The Wilhelmine E. Key 1999 Invitational lecture. Predicting the evolution of human influenza A.

We studied the evolution of the HA1 domain of the H3 hemagglutinin gene from human influenza virus type A. The phylogeny of these genes showed a single dominant lineage persisting over time. We tested the hypothesis that the progenitors of this single evolutionarily successful lineage were viruses carrying mutations at codons at which prior mutations had helped the virus to avoid human immune surveillance. We found evidence that eighteen hemagglutinin codons appeared to have been under positive selection to change the amino acid they encoded in the past. Retrospective tests show that viral lineages undergoing the greatest number of mutations in the positively selected codons were the progenitors of future H3 lineages in nine of eleven recent influenza seasons. Codons under positive selection were associated with antibody combining sites A or B or the sialic acid receptor binding site. However, not all codons in these sites had predictive value. Monitoring new H3 isolates for additional changes in positively selected codons might help identify the most fit extant viral strains that arise during antigenic drift.

Effects of passage history and sampling bias on phylogenetic reconstruction of human influenza A evolution.

In this paper we determine the extent to which host-mediated mutations and a known sampling bias affect evolutionary studies of human influenza A. Previous phylogenetic reconstruction of influenza A (H3N2) evolution using the hemagglutinin gene revealed an excess of nonsilent substitutions assigned to the terminal branches of the tree. We investigate two hypotheses to explain this observation. The first hypothesis is that the excess reflects mutations that were either not present or were at low frequency in the viral sample isolated from its human host, and that these mutations increased in frequency during passage of the virus in embryonated eggs. A set of 22 codons known to undergo such "host-mediated" mutations showed a significant excess of mutations assigned to branches attaching sequences from egg-cultured (as opposed to cell-cultured) isolates to the tree. Our second hypothesis is that the remaining excess results from sampling bias. Influenza surveillance is purposefully biased toward sequencing antigenically dissimilar strains in an effort to identify new variants that may signal the need to update the vaccine. This bias produces an excess of mutations assigned to terminal branches simply because an isolate with no close relatives is by definition attached to the tree by a relatively long branch. Simulations show that the magnitude of excess mutations we observed in the hemagglutinin tree is consistent with expectations based on our sampling protocol. Sampling bias does not affect inferences about evolution drawn from phylogenetic analyses. However, if possible, the excess caused by host-mediated mutations should be removed from studies of the evolution of influenza viruses as they replicate in their human hosts.

Homology a personal view on some of the problems.

There are many problems relating to defining the terminology used to describe various biological relationships and getting agreement on which definitions are best. Here, I examine 15 terminological problems, all of which are current, and all of which relate to the usage of homology and its associated terms. I suggest a set of definitions that are intended to be totally consistent among themselves and also as consistent as possible with most current usage.

Correlations among amino acid sites in bHLH protein domains: an information theoretic analysis.

An information theoretic approach is used to examine the magnitude and origin of associations among amino acid sites in the basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) family of transcription factors. Entropy and mutual information values are used to summarize the variability and covariability of amino acids comprising the bHLH domain for 242 sequences. When these quantitative measures are integrated with crystal structure data and summarized using helical wheels, they provide important insights into the evolution of three-dimensional structure in these proteins. We show that amino acid sites in the bHLH domain known to pack against each other have very low entropy values, indicating little residue diversity at these contact sites. Noncontact sites, on the other hand, exhibit significantly larger entropy values, as well as statistically significant levels of mutual information or association among sites. High levels of mutual information indicate significant amounts of intercorrelation among amino acid residues at these various sites. Using computer simulations based on a parametric bootstrap procedure, we are able to partition the observed covariation among various amino acid sites into that arising from phylogenetic (common ancestry) and stochastic causes and those resulting from structural and functional constraints. These results show that a significant amount of the observed covariation among amino acid sites is due to structural/functional constraints, over and above the covariation arising from phylogenetic constraints. These quantitative analyses provide a highly integrated evolutionary picture of the multidimensional dynamics of sequence diversity and protein structure.

Predicting the evolution of human influenza A.

Eighteen codons in the HA1 domain of the hemagglutinin genes of human influenza A subtype H3 appear to be under positive selection to change the amino acid they encode. Retrospective tests show that viral lineages undergoing the greatest number of mutations in the positively selected codons were the progenitors of future H3 lineages in 9 of 11 recent influenza seasons. Codons under positive selection were associated with antibody combining site A or B or the sialic acid receptor binding site. However, not all codons in these sites had predictive value. Monitoring new H3 isolates for additional changes in positively selected codons might help identify the most fit extant viral strains that arise during antigenic drift.

Positive selection on the H3 hemagglutinin gene of human influenza virus A.

The hemagglutinin (HA) gene of influenza viruses encodes the major surface antigen against which neutralizing antibodies are produced during infection or vaccination. We examined temporal variation in the HA1 domain of HA genes of human influenza A (H3N2) viruses in order to identify positively selected codons. Positive selection is defined for our purposes as a significant excess of nonsilent over silent nucleotide substitutions. If past mutations at positively selected codons conferred a selective advantage on the virus, then additional changes at these positions may predict which emerging strains will predominate and cause epidemics. We previously reported that a 38% excess of mutations occurred on the tip or terminal branches of the phylogenetic tree of 254 HA genes of influenza A (H3N2) viruses. Possible explanations for this excess include processes other than viral evolution during replication in human hosts. Of particular concern are mutations that occur during adaptation of viruses for growth in embryonated chicken eggs in the laboratory. Because the present study includes 357 HA sequences (a 40% increase), we were able to separately analyze those mutations assigned to internal branches. This allowed us to determine whether mutations on terminal and internal branches exhibit different patterns of selection at the level of individual codons. Additional improvements over our previous analysis include correction for a skew in the distribution of amino acid replacements across codons and analysis of a population of phylogenetic trees rather than a single tree. The latter improvement allowed us to ascertain whether minor variation in tree structure had a significant effect on our estimate of the codons under positive selection. This method also estimates that 75.6% of the nonsilent mutations are deleterious and have been removed by selection prior to sampling. Using the larger data set and the modified methods, we confirmed a large (40%) excess of changes on the terminal branches. We also found an excess of changes on branches leading to egg-grown isolates. Furthermore, 9 of the 18 amino acid codons, identified as being under positive selection to change when we used only mutations assigned to internal branches, were not under positive selection on the terminal branches. Thus, although there is overlap between the selected codons on terminal and internal branches, the codons under positive selection on the terminal branches differ from those on the internal branches. We also observed that there is an excess of positively selected codons associated with the receptor-binding site and with the antibody-combining sites. This association may explain why the positively selected codons are restricted in their distribution along the sequence. Our results suggest that future studies of positive selection should focus on changes assigned to the internal branches, as certain of these changes may have predictive value for identifying future successful epidemic variants.

Phylogenetic analysis of the nef gene reveals a distinctive monophyletic clade in Korean HIV-1 cases.

To study the genetic variation of the HIV-1 strains prevalent in South Korea, we analyzed the nef sequences derived from 46 HIV-1-positive individuals living in various geographic regions in Korea. Phylogenetic analysis revealed four subtypes of HIV-1: A (3 patients), B (41 patients), D (1 patient), and a type that could not be clearly classified to any known subtype (1 patient). Thirty-five of the 41 Korean subtype B isolates formed a distinct monophyletic clade that is not related to any of the international sequences from the Los Alamos Database or GenBank as of June 1997. Indeed, the presence of unique conserved sequences was identified among the Korean isolates in this Korean subtype B group. The variations in the nucleotide sequences of a majority (32 of 35) subtype B samples within the Korean clade were 1.9% to 8.8%, and amino acid sequences varied from 3.9% to 15.5%. These results suggest that HIV-1 strains currently present in South Korea might have originated from a few sources or might be developing through a certain selective pressure. This is the first report on the molecular nature of the HIV-1 infection present in South Korea.

PIP: This study examines the genetic variation of the HIV-1 strains prevalent in South Korea. It analyzes the nef sequences derived from 46 HIV-1 positive individuals living in various geographic regions of Korea. Phylogenetic analysis revealed four subtypes of HIV-1: A (3 patients), B (41 patients), D (1 patient), and a type that could not be clearly classified as any known subtype (1 patient). About 35 of the 41 Korean subtype B isolates formed a distinct monophyletic clade that is not related to any of the international sequences from the Los Alamos Database or GenBank as of June 1997. Indeed, the presence of unique conserved sequences was identified among the Korean isolates in this Korean subtype B group. The variations in the nucleotide sequences of a majority (32 of 35) of the subtype B isolates within the Korean clade were 3.9% to 15.5%. These results suggest that HIV-1 strains present in South Korea might have originated from a few sources or might be developing through a certain selective pressure.

Long term trends in the evolution of H(3) HA1 human influenza type A.

We have studied the HA1 domain of 254 human influenza A(H3N2) virus genes for clues that might help identify characteristics of hemagglutinins (HAs) of circulating strains that are predictive of that strain's epidemic potential. Our preliminary findings include the following. (i) The most parsimonious tree found requires 1,260 substitutions of which 712 are silent and 548 are replacement substitutions. (ii) The HA1 portion of the HA gene is evolving at a rate of 5.7 nucleotide substitutions/year or 5.7 x 10(-3) substitutions/site per year. (iii) The replacement substitutions are distributed randomly across the three positions of the codon when allowance is made for the number of ways each codon can change the encoded amino acid. (iv) The replacement substitutions are not distributed randomly over the branches of the tree, there being 2.2 times more changes per tip branch than for non-tip branches. This result is independent of how the virus was amplified (egg grown or kidney cell grown) prior to sequencing or if sequencing was carried out directly on the original clinical specimen by PCR. (v) These excess changes on the tip branches are probably the result of a bias in the choice of strains to sequence and the detection of deleterious mutations that had not yet been removed by negative selection. (vi) There are six hypervariable codons accumulating replacement substitutions at an average rate that is 7.2 times that of the other varied codons. (vii) The number of variable codons in the trunk branches (the winners of the competitive race against the immune system) is 47 +/- 5, significantly fewer than in the twigs (90 +/- 7), which in turn is significantly fewer variable codons than in tip branches (175 +/- 8). (viii) A minimum of one of every 12 branches has nodes at opposite ends representing viruses that reside on different continents. This is, however, no more than would be expected if one were to randomly reassign the continent of origin of the isolates. (ix) Of 99 codons with at least four mutations, 31 have ratios of non-silent to silent changes with probabilities less than 0.05 of occurring by chance, and 14 of those have probabilities <0.005. These observations strongly support positive Darwinian selection. We suggest that the small number of variable positions along the successful trunk lineage, together with knowledge of the codons that have shown positive selection, may provide clues that permit an improved prediction of which strains will cause epidemics and therefore should be used for vaccine production.

A natural classification of the basic helix-loop-helix class of transcription factors.

A natural (evolutionary) classification is provided for 242 basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) motif-containing proteins. Phylogenetic analyses of amino acid sequences describe the patterns of evolutionary change within the motif and delimit evolutionary lineages. These evolutionary lineages represent well known functional groups of proteins and can be further arranged into five groups based on binding to DNA at the hexanucleotide E-box, the amino acid patterns in other components of the motif, and the presence/absence of a leucine zipper. The hypothesized ancestral amino acid sequence for the bHLH transcription factor family is given together with the ancestral sequences of the subgroups. It is suggested that bHLH proteins containing a leucine zipper are not a natural, monophyletic group.

Networks and viral evolution.

In studying population data, it is common to have many equally possible parsimonious trees. This has caused representational problems, all of which have been addressed by using various kinds of consensus trees. Recognizing that the incubus may in fact be the constraint of having to have a tree representation, several authors have investigated networks as a better form. In this paper, a beginning to a new procedure for making most parsimonious networks is developed. The algorithm, as developed so far, is presented. Its applicability to several viral evolutionary problems is illustrated and the nature of the problems needing yet to be addressed are discussed.

Constraints on protein evolution and the age of the eubacteria/eukaryote split.

NASA: This article discusses research done by Doolittle et al. to determine the evolutionary distance between eubacteria and eukaryotes. Several equations for estimating evolutionary distances and divergence times are considered. Molecular clock calculations and their effects on these estimates are discussed. The authors conclude that their research supports the range of dates for the cenancestor of modern eubacteria, archaebacteria, and eukaryotes estimated by Doolittle et al.^ieng

Ecological factors rather than temporal factors dominate the evolution of vesicular stomatitis virus.

Vesicular stomatitis New Jersey virus (VSV-NJ) is a rhabdovirus that causes economically important disease in cattle and other domestic animals in endemic areas from southeastern United States to northern South America. Its negatively stranded RNA genome is capable of undergoing rapid evolution, which allows phylogenetic analysis and molecular epidemiology studies to be performed. Previous epidemiological studies in Costa Rica showed the existence of at least two distinct ecological zones of high VSV-NJ activity, one located in the highlands (premontane tropical moist forest) and the other in the lowlands (tropical dry forest). We wanted to test the hypothesis that the viruses circulating in these ecological zones were genetically distinct. For this purpose, we sequenced the hypervariable region of the phosphoprotein gene for 50 VSV-NJ isolates from these areas. Phylogenetic analysis showed that viruses from each ecological zone had distinct genotypes. These genotypes were maintained in each area for periods of up to 8 years. This evolutionary pattern of VSV-NJ suggests an adaptation to ecological factors that could exert selective pressure on the virus. As previous data indicated an absence of virus adaptation to factors related to the bovine host (including immunological pressure), it appears that VSV genetic divergence represents positive selection to adapt to specific vectors and/or reservoirs at each ecological zone.

The variety of human virus evolution.

There have been many wise suggestions of ways that evolution may occur but those ways seem often hard to support with good examples. Viruses have proven to be replete with some of these items. This paper reviews work that shows: (1) very fast rates of evolution; (2) positive Darwinian selection with the selective pressure specifically identified; (3) viral reassortment; (4) grossly unequal rates of evolution depending upon the host of the virus; (5) accurate dating of the cenancestor, the most recent common ancestor; (6) correspondence between the evolutionary tree and the geography of the place of isolation; (7) punctuated molecular evolution; and (8) network evolution.

European swine virus as a possible source for the next influenza pandemic?

According to phylogenetic data, about 100 years ago an avian influenza virus passed the species barrier (possibly first) to pigs and (possibly from there) to humans. In 1979 an avian influenza A virus (as a whole, without reassortment) again entered the pig population in northern Europe, forming a stable lineage. Here it is shown that the early North European swine viruses exhibit higher than normal evolutionary rates and are highly variable with respect to plaque morphology and neutralizability by monoclonal antibodies. Our results are consistent with the idea that, in order to pass the species barrier, an influenza A virus needs a mutator mutation to provide an additional number of variants, from which the new host might select the best fitting ones. A mutator mutation could be of advantage under such stress conditions and might enable a virus to pass the species barrier as a whole even twice, as it seems to have happened about 100 years ago. This stressful situation should be over for the recent swine lineage, since the viruses seem to be adapted already to the new host in that the most recent isolates--at least in northern Germany--are genetically stable and seem to have lost the putative mutator mutation again.

Myc and Max: molecular evolution of a family of proto-oncogene products and their dimerization partner.

The myc gene family encodes a group of transcription factors that regulate cell proliferation and differentiation. These genes are widely studied because of their importance as proto-oncogenes. Phylogenetic analyses are described here for 45 Myc protein sequences representing c-, N-, L-, S-, and B-myc genes. A gene duplication early in vertebrate evolution produced the c-myc lineage and another lineage that later gave rise to the N- and L-myc lineages by another gene duplication. Evolutionary divergence in the myc gene family corresponds closely to the known branching order of the major vertebrate groups. The patterns of sequence evolution are described for five separate highly conserved regions, and these analyses show that differential rates of sequence divergence (= mosaic evolution) have occurred among conserved motifs. Further, the closely related dimerization partner protein Max exhibits significantly less sequence variability than Myc. It is suggested that the reduced variability in max stems from natural selection acting to preserve dimerization capability with products of myc and related genes.

Uses for evolutionary trees.

The general impression of molecular evolution is often that one sequences a gene from a number of organisms and infers the evolutionary relations of the organisms. Indeed, if the sequences turn out to be orthologous and the data robust, one will get a phylogeny (tree) depicting those historical relations. But what one really obtains is a gene tree (I shall henceforth assume that the data are robust; that is another problem) and the biological messages implicit in that tree can be quite various. This article lists a number of those messages that one may have or may wish to look for.