Negative relationships between species richness and temporal variability are common but weak in natural systems.

Effects of species diversity on population and community stability (or more precisely, the effects of species richness on temporal variability) have been studied for several decades, but there have been no large-scale tests in natural communities of predictions from theory. We used 91 data sets including plants, fish, small mammals, zooplankton, birds, and insects, to examine the relationship between species richness and temporal variability in populations and communities. Seventy-eight of 91 data sets showed a negative relationship between species richness and population variability; 46 of these relationships were statistically significant. Only five of the 13 positive richness-population variability relationships were statistically significant. Similarly, 51 of 91 data sets showed a negative relationship between species richness and community variability; of these, 26 were statistically significant. Seven of the 40 positive richness-community-variability relationships were statistically significant. We were able to test transferability (i.e., the predictive ability of models for sites that are spatially distinct from sites that were used to build the models) for 69 of 91 data sets; 35 and 31 data sets were transferable at the population and community levels, respectively. Only four were positive at the population level, and two at the community level. We conclude that there is compelling evidence of a negative relationship between species richness and temporal variability for about one-half of the ecological communities we examined. However, species richness explained relatively little of the variability in population or community abundances and resulted in small improvements in predictive ability.

Variation in large-bodied fish-community structure and abundance in relation to water-management regime in a large regulated river.

Variation in life-history traits (growth, condition, mortality and recruitment) and relative abundance of 11 large-bodied fish species was investigated among three water-management regimes (unimpounded, run-of-the-river and winter reservoirs) in the large regulated Ottawa River, Canada. If waterpower management had an effect on fishes, then (1) would be expected community structuring among water-management regimes and (2) species with similar life-history traits should be affected in a similar manner. Large-bodied fish communities were assessed using two different standard index-netting techniques, one using trap nets and the other gillnets. Community structure could be discriminated based on species caught in nets using holographic neural networks (78.8% correct overall classification rate using trap nets and 76.0% using gillnets); therefore, water-management regimes affected community structure in the Ottawa River. Littoral zone benthivores were significantly lower in abundance (P < 0.001) or absent in winter reservoirs, whereas the abundance of planktivores or species that were planktivorous at young ages were significantly greater than in unimpounded river reaches. Growth, condition and mortality did not vary among reach types except smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu were in better condition in winter reservoirs than unimpounded reaches. Lake sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens recruitment was impaired in run-of-the-river reaches, whereas recruitment for other species that spawn in fast water was not affected.

Exploring aboriginal views of health using fuzzy cognitive maps and transitive closure. A case study of the determinants of diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate how fuzzy cognitive maps may be used to extract, present and compare Aboriginal perspectives, using the determinants of diabetes as a case study. METHODS: Participants from the Mohawk Community of Akwesasne and the Miawpukek First Nation in Conne River created fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) (N=3) detailing their views of "the causes of diabetes in their community", through a facilitated, group mapping session. For each FCM, the net causal effect of every determinant (direct or indirect) on diabetes was calculated from its transitive closure. The net causal effects were then compared across the set of FCMs to identify strong, weak and controversial determinants. RESULTS: Comparison of FCMs revealed significant heterogeneity in the perspectives of diabetes. The Akwesasne participants focused heavily on social, traditional and spiritual factors, while Conne River participants placed more importance on direct personal and lifestyle factors. There was, however, a core of strong, validated determinants related primarily to healthy diet and physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: This work demonstrates how FCM may be used to extract and represent different perspectives of complex issues allowing for comparisons among stakeholders or knowledge groups. Comparison of multiple FCM employing the transitive closure may then be used to identify areas of agreement and controversy.

Compensatory dynamics are rare in natural ecological communities.

In population ecology, there has been a fundamental controversy about the relative importance of competition-driven (density-dependent) population regulation vs. abiotic influences such as temperature and precipitation. The same issue arises at the community level; are population sizes driven primarily by changes in the abundances of cooccurring competitors (i.e., compensatory dynamics), or do most species have a common response to environmental factors? Competitive interactions have had a central place in ecological theory, dating back to Gleason, Volterra, Hutchison and MacArthur, and, more recently, Hubbell's influential unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography. If competitive interactions are important in driving year-to-year fluctuations in abundance, then changes in the abundance of one species should generally be accompanied by compensatory changes in the abundances of others. Thus, one necessary consequence of strong compensatory forces is that, on average, species within communities will covary negatively. Here we use measures of community covariance to assess the prevalence of negative covariance in 41 natural communities comprising different taxa at a range of spatial scales. We found that species in natural communities tended to covary positively rather than negatively, the opposite of what would be expected if compensatory dynamics were important. These findings suggest that abiotic factors such as temperature and precipitation are more important than competitive interactions in driving year-to-year fluctuations in species abundance within communities.

Quantitative evidence for global amphibian population declines.

Although there is growing concern that amphibian populations are declining globally, much of the supporting evidence is either anecdotal or derived from short-term studies at small geographical scales. This raises questions not only about the difficulty of detecting temporal trends in populations which are notoriously variable, but also about the validity of inferring global trends from local or regional studies. Here we use data from 936 populations to assess large-scale temporal and spatial variations in amphibian population trends. On a global scale, our results indicate relatively rapid declines from the late 1950s/early 1960s to the late 1960s, followed by a reduced rate of decline to the present. Amphibian population trends during the 1960s were negative in western Europe (including the United Kingdom) and North America, but only the latter populations showed declines from the 1970s to the late 1990s. These results suggest that while large-scale trends show considerable geographical and temporal variability, amphibian populations are in fact declining--and that this decline has been happening for several decades.

Optimization by trees on simple adaptive landscapes.

We evaluate the optimizing ability (rate of adaptation) of trees on simple adaptive landscapes. At points away from a peak, there is a strong negative relationship between rate of adaptation and tree precision P, a relationship that is independent of the size of the tree. P measures the variability among trial solutions generated by the tree: high precision trees have low variability, low precision trees have high variability. Near a peak, the situation reverses, with high precision trees showing higher rates of adaptation than low precision trees; however, for all trees, the absolute rate of adaptation is uniformly low. On multiple-peak landscapes, the probability of crossing an adaptive valley from a lower peak to a higher peak is also negatively correlated with tree precision. These results suggest that under a wide range of conditions, trees with low precision are, on average, the best optimizers.

Phenotypic evolution under gene-culture transmission in structured populations.

I consider a simple model for the evolution of a quantitative character is structured populations when an offspring's phenotype is determined partly by his or her genetic constitution and partly by cultural transmission of the parental phenotype. Analysis of the model indicates that when individual and group selection are in the same direction, phenotypic evolution always proceeds faster under gene-culture vs. purely genetic transmission. When individual and group selection are countervailing, altruistic characters evolve faster under gene-culture transmission when individual selection is weak and migration among groups is limited, with increased individual selection and migration tending to decrease the advantage of gene-culture transmission over purely genetic transmission. Given the prevalence of cultural transmission in higher species, these results suggest that contrary to what is often assumed, group selection may indeed by a potent evolutionary force in the evolution of altruistic characters.

Secondary theorem of natural selection in biocultural populations.

The "Secondary Theorem of Natural Selection," an extension of Fisher's fundamental theorem, states that the rate of change in the mean of an arbitrary character in response to selection is proportional to the additive genetic covariance between the character and fitness. Here I derive an expression for the change in the mean value of a trait subject to both genetic and cultural transmission. I start with the one-locus case under generalized mating and cultural transmission from parents to offspring, then proceed to the two-locus case. My results support previous work on the effects of nongenetic inheritance by showing that (i) cultural transmission introduces a timelag in the population response to selection; (ii) with cultural transmission the effects of selection persist even after selection is relaxed; and (iii) cultural transmission can either enhance or retard phenotypic evolution relative to that obtained under purely genetic transmission.

Fundamental theorem of natural selection under gene-culture transmission.

A generalized fundamental theorem of natural selection is derived for populations incorporating both genetic and cultural transmission. The phenotype is determined by an arbitrary number of multiallelic loci with two-factor epistasis and an arbitrary linkage map, as well as by cultural transmission from the parents. Generations are discrete but partially overlapping, and mating may be nonrandom at either the genotypic or the phenotypic level (or both). I show that cultural transmission has several important implications for the evolution of population fitness, most notably that there is a time lag in the response to selection such that the future evolution depends on the past selection history of the population.

Behavioral evolution and biocultural games: vertical cultural transmission.

We consider an evolutionary game model in which strategies are transmitted culturally from parents to offspring rather than inherited biologically. Our analysis yields two noteworthy results. First, biocultural games show a greater diversity of dynamical behaviors than their purely biological counterparts, including multiple fully polymorphic equilibria. Second, biocultural games on average exhibit greater equilibrium strategy diversity because of the countervailing influences of cultural transmission and natural selection. Therefore, knowledge of a strategy's influence on Darwinian fitness is not sufficient to infer the evolutionary consequences of biocultural games. Further, our results suggest that cultural transmission in the presence of natural selection may be an important mechanism maintaining behavioral diversity in natural populations.