Multifractal analysis to study break points in temperature data sets.

Since the last century, the air surface temperature has increased at a global scale, showing trends and inhomogeneities that vary from place to place. Many statistical methods can be used to analyze whether or not an inhomogeneity or break point exists in a meteorological data series, and even to detect the time of the break. Sometimes, there is no agreement in the year at which the inhomogeneity occurs detected by different tests. The scale invariance of a process can be studied through its multifractal properties that can be related to the existence of break points in it. In this work, the multifractal properties of monthly temperature data series are used to test what is the right break point year in those situations at which different dates are found by two different tests: the Pettitt and the Standard Normal Homogeneity tests. The comparison of the fractal dimension function Dq and the multifractal spectrum obtained by the box counting method for both the original data sets and for those obtained by splitting the original into two considering the break point years was made. When different multifractal functions and parameters were obtained, a break point was confirmed. Whereas, if equal values appeared, the break point year was discarded. These results let to select the most suitable test to be applied to detect inhomogeneities in a certain data set that will be very useful for climate change studies.

[Effects of dose of erythropoiesis stimulating agents on cardiovascular outcomes, quality of life and costs of haemodialysis. the clinical evaluation of the DOSe of erythropoietins (C.E. DOSE) Trial]. / Effetti della dose degli agenti stimolanti l'eritropoiesi su esiti cardio-cerebrovascolari, qualità di vita e costi in emodialisi.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia is a risk factor for death, adverse cardiovascular outcomes and poor quality of life in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Erythropoietin Stimulating Agents (ESA) are the most used treatment option. In observational studies, higher haemoglobin (Hb) levels (around 11-13 g/dL) are associated with improved survival and quality of life compared to Hb levels around 9-10 g/dL. Randomized studies found that targeting higher Hb levels with ESA causes an increased risk of death, mainly due to adverse cardiovascular outcomes. It is possible that this is mediated by ESA dose rather than haemoglobin concentration, although this hypothesis has never been formally tested. METHODS: We present the protocol of the Clinical Evaluation of the Dose of Erythropoietins (C.E. DOSE) trial, which will assess the benefits and harms of a high versus a low ESA dose therapeutic strategy for the management of anaemia of end stage kidney disease (ESKD). This is a randomized, prospective open label blinded end-point (PROBE) design trial due to enroll 900 haemodialysis patients. Patients will be randomized 1:1 to 4000 UI/week i. v. versus 18000 UI/week i. v. of epoetin alfa, beta or any other epoetin in equivalent doses. The primary outcome of the trial is a composite of cardiovascular events. In addition, quality of life and costs of these two strategies will be assessed. The study has been approved and funded by the Italian Agency of Drugs (Agenzia Italiana del Farmaco (AIFA)) within the 2006 funding plan for independent research on drugs (registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00827021)).

Competition among memes in a world with limited attention.

The wide adoption of social media has increased the competition among ideas for our finite attention. We employ a parsimonious agent-based model to study whether such a competition may affect the popularity of different memes, the diversity of information we are exposed to, and the fading of our collective interests for specific topics. Agents share messages on a social network but can only pay attention to a portion of the information they receive. In the emerging dynamics of information diffusion, a few memes go viral while most do not. The predictions of our model are consistent with empirical data from Twitter, a popular microblogging platform. Surprisingly, we can explain the massive heterogeneity in the popularity and persistence of memes as deriving from a combination of the competition for our limited attention and the structure of the social network, without the need to assume different intrinsic values among ideas.

[Patient satisfaction in hemodialysis: a pilot cross-sectional analysis and a review]. / Valutazione del grado di soddisfazione da trattamento nel paziente in emodialisi: metologia di ricerca, strumenti, limiti e studio pilota trasversale.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of patient satisfaction is not performed routinely in many healthcare institutions. In this review, we discuss methodological aspects of assessment of patient satisfaction in hemodialysis. We also present a pilot study conducted in the Gambro Healthcare Italy dialysis clinics network. METHODS: Patient satisfaction was assessed in a network of hemodialysis units by using an internally validated Italian translation of the Choices for Healthy Outcomes in Caring for ESRD (CHOICE) questionnaire. A cross-sectional analytic study design was used and data analysed with univariate and multivariate hierarchical logistic regression to explore correlates of the risk of being unsatisfied with dialysis treatment. Covariates which were considered include a series of over 20 clinical, demographic, organizational and structural aspects. In addition, unexplained inter-centre residual variability due to 'case-mix' was explored and plotted. RESULTS: Seventeen dialysis units participated in this cross-sectional analysis and 758/1001 (75.7%) provided answers to the questionnaires. There was a statistically significant association on multivariate hierarchical analysis between the risk of being unsatisfied with dialysis treatment and interdialysis body weight gain (unit of increase: 1 kg, p=0.004). On the contrary, the risk of unsatisfaction with dialysis treatment was significantly lower in patients with higher dry weight (unit of increase: 1 kg, p=0.002). Our multivariate hierarchical analysis identified some residual variability between dialysis units (n=6 outliers) which may not be explained by any of over 20 potential confounding covariates which were explored. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of ''customer satisfaction'' is standard practice in private for profit product companies in general but needs to be increasingly recognized as a standard in both public and private providers of healthcare services. Social research methods, which are used for this type of analysis, need to be fine tuned and actively implemented in order to better understand how we may influence the quality of service we provide to our patients and the level at which they rate it.

Topical interests and the mitigation of search engine bias.

Search engines have become key media for our scientific, economic, and social activities by enabling people to access information on the web despite its size and complexity. On the down side, search engines bias the traffic of users according to their page ranking strategies, and it has been argued that they create a vicious cycle that amplifies the dominance of established and already popular sites. This bias could lead to a dangerous monopoly of information. We show that, contrary to intuition, empirical data do not support this conclusion; popular sites receive far less traffic than predicted. We discuss a model that accurately predicts traffic data patterns by taking into consideration the topical interests of users and their searching behavior in addition to the way search engines rank pages. The heterogeneity of user interests explains the observed mitigation of search engines' popularity bias.

[The Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS): results of the Italian cohort]. / Lo studio DOPPS (Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study): risultati della coorte italiana.

BACKGROUND: The Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS) is an international prospective, longitudinal, observational study examining the relationship between dialysis unit practices and outcomes for hemodialysis (HD) patients in seven developed countries France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan and the United States. Results of the DOPPS in Italy are the subject of this report. METHODS: A national representative sample of 20 dialysis units (21 in Germany) was randomly selected in each of the European DOPPS countries (Euro-DOPPS). In these units, the HD in-center patients were included on a facility census, and their survival rates continuously monitored. A representative sample of incident (269 in Italy, 1553 in the Euro-DOPPS) and prevalent (600 in Italy, 3038 in the Euro-DOPPS) patients was randomly selected from the census for more detailed longitudinal investigation with regard to medical history, laboratory values and hospital admission. RESULTS: Comparing the Italian and Euro-DOPPS cohorts we found comparable mean age for prevalent patients (61.4 vs. 59.5 yrs), but incident patients were older in Italy. Italian prevalent patients had less cardiovascular disease, more satisfactory nutritional status and more frequent use of native vascular access. These data were associated with a comparable mortality (15.7 vs. 16.3 deaths/100 patient yrs), but morbidity was lower in Italy. Kt/V levels were comparable in the two cohorts (1.32 vs. 1.37), but 35% of Italian patients showed a Kt/V below the recommended target. Moreover, hemoglobin levels were below 11 g/dL in 60% of Italian patients. CONCLUSIONS: The DOPPS results bring to light several positive aspects and the opportunity for further possible improvements for Italian patients, but at the same time highlight some critical points that could represent a risk for dialysis quality.

Angular structure of lacunarity, and the renormalization group

We formulate the angular structure of lacunarity in fractals, in terms of a symmetry reduction of the three point correlation function. This provides a rich probe of universality, and first measurements yield new evidence in support of the equivalence between self-avoiding walks (SAW's) and percolation perimeters in two dimensions. We argue that the lacunarity reveals much of the renormalization group in real space. This is supported by exact calculations for random walks and measured data for percolation clusters and SAW's. Relationships follow between exponents governing inward and outward propagating perturbations, and we also find a very general test for the contribution of long-range interactions.

Topology of the fittest transportation network.

The presence or absence of loops in the emergent transportation networks, that are characterized by a minimum overall cost, is shown to depend on the convexity of the cost function for the local transportation of material. Our results are directly applicable to a variety of situations across disciplines.

Universality Classes of Optimal Channel Networks

Energy minimization of both homogeneous and heterogeneous river networks shows that, over a range of parameter values, there are only three distinct universality classes. The exponents for all three classes of behavior are calculated.