Resting heart rate and incident atrial fibrillation: A stratified Mendelian randomization in the AFGen consortium.

BACKGROUND: Both elevated and low resting heart rates are associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), suggesting a U-shaped relationship. However, evidence for a U-shaped causal association between genetically-determined resting heart rate and incident AF is limited. We investigated potential directional changes of the causal association between genetically-determined resting heart rate and incident AF. METHOD AND RESULTS: Seven cohorts of the AFGen consortium contributed data to this meta-analysis. All participants were of European ancestry with known AF status, genotype information, and a heart rate measurement from a baseline electrocardiogram (ECG). Three strata of instrumental variable-free resting heart rate were used to assess possible non-linear associations between genetically-determined resting heart rate and the logarithm of the incident AF hazard rate: <65; 65-75; and >75 beats per minute (bpm). Mendelian randomization analyses using a weighted resting heart rate polygenic risk score were performed for each stratum. We studied 38,981 individuals (mean age 59±10 years, 54% women) with a mean resting heart rate of 67±11 bpm. During a mean follow-up of 13±5 years, 4,779 (12%) individuals developed AF. A U-shaped association between the resting heart rate and the incident AF-hazard ratio was observed. Genetically-determined resting heart rate was inversely associated with incident AF for instrumental variable-free resting heart rates below 65 bpm (hazard ratio for genetically-determined resting heart rate, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-0.99; p = 0.01). Genetically-determined resting heart rate was not associated with incident AF in the other two strata. CONCLUSIONS: For resting heart rates below 65 bpm, our results support an inverse causal association between genetically-determined resting heart rate and incident AF.

Polypharmacy, functional outcome and treatment effect of intravenous alteplase for acute ischaemic stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Polypharmacy is an important challenge in clinical practice. Our aim was to determine the effect of polypharmacy on functional outcome and treatment effect of alteplase in acute ischaemic stroke. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of the randomized, placebo-controlled WAKE-UP trial of magnetic resonance imaging guided intravenous alteplase in unknown onset stroke. Polypharmacy was defined as an intake of five or more medications at baseline. Comorbidities were assessed by the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). The primary efficacy variable was favourable outcome defined by a score of 0-1 on the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days. Logistic regression analysis was used to test for an association of polypharmacy with functional outcome, and for interaction of polypharmacy and the effect of thrombolysis. RESULTS: Polypharmacy was present in 133/503 (26%) patients. Patients with polypharmacy were older (mean age 70 vs. 64 years; p < 0.0001) and had a higher score on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale at baseline (median 7 vs. 5; p = 0.0007). A comorbidity load defined by a CCI score ≥ 2 was more frequent in patients with polypharmacy (48% vs. 8%; p < 0.001). Polypharmacy was associated with lower odds of favourable outcome (adjusted odds ratio 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.30-0.85; p = 0.0099), whilst the CCI score was not. Treatment with alteplase was associated with higher odds of favourable outcome in both groups, with no heterogeneity of treatment effect (test for interaction of treatment and polypharmacy, p = 0.29). CONCLUSION: In stroke patients, polypharmacy is associated with worse functional outcome after intravenous thrombolysis independent of comorbidities. However, polypharmacy does not interact with the beneficial effect of alteplase.

Cost burden of Clostridioides difficile infection to the health service: A retrospective cohort study in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is associated with high healthcare demands and related costs. AIM: To evaluate the healthcare and economic burden of CDI in hospitalized patients with community- (HOCA-CDI) or hospital-associated CDI (HOHA-CDI) in the National Health Service in Scotland. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, examining data between August 2010 and July 2013 from four patient-level Scottish datasets, linked to death data. Data examined included prior antimicrobial prescriptions in the community, hospitalizations, length of stay and mortality. Each CDI case was matched to three hospital-based controls on the basis of age, gender, hospital and date of admission. Descriptive economic evaluations were based on bed-day costs for different types of wards. FINDINGS: Overall, 3304 CDI cases were included in the study. CDI was associated with additional median lengths of stay of 7.2 days for HOCA-CDI and 12.0 days for HOHA-CDI compared with their respective, matched controls. The 30-day mortality rate was 6.8% for HOCA-CDI and 12.4% for HOHA-CDI. Overall, recurrence within 90 days of the first CDI episode occurred in 373/2740 (13.6%) survivors. The median additional expenditure for each initial CDI case compared with matched controls was £1713. In the 6 months after the index hospitalization, the cost associated with a CDI case was £5126 higher than for controls. CONCLUSION: Using routinely collected national data, we demonstrated the substantial burden of CDI on healthcare services, including lengthy hospital stays and readmissions, which increased the costs of managing patients with CDI compared with matched controls.

Efficient choice of colored noise in the stochastic dynamics of open quantum systems.

The stochastic Liouville-von Neumann (SLN) equation describes the dynamics of an open quantum system reduced density matrix coupled to a non-Markovian harmonic environment. The interaction with the environment is represented by complex colored noises which drive the system, and whose correlation functions are set by the properties of the environment. We present a number of schemes capable of generating colored noises of this kind that are built on a noise amplitude reduction procedure [Imai et al., Chem. Phys. 446, 134 (2015)CMPHC20301-010410.1016/j.chemphys.2014.11.014], including two analytically optimized schemes. In doing so, we pay close attention to the properties of the correlation functions in Fourier space, which we derive in full. For some schemes the method of Wiener filtering for deconvolutions leads to the realization that weakening causality in one of the noise correlation functions improves numerical convergence considerably, allowing us to introduce a well-controlled method for doing so. We compare the ability of these schemes, along with an alternative optimized scheme [Schmitz and Stockburger, Eur. Phys. J.: Spec. Top. 227, 1929 (2019)1951-635510.1140/epjst/e2018-800094-y], to reduce the growth in the mean and variance of the trace of the reduced density matrix, and their ability to extend the region in which the dynamics is stable and well converged for a range of temperatures. By numerically optimizing an additional noise scaling freedom, we identify the scheme which performs best for the parameters used, improving convergence by orders of magnitude and increasing the time accessible by simulation.

Genome-wide meta-analysis of variant-by-diuretic interactions as modulators of lipid traits in persons of European and African ancestry.

Hypertension (HTN) is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Metabolic abnormalities, including adverse cholesterol and triglycerides (TG) profiles, are frequent comorbid findings with HTN and contribute to cardiovascular disease. Diuretics, which are used to treat HTN and heart failure, have been associated with worsening of fasting lipid concentrations. Genome-wide meta-analyses with 39,710 European-ancestry (EA) individuals and 9925 African-ancestry (AA) individuals were performed to identify genetic variants that modify the effect of loop or thiazide diuretic use on blood lipid concentrations. Both longitudinal and cross sectional data were used to compute cohort-specific interaction results, which were then combined through meta-analysis in each ancestry. These ancestry-specific results were further combined through trans-ancestry meta-analysis. Analysis of EA data identified two genome-wide significant (p < 5 × 10-8) loci with single nucleotide variant (SNV)-loop diuretic interaction on TG concentrations (including COL11A1). Analysis of AA data identified one genome-wide significant locus adjacent to BMP2 with SNV-loop diuretic interaction on TG concentrations. Trans-ancestry analysis strengthened evidence of association for SNV-loop diuretic interaction at two loci (KIAA1217 and BAALC). There were few significant SNV-thiazide diuretic interaction associations on TG concentrations and for either diuretic on cholesterol concentrations. Several promising loci were identified that may implicate biologic pathways that contribute to adverse metabolic side effects from diuretic therapy.

The kidney, subclinical thyroid disease and cardiovascular outcomes in older patients.

OBJECTIVE: Thyroid hormones have been implicated to play a role in cardiovascular disease, along with studies linking thyroid hormone to kidney function. The aim of this study is to investigate whether kidney function modifies the association of subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: In total, 5804 patients were included in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER). For the current analysis, 426 were excluded because of overt thyroid disease at baseline or 6 months, 266 because of inconsistent thyroid function at baseline and 6 months, 294 because of medication use that could influence thyroid function, and 16 because of missing kidney or thyroid values. Participants with normal fT4 were classified, based on TSH both at inclusion and 6 months, into three groups: subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH >4.5 mIU/L); euthyroidism (TSH = 0.45-4.5 mIU/L); and subclinical hyperthyroidism (TSH <0.45 mIU/L). Strata of kidney function were made based on estimated glomerular filtration rate into three clinically relevant groups: <45, 45-60, and >60 mL/min/1.73 m2. The primary endpoint consists of death from coronary heart disease, non-fatal myocardial infarction and (non)fatal stroke. RESULTS: Mean age was 75.3 years, and 49.0% patients were male. Mean follow-up was 3.2 years. Of all participants, 109 subjects (2.2%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, 4573 (94.0%) had euthyroidism, and 182 (3.7%) subclinical hyperthyroidism. For patients with subclinical hypothyroidism, euthyroidism, and subclinical hyperthyroidism, primary outcome occurred in 9 (8.3%), 712 (15.6%), and 23 (12.6%) patients, respectively. No statistically significant relationship was found between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and primary endpoint with adjusted hazard ratios of 0.51 (0.24-1.07) comparing subclinical hyperthyroidism and 0.90 (0.58-1.39) comparing subclinical hypothyroidism with euthyroidism. Neither was this relationship present in any of the strata of kidney function, nor did kidney function interact with subclinical thyroid dysfunction in the association with primary endpoint (P interaction = 0.602 for subclinical hyperthyroidism and 0.388 for subclinical hypothyroidism). CONCLUSIONS: In this secondary analysis from PROSPER, we found no evidence that the potential association between thyroid hormones and cardiovascular disease is modified by kidney function in older patients with subclinical thyroid dysfunction.

Study protocol: a randomised controlled trial on the clinical effects of levothyroxine treatment for subclinical hypothyroidism in people aged 80 years and over.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical hypothyroidism is common in older people and its contribution to health and disease needs to be elucidated further. Observational and clinical trial data on the clinical effects of subclinical hypothyroidism in persons aged 80 years and over is inconclusive, with some studies suggesting harm and some suggesting benefits, translating into equipoise whether levothyroxine therapy provides clinical benefits. This manuscript describes the study protocol for the Institute for Evidence-Based Medicine in Old Age (IEMO) 80-plus thyroid trial to generate the necessary evidence base. METHODS: The IEMO 80-plus thyroid trial was explicitly designed as an ancillary experiment to the Thyroid hormone Replacement for Untreated older adults with Subclinical hypothyroidism randomised placebo controlled Trial (TRUST) with a near identical protocol and shared research infrastructure. Outcomes will be presented separately for the IEMO and TRUST 80-plus groups, as well as a pre-planned combined analysis of the 145 participants included in the IEMO trial and the 146 participants from the TRUST thyroid trial aged 80 years and over. The IEMO 80-plus thyroid trial is a multi-centre randomised double-blind placebo-controlled parallel group trial of levothyroxine treatment in community-dwelling participants aged 80 years and over with persistent subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH ≥4.6 and ≤ 19.9 mU/L and fT4 within laboratory reference ranges). Participants are randomised to levothyroxine 25 or 50 micrograms daily or matching placebo with dose titrations according to TSH levels, for a minimum follow-up of one and a maximum of three years. Primary study endpoints: hypothyroid physical symptoms and tiredness on the thyroid-related quality of life patient-reported outcome (ThyPRO) at one year. Secondary endpoints: generic quality of life, executive cognitive function, handgrip strength, functional ability, blood pressure, weight, body mass index, and mortality. Adverse events will be recorded with specific interest on cardiovascular endpoints such as atrial fibrillation and heart failure. DISCUSSION: The combined analysis of participants in the IEMO 80-plus thyroid trial with the participants aged over 80 in the TRUST trial will provide the largest experimental evidence base on multimodal effects of levothyroxine treatment in 80-plus persons to date. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Nederlands (Dutch) Trial Register: NTR3851 (12-02-2013), EudraCT: 2012-004160-22 (17-02-2013), ABR-41259.058.13 (12-02-2013).

Modelling the effect of acoustic waves on the thermodynamics and kinetics of phase transformation in a solution: Including mass transportation.

Effects of acoustic waves on a phase transformation in a metastable phase were investigated in our previous work [S. R. Haqshenas, I. J. Ford, and N. Saffari, "Modelling the effect of acoustic waves on nucleation," J. Chem. Phys. 145, 024315 (2016)]. We developed a non-equimolar dividing surface cluster model and employed it to determine the thermodynamics and kinetics of crystallisation induced by an acoustic field in a mass-conserved system. In the present work, we developed a master equation based on a hybrid Szilard-Fokker-Planck model, which accounts for mass transportation due to acoustic waves. This model can determine the kinetics of nucleation and the early stage of growth of clusters including the Ostwald ripening phenomenon. It was solved numerically to calculate the kinetics of an isothermal sonocrystallisation process in a system with mass transportation. The simulation results show that the effect of mass transportation for different excitations depends on the waveform as well as the imposed boundary conditions and tends to be noticeable in the case of shock waves. The derivations are generic and can be used with any acoustic source and waveform.

Pharmacogenomics study of thiazide diuretics and QT interval in multi-ethnic populations: the cohorts for heart and aging research in genomic epidemiology.

Thiazide diuretics, commonly used antihypertensives, may cause QT interval (QT) prolongation, a risk factor for highly fatal and difficult to predict ventricular arrhythmias. We examined whether common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) modified the association between thiazide use and QT or its component parts (QRS interval, JT interval) by performing ancestry-specific, trans-ethnic and cross-phenotype genome-wide analyses of European (66%), African American (15%) and Hispanic (19%) populations (N=78 199), leveraging longitudinal data, incorporating corrected standard errors to account for underestimation of interaction estimate variances and evaluating evidence for pathway enrichment. Although no loci achieved genome-wide significance (P<5 × 10-8), we found suggestive evidence (P<5 × 10-6) for SNPs modifying the thiazide-QT association at 22 loci, including ion transport loci (for example, NELL1, KCNQ3). The biologic plausibility of our suggestive results and simulations demonstrating modest power to detect interaction effects at genome-wide significant levels indicate that larger studies and innovative statistical methods are warranted in future efforts evaluating thiazide-SNP interactions.

A free energy study of carbon clusters on Ir(111): Precursors to graphene growth.

It is widely accepted that the nucleation of graphene on transition metals is related to the formation of carbon clusters of various sizes and shapes on the surface. Assuming a low concentration of carbon atoms on a crystal surface, we derive a thermodynamic expression for the grand potential of the cluster of N carbon atoms, relative to a single carbon atom on the surface (the cluster work of formation). This is derived taking into account both the energetic and entropic contributions, including structural and rotational components, and is explicitly dependent on the temperature. Then, using ab initio density functional theory, we calculate the work of formation of carbon clusters CN on the Ir(111) surface as a function of temperature considering clusters with up to N = 16 C atoms. We consider five types of clusters (chains, rings, arches, top-hollow, and domes), and find, in agreement with previous zero temperature studies, that at elevated temperatures the structure most favoured depends on N, with chains and arches being the most likely at N<10 and the hexagonal domes becoming the most favourable at all temperatures for N>10. Our calculations reveal the work of formation to have a much more complex character as a function of the cluster size than one would expect from classical nucleation theory: for typical conditions, the work of formation displays not one but two nucleation barriers, at around N = 4-5 and N = 9-11. This suggests, in agreement with existing LEEM data, that five atom carbon clusters, along with C monomers, must play a pivotal role in the nucleation and growth of graphene sheets, whereby the formation of large clusters is achieved from the coalescence of smaller clusters (Smoluchowski ripening). Although the main emphasis of our study is on thermodynamic aspects of nucleation, the pivotal role of kinetics of transitions between different cluster types during the nucleation process is also discussed for a few cases as illustrative examples.

Modelling the effect of acoustic waves on nucleation.

A phase transformation in a metastable phase can be affected when it is subjected to a high intensity ultrasound wave. In this study we determined the effect of oscillation in pressure and temperature on a phase transformation using the Gibbs droplet model in a generic format. The developed model is valid for both equilibrium and non-equilibrium clusters formed through a stationary or non-stationary process. We validated the underlying model by comparing the predicted kinetics of water droplet formation from the gas phase against experimental data in the absence of ultrasound. Our results demonstrated better agreement with experimental data in comparison with classical nucleation theory. Then, we determined the thermodynamics and kinetics of nucleation and the early stage of growth of clusters in an isothermal sonocrystallisation process. This new contribution shows that the effect of pressure on the kinetics of nucleation is cluster size-dependent in contrast to classical nucleation theory.

A cardiovascular disease policy model: part 2-preparing for economic evaluation and to assess health inequalities.

OBJECTIVES: This is the second of the two papers introducing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model. The first paper described the structure and statistical underpinning of the state-transition model, demonstrating how life expectancy estimates are generated for individuals defined by ASSIGN risk factors. This second paper describes how the model is prepared to undertake economic evaluation. DESIGN: To generate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), the Scottish Health Survey was used to estimate background morbidity (health utilities) and the impact of CVD events (utility decrements). The SF-6D algorithm generated utilities and decrements were modelled using ordinary least squares (OLS). To generate lifetime hospital costs, the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) was linked to the Scottish morbidity and death records (SMR) to cost each continuous inpatient stay (CIS). OLS and restricted cubic splines estimated annual costs before and after each of the first four events. A Kaplan-Meier sample average (KMSA) estimator was then used to weight expected health-related quality of life and costs by the probability of survival. RESULTS: The policy model predicts the change in QALE and lifetime hospital costs as a result of an intervention(s) modifying risk factors. Cost-effectiveness analysis and a full uncertainty analysis can be undertaken, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Notably, the impacts according to socioeconomic deprivation status can be made. CONCLUSIONS: The policy model can conduct cost-effectiveness analysis and decision analysis to inform approaches to primary prevention, including individually targeted and population interventions, and to assess impacts on health inequalities.

Non-response to (statin) therapy: the importance of distinguishing non-responders from non-adherers in pharmacogenetic studies.

PURPOSE: In pharmacogenetic research, genetic variation in non-responders and high responders is compared with the aim to identify the genetic loci responsible for this variation in response. However, an important question is whether the non-responders are truly biologically non-responsive or actually non-adherent? Therefore, the aim of this study was to describe, within the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER), characteristics of both non-responders and high responders of statin treatment in order to possibly discriminate non-responders from non-adherers. METHODS: Baseline characteristics of non-responders to statin therapy (≤10 % LDL-C reduction) were compared with those of high responders (>40 % LDL-C reduction) through a linear regression analysis. In addition, pharmacogenetic candidate gene analysis was performed to show the effect of excluding non-responders from the analysis. RESULTS: Non-responders to statin therapy were younger (p = 0.001), more often smoked (p < 0.001), had a higher alcohol consumption (p < 0.001), had lower LDL cholesterol levels (p < 0.001), had a lower prevalence of hypertension (p < 0.001), and had lower cognitive function (p = 0.035) compared to subjects who highly responded to pravastatin treatment. Moreover, excluding non-responders from pharmacogenetic studies yielded more robust results, as standard errors decreased. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that non-responders to statin therapy are more likely to actually be non-adherers, since they have more characteristics that are viewed as indicators of high self-perceived health and low disease awareness, possibly making the subjects less adherent to study medication. We suggest that in pharmacogenetic research, extreme non-responders should be excluded to overcome the problem that non-adherence is investigated instead of non-responsiveness.

GWAS for executive function and processing speed suggests involvement of the CADM2 gene.

To identify common variants contributing to normal variation in two specific domains of cognitive functioning, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of executive functioning and information processing speed in non-demented older adults from the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) consortium. Neuropsychological testing was available for 5429-32,070 subjects of European ancestry aged 45 years or older, free of dementia and clinical stroke at the time of cognitive testing from 20 cohorts in the discovery phase. We analyzed performance on the Trail Making Test parts A and B, the Letter Digit Substitution Test (LDST), the Digit Symbol Substitution Task (DSST), semantic and phonemic fluency tests, and the Stroop Color and Word Test. Replication was sought in 1311-21860 subjects from 20 independent cohorts. A significant association was observed in the discovery cohorts for the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs17518584 (discovery P-value=3.12 × 10(-8)) and in the joint discovery and replication meta-analysis (P-value=3.28 × 10(-9) after adjustment for age, gender and education) in an intron of the gene cell adhesion molecule 2 (CADM2) for performance on the LDST/DSST. Rs17518584 is located about 170 kb upstream of the transcription start site of the major transcript for the CADM2 gene, but is within an intron of a variant transcript that includes an alternative first exon. The variant is associated with expression of CADM2 in the cingulate cortex (P-value=4 × 10(-4)). The protein encoded by CADM2 is involved in glutamate signaling (P-value=7.22 × 10(-15)), gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) transport (P-value=1.36 × 10(-11)) and neuron cell-cell adhesion (P-value=1.48 × 10(-13)). Our findings suggest that genetic variation in the CADM2 gene is associated with individual differences in information processing speed.

Genetic contributions to variation in general cognitive function: a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in the CHARGE consortium (N=53949).

General cognitive function is substantially heritable across the human life course from adolescence to old age. We investigated the genetic contribution to variation in this important, health- and well-being-related trait in middle-aged and older adults. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of 31 cohorts (N=53,949) in which the participants had undertaken multiple, diverse cognitive tests. A general cognitive function phenotype was tested for, and created in each cohort by principal component analysis. We report 13 genome-wide significant single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations in three genomic regions, 6q16.1, 14q12 and 19q13.32 (best SNP and closest gene, respectively: rs10457441, P=3.93 × 10(-9), MIR2113; rs17522122, P=2.55 × 10(-8), AKAP6; rs10119, P=5.67 × 10(-9), APOE/TOMM40). We report one gene-based significant association with the HMGN1 gene located on chromosome 21 (P=1 × 10(-6)). These genes have previously been associated with neuropsychiatric phenotypes. Meta-analysis results are consistent with a polygenic model of inheritance. To estimate SNP-based heritability, the genome-wide complex trait analysis procedure was applied to two large cohorts, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (N=6617) and the Health and Retirement Study (N=5976). The proportion of phenotypic variation accounted for by all genotyped common SNPs was 29% (s.e.=5%) and 28% (s.e.=7%), respectively. Using polygenic prediction analysis, ~1.2% of the variance in general cognitive function was predicted in the Generation Scotland cohort (N=5487; P=1.5 × 10(-17)). In hypothesis-driven tests, there was significant association between general cognitive function and four genes previously associated with Alzheimer's disease: TOMM40, APOE, ABCG1 and MEF2C.

Effects of rotational symmetry breaking in polymer-coated nanopores.

The statistical theory of polymers tethered around the inner surface of a cylindrical channel has traditionally employed the assumption that the equilibrium density of the polymers is independent of the azimuthal coordinate. However, simulations have shown that this rotational symmetry can be broken when there are attractive interactions between the polymers. We investigate the phases that emerge in these circumstances, and we quantify the effect of the symmetry assumption on the phase behavior of the system. In the absence of this assumption, one can observe large differences in the equilibrium densities between the rotationally symmetric case and the non-rotationally symmetric case. A simple analytical model is developed that illustrates the driving thermodynamic forces responsible for this symmetry breaking. Our results have implications for the current understanding of the behavior of polymers in cylindrical nanopores.

A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation.

OBJECTIVES: A policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions. In this study, we introduce a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model which can be used to model remaining life expectancy including a measure of socioeconomic deprivation as an independent risk factor for CVD. DESIGN: A state transition model was developed using the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) linked to Scottish morbidity and death records. Individuals start in a CVD-free state and can transit to three CVD event states plus a non-CVD death state. Individuals who have a non-fatal first event are then followed up until death. Taking a competing risk approach, the cause-specific hazards of a first event are modelled using parametric survival analysis. Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically. We assessed discrimination, validation and calibration of our model. RESULTS: Our model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)-non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)). In general, our model predictions were comparable with observed event rates for a Scottish randomised statin trial population which has an overlapping follow-up period with SHHEC. After applying a calibration factor, our predictions of life expectancy closely match those published in recent national life tables. CONCLUSIONS: Our model can be used to estimate the impact of primary prevention interventions on life expectancy and can assess the impact of interventions on inequalities.

Optimization algorithm for rate equations with an application to epitaxial graphene.

We describe an algorithm that searches the parameter space of rate theories to optimize the associated rate coefficients based on a fit to experimental (or any other) data. Beginning with an initial set of parameters, which may be estimated, partially calculated, or indeed random, the algorithm follows a path, calculating the error at each point, until a minimum error is reached. We illustrate our method by correcting a previously proposed rate theory for the nucleation and growth of graphene on Ru(0 0 0 1) and Ir(1 1 1) to account for the temperature dependence of the graphene island density. This quantity shows an exponential decrease as the temperature is raised, in contrast to the power law decrease predicted by conventional nucleation theory, which indicates that a qualitatively different mechanism is operative for graphene island formation. Other applications of our method are also discussed.

Drug-gene interactions and the search for missing heritability: a cross-sectional pharmacogenomics study of the QT interval.

Variability in response to drug use is common and heritable, suggesting that genome-wide pharmacogenomics studies may help explain the 'missing heritability' of complex traits. Here, we describe four independent analyses in 33 781 participants of European ancestry from 10 cohorts that were designed to identify genetic variants modifying the effects of drugs on QT interval duration (QT). Each analysis cross-sectionally examined four therapeutic classes: thiazide diuretics (prevalence of use=13.0%), tri/tetracyclic antidepressants (2.6%), sulfonylurea hypoglycemic agents (2.9%) and QT-prolonging drugs as classified by the University of Arizona Center for Education and Research on Therapeutics (4.4%). Drug-gene interactions were estimated using covariable-adjusted linear regression and results were combined with fixed-effects meta-analysis. Although drug-single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) interactions were biologically plausible and variables were well-measured, findings from the four cross-sectional meta-analyses were null (Pinteraction>5.0 × 10(-8)). Simulations suggested that additional efforts, including longitudinal modeling to increase statistical power, are likely needed to identify potentially important pharmacogenomic effects.

Clinical profiles and outcomes in patients with chronic heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an efficacy and safety analysis of SHIFT study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) frequently coexist, with undefined prognostic and therapeutic implications. We investigated clinical profile and outcomes of patients with chronic HF and COPD, notably the efficacy and safety of ivabradine, a heart rate-reducing agent. METHODS: 6505 ambulatory patients, in sinus rhythm, heart rate ≥ 70 bpm and stable systolic HF were randomised to placebo or ivabradine (2.5 to 7.5mg bid). Multivariate Cox model analyses were performed to compare the COPD (n=730) and non-COPD subgroups, and the ivabradine and placebo treatment effects. RESULTS: COPD patients were older and had a poorer risk profile. Beta-blockers were prescribed to 69% of COPD patients and 92% of non-COPD patients. The primary endpoint (PEP) and its component, hospitalisation for worsening HF, were more frequent in COPD patients (HRs f, 1.22 [p=0.006]; and 1.34 [p<0.001]) respectively, but relative risk was reduced similarly by ivabradine in both COPD (14%, and 17%) and non-COPD (18% and 27%) patients (p interaction=0.82, and 0.53, respectively). Similar effect was noted also for cardiovascular death. Adverse events were more common in COPD patients, but similar in treatment subgroups. Bradycardia occurred more frequently in ivabradine subgroups, with similar incidence in patients with or without COPD. CONCLUSIONS: The association of COPD and HF results in a worse prognosis, and COPD represents a barrier to optimisation of beta-blocker therapy. Ivabradine is similarly effective and safe in chronic HF patients with or without COPD, and can be safely combined with beta-blockers in COPD.