ± 0.9 mmol/L vs. 7.8 ± 1.1 mmol/L, p < .001). The probability of hyperglycaemia during exercise was particularly increased with longer duration, higher intensity and higher variability of exercise. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis of glycaemic patterns of professional endurance athletes revealed that overall glycaemia was generally within targets. For further improvement, athletes, team staff and caregivers may focus on hyperglycaemia during competitions and nocturnal hypoglycaemia after NCE.
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Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1 , Hiperglucemia , Hipoglucemia , Humanos , Masculino , Glucemia , Automonitorización de la Glucosa Sanguínea , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estaciones del Año , Hiperglucemia/prevención & control , Atletas , SueñoRESUMEN
Online media is important for society in informing and shaping opinions, hence raising the question of what drives online news consumption. Here we analyse the causal effect of negative and emotional words on news consumption using a large online dataset of viral news stories. Specifically, we conducted our analyses using a series of randomized controlled trials (N = 22,743). Our dataset comprises ~105,000 different variations of news stories from Upworthy.com that generated â¼5.7 million clicks across more than 370 million overall impressions. Although positive words were slightly more prevalent than negative words, we found that negative words in news headlines increased consumption rates (and positive words decreased consumption rates). For a headline of average length, each additional negative word increased the click-through rate by 2.3%. Our results contribute to a better understanding of why users engage with online media.
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Emociones , Conducta en la Búsqueda de Información , Internet , Medios de Comunicación de Masas , Humanos , CausalidadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Micro- and macrovascular complications are a major burden for individuals with diabetes and can already arise in a prediabetic state. To allocate effective treatments and to possibly prevent these complications, identification of those at risk is essential. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to build machine learning (ML) models that predict the risk of developing a micro- or macrovascular complication in individuals with prediabetes or diabetes. METHODS: In this study, we used electronic health records from Israel that contain information about demographics, biomarkers, medications, and disease codes; span from 2003 to 2013; and were queried to identify individuals with prediabetes or diabetes in 2008. Subsequently, we aimed to predict which of these individuals developed a micro- or macrovascular complication within the next 5 years. We included 3 microvascular complications: retinopathy, nephropathy, and neuropathy. In addition, we considered 3 macrovascular complications: peripheral vascular disease (PVD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Complications were identified via disease codes, and, for nephropathy, the estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria were considered additionally. Inclusion criteria were complete information on age and sex and on disease codes (or measurements of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria for nephropathy) until 2013 to account for patient dropout. Exclusion criteria for predicting a complication were diagnosis of this specific complication before or in 2008. In total, 105 predictors from demographics, biomarkers, medications, and disease codes were used to build the ML models. We compared 2 ML models: logistic regression and gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs). To explain the predictions of the GBDTs, we calculated Shapley additive explanations values. RESULTS: Overall, 13,904 and 4259 individuals with prediabetes and diabetes, respectively, were identified in our underlying data set. For individuals with prediabetes, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for logistic regression and GBDTs were, respectively, 0.657 and 0.681 (retinopathy), 0.807 and 0.815 (nephropathy), 0.727 and 0.706 (neuropathy), 0.730 and 0.727 (PVD), 0.687 and 0.693 (CeVD), and 0.707 and 0.705 (CVD); for individuals with diabetes, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were, respectively, 0.673 and 0.726 (retinopathy), 0.763 and 0.775 (nephropathy), 0.745 and 0.771 (neuropathy), 0.698 and 0.715 (PVD), 0.651 and 0.646 (CeVD), and 0.686 and 0.680 (CVD). Overall, the prediction performance is comparable for logistic regression and GBDTs. The Shapley additive explanations values showed that increased levels of blood glucose, glycated hemoglobin, and serum creatinine are risk factors for microvascular complications. Age and hypertension were associated with an elevated risk for macrovascular complications. CONCLUSIONS: Our ML models allow for an identification of individuals with prediabetes or diabetes who are at increased risk of developing micro- or macrovascular complications. The prediction performance varied across complications and target populations but was in an acceptable range for most prediction tasks.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Diabetes Mellitus , Estado Prediabético , Humanos , Estado Prediabético/diagnóstico , Albuminuria , Estudios Retrospectivos , Aprendizaje AutomáticoRESUMEN
AIM: To develop and evaluate the concept of a non-invasive machine learning (ML) approach for detecting hypoglycaemia based exclusively on combined driving (CAN) and eye tracking (ET) data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We first developed and tested our ML approach in pronounced hypoglycaemia, and then we applied it to mild hypoglycaemia to evaluate its early warning potential. For this, we conducted two consecutive, interventional studies in individuals with type 1 diabetes. In study 1 (n = 18), we collected CAN and ET data in a driving simulator during euglycaemia and pronounced hypoglycaemia (blood glucose [BG] 2.0-2.5 mmol L-1 ). In study 2 (n = 9), we collected CAN and ET data in the same simulator but in euglycaemia and mild hypoglycaemia (BG 3.0-3.5 mmol L-1 ). RESULTS: Here, we show that our ML approach detects pronounced and mild hypoglycaemia with high accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve 0.88 ± 0.10 and 0.83 ± 0.11, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that an ML approach based on CAN and ET data, exclusively, enables detection of hypoglycaemia while driving. This provides a promising concept for alternative and non-invasive detection of hypoglycaemia.
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Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1 , Hipoglucemia , Humanos , Hipoglucemia/inducido químicamente , Hipoglucemia/diagnóstico , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/complicaciones , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/diagnóstico , Glucemia , Insulina/efectos adversosRESUMEN
Non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, have been implemented around the world to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Their effectiveness in improving health-related outcomes has been the subject of numerous empirical studies. However, these studies show fairly large variation among methodologies in use, reflecting the absence of an established methodological framework. On the one hand, variation in methodologies may be desirable to assess the robustness of results; on the other hand, a lack of common standards can impede comparability among studies. To establish a comprehensive overview over the methodologies in use, we conducted a systematic review of studies assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions between January 1, 2020 and January 12, 2021 (n = 248). We identified substantial variation in methodologies with respect to study setting, outcome, intervention, methodological approach, and effectiveness assessment. On this basis, we point to shortcomings of existing studies and make recommendations for the design of future studies.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Instituciones AcadémicasRESUMEN
Traditional risk scores for the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D) are typically designed for a general population and, thus, may underperform for people with prediabetes. In this study, we developed machine learning (ML) models predicting the risk of T2D that are specifically tailored to people with prediabetes. We analyzed data of 13,943 individuals with prediabetes, and built a ML model to predict the risk of transition from prediabetes to T2D, integrating information about demographics, biomarkers, medications, and comorbidities defined by disease codes. Additionally, we developed a simplified ML model with only eight predictors, which can be easily integrated into clinical practice. For a forecast horizon of 5 years, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.753 for our full ML model (79 predictors) and 0.752 for the simplified model. Our ML models allow for an early identification of people with prediabetes who are at risk of developing T2D.
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Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Estado Prediabético , Humanos , Estado Prediabético/epidemiología , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiología , Aprendizaje Automático , Curva ROC , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: To provide effective care for inpatients with COVID-19, clinical practitioners need systems that monitor patient health and subsequently allow for risk scoring. Existing approaches for risk scoring in patients with COVID-19 focus primarily on intensive care units (ICUs) with specialized medical measurement devices but not on hospital general wards. OBJECTIVE: In this paper, we aim to develop a risk score for inpatients with COVID-19 in general wards based on consumer-grade wearables (smartwatches). METHODS: Patients wore consumer-grade wearables to record physiological measurements, such as the heart rate (HR), heart rate variability (HRV), and respiration frequency (RF). Based on Bayesian survival analysis, we validated the association between these measurements and patient outcomes (ie, discharge or ICU admission). To build our risk score, we generated a low-dimensional representation of the physiological features. Subsequently, a pooled ordinal regression with time-dependent covariates inferred the probability of either hospital discharge or ICU admission. We evaluated the predictive performance of our developed system for risk scoring in a single-center, prospective study based on 40 inpatients with COVID-19 in a general ward of a tertiary referral center in Switzerland. RESULTS: First, Bayesian survival analysis showed that physiological measurements from consumer-grade wearables are significantly associated with patient outcomes (ie, discharge or ICU admission). Second, our risk score achieved a time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.73-0.90 based on leave-one-subject-out cross-validation. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of consumer-grade wearables for risk scoring in inpatients with COVID-19. Due to their low cost and ease of use, consumer-grade wearables could enable a scalable monitoring system. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04357834; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04357834.
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To control the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures or stay-at-home orders. Previous work has estimated the effectiveness of NPIs, yet without examining variation in NPI effectiveness across countries. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of [Formula: see text] countries, we estimate country-specific differences in the effectiveness of NPIs via a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Our estimates reveal substantial variation between countries, indicating that NPIs have been more effective in some countries (e. g. Switzerland, New Zealand, and Iceland) as compared to others (e. g. Singapore, South Africa, and France). We then explain differences in the effectiveness of NPIs through 12 country characteristics (e. g. population age, urbanization, employment, etc.). A positive association with country-specific effectiveness of NPIs was found for government effectiveness, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population ages 65+, and health expenditures. Conversely, a negative association with effectiveness of NPIs was found for the share of informal employment, average household size and population density. Overall, the wealth and demographic structure of a country can explain variation in the effectiveness of NPIs.
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COVID-19 , Anciano , Teorema de Bayes , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Gobierno , Humanos , Pandemias/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
IntroductionHuman mobility was considerably reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. To support disease surveillance, it is important to understand the effect of mobility on transmission.AimWe compared the role of mobility during the first and second COVID-19 wave in Switzerland by studying the link between daily travel distances and the effective reproduction number (Rt) of SARS-CoV-2.MethodsWe used aggregated mobile phone data from a representative panel survey of the Swiss population to measure human mobility. We estimated the effects of reductions in daily travel distance on Rt via a regression model. We compared mobility effects between the first (2 March-7 April 2020) and second wave (1 October-10 December 2020).ResultsDaily travel distances decreased by 73% in the first and by 44% in the second wave (relative to February 2020). For a 1% reduction in average daily travel distance, Rt was estimated to decline by 0.73% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.34-1.03) in the first wave and by 1.04% (95% CrI: 0.66-1.42) in the second wave. The estimated mobility effects were similar in both waves for all modes of transport, travel purposes and sociodemographic subgroups but differed for movement radius.ConclusionMobility was associated with SARS-CoV-2 Rt during the first two epidemic waves in Switzerland. The relative effect of mobility was similar in both waves, but smaller mobility reductions in the second wave corresponded to smaller overall reductions in Rt. Mobility data from mobile phones have a continued potential to support real-time surveillance of COVID-19.
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COVID-19 , Número Básico de Reproducción , COVID-19/epidemiología , Humanos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Suiza/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
In digital medicine, patient data typically record health events over time (eg, through electronic health records, wearables, or other sensing technologies) and thus form unique patient trajectories. Patient trajectories are highly predictive of the future course of diseases and therefore facilitate effective care. However, digital medicine often uses only limited patient data, consisting of health events from only a single or small number of time points while ignoring additional information encoded in patient trajectories. To analyze such rich longitudinal data, new artificial intelligence (AI) solutions are needed. In this paper, we provide an overview of the recent efforts to develop trajectory-aware AI solutions and provide suggestions for future directions. Specifically, we examine the implications for developing disease models from patient trajectories along the typical workflow in AI: problem definition, data processing, modeling, evaluation, and interpretation. We conclude with a discussion of how such AI solutions will allow the field to build robust models for personalized risk scoring, subtyping, and disease pathway discovery.
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Inteligencia Artificial , HumanosRESUMEN
False rumors (often termed "fake news") on social media pose a significant threat to modern societies. However, potential reasons for the widespread diffusion of false rumors have been underexplored. In this work, we analyze whether sentiment words, as well as different emotional words, in social media content explain differences in the spread of true vs. false rumors. For this purpose, we collected [Formula: see text] rumor cascades from Twitter, comprising more than 4.5 million retweets that have been fact-checked for veracity. We then categorized the language in social media content to (1) sentiment (i.e., positive vs. negative) and (2) eight basic emotions (i. e., anger, anticipation, disgust, fear, joy, trust, sadness, and surprise). We find that sentiment and basic emotions explain differences in the structural properties of true vs. false rumor cascades. False rumors (as compared to true rumors) are more likely to go viral if they convey a higher proportion of terms associated with a positive sentiment. Further, false rumors are viral when embedding emotional words classified as trust, anticipation, or anger. All else being equal, false rumors conveying one standard deviation more positive sentiment have a 37.58% longer lifetime and reach 61.44% more users. Our findings offer insights into how true vs. false rumors spread and highlight the importance of managing emotions in social media content.