A Cross-Country Study of Cigarette Affordability and Single-Stick Purchases Using Survey Data From African Countries.

INTRODUCTION: Reducing cigarette affordability is paramount for reducing cigarette consumption. Measuring affordability requires data on cigarette prices. Unlike the commonly used retail price of a 20-pack of the most-sold cigarette domestically, survey-derived cigarette prices reflect differences arising from the brand variety and the types of packaging in which cigarettes are purchased. AIMS AND METHODS: This paper uses self-reported cigarette price data from the eight African countries that have implemented the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) to construct country-level Relative Income Prices. The relationship between cigarette affordability, cigarette smoking prevalence, and cigarette smoking intensity, is examined using logit models for smoking participation (N = 51 122) and generalized linear models for conditional cigarette demand (N = 2443). GATS data are also used to produce nationally representative estimates of the prevalence of single-stick cigarette purchases in the sampled countries. RESULTS: The estimated affordability elasticity of cigarette smoking participation is -0.245 (95% CI = -0.411 to -0.078). The estimated affordability elasticity of smoking intensity is -0.155 (95% CI = -0.286 to -0.023). Single-stick cigarette sales dominate all-markets. The proportion of smokers who reported buying cigarettes in the form of single sticks during their most recent cigarette purchase exceeds 90% in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. CONCLUSIONS: The results point to the need for governments in the countries sampled to increase excise taxes in a manner that renders cigarettes less affordable over time, and to enact and enforce legislation that prohibits the sale of single cigarettes. These findings highlight that measures to reduce both the demand and supply of cigarettes will be required to reduce their use in the region. IMPLICATIONS: This study is the first to examine the prevalence of single-stick cigarette purchases, and the association between cigarette affordability and smoking outcomes, in the African setting, using data from the GATS. Findings provide local evidence for the countries sampled, which represent over half of sub-Saharan Africa's adult population (aged 15 and older), on the importance of implementing excise tax increases that reduce cigarette affordability over time. They also highlight the need to enact and enforce legislation that prohibits the sale of single cigarettes.

Cigarette excise tax structure and cigarette prices in nine sub-Saharan African countries: evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey.

BACKGROUND: Economic theory predicts that the excise tax structure influences the distribution of cigarette prices. Evidence shows that uniform specific excise tax structures exhibit the least price variability relative to other tax structures. The distribution of cigarette prices under different excise tax structures has never been examined for a group of African countries. OBJECTIVES: To examine the distribution of cigarette prices under different tax structures in nine African countries and to critically evaluate the effectiveness of African regional tax directives in promoting public health. METHODS: Data from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, conducted in eight African countries during 2012-2018, and data from the 2017 Gambia Tobacco Survey were used to construct survey-derived cigarette prices. The coefficients of variation and skewness of the price distribution were compared in the context of each country's cigarette excise tax structure. RESULTS: The least price variability is found in countries with a uniform specific tax, or a mixed system with a minimum specific floor. Cigarette price variability is largest in countries with uniform ad valorem tax structures. Three of the four countries with ad valorem tax structures are in regional blocs, where the tax directives specify that they should implement an ad valorem structure. CONCLUSIONS: Regional tax directives that require the adoption of uniform specific excise taxes, or high minimum specific floors, could be an efficient way to get multiple African countries to adopt a tax structure that reduces substitution possibilities in response to excise tax increases.

Quitting behavior during the tobacco sales ban in South Africa: Results from a broadly nationally representative survey.

INTRODUCTION: In response to COVID-19, the South African government banned the sale of tobacco products for 20 weeks. Before the ban, the illicit cigarette market was well-entrenched and smoking cessation services were not widely available. Several surveys conducted to ascertain cigarette smokers' responses to the ban reported substantial differences in the proportion of smokers who quit. This study provides a broadly nationally representative ex-post investigation into cigarette smokers' quitting behavior related to the sales ban. METHODS: We used data from wave three of NIDS-CRAM (the National Income Dynamics Study-Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey) conducted in November-December 2020. We first investigated the proportion of people who quit and who continued smoking during and after the sales ban. We subsequently linked the NIDS-CRAM survey to the fifth wave of NIDS (2017) to identify a subset of established smokers, and considered whether their quitting behavior differed from that of all smokers who smoked at the start of the sales ban. RESULTS: The cross-sectional analysis showed that 7.8% of cigarette smokers quit during the sales ban, but that 55% of these quitters relapsed after it was lifted. Of the pre-ban smokers, 3.5% indicated that they did not smoke both during and after the sales ban, and 3.7% quit after the ban was lifted. The longitudinal analysis showed that 7% of people who were smoking in 2017, quit smoking cigarettes during the tobacco sales ban, but that >70% of quitters relapsed after it was lifted. Only 2% of pre-ban established smokers indicated that they did not smoke during or after the ban. CONCLUSIONS: The sales ban did not have the intended objective of encouraging large-scale smoking cessation. This reflects policy failures to provide smokers with appropriate cessation support and to effectively control the illicit market both prior to and during the sales ban.

When Cigarette Sales Suddenly Become Illegal: Evidence From an Online Survey of South African Smokers During COVID-19 Lockdown.

INTRODUCTION: Despite high levels of illicit trade in the tobacco market, the South African government banned the sale of tobacco products in March 2020 as part of its COVID-19 response. The ban lasted five months. We assess how the ban affected the cigarette market for a sample of smokers by comparing the price, consumption, and competitive landscapes before (March), during (May and June), and after (September) the ban. METHODS: We conducted three online surveys of cigarette smokers, asking about smoking behavior before, during, and after the ban. We use descriptive statistics and OLS regressions to estimate the impact of the ban on the South African cigarette market, focusing on the price of cigarettes. RESULTS: Most smokers continued smoking despite the sales ban. During the ban, prices increased by over 240%. Purchases shifted away from the normally dominant brands of the multinational tobacco companies to local/regional producers. The covariates of price changed substantially during the sales ban, the most pronounced being inter-provincial effects. After the ban, the market shifted back to its preban state, with an overall increase in price of 3.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette sales continued despite the sales ban, further entrenching an already large illicit market. Had the government substantially increased the excise tax, rather than banned the sale of tobacco products, it would have achieved a similar public health outcome, received more revenue, and presumably not further entrenched the illicit market. IMPLICATIONS: South Africa temporarily banned the sale of tobacco as part of its COVID-19 response. Despite the ban, the sale of cigarettes did not cease; rather, it caused major disruption to the cigarette market. The ban inadvertently benefited manufacturers who were previously disproportionately involved in illicit activities; these manufacturers increased their market share even after the ban was lifted. The ban may have further entrenched South Africa's already large illicit market. Our results show that there are unintended consequences associated with a temporary ban on the sale of cigarettes.

Cigarette prices and smoking among adults in eight sub-Saharan African countries: evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey.

BACKGROUND: Despite growing concern over tobacco use in sub-Saharan Africa, evidence on the association between cigarette prices and adult smoking behaviour in the region is limited. OBJECTIVES: To provide new evidence on the association between cigarette prices and adult smoking in eight sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: The analysis uses data from 51 270 individuals taken from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, which was conducted in eight African countries during 2012-2018. The relationship between prices and smoking is estimated using probit models for smoking participation and generalised linear models for conditional cigarette demand. RESULTS: Higher prices are significantly associated with lower cigarette demand across African countries. The estimated price elasticity of participation is -0.362 (95% CI -0.547 to -0.177). The price elasticity of conditional cigarette demand is -0.133 (95% CI -0.194 to -0.072) for people who have just started smoking. The estimated total price elasticity of cigarette demand by new adult smokers is -0.495. The absolute value of the conditional demand elasticity becomes smaller by 0.004 units for each additional year that a person smokes. For the average smoker in the sample, with a smoking duration of 18.07 years, the total elasticity estimate is -0.422. CONCLUSIONS: Higher cigarette prices significantly decrease the likelihood of smoking and decrease the intensity of cigarette consumption among African adults. Increases in the excise tax that increase the retail price of cigarettes will play an important role in reducing adult tobacco use on the continent. Governments are encouraged to increase excise taxes to improve public health.

Inequalities in successful tobacco cessation and tobacco cessation attempts: Evidence from eight Sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco consumption is a contributing and modifiable risk factor for non-communicable diseases. In high-income countries, tobacco cessation attempts, and their success, are concentrated among the socio-economically advantaged, resulting in a skewed burden of disease. However, there is a paucity of evidence on the distribution of tobacco cessation in low- and middle-income countries. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to measure and decompose wealth- and education-related inequalities in tobacco cessation in eight Sub-Saharan African countries. METHODOLOGY: The study applies Erreygers' corrected concentration indices and decomposition methods to the most recent Global Adult Tobacco Surveys in Botswana, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda. FINDINGS: We find that across countries, successful tobacco cessation, as well as tobacco cessation attempts, are concentrated among wealthier and better-educated individuals. Differences in socio-economic status, urban or rural residence, and not knowing or believing that tobacco consumption leads to serious illness contributes to these inequalities. CONCLUSION: Governments in our sample of countries can do more to support socio-economically disadvantaged smokers in their efforts to quit smoking, including by making an effort to align each country's smoking cessation strategy with the guidelines outlined in the World Health Organization's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

Cigarette Prices and Smoking Among Youth in 16 African Countries: Evidence From the Global Youth Tobacco Survey.

INTRODUCTION: African countries have among the lowest excise taxes in the world. This paper provides new evidence on the association between cigarette prices and youth smoking in 16 African countries. AIMS AND METHODS: We use Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) cross-country data from approximately 67 500 participants. The relationship between prices and youth smoking in Africa is estimated using probit models for smoking participation and generalized linear models for conditional cigarette demand. Each model is estimated using local-brand and foreign-brand cigarette prices. RESULTS: Higher prices are associated with lower demand across African countries, for both smoking prevalence and the intensity of cigarette consumption by smokers. The estimated price elasticity of participation is -0.70 [95% CI: -1.28 to -0.12] for local-brand cigarettes and -0.71 [95% CI: -0.98 to -0.44] for foreign-brand cigarettes. The price elasticity of conditional cigarette demand is -0.44 [95% CI: -0.76 to -0.12] for local brands and -0.75 [95% CI: -0.96 to -0.53] for foreign brands. The total price elasticity of demand for youth in our sample is -1.14 for local brands and -1.46 for foreign brands. CONCLUSIONS: Higher cigarette prices significantly decrease the likelihood of smoking and decrease the intensity of cigarette consumption among African youths. Increases in the excise tax that increase the retail price of cigarettes will play an important role in reducing youth tobacco use on the continent. Governments are encouraged to increase excise taxes in order to improve public health. IMPLICATIONS: Evidence on the association between cigarette prices and youth smoking in African countries is limited. The Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) was first introduced in 1999. In 2012, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention revised the GYTS questionnaire, which removed some questions and introduced new questions into the survey. To the best of our knowledge, there are no published estimates of the relationship between cigarette prices and demand that have used this more recent individual-level GYTS data for African countries. In conducting this analysis, we add to the limited literature on the association between cigarette prices and youth smoking in Africa.

The temporary ban on tobacco sales in South Africa: lessons for endgame strategies.

BACKGROUND: The endgame literature recommends that, for a tobacco sales ban to be successful, several demand-side preconditions (eg, low prevalence and effective cessation support) should be in place. The South African Government imposed a ban on the sale of all tobacco and vaping products between 27 March and 17 August 2020, as part of the COVID-19 lockdown. OBJECTIVES: To assess how cigarette smokers responded to the sales ban, to evaluate how the ban impacted the cigarette market in South Africa and to use the South African experience to inform endgame planning. METHODS: Regular preban cigarette smokers completed an online questionnaire from 4 to 19 June 2020 (n=23 631), in which they reported on their prelockdown cigarette smoking patterns, quitting behaviour (if relevant) and smoking behaviour during the ban. RESULTS: About 9% of prelockdown smokers in the sample successfully quit smoking. 93% of continuing smokers purchased cigarettes despite the sales ban. The average price of cigarettes increased by 250% relative to prelockdown prices. Most respondents purchased cigarettes through informal channels. CONCLUSIONS: The demand-side preconditions for an effective sales ban were not in place in South Africa, making a sales ban inappropriate. The South African experience suggests that supply-side factors are also important in ensuring the success of a sales ban. These are: (1) the illicit market must be under control before implementing a sales ban; and (2) an effective sales ban needs to be synchronised with a ban on the manufacture, transport and distribution of cigarettes.

Analysis of Article 6 (tax and price measures to reduce the demand for tobacco products) of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the extent to which parties to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) have implemented Article 6 since the convention's entry into force. METHODS: Compliance was measured using nine indicators, derived from the 2016 version of the FCTC's reporting instrument's core questionnaire, and the WHO's MPOWER cigarette affordability measure. Data were collected from WHO country profiles, and the 12 country mission reports by the Impact Assessment Expert Group. RESULTS: The number of parties reporting any type of excise tax increased from 87% (134/154) in 2008 to 92% (160/174) in 2016. Specific excise tax systems were implemented by 36% (63/174) of FCTC ratifying countries in 2016, up from 32% (49/154) in 2008. The proportion of parties with mixed tax structures has increased from 25% (39/154) in 2008 to 32% (56/174) in 2016. The proportion of parties that levy the tax as a fully ad valorem tax has decreased from 29% (45/154) in 2008 to 24% (42/174) in 2016. Cigarettes have become less affordable in 46% (78/168), more affordable in 13% (21/168) and unchanged in terms of affordability in 41% (69/168) of parties between 2008 and 2016. The number of parties that earmark tobacco tax revenues for public health increased from 13 in 2008 to 30 in 2016. Many finance ministries are hesitant to increase the excise tax, mainly due to illicit trade concerns. CONCLUSION: While there has been some improvement in tobacco tax policy over time, parties should adopt stronger tax measures, despite industry opposition and threats about illicit trade. Parties should implement FCTC Article 5.3 and ratify the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products.