Adaptive Strategies for Retention in Care among Persons Living with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Optimizing retention in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment may require sequential behavioral interventions based on patients' response. METHODS: In a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial in Kenya, we randomly assigned adults initiating HIV treatment to standard of care (SOC), Short Message Service (SMS) messages, or conditional cash transfers (CCT). Those with retention lapse (missed a clinic visit by ≥14 days) were randomly assigned again to standard-of-care outreach (SOC-Outreach), SMS+CCT, or peer navigation. Those randomly assigned to SMS or CCT who did not lapse after 1 year were randomly assigned again to either stop or continue the initial intervention. Primary outcomes were retention in care without an initial lapse, return to the clinic among those who lapsed, and time in care; secondary outcomes included adjudicated viral suppression. Average treatment effect (ATE) was calculated using targeted maximum likelihood estimation with adjustment for baseline characteristics at randomization and certain time-varying characteristics at rerandomization. RESULTS: Among 1809 participants, 79.7% of those randomly assigned to CCT (n=523/656), 71.7% to SMS (n=393/548), and 70.7% to SOC (n=428/605) were retained in care in the first year (ATE: 9.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.4%, 14.4% and ATE: 4.2%; 95% CI: -0.7%, 9.2% for CCT and SMS compared with SOC, respectively). Among 312 participants with an initial lapse who were randomly assigned again, 69.1% who were randomly assigned to a navigator (n=76/110) returned, 69.5% randomly assigned to CCT+SMS (n=73/105) returned, and 55.7% randomly assigned to SOC-Outreach (n=54/97) returned (ATE: 14.1%; 95% CI: 0.6%, 27.6% and ATE: 11.4%; 95% CI: -2.2%, 24.9% for navigator and CCT+SMS compared with SOC-Outreach, respectively). Among participants without lapse on SMS, continuing SMS did not affect retention (n=122/180; 67.8% retained) versus stopping (n=151/209; 72.2% retained; ATE: -4.4%; 95% CI: -16.6%, 7.9%). Among participants without lapse on CCT, those continuing CCT had higher retention (n=192/230; 83.5% retained) than those stopping (n=173/287; 60.3% retained; ATE: 28.6%; 95% CI: 19.9%, 37.3%). Among 15 sequenced strategies, initial CCT, escalated to navigator if lapse occurred and continued if no lapse occurred, increased time in care (ATE: 7.2%, 95% CI: 3.7%, 10.7%) and viral suppression (ATE: 8.2%, 95% CI: 2.2%, 14.2%), the most compared with SOC throughout. Initial SMS escalated to navigator if lapse occurred, and otherwise continued, showed similar effect sizes compared with SOC throughout. CONCLUSIONS: Active interventions to prevent retention lapses followed by navigation for those who lapse and maintenance of initial intervention for those without lapse resulted in best overall retention and viral suppression among the strategies studied. Among those who remained in care, discontinuation of CCT, but not SMS, compromised retention and suppression. (Funded by National Institutes of Health grants R01 MH104123, K24 AI134413, and R01 AI074345; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02338739.).

Quantifying inequities in COVID-19 vaccine distribution over time by social vulnerability, race and ethnicity, and location: A population-level analysis in St. Louis and Kansas City, Missouri.

BACKGROUND: Equity in vaccination coverage is a cornerstone for a successful public health response to COVID-19. To deepen understanding of the extent to which vaccination coverage compares with initial strategies for equitable vaccination, we explore primary vaccine series and booster rollout over time and by race/ethnicity, social vulnerability, and geography. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed data from the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services on all COVID-19 vaccinations administered across 7 counties in the St. Louis region and 4 counties in the Kansas City region. We compared rates of receiving the primary COVID-19 vaccine series and boosters relative to time, race/ethnicity, zip-code-level Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), vaccine location type, and COVID-19 disease burden. We adapted a well-established tool for measuring inequity-the Lorenz curve-to quantify inequities in COVID-19 vaccination relative to these key metrics. Between 15 December 2020 and 15 February 2022, 1,763,036 individuals completed the primary series and 872,324 received a booster. During early phases of the primary series rollout, Black and Hispanic individuals from high SVI zip codes were vaccinated at less than half the rate of White individuals from low SVI zip codes, but rates increased over time until they were higher than rates in White individuals after June 2021; Asian individuals maintained high levels of vaccination throughout. Increasing vaccination rates in Black and Hispanic communities corresponded with periods when more vaccinations were offered at small community-based sites such as pharmacies rather than larger health systems and mass vaccination sites. Using Lorenz curves, zip codes in the quartile with the lowest rates of primary series completion accounted for 19.3%, 18.1%, 10.8%, and 8.8% of vaccinations while representing 25% of the total population, cases, deaths, or population-level SVI, respectively. When tracking Gini coefficients, these disparities were greatest earlier during rollout, but improvements were slow and modest and vaccine disparities remained across all metrics even after 1 year. Patterns of disparities for boosters were similar but often of much greater magnitude during rollout in fall 2021. Study limitations include inherent limitations in the vaccine registry dataset such as missing and misclassified race/ethnicity and zip code variables and potential changes in zip code population sizes since census enumeration. CONCLUSIONS: Inequities in the initial COVID-19 vaccination and booster rollout in 2 large US metropolitan areas were apparent across racial/ethnic communities, across levels of social vulnerability, over time, and across types of vaccination administration sites. Disparities in receipt of the primary vaccine series attenuated over time during a period in which sites of vaccination administration diversified, but were recapitulated during booster rollout. These findings highlight how public health strategies from the outset must directly target these deeply embedded structural and systemic determinants of disparities and track equity metrics over time to avoid perpetuating inequities in healthcare access.

Deliberation, Dissent, and Distrust: Understanding Distinct Drivers of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Hesitancy in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of safe and efficacious coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines, a significant proportion of the American public remains unvaccinated and does not appear to be immediately interested in receiving the vaccine. METHODS: In this study, we analyzed data from the US Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, a biweekly cross-sectional survey of US households. We estimated the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy across states and nationally and assessed the predictors of vaccine hesitancy and vaccine rejection. In addition, we examined the underlying reasons for vaccine hesitancy, grouped into thematic categories. RESULTS: A total of 459 235 participants were surveyed from 6 January to 29 March 2021. While vaccine uptake increased from 7.7% to 47%, vaccine hesitancy rates remained relatively fixed: overall, 10.2% reported that they would probably not get a vaccine and 8.2% that they would definitely not get a vaccine. Income, education, and state political leaning strongly predicted vaccine hesitancy. However, while both female sex and black race were factors predicting hesitancy, among those who were hesitant, these same characteristics predicted vaccine reluctance rather than rejection. Those who expressed reluctance invoked mostly "deliberative" reasons, while those who rejected the vaccine were also likely to invoke reasons of "dissent" or "distrust." CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine hesitancy comprises a sizable proportion of the population and is large enough to threaten achieving herd immunity. Distinct subgroups of hesitancy have distinctive sociodemographic associations as well as cognitive and affective predilections. Segmented public health solutions are needed to target interventions and optimize vaccine uptake.

Outcomes Associated With Social Distancing Policies in St Louis, Missouri, During the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: In the absence of a national strategy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many public health decisions fell to local elected officials and agencies. Outcomes of such policies depend on a complex combination of local epidemic conditions and demographic features as well as the intensity and timing of such policies and are therefore unclear. Objective: To use a decision analytical model of the COVID-19 epidemic to investigate potential outcomes if actual policies enacted in March 2020 (during the first wave of the epidemic) in the St Louis region of Missouri had been delayed. Design, Setting, and Participants: A previously developed, publicly available, open-source modeling platform (Local Epidemic Modeling for Management & Action, version 2.1) designed to enable localized COVID-19 epidemic projections was used. The compartmental epidemic model is programmed in R and Stan, uses bayesian inference, and accepts user-supplied demographic, epidemiologic, and policy inputs. Hospital census data for 1.3 million people from St Louis City and County from March 14, 2020, through July 15, 2020, were used to calibrate the model. Exposures: Hypothetical delays in actual social distancing policies (which began on March 13, 2020) by 1, 2, or 4 weeks. Sensitivity analyses were conducted that explored plausible spontaneous behavior change in the absence of social distancing policies. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hospitalizations and deaths. Results: A model of 1.3 million residents of the greater St Louis, Missouri, area found an initial reproductive number (indicating transmissibility of an infectious agent) of 3.9 (95% credible interval [CrI], 3.1-4.5) in the St Louis region before March 15, 2020, which fell to 0.93 (95% CrI, 0.88-0.98) after social distancing policies were implemented between March 15 and March 21, 2020. By June 15, a 1-week delay in policies would have increased cumulative hospitalizations from an observed actual number of 2246 hospitalizations to 8005 hospitalizations (75% CrI: 3973-15 236 hospitalizations) and increased deaths from an observed actual number of 482 deaths to a projected 1304 deaths (75% CrI, 656-2428 deaths). By June 15, a 2-week delay would have yielded 3292 deaths (75% CrI, 2104-4905 deaths)-an additional 2810 deaths or a 583% increase beyond what was actually observed. Sensitivity analyses incorporating a range of spontaneous behavior changes did not avert severe epidemic projections. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this decision analytical model study suggest that, in the St Louis region, timely social distancing policies were associated with improved population health outcomes, and small delays may likely have led to a COVID-19 epidemic similar to the most heavily affected areas in the US. These findings indicate that an open-source modeling platform designed to accept user-supplied local and regional data may provide projections tailored to, and more relevant for, local settings.

Preferences for COVID-19 vaccine distribution strategies in the US: A discrete choice survey.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the US has been immensely successful in vaccinating those who are receptive, further increases in vaccination rates however will require more innovative approaches to reach those who remain hesitant. Developing vaccination strategies that are modelled on what people want could further increase uptake. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To inform COVID-19 vaccine distribution strategies that are aligned with public preferences we conducted a discrete choice experiment among the US public (N = 2,895) between March 15 to March 22, 2021. We applied sampling weights, evaluated mean preferences using mixed logit models, and identified latent class preference subgroups. On average, the public prioritized ease, preferring single to two dose vaccinations (mean preference: -0.29; 95%CI: -0.37 to -0.20), vaccinating once rather than annually (mean preference: -0.79; 95%CI: -0.89 to -0.70) and reducing waiting times at vaccination sites. Vaccine enforcement reduced overall vaccine acceptance (mean preference -0.20; 95%CI: -0.30 to -0.10), with a trend of increasing resistance to enforcement with increasing vaccine hesitancy. Latent class analysis identified four distinct preference phenotypes: the first prioritized inherent "vaccine features" (46.1%), the second were concerned about vaccine "service delivery" (8.8%), a third group desired "social proof" of vaccine safety and were susceptible to enforcement (13.2%), and the fourth group were "indifferent" to vaccine and service delivery features and resisted enforcement (31.9%). CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies several critical insights for the COVID-19 public health response. First, identifying preference segments is essential to ensure that vaccination services meet the needs of diverse population subgroups. Second, making vaccination easy and promoting autonomy by simplifying services and offering the public choices (where feasible) may increase uptake in those who remain deliberative. And, third vaccine mandates have the potential to increase vaccination rates in susceptible groups but may simultaneously promote control aversion and resistance in those who are most hesitant.

Post-exposure prophylaxis for human immunodeficiency virus after sexual assault in a Midwestern U.S. emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Emergency departments (EDs) play an essential role in the timely initiation of HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for sexual assault victims. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of sexual assault victims evaluated and offered HIV PEP in an urban academic ED between January 1, 2005 and January 1, 2018. Data on demographics, comorbidities, nature of sexual assault, initial ED care, subsequent healthcare utilization within 28 days of initial ED visit, and evidence of seroconversion within 6 months of the initial ED visit were obtained. Predictors of subsequent ED visit and follow-up in the infectious diseases clinic were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Four hundred twenty-three ED visits met criteria for inclusion in this study. Median age at ED presentation was 25 years (IQR 21-34 years), with the majority of victims being female (95.5%), Black (63.4%), unemployed (66.3%) and uninsured (53.9%); psychiatric comorbidities (38.8%) and substance abuse (23.6%) were common. About 87% of the patients accepted HIV PEP (368 of 423 ED visits). Age (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-0.99, p = 0.025) and sexual assault involving >1 assailant (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.26-0.88, p = 0.018) were associated with lower likelihood of HIV PEP acceptance. Ten patients (2.7%) followed up with the infectious disease clinic within 28 days of starting HIV PEP; 70 patients (19%) returned to the ED for care during the same time period. Psychiatric comorbidity (OR 2.48, 95% CI 1.43-4.30, p = 0.001) and anal penetration (OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.10-3.70, p = 0.024) were associated with greater likelihood of repeat ED visit; female gender (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.11-0.85, p = 0.023) was associated with lower likelihood of repeat visit. Completion of HIV PEP was documented for 14 (3.3%) individuals. CONCLUSIONS: While ED patient acceptance of HIV PEP after sexual assault was high, infectious disease clinic follow-up and documented completion of PEP remained low. Innovative care models bridging EDs to outpatient clinics and community support services are needed to optimize transitions of care for sexual assault victims, including those receiving HIV PEP.

Understanding Drivers of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Racial Disparities: A Population-Level Analysis of COVID-19 Testing Among Black and White Populations.

BACKGROUND: Disparities in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) testing-the pandemic's most critical but limited resource-may be an important but modifiable driver of COVID-19 inequities. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Missouri State Department of Health and Senior Services on all COVID-19 tests conducted in the St Louis and Kansas City regions. We adapted a well-established tool for measuring inequity-the Lorenz curve-to compare COVID-19 testing rates per diagnosed case among Black and White populations. RESULTS: Between 14/3/2020 and 15/9/2020, 606 725 and 328 204 COVID-19 tests were conducted in the St Louis and Kansas City regions, respectively. Over time, Black individuals consistently had approximately half the rate of testing per case than White individuals. In the early period (14/3/2020 to 15/6/2020), zip codes in the lowest quartile of testing rates accounted for only 12.1% and 8.8% of all tests in the St Louis and Kansas City regions, respectively, even though they accounted for 25% of all cases in each region. These zip codes had higher proportions of residents who were Black, without insurance, and with lower median incomes. These disparities were reduced but still persisted during later phases of the pandemic (16/6/2020 to 15/9/2020). Last, even within the same zip code, Black residents had lower rates of tests per case than White residents. CONCLUSIONS: Black populations had consistently lower COVID-19 testing rates per diagnosed case than White populations in 2 Missouri regions. Public health strategies should proactively focus on addressing equity gaps in COVID-19 testing to improve equity of the overall response.

The Emerging Intersection Between Injection Drug Use and Early Syphilis in Nonurban Areas of Missouri, 2012-2018.

BACKGROUND: The national rate of syphilis has increased among persons who inject drugs (PWID). Missouri is no exception, with increases in early syphilis (ES), congenital syphilis, and PWID, especially in nonurban counties. METHODS: Disease intervention specialist records for ES cases in Missouri (2012-2018) were examined. Drug use was classified as injection drug use (IDU) (opioid or methamphetamine) or non-IDU (opioid, methamphetamine, or cocaine). Rates were compared based on residence, sex of sex partner, and drug use. RESULTS: Rates of ES in Missouri increased 365%, particularly in small metropolitan and rural areas (1170%). Nonurban areas reported a higher percentage of persons with ES who used injection drugs (12%-15%) compared with urban regions (2%-5%). From 2012 to 2018, women comprised an increasing number of ES cases (8.3%-21%); 93% of women were of childbearing age. Increasingly more women in rural areas with ES also reported IDU during this time (8.4%-21.1%). CONCLUSIONS: As syphilis increases in small metropolitan and rural regions, access to high-quality and outreach-based sexual health services is imperative. Healthcare policy to equip health departments with harm reduction services and drug treatment resources offers an opportunity to impact both syphilis increases as well as health outcomes associated with IDU.

Presenting to the Emergency Department Versus Clinic-Based Sexually Transmitted Disease Care Locations for Testing for Chlamydia and Gonorrhea: A Spatial Exploration.

BACKGROUND: Rates of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) including chlamydia and gonorrhea are increasing in the United States while public health funding for STD services is decreasing. Individuals seek care in various locations including the emergency department (ED). The objective of this study is to investigate whether there are more physically proximal clinic-based STD care locations available to individuals who present to the ED in a major metropolitan area. METHODS: Addresses of EDs, clinics, and patients 13 years or older in St. Louis City or County given a nucleic acid amplification test and assigned an STD diagnosis (n = 6100) were geocoded. R was used to analyze clinics within 5 radii from the patients' home address and assess missed clinic opportunities (open, no charge, with walk-in availability) for those living in an urban versus suburban area. RESULTS: In urban areas, 99.1% of individuals lived closer to a clinic than the ED where they sought STD services; in suburban areas, 82.2% lived closer to a clinic than the ED where they presented. In the region, 50.6% lived closer to the health department-based STD care location than the hospital where they presented. Up to a third of ED patient visits for STD care could have occurred at a clinic that was closer to the patient's home address, open, no charge, and available for walk-in appointments. CONCLUSIONS: Clinic availability is present for most of the individuals in our study. Clinics providing STD services can increase advertising efforts to increase public awareness of the services which they provide.