Risk and patterns of secondary complications in surgical inpatients.

IMPORTANCE: Little empirical evidence exists on how a first (index) complication influences the risk of specific subsequent secondary complications. Understanding these risks is important to elucidate clinical pathways of failure to rescue or death after postoperative complication. OBJECTIVE: To understand patterns of secondary complications in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Matched analysis using a cohort of 890 604 patients undergoing elective inpatient surgery from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2011, identified in the NSQIP Participant Use Data File. Five index complications were studied: pneumonia, acute myocardial infarction, deep space surgical site infection, bleeding or transfusion event, and acute renal failure. Each patient with an index complication was matched to a control patient based on propensity for the index event and the number of event-free days. Outcomes were compared using conditional logistic regression. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Rates of 30-day secondary complications and 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Five cohorts were developed, each with 1:1 matching to controls, which were well balanced. Index pneumonia (n = 7947) was associated with increased odds of 30-day reintubation (odds ratio [OR], 17.1; 95% CI, 13.8-21.3; P < .001), ventilatory failure (OR, 15.9; 95% CI, 12.8-19.8; P < .001), sepsis (OR, 7.3; 95% CI, 6.2-8.6; P < .001), and shock (OR, 13.0; 95% CI, 10.4-16.2; P < .001). Index acute myocardial infarction was associated with increased rates of secondary bleeding or transfusion events (OR, 4.3; 95% CI, 3.3-5.8; P < .001), pneumonia (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 2.6-10.2; P < .001), cardiac arrest (OR, 12.0; 95% CI, 7.5-19.2; P < .001), and reintubation (OR, 11.7; 95% CI, 8.4-16.3; P < .001). Deep space surgical site infection was associated with dehiscence (OR, 30.4; 95% CI, 19.9-46.5; P < .001), sepsis (OR, 13.1; 95% CI, 10.2-16.7; P < .001), shock (OR, 10.6; 95% CI, 6.4-17.7; P < .001), kidney injury (OR, 8.6; 95% CI, 3.9-18.8; P < .001), and acute renal failure (OR, 10.5; 95% CI, 3.8-29.3; P < .001). Index acute renal failure was associated with increased odds of cardiac arrest (OR, 25.3; 95% CI, 9.3-68.6; P < .001), reintubation (OR, 11.3; 95% CI, 7.4-17.1; P < .001), ventilatory failure (OR, 12.4; 95% CI, 8.2-18.8; P < .001), bleeding or transfusion events (OR, 11.3; 95% CI, 6.3-20.5; P < .001), and shock (OR, 11.2; 95% CI, 7.2-17.3; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This investigation quantified the effect of index complications on patient risk of specific secondary complications. The defined pathways merit investigation as unique targets for quality improvement and benchmarking.

Complication timing and association with mortality in the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between timing of postoperative complications on mortality is unknown. We investigated the time-variable mortality risks of common surgical complications. METHODS: We identified patients undergoing nonemergent, in-patient surgery in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database during 2005-2011 who experienced any of 13 complications within 2 wk of surgery. "Expected timing" was defined as the median postoperative day of occurrence. Hazard ratios (HRs) for complications earlier or later than expected were calculated using Cox proportional hazards, adjusted for age, procedure, American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA), and functional status. A secondary analysis evaluated the effect of preceding complication burden on the relationship between complication timing and mortality. RESULTS: Among 77,443 patients experiencing complications, significantly higher mortality was observed with early wound infections (superficial HR 1.30, confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.70; deep HR 1.52, CI 1.07-2.16; and organ space HR 1.38, CI 1.11-1.70) despite adjustment for patient and operative factors and complication burden. Early cardiac arrest and unplanned intubation were associated with lower mortality, which persisted after adjustment (HR 0.59, CI 0.51-0.68; HR 0.38, CI 0.33-0.43, respectively). By contrast, late occurrence of acute myocardial infarction, pneumonia, and cerebrovascular accident was associated with significantly greater mortality risk (HR 1.41, CI 1.18-1.69; HR 1.37, CI 1.24-1.52; and HR 1.61, CI 1.31-1.98, respectively), but these associations became nonsignificant after adjustment for complication burden. CONCLUSIONS: Timing of complications plays an important role in mortality. Surgeons and trainees should be aware of these patterns and tailor their clinical care and monitoring practices to account for the implications of complication timing on mortality.

Text mining for adverse drug events: the promise, challenges, and state of the art.

Text mining is the computational process of extracting meaningful information from large amounts of unstructured text. It is emerging as a tool to leverage underutilized data sources that can improve pharmacovigilance, including the objective of adverse drug event (ADE) detection and assessment. This article provides an overview of recent advances in pharmacovigilance driven by the application of text mining, and discusses several data sources-such as biomedical literature, clinical narratives, product labeling, social media, and Web search logs-that are amenable to text mining for pharmacovigilance. Given the state of the art, it appears text mining can be applied to extract useful ADE-related information from multiple textual sources. Nonetheless, further research is required to address remaining technical challenges associated with the text mining methodologies, and to conclusively determine the relative contribution of each textual source to improving pharmacovigilance.

Venous thromboembolism after surgery for inflammatory bowel disease: are there modifiable risk factors? Data from ACS NSQIP.

BACKGROUND: Although it is commonly reported that IBD patients are at increased risk for venous thromboembolic events, little real-world data exist regarding their postoperative incidence and related outcomes in everyday practice. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify the rate of venous thromboembolism and modifiable risk factors within a large cohort of surgical IBD patients. DESIGN: We performed a retrospective review of IBD patients who underwent colorectal procedures. PATIENTS: Patient data were obtained from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2004 to 2010 Participant Use Data Files. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcomes measured were short-term (30-day) postoperative venous thromboembolism (deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism). Clinical variables were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses to identify modifiable risk factors for these events. RESULTS: A total of 10,431 operations were for Crohn's disease (52.1%) or ulcerative colitis (47.9%), and 242 (2.3%) venous thromboembolic events occurred (178 deep vein thromboses, 46 pulmonary embolisms, 18 both) for a combined rate of 1.4% in Crohn's disease and 3.3% in ulcerative colitis. Deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism each occurred at a mean of 10.8 days postoperatively (range for each, 0-30 days). A multivariate model found that bleeding disorder, steroid use, anesthesia time, emergency surgery, hematocrit <37%,malnutrition, and functional status were potentially modifiable risk factors that remained associated (p < 0.05) with venous thromboembolism on regression analysis. Patients with thromboembolism had longer length of stay (18.8 vs 8.9 days), more complications (41% vs 18%), and a higher risk of death (4% vs 0.9%). LIMITATIONS: This study was limited by its retrospective design and its limited generalizability to nonparticipating hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory bowel disease patients are at increased risk for postoperative venous thromboembolism. Reducing preoperative anemia, steroid use, malnutrition, and anesthesia time may also reduce venous thromboembolism in this at-risk population. Risk-reducing, preventative strategies are needed in this at-risk population.