Health care utilization and the associated costs attributable to cardiovascular disease in Ireland: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality and disability globally. We examined healthcare service utilization and costs attributable to CVD in Ireland in the period before the introduction of a major healthcare reform in 2016. METHODS: Secondary analysis of data from 8 113 participants of the first wave of The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing. CVD was defined as having a self-reported doctor's diagnosis of myocardial infarction, angina, heart failure, stroke, atrial fibrillation or transient ischaemic attack. Participants self-reported the utilization of healthcare services in the year preceding the interview. Negative binomial regression with average marginal effects (AME) was used to estimate the incremental number of general practitioner (GP) and outpatient department (OPD) visits, accident and emergency department attendances and hospitalisations in population with CVD relative to population without CVD. We calculated the corresponding costs at individual and population levels, by gender and age groups. RESULTS: The prevalence of CVD was 18.2% (95% CI: 17.3, 19.0) Participants with CVD reported higher utilization of all healthcare services. In adjusted models, having CVD was associated with incremental 1.19 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.39) GP and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.65, 0.93) OPD visits. There were twice as many incremental hospitalisations in males with CVD compared to females with CVD (AME (95% CI): 0.20 (0.16, 0.23) vs 0.10 (0.07, 0.14)). The incremental cost of healthcare service use in population with CVD was an estimated €352.2 million (95% CI: €272.8, €431.7), 93% of which was due to use of secondary care services. CONCLUSION: We identified substantially increased use of healthcare services attributable to CVD in Ireland. Continued efforts aimed at CVD primary prevention and management are required.

Trends in national pharmaceutical expenditure on diabetes in Ireland 2011-2015: a repeated cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To explore trends in pharmaceutical expenditure on diabetes between 2011 and 2015, describing trends in expenditure on blood glucose-lowering medications and estimating the effect of cost-containment measures implemented during this time. DESIGN: Repeated cross-sectional study of national pharmacy claims data in Ireland. PARTICIPANTS: Patients' dispensed items used in the treatment or management of diabetes. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Total expenditure associated with diabetes was calculated by extracting data on all diabetes-related items dispensed to eligible patients. Costs were categorised into two groups. Diabetes-specific items include items used directly in diabetes treatment (WHO-Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC): A10, V07, V04) and diabetes-related include all other condition-related items (WHO-ATC: B01, C, H04, N03, N06). The impacts of two specific cost-containment measures, co-payments and reference pricing, were assessed using segmented linear regression analyses of interrupted time-series. RESULTS: Total expenditure varied over the study period, peaking at €216 994 441 in 2012. Expenditure on diabetes-specific items increased steadily by 18% reaching €153 621 477 in 2015, with blood glucose-lowering medications accounting for 73% of this increase. During the same period, expenditure on diabetes-related items decreased by 32% to €50 835 856. The introduction of reference pricing for atorvastatin in November 2013 resulted in immediate costs savings of €2.4 million per yearly quarter (level-change p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The increasing expenditure on blood glucose-lowering medications negates the effect of recent cost-containment measures, presenting a significant challenge for the provision of diabetes care. Innovative policies are required to ensure high-quality diabetes care can be provided at an equitable, affordable and sustainable rate.

Impact of population distribution shifts in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption on type II diabetes incidence in Ireland.

PURPOSE: We simulate population shifts in the distribution of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption and address previous methodological limitations to provide valid and reliable estimates of the potential impact of public health interventions on type II diabetes incidence in Ireland. METHODS: A comparative risk assessment was conducted, using distribution shift calculations to estimate potential impact fractions (PIFs) for percentage reductions in SSB consumption. Data from the Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition was analyzed. Individual risk of developing type II diabetes was estimated using a risk prediction algorithm. PIFs were calculated using risk estimates, changes in SSB consumption, and an appropriately specified relative risk. The impact of a 20% levy on SSBs was explored. Monte-Carlo simulation with 150,000 iterations estimated uncertainty intervals (UIs). PIFs were applied to 2016 census data, estimating the absolute incident cases that may potentially be avoided through reduced SSB consumption. RESULTS: Of the 7272 Survey of Lifestyle, Attitudes and Nutrition participants, 53.3% consumed SSBs. The 10-year rate of type II diabetes was estimated at 4.3% (95% confidence interval: 4.2%, 4.4%). Simulating a 100% reduction in SSB consumption, the population attributable fraction was 1.8% (95%UI: 0.1%, 3.3%). Population shifts in consumption after a 20% levy results in a PIF of 0.37% (95%UI: 0.02%, 0.7%). We estimate 135,850 incident type II diabetes cases over a 10-year period. Of these, 2446 (95% UI: 136, 4483) cases may be attributable to SSB consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Overcoming previous methodological limitations, unbiased estimates demonstrate that a population shift in SSB consumption can potentially play a role in the primary prevention of type II diabetes.

Educational intervention to optimise serum immunoglobulin test use in Irish primary care: an interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Implementation science experts recommend that theory-based strategies, developed in collaboration with healthcare professionals, have greater chance of success. AIM: This study evaluated the impact of a theory-based strategy for optimising the use of serum immunoglobulin testing in primary care. DESIGN AND SETTING: An interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis in the Cork-Kerry region, Ireland. An intervention was devised comprising a guideline and educational messages-based strategy targeting previously identified GP concerns relevant to testing for serum immunoglobulins. METHOD: Interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the intervention, using routine laboratory data from January 2012 to October 2016. Data were organised into fortnightly segments (96 time points pre-intervention and 26 post-intervention) and analysed using incidence rate ratios with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: In the most parsimonious model, the change in trend before and after the introduction of the intervention was statistically significant. In the 1-year period following the implementation of the strategy, test orders were falling at a rate of 0.42% per fortnight (P<0.001), with an absolute reduction of 0.59% per fortnight, corresponding to a reduction of 14.5% over the 12-month study period. CONCLUSION: The authors' tailored guideline combined with educational messages reduced serum immunoglobulin test ordering in primary care over a 1-year period. Given the rarity of the conditions for which the test is utilised and the fact that the researchers had only population-level data, further investigation is required to examine the clinical implications of this change in test-ordering patterns.

An interrupted time-series analysis of the impact of emergency department reconfiguration on regional emergency department trolley numbers in Ireland from 2005 to 2015.

OBJECTIVES: To understand the impact of emergency department (ED) reconfiguration on the number of patients waiting for hospital beds on trolleys in the remaining EDs in four geographical regions in Ireland using time-series analysis. SETTING: EDs in four Irish regions; the West, North-East, South and Mid-West from 2005 to 2015. PARTICIPANTS: All patients counted as waiting on trolleys in an ED for a hospital bed in the study hospitals from 2005 to 2015. INTERVENTION: The system intervention was the reconfiguration of ED services, as determined by the Department of Health and Health Service Executive. The timing of these interventions varied depending on the hospital and region in question. RESULTS: Three of the four regions studied experienced a significant change in ED trolley numbers in the 12-month post-ED reconfiguration. The trend ratio before and after the intervention for these regions was as follows: North-East incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.85 (95% CI 2.04 to 3.99, p<0.001), South IRR 0.68 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.89, p=0.006) and the Mid-West IRR 0.03 (95% 1.03 to 2.03, p=0.03). Two of these regions, the South and the Mid-West, displayed a convergence between the observed and expected trolley numbers in the 12-month post-reconfiguration. The North-East showed a much steeper increase, one that extended beyond the 12-month period post-ED reconfiguration. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that the impacts of ED reconfiguration on regional level ED trolley trends were either non-significant or caused a short-term shock which converged on the pre-reconfiguration trend over the following 12 months. However, the North-East is identified as an exception due to increased pressures in one regional hospital, which caused a change in trend beyond the 12-month post reconfiguration.

Efficacy of observational hand hygiene audit with targeted feedback on doctors' hand hygiene compliance: A retrospective time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare-associated infection compromises patient safety. Compliance with hand hygiene (HH) guidelines has been shown to be an effective method of reducing infection; however, it remains suboptimal and poorer among doctors compared to other healthcare workers. The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between an individualised observational hand hygiene audit (OHHA) and feedback intervention with observed HH compliance. METHODS: We used a retrospective interrupted time series design using OHHA data from a five-year period, 2011-2015. OHHA indicated poorer HH compliance among doctors than other healthcare workers in a 345-bed acute private hospital. An increase in orthopaedic surgical site infection prompted additional auditing of the orthopaedic unit further identifying substandard HH compliance among orthopaedic surgeons. In addition to ongoing HH interventions, an individualised hand hygiene audit and feedback intervention focusing on consultant orthopaedic surgeons was implemented. Observed HH compliance improved. The intervention was then extended to include all consultant doctors at the study site. Audit was implemented by trained clinical nurse managers during clinical rounds. Written audit feedback was provided by the infection prevention and control team. RESULTS: HH compliance increased significantly among both orthopaedic surgeons and other consultant doctors, P < 0.05. CONCLUSION: An individualised audit and feedback intervention was effective in improving compliance. Incorporation of OHHA with individualised feedback into routine daily practice needs to be considered as a quality improvement opportunity. This study has the potential to inform other audit and feedback interventions to maximise effectiveness and ensure implementation.

Group-based trajectory modelling for BMI trajectories in childhood: A systematic review.

Childhood obesity is an important public health issue. We aimed to systematically review studies that used group-based trajectory modelling approaches to investigate body mass index (BMI) trajectories in early childhood, explore associated determinants, and the association with body composition outcomes. Five databases were searched systematically for studies using group-based trajectory modelling approaches to track BMI trajectories from birth. Fourteen studies using latent class growth analysis or growth mixture modelling to track BMI trajectories were identified. Three or four trajectories were identified in most studies. High maternal pre-pregnancy BMI was the most frequently identified risk factor for membership of a rapid gain trajectory. Significant associations between rapid weight gain and stable high trajectories and body measures at follow-up were identified by several studies. Relatively similar trajectories were identified across studies. Trajectories characterized by rapid weight gain were associated with several predictors, as well as body measures at follow-up, however not with great consistency. Similar associations with body measure outcomes were found for stable high and rapid gain trajectories, suggesting that long-term outcomes do not differ greatly between children with consistently high BMI and children with rapid increases in BMI. As the shape and timing of the trajectories differed between studies, it is difficult to draw conclusions.

Long-Term Follow-up of Patients Treated at a Single Institution Using a Passively Scattered Proton Beam; Observations Around the Occurrence of Second Malignancies.

PURPOSE: To investigate the occurrence of second malignancies resulting from the secondary radiation from a passively scattered proton beam. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A cohort of patients with long-term follow-up was defined. All were treated at the same institution with the same proton delivery system, consisting of a 200 MeV fixed, horizontal, passively scattered beam combined with a robotic chair. This setup allows for stereotactic positioning and permits fractionated treatments. The majority of patients underwent cranial or intracranial stereotactic radiation therapy. Patients with previous photon therapy or a follow-up of 24 months or less were excluded. For out-of-field secondary malignancies (SMs), the observed incidence in the study population was compared to the risk of developing a malignancy in the general population, taking patient sex into account. RESULTS: From September 1993 to May 2016, a total of 524 patients received proton beam therapy, and 322 patients could be evaluated for this study (164 female and 158 male). Age ranged from 2 to 85 years, with a median of 40 years. Follow-up ranged from 25 to 276 months, with a median of 150 months (12.5 years). During the study observation period, 7 patients had out-of-field new malignant disease. Three female patients developed a malignancy, compared with an expected incidence of 4.09 (standardized incidence ratio, 0.73 [95% confidence interval, 0.24-2.27]); 4 male patients developed a malignancy, versus an expected incidence of 3.99 (standardized incidence ratio, 1.00 [95% confidence interval, 0.38-2.67]). New intracranial disease developed in 9 patients: 8 meningiomas and 1 carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: For out-of-field SMs, no increased risk of developing a variety of malignancies was observed. For in-field SMs, only 1 malignant histology was noted 15 years after the original proton therapy. No SM was observed in children and young adults.

Drivers of potentially avoidable emergency admissions in Ireland: an ecological analysis.

BACKGROUND: Many emergency admissions are deemed to be potentially avoidable in a well-performing health system. OBJECTIVE: To measure the impact of population and health system factors on county-level variation in potentially avoidable emergency admissions in Ireland over the period 2014-2016. METHODS: Admissions data were used to calculate 2014-2016 age-adjusted emergency admission rates for selected conditions by county of residence. Negative binomial regression was used to identify which a priori factors were significantly associated with emergency admissions for these conditions and whether these factors were also associated with total/other emergency admissions. Standardised incidence rate ratios (IRRs) associated with a 1 SD change in risk factors were reported. RESULTS: Nationally, potentially avoidable emergency admissions for the period 2014-2016 (266 395) accounted for 22% of all emergency admissions. Of the population factors, a 1 SD change in the county-level unemployment rate was associated with a 24% higher rate of potentially avoidable emergency admissions (IRR: 1.24; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.41). Significant health system factors included emergency admissions with length of stay equal to 1 day (IRR: 1.20; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.30) and private health insurance coverage (IRR: 0.92; 95% CI 0.89 to 0.96). The full model accounted for 50% of unexplained variation in potentially avoidable emergency admissions in each county. Similar results were found across total/other emergency admissions. CONCLUSION: The results suggest potentially avoidable emergency admissions and total/other emergency admissions are primarily driven by socioeconomic conditions, hospital admission policy and private health insurance coverage. The distinction between potentially avoidable and all other emergency admissions may not be as useful as previously believed when attempting to identify the causes of regional variation in emergency admission rates.

Health-Related Quality of Life in Adolescents and Adults With Cystic Fibrosis: Physical and Mental Health Predictors.

BACKGROUND: People with cystic fibrosis face substantial physical, psychological, and social challenges as they move into adolescence and adulthood, which are likely to impact on their health-related quality of life. This study sought to examine the relative importance of physical and mental health variables associated with health-related quality of life in this group. METHODS: Adults and adolescents (N = 174; ≥14 y old) from across 11 adult or pediatric cystic fibrosis clinics in the Republic of Ireland, completed a background questionnaire that contained self-reported physical health variables, pulmonary function (ie, FEV1%) and body mass index. Questionnaire packs also contained the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire-Revised, which has been specifically designed to assess health-related quality of life in patients with cystic fibrosis. RESULTS: HADS depression and/or anxiety scores were negatively associated with 11 of the 12 Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire-Revised domain scores. FEV1% was positively associated with 8 domains when controlling for HADS anxiety but only 4 domains when controlling for HADS depression. HADS anxiety and depression scores demonstrated larger effect sizes and explained a greater proportion of the variance than pulmonary function in 8 of the 12 Cystic Fibrosis Questionnaire-Revised domain scores. CONCLUSIONS: Mental health variables, depression and anxiety, were strongly associated with health-related quality of life in subjects with cystic fibrosis and demonstrated greater effect sizes and explained a higher proportion of the variance overall than the physical health indicators, FEV1% and body mass index, which highlighted the importance of screening for, and treating, depression and anxiety symptoms.

Case fatality ratios for serious emergency conditions in the Republic of Ireland: a longitudinal investigation of trends over the period 2002-2014 using joinpoint analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the past decade, the Republic of Ireland has undertaken significant reconfiguration programmes to improve emergency services. During this time the public healthcare system experienced a large real decrease in resources. This study assesses national and regional population outcomes over the period 2002-2014, and whether changes coincide with system reconfiguration and the financial restrictions imposed by the 2008 recession. METHODS: Case fatality ratios (CFRs) were constructed for emergency conditions for 2002-2014. Total emergency conditions and individual condition trends were analysed nationally using joinpoint analysis. National results informed the investigation of trends at a regional and county level using an inverse standard error weighted generalised linear model with a log link to construct funnel plots. County-level CFRs were compared for the first and last 3 years of the period to further investigate the changes to county results over the 13 year period, specifically in comparison to the national-level CFR. RESULTS: Nationally, there was an annual fall in CFRs (2.1%). The decline was faster from 2002 to 2007 (annual percentage change = - 3.4; 95% CI-4.4, - 2.4), compared to 2007-2014 (annual percentage change = - 1.2; 95% CI -1.9, - 0.5). The South-East had a lower rate of decrease and the West had a higher rate. Cross sectional analysis of two periods (2002-2004 and 2012-2014) showed high consistency in the counties performance relative to the national CFR in both periods. CONCLUSION: Change in the national trend coincided with the onset of economic stress on the public health system. Attributing the decline in CFR improvement to economic factors is weakened by the uneven nature of the trend change. No distinct pattern of change was identified among regions which underwent substantial reconfiguration of emergency services.

Predicted 10-year risk of cardiovascular mortality in the 40 to 69 year old general population without cardiovascular diseases in Germany.

AIMS: To estimate the 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the 40 to 69 year old general population in Germany stratified by sex and to analyze differences between socio-economic status (SES), region and community size in individuals without CVD. The analysis is based on the newly recalibrated SCORE Deutschland risk charts and considered other comorbidities for the classification of the high CVD risk group according to the guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 3,498 participants (40-69 years) from the German Health Examination Survey for Adults 2008-2011 (DEGS1) without a history of CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke) we estimated the proportion with a low (SCORE <1%), moderate (SCORE 1-<5%) and high 10-year CVD mortality risk (SCORE ≥5% or diabetes, renal insufficiency, SBP/DPB ≥180/110 mmHg or cholesterol >8 mmol/l). The prevalence of low, moderate and high risk was 42.8%, 38.5% and 18.8% in men and 73.7%, 18.1% and 8.2% in women. The prevalence of high risk was significantly lower in women with a high compared to a low SES (3.3% vs. 11.2%) and in communities with ≥100.000 inhabitants compared to <20.000 inhabitants (5.4% vs.10.9%). There were no significant associations between predicted CVD mortality risk and SES or community size in men and regions in men and women. Among the high risk group, 58.2% of men and 9.8% of women had SCORE ≥5%, leaving the majority of women (60.1%) classified as high risks due to diabetes and SCORE <5%. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest the persistence of socioeconomic disparities in predicted cardiovascular mortality in women and support the need of large-scale prevention efforts beyond individual lifestyle modification or treatment. Furthermore, the importance of additional comorbidities for the high risk group classification is highlighted.

Online versus paper-based screening for depression and anxiety in adults with cystic fibrosis in Ireland: a cross-sectional exploratory study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare online and paper-based screening for depression and anxiety in adults with cystic fibrosis (CF). DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional study in CF clinics in Ireland and through the Cystic Fibrosis Ireland online community. PARTICIPANTS: 160 adult patients aged 18 or above were recruited. Of these, 147 were included in the analysis; 83 online and 64 paper-based. The remaining 13 were excluded because of incomplete data. MEASURES: Depression and anxiety were measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Data on pulmonary function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s %) and body mass index were self-reported based on clinical assessments. Sociodemographic data were collected. RESULTS: Compared with the paper-based participants, the online participants were more likely to be female (61.7% vs 48.4%), older (mean 32.2 vs 28.2 years) and were more likely to be married (32.5% vs 15.6%), living with their spouse or partner (42.5% vs 22.6%) and working either full time (33.7% vs 15.9%) or part time (30.1%vs 17.5%). The prevalence rates of elevated anxiety and depression were not significantly different (P=0.71 and P=0.56). HADS anxiety and depression scores were not statistically different between online (P=0.83) and paper-based (P=0.92) participants based on Mann-Whitney U test. A significant negative correlation was found between depression and pulmonary function (r=-0.39, P=0.01) and anxiety and pulmonary function (r=-0.36, P=0.02). Based on Cronbach's alpha, there were no statistically significant differences between the online and paper-based participants on the internal consistency of the HADS anxiety (P=0.073) and depression (P=0.378) scales. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that online and paper-based screening for depression and anxiety in adult patients with CF yield comparable findings on prevalence rates and scores, associations with health and internal consistency of subscales. This study highlights that online screening offers an alternative method to paper-based screening. Further research with a larger sample and assessment of measurement equivalence between online and paper based screening is needed to confirm our results.

Physician and practice characteristics associated with immunoglobulin test ordering.

Background: Primary care test requests for serum immunoglobulins are rising rapidly, with concerns that many requests may be unnecessary. Evidence suggests some characteristics of general practitioners (GPs) and practices are associated with higher test ordering. Objective: To identify the physician and practice characteristics associated with immunoglobulin test ordering. Methods: Retrospective, cross-sectional study using routine laboratory data on primary care serum immunoglobulin requests. Data were linked with GP patient list size data. The primary outcome measure was the count of test requests per GP. Predictor variables were physician gender, years experience, practice region and type (number of GPs), GP patient list size and composition. Mixed-effects multilevel regression models were used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations between physician and practice characteristics and GP requesting. Sensitivity analysis was performed by limiting the model to the more than 70 years age category. Results: In total, 5990 immunoglobulin tests were ordered by 481 GPs in the South of Ireland during 2013. The number of tests ordered by individual GPs varied from one to 377. In the final fully adjusted Poisson regression analysis, female gender (IRR: 1.81; 95% CI: 1.45-2.26) and less experience (IRR: 2.27; 95% CI: 1.47-3.51) were associated with higher requesting (P < 0.001). None of the practice factors were associated with test ordering. Sensitivity analysis on the 70 years or more age category found similar results. Conclusion: Further research is required to explore the potential reasons for higher requesting among GPs with fewer years of experience and also among female GPs.

Physical Activity, Sedentary Behavior and the Risk of Overweight and Obesity in School-Aged Children.

PURPOSE: Globally, public health policies are targeting modifiable lifestyle behaviors. We explore the independent association of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behavior on the risk of childhood overweight/obesity. METHOD: A cross-sectional survey of children aged 8-11 years (N = 826). Objective body mass index was used to classify children as normal weight or overweight/obese. Children wore wrist-worn Geneactiv accelerometers for 7-days and thresholds were applied to categorize MVPA and sedentary time. Screen time (ST) was parent reported. Poisson regression examined the independent association of (1) MVPA (2), objective sedentary time and (3) ST on the risk of overweight/obesity. RESULTS: Overall, 23.7% (95% CI, 20.8-26.6%) of children were overweight/obese. On average, children spent 10.8% of waking time at MVPA and 61.3% sedentary. One-fifth (22.1%, 95% CI, 19.3-25.0%) of children achieved MVPA recommendations (≥ 60 min each day) and 17.5% (95% CI, 14.9-20.1%) met ST recommendations (<2 hr per day). Time spent at MVPA was inversely associated with the risk of overweight/obese independent of total sedentary time. Total time spent sedentary was not associated with overweight/obese independent of MVPA. ST was associated with an increased risk of overweight/obese independent of physical activity. CONCLUSION: Few schoolchildren met physical activity and screen time recommendations suggesting population based measures are needed.

Unmet need for bariatric surgery.

INTRODUCTION: With the rising prevalence of severe obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D), bariatric surgery offers a clinical and cost-effective treatment for carefully selected patients. Despite this, the provision of surgical services varies significantly between countries. OBJECTIVE: To inform health service planning by estimating the number of people who would potentially benefit from bariatric surgery. SETTING: Nationally representative sample of community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: We applied two separate evidence-based criteria sets for eligibility for bariatric surgery. For the first set of criteria, we considered those with body mass index≥40 kg/m2 or≥35 kg/m2 and one or more of the following: T2D, hypertension, previous myocardial infarction, or sleep apnea. For the second set of criteria, we considered patients with T2D and body mass index≥35 kg/m2, with one or more of the following: previous myocardial infarction, elevated urine albumin-creatinine ratio, retinopathy, neuropathy, or peripheral vascular disease. Prevalence estimates were applied to census figures for 2011, estimating absolute numbers meeting the criteria. RESULTS: Among adults aged≥50 years, 7.97% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.23, 8.78), representing 92,573 people (95% CI: 83,978, 101,981), met criteria one and 0.97% (95% CI: 0.73, 1.28), representing 11,231 people (95% CI: 8471, 14,890), met criteria two. With fewer than 1/100,000 population publicly funded surgeries taking place annually, current service provision meets much less than 0.1% of the need. CONCLUSIONS: While many adults who fulfill the eligibility criteria for bariatric surgery may not want or require it, the current level of need for bariatric surgical services is not being met. A strategy to develop and expand the provision of bariatric care is urgently needed.

Exploring diurnal variation using piecewise linear splines: an example using blood pressure.

BACKGROUND: There are many examples of physiological processes that follow a circadian cycle and researchers are interested in alternative methods to illustrate and quantify this diurnal variation. Circadian blood pressure (BP) deserves additional attention given uncertainty relating to the prognostic significance of BP variability in relation to cardiovascular disease. However, the majority of studies exploring variability in ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) collapse the data into single readings ignoring the temporal nature of the data. Advanced statistical techniques are required to explore complete variation over 24 h. METHODS: We use piecewise linear splines in a mixed-effects model with a constraint to ensure periodicity as a novel application for modelling daily blood pressure. Data from the Mitchelstown Study, a cross-sectional study of Irish adults aged 47-73 years (n = 2047) was utilized. A subsample (1207) underwent 24-h ABPM. We compared patterns between those with and without evidence of subclinical target organ damage (microalbuminuria). RESULTS: We were able to quantify the steepest rise and fall in SBP, which occurred just after waking (2.23 mmHg/30 min) and immediately after falling asleep (-1.93 mmHg/30 min) respectively. The variation about an individual's trajectory over 24 h was 12.3 mmHg (standard deviation). On average those with microalbuminuria were found to have significantly higher SBP (7.6 mmHg, 95% CI 5.0-10.1) after adjustment for age, sex and BMI. Including an interaction term between each linear spline and microalbuminuria did not improve model fit. CONCLUSION: We have introduced a practical method for the analysis of ABPM where we can determine the rate of increase or decrease for different periods of the day. This may be particularly useful in examining chronotherapy effects of antihypertensive medication. It offers new measures of short-term BP variability as we can quantify the variation about an individual's trajectory but also allows examination of the variation in slopes between individuals (random-effects).

levels and sociodemographic correlates of accelerometer-based physical activity in Irish children: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to explore levels and sociodemographic correlates of physical activity (PA) over 1 week using accelerometer data. METHODS: Accelerometer data was collected over 1 week from 1075 8-11-year-old children in the cross-sectional Cork Children's Lifestyle Study. Threshold values were used to categorise activity intensity as sedentary, light, moderate or vigorous. Questionnaires collected data on demographic factors. Smoothed curves were used to display minute by minute variations. Binomial regression was used to identify factors correlated with the probability of meeting WHO 60 min moderate to vigorous PA guidelines. RESULTS: Overall, 830 children (mean (SD) age: 9.9(0.7) years, 56.3% boys) were included. From the binomial multiple regression analysis, boys were found more likely to meet guidelines (probability ratio 1.17, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.28) than girls. Older children were less likely to meet guidelines than younger children (probability ratio 0.91, CI 0.87 to 0.95). Normal weight children were more likely than overweight and obese children to meet guidelines (probability ratio 1.25, CI 1.16 to 1.34). Children in urban areas were more likely to meet guidelines than those in rural areas (probability ratio 1.19, CI 1.07 to 1.33). Longer daylight length days were associated with greater probability of meeting guidelines compared to shorter daylight length days. CONCLUSIONS: PA levels differed by individual factors including age, gender and weight status as well as by environmental factors including residence and daylight length. Less than one-quarter of children (26.8% boys, 16.2% girls) meet guidelines. Effective intervention policies are urgently needed to increase PA.

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts.

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

Risk Factors for Macro- and Microvascular Complications among Older Adults with Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes: Findings from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing.

Objective. To explore risk factors for macro- and microvascular complications in a nationally representative sample of adults aged 50 years and over with type 2 diabetes in Ireland. Methods. Data from the first wave of The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) (2009-2011) was used in cross-sectional analysis. The presence of doctor diagnosis of diabetes, risk factors, and macro- and microvascular complications were determined by self-report. Gender-specific differences in risk factor prevalence were assessed with the chi-squared test. Binomial regression analysis was conducted to explore independent associations between established risk factors and diabetes-related complications. Results. Among 8175 respondents, 655 were classified as having type 2 diabetes. Older age, being male, a history of smoking, a lower level of physical activity, and a diagnosis of high cholesterol were independent predictors of macrovascular complications. Diabetes diagnosis of 10 or more years, a history of smoking, and a diagnosis of hypertension were associated with an increased risk of microvascular complications. Older age, third-level education, and a high level of physical activity were protective factors (p < 0.05). Conclusions. Early intervention to target modifiable risk factors is urgently needed to reduce diabetes-related morbidity in the older population in Ireland.