A decline in primary production in the North Sea over 25 years, associated with reductions in zooplankton abundance and fish stock recruitment.

Phytoplankton primary production is at the base of the marine food web; changes in primary production have direct or indirect effects on higher trophic levels, from zooplankton organisms to marine mammals and seabirds. Here, we present a new time-series on gross primary production in the North Sea, from 1988 to 2013, estimated using in situ measurements of chlorophyll and underwater light. This shows that recent decades have seen a significant decline in primary production in the North Sea. Moreover, primary production differs in magnitude between six hydrodynamic regions within the North Sea. Sea surface warming and reduced riverine nutrient inputs are found to be likely contributors to the declining levels of primary production. In turn, significant correlations are found between observed changes in primary production and the dynamics of higher trophic levels including (small) copepods and a standardized index of fish recruitment, averaged over seven stocks of high commercial significance in the North Sea. Given positive (bottom-up) associations between primary production, zooplankton abundance and fish stock recruitment, this study provides strong evidence that if the decline in primary production continues, knock-on effects upon the productivity of fisheries are to be expected unless these fisheries are managed effectively and cautiously.

Decrease in water clarity of the southern and central North Sea during the 20th century.

Light in the marine environment is a key environmental variable coupling physics to marine biogeochemistry and ecology. Weak light penetration reduces light available for photosynthesis, changing energy fluxes through the marine food web. Based on published and unpublished data, this study shows that the central and southern North Sea has become significantly less clear over the second half of the 20th century. In particular, in the different regions and seasons investigated, the average Secchi depth pre-1950 decreased between 25% and 75% compared to the average Secchi depth post-1950. Consequently, in summer pre-1950, most (74%) of the sea floor in the permanently mixed area off East Anglia was within the photic zone. For the last 25+ years, changes in water clarity were more likely driven by an increase in the concentration of suspended sediments, rather than phytoplankton. We suggest that a combination of causes have contributed to this increase in suspended sediments such as changes in sea-bed communities and in weather patterns, decreased sink of sediments in estuaries, and increased coastal erosion. A predicted future increase in storminess (Beniston et al., 2007; Kovats et al., 2014) could enhance the concentration of suspended sediments in the water column and consequently lead to a further decrease in clarity, with potential impacts on phytoplankton production, CO2 fluxes, and fishery production.

Predicting the electron requirement for carbon fixation in seas and oceans.

Marine phytoplankton account for about 50% of all global net primary productivity (NPP). Active fluorometry, mainly Fast Repetition Rate fluorometry (FRRf), has been advocated as means of providing high resolution estimates of NPP. However, not measuring CO2-fixation directly, FRRf instead provides photosynthetic quantum efficiency estimates from which electron transfer rates (ETR) and ultimately CO2-fixation rates can be derived. Consequently, conversions of ETRs to CO2-fixation requires knowledge of the electron requirement for carbon fixation (Φe,C, ETR/CO2 uptake rate) and its dependence on environmental gradients. Such knowledge is critical for large scale implementation of active fluorescence to better characterise CO2-uptake. Here we examine the variability of experimentally determined Φe,C values in relation to key environmental variables with the aim of developing new working algorithms for the calculation of Φe,C from environmental variables. Coincident FRRf and (14)C-uptake and environmental data from 14 studies covering 12 marine regions were analysed via a meta-analytical, non-parametric, multivariate approach. Combining all studies, Φe,C varied between 1.15 and 54.2 mol e(-) (mol C)(-1) with a mean of 10.9 ± 6.91 mol e(-) mol C)(-1). Although variability of Φe,C was related to environmental gradients at global scales, region-specific analyses provided far improved predictive capability. However, use of regional Φ e,C algorithms requires objective means of defining regions of interest, which remains challenging. Considering individual studies and specific small-scale regions, temperature, nutrient and light availability were correlated with Φ e,C albeit to varying degrees and depending on the study/region and the composition of the extant phytoplankton community. At the level of large biogeographic regions and distinct water masses, Φ e,C was related to nutrient availability, chlorophyll, as well as temperature and/or salinity in most regions, while light availability was also important in Baltic Sea and shelf waters. The novel Φ e,C algorithms provide a major step forward for widespread fluorometry-based NPP estimates and highlight the need for further studying the natural variability of Φe,C to verify and develop algorithms with improved accuracy.

Ecological evaluation of an experimental beneficial use scheme for dredged sediment disposal in shallow tidal waters.

An experiment was performed to test an alternative dredging strategy for the Westerschelde estuary. Clean sand dredged from the navigation channel was disposed seawards of an eroding intertidal flat in order to modify morphology and hydrodynamics, improving the multi-channel system with ecologically productive shallow water habitat. Five years of intensive monitoring revealed that part of the disposed sediment moved slowly towards the flat, increasing the very shallow subtidal and intertidal area, as planned. The sand in the impact zone became gradually finer after disposal, possibly due to reduced current velocities. Nevertheless, no changes in macrobenthic biomass, density, species richness and composition were detected in the subtidal zone, also demonstrating rapid macrobenthic recovery. In the intertidal zone, no ecological effects could be revealed superimposed on trends associated with long-term sediment fining. Thus, despite morphological success and absence of detected negative ecological impacts of the experiment, new beneficial habitat was not created.

Global-scale predictions of community and ecosystem properties from simple ecological theory.

We show how theoretical developments in macroecology, life-history theory and food-web ecology can be combined to formulate a simple model for predicting the potential biomass, production, size and trophic structure of consumer communities. The strength of our approach is that it uses remote sensing data to predict properties of consumer communities in environments that are challenging and expensive to sample directly. An application of the model to the marine environment on a global scale, using primary production and temperature estimates from satellite remote sensing as inputs, suggests that the global biomass of marine animals more than 10(-5) g wet weight is 2.62 x 10(9)t (=8.16 gm(-2) ocean) and production is 1.00 x 10(10) tyr-1 (31.15 gm(-2)yr(-1)). Based on the life-history theory, we propose and apply an approximation for distinguishing the relative contributions of different animal groups. Fish biomass and production, for example, are estimated as 8.99 x 10(8)t (2.80 gm(-2)) and 7.91 x 108 t yr(-1) (2.46 gm(2)yr(-1)respectively, and 50% of fish biomass is shown to occur in 17% of the total ocean area (8.22 gm(-2)). The analyses show that emerging ecological theory can be synthesized to set baselines for assessing human and climate impacts on global scales.