Total NT-proBNP, a novel biomarker related to recurrent atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Novel circulating biomarkers may help in understanding the underlying mechanisms of atrial fibrillation (AF), a challenge for AF management and prevention of cardiovascular (CV) events. Whether glycosylation affects the prognostic value of N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in AF is still unknown. OBJECTIVES: To test how deglycosylated total NT-proBNP, NT-proBNP and a panel of biomarkers are associated with: (1) recurrent AF, (2) first hospitalization for CV reasons. METHODS: A total of 382 patients of the GISSI-AF trial in sinus rhythm with a history of AF, echocardiographic variables, total NT-proBNP, NT-proBNP and nine additional biomarkers [Total N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (Total NT proBNP), N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), Angiopoietin 2 (Ang2), Bone morphogenic protein-10 (BMP10), Dickkopf-related protein-3 (DKK3), Endothelial cell specific molecule-1 (ESM1), Fatty acid-binding protein 3 (FABP3), Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF15), Insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-7 (IGFBP7) and Myosin binding protein C3 (MYPBC3)]. were assayed at baseline, 6 and 12 months under blind conditions in a laboratory at Roche Diagnostics, Penzberg, Germany. The associations between circulating biomarkers and AF at the 6- and 12-month visits, and their predictive value, were assessed in multivariable models with logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Biomarkers associations were modelled for 1SD increase in their level. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 365 days, 203/382 patients (53.1%) had at least one recurrence of AF and 16.3% were hospitalized for CV reasons. Total NT-proBNP, NT-proBNP, Ang2 and BMP10 showed the strongest associations with ongoing AF. Natriuretic peptides also predicted recurrent AF (total NT-proBNP: HR:1.19[1.04-1.36], p = 0.026; NT-proBNP: HR:1.19[1.06-1.35], p = 0.016; Ang2: HR:1.07[0.95-1.20], p = 0.283; BMP10: HR:1.09[0.96-1.25], p = 0.249) and CV hospitalization (total NT-proBNP: HR:1.57[1.29-1.90], p < 0.001 1.63], p = 0.097). CONCLUSIONS: The association of total NT-proBNP with the risk of AF first recurrence was similar to that of NT-proBNP, suggesting no influence of glycosylation. Analogous results were obtained for the risk of first hospitalization for CV reasons. Natriuretic peptides, Ang2 and BMP10 were associated with ongoing AF. Findings from the last two biomarkers point to a pathogenic role of cardiac extracellular matrix and cardiomyocyte growth in the myocardium of the right atrium and ventricle.

Circulating biomarkers and cardiac function over 3 years after chemotherapy with anthracyclines: the ICOS-ONE trial.

AIMS: A multicentre trial, ICOS-ONE, showed increases above the upper limit of normality of cardiac troponin (cTn) in 27% of patients within 12 months after the end of cancer chemotherapy (CT) with anthracyclines, whether cardiac protection with enalapril was started at study entry in all (prevention arm) or only upon first occurrence on supra-normal cTn (troponin-triggered arm). The aims of the present post hoc analysis were (i) to assess whether anthracycline-based treatment could induce cardiotoxicity over 36 month follow-up and (ii) to describe the time course of three cardiovascular biomarkers (i.e. troponin I cTnI-Ultra, B-type natriuretic peptide BNP, and pentraxin 3 PTX3) and of left ventricular (LV) function up to 36 months. METHODS AND RESULTS: Eligible patients were those prescribed first-in-life CT, without evidence of cardiovascular disease, normal cTn, LV ejection fraction (EF) >50%, not on renin-angiotensin aldosterone system antagonists. Patients underwent echocardiography and blood sampling at 24 and 36 months. No differences were observed in biomarker concentration between the two study arms, 'prevention' vs. 'troponin-triggered'. During additional follow-up 13 more deaths occurred, leading to a total of 23 (9.5%), all due to a non-cardiovascular cause. No new occurrences of LV-dysfunction were reported. Two additional patients were admitted to the hospital for cardiovascular causes, both for acute pulmonary embolism. No first onset of raised cTnI-Ultra was reported in the extended follow-up. BNP remained within normal range: at 36 months was 23.4 ng/L, higher (N.S.) than at baseline, 17.6 ng/L. PTX3 peaked at 5.2 ng/mL 1 month after CT and returned to baseline values thereafter. cTnI-Ultra peaked at 26 ng/L 1 month after CT and returned to 3 ng/L until the last measurement at 36 months. All echocardiographic variables remained stable during follow-up with a median LVEF of 63% and left atrial volume index about 24 mL/m2 . CONCLUSIONS: First-in-life CT with median cumulative dose of anthracyclines of 180 mg/m2 does not seem to cause clinically significant cardiac injury, as assessed by circulating biomarkers and echocardiography, in patients aged 51 years (median), without pre-existing cardiac disease. This may suggest either a 100% efficacy of enalapril (given as preventive or troponin-triggered) or a reassuringly low absolute cardiovascular risk in this cohort of patients, which may not require intensive cardiologic follow-up.

Sequencing of NOTCH1 gene in an Italian population with bicuspid aortic valve: Preliminary results from the GISSI OUTLIERS VAR study.

BACKGROUND: Bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) formation is genetically determined, with reduced penetrance and variable expressivity. NOTCH1 is a proven candidate gene and its mutations have been found in familial and sporadic cases of BAV. METHODS: 66 BAV patients from the GISSI VAR study were genotyped for the NOTCH1 gene. RESULTS: We identified 63 variants, in heterozygous and homozygous states. Fifty-two are common polymorphisms present in almost all patients. Eleven variants are new and never yet reported: two are non-synonymous substitutions, Gly540Asp in exon 10 and Glu851Gln in exon 16; one is in the 3'UTR region and seven in introns, one corresponds to a T allele insertion in intron 27. We selected four statistically noteworthy and seven new variants identified in six BAV patients and correlated them with clinical and demographic variables and with imaging and histological parameters. Preliminary data show that four were BAV patients with isolated stenosis in patients over 60 aged. These variants may correlate with a later need for surgery for the presence of stenosis and not aortic valve regurgitation or ascending aortic aneurysm. CONCLUSIONS: Completing the genotyping of 62 BAV patients we found 11 new variants in the NOTCH1 gene never yet reported. These findings confirm that the identification of new, clinically remarkable biomarkers for BAV requires a deeper genetic understanding of the NOTCH1 gene variants, which could be targeted by future diagnostic and therapeutic strategies.

Modes of death and prognostic outliers in chronic heart failure.

BACKGROUND: The impact of incident sudden cardiac death (SCD) on the predictive accuracy of prognostic risk scores for patients with chronic heart failure (HF) has rarely been examined. We assessed the relationship between estimated probability of death and modes of death in this population, as well as the predictors of death and survival in prognostic outliers. METHODS AND RESULTS: The MAGGIC 3-year probability of death was estimated in 6,859 participants of the GISSI-HF trial (mean age 67±11 years, 78% men, 91% with ejection fraction <40%, mean follow-up 3.5±1.3 years, observed mortality 28.4%). The incidence of SCD progressively decreased with increased probability of death, and occurred in 52.5% of patients estimated at low-risk (N = 61 with probability <14%) vs. in 23.5% of the high-risk ones (N = 375 with probability >56%, P < .0001). On the contrary, death from worsening HF was significantly more frequent in the latter group (19.7% vs. 46.1%, P < .0001). The overall predictive accuracy of the MAGGIC model improved after excluding deaths from SCD (AUC from 0.731 to 0.760, P = .0034). Among patients estimated at low-risk (N = 61 dead, 743 alive), independent predictors of death were older age, longer history of HF, higher serum uric acid and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The only predictor of survival in patients estimated at high-risk (N = 210 alive, 375 dead) was higher systolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: The MAGGIC risk score demonstrated its scarce ability to capture SCD, particularly in chronic HF patients estimated at low risk of death. Newer and better prognostic tools in the evolving horizon of HF are needed.

Dabigatran in patients with myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MANAGE): an international, randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS) increases the risk of cardiovascular events and deaths, which anticoagulation therapy could prevent. Dabigatran prevents perioperative venous thromboembolism, but whether this drug can prevent a broader range of vascular complications in patients with MINS is unknown. The MANAGE trial assessed the potential of dabigatran to prevent major vascular complications among such patients. METHODS: In this international, randomised, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited patients from 84 hospitals in 19 countries. Eligible patients were aged at least 45 years, had undergone non-cardiac surgery, and were within 35 days of MINS. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive dabigatran 110 mg orally twice daily or matched placebo for a maximum of 2 years or until termination of the trial and, using a partial 2-by-2 factorial design, patients not taking a proton-pump inhibitor were also randomly assigned (1:1) to omeprazole 20 mg once daily, for which results will be reported elsewhere, or matched placebo to measure its effect on major upper gastrointestinal complications. Research personnel randomised patients through a central 24 h computerised randomisation system using block randomisation, stratified by centre. Patients, health-care providers, data collectors, and outcome adjudicators were masked to treatment allocation. The primary efficacy outcome was the occurrence of a major vascular complication, a composite of vascular mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-haemorrhagic stroke, peripheral arterial thrombosis, amputation, and symptomatic venous thromboembolism. The primary safety outcome was a composite of life-threatening, major, and critical organ bleeding. Analyses were done according to the intention-to-treat principle. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01661101. FINDINGS: Between Jan 10, 2013, and July 17, 2017, we randomly assigned 1754 patients to receive dabigatran (n=877) or placebo (n=877); 556 patients were also randomised in the omeprazole partial factorial component. Study drug was permanently discontinued in 401 (46%) of 877 patients allocated to dabigatran and 380 (43%) of 877 patients allocated to placebo. The composite primary efficacy outcome occurred in fewer patients randomised to dabigatran than placebo (97 [11%] of 877 patients assigned to dabigatran vs 133 [15%] of 877 patients assigned to placebo; hazard ratio [HR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·55-0·93; p=0·0115). The primary safety composite outcome occurred in 29 patients (3%) randomised to dabigatran and 31 patients (4%) randomised to placebo (HR 0·92, 95% CI 0·55-1·53; p=0·76). INTERPRETATION: Among patients who had MINS, dabigatran 110 mg twice daily lowered the risk of major vascular complications, with no significant increase in major bleeding. Patients with MINS have a poor prognosis; dabigatran 110 mg twice daily has the potential to help many of the 8 million adults globally who have MINS to reduce their risk of a major vascular complication [corrected]. FUNDING: Boehringer Ingelheim and Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Treatment with insulin is associated with worse outcome in patients with chronic heart failure and diabetes.

AIMS: Up to one-third of patients with diabetes mellitus and heart failure (HF) are treated with insulin. As insulin causes sodium retention and hypoglycaemia, its use might be associated with worse outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined two datasets: 24 012 patients with HF from four large randomized trials and an administrative database of 4 million individuals, 103 857 of whom with HF. In the former, survival was examined using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for baseline variables and separately for propensity scores. Fine-Gray competing risk regression models were used to assess the risk of hospitalization for HF. For the latter, a case-control nested within a population-based cohort study was conducted with propensity score. Prevalence of diabetes mellitus at study entry ranged from 25.5% to 29.5% across trials. Insulin alone or in combination with oral hypoglycaemic drugs was prescribed at randomization to 24.4% to 34.5% of the patients with diabetes. The rates of death from any cause and hospitalization for HF were higher in patients with vs. without diabetes, and highest of all in patients prescribed insulin [propensity score pooled hazard ratio for all-cause mortality 1.27 (1.16-1.38), for HF hospitalization 1.23 (1.13-1.33)]. In the administrative registry, insulin prescription was associated with a higher risk of all-cause death [odds ratio (OR) 2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.87-2.19] and rehospitalization for HF (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.32-1.53). CONCLUSIONS: Whether insulin use is associated with poor outcomes in HF should be investigated further with controlled trials, as should the possibility that there may be safer alternative glucose-lowering treatments for patients with HF and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity: A multicenter randomised trial comparing two strategies for guiding prevention with enalapril: The International CardioOncology Society-one trial.

BACKGROUND: Troponin changes over time have been suggested to allow for an early diagnosis of cardiac injury ensuing cancer chemotherapy; cancer patients with troponin elevation may benefit of therapy with enalapril. It is unknown whether a preventive treatment with enalapril may further increase the benefit. METHODS: The International CardioOncology Society-one trial (ICOS-ONE) was a controlled, open-label trial conducted in 21 Italian hospitals. Patients were randomly assigned to two strategies: enalapril in all patients started before chemotherapy (CT; 'prevention' arm), and enalapril started only in patients with an increase in troponin during or after CT ('troponin-triggered' arm). Troponin was assayed locally in 2596 blood samples, before and after each anthracycline-containing CT cycle and at each study visit; electrocardiogram and echocardiogram were done at baseline, and at 1, 3, 6 and 12-month follow-up. Primary outcome was the incidence of troponin elevation above the threshold. FINDINGS: Of the 273 patients, 88% were women, mean age 51 ± 12 years. The majority (76%) had breast cancer, 3% had a history of hypertension and 4% were diabetic. Epirubicin and doxorubicin were most commonly prescribed, with median cumulative doses of 360 [270-360] and 240 [240-240] mg/m2, respectively. The incidence of troponin elevation was 23% in the prevention and 26% in the troponin-triggered group (p = 0.50). Three patients (1.1%) -two in the prevention, one in the troponin-triggered group-developed cardiotoxicity, defined as 10% point reduction of LV ejection fraction, with values lower than 50%. INTERPRETATION: Low cumulative doses of anthracyclines in adult patients with low cardiovascular risk can raise troponins, without differences between the two strategies of giving enalapril. Considering a benefit of enalapril in the prevention of LV dysfunction, a troponin-triggered strategy may be more convenient.

Design of a Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial to Assess Dabigatran and Omeprazole in Patients with Myocardial Injury after Noncardiac Surgery (MANAGE).

BACKGROUND: Worldwide approximately 200 million adults undergo major surgery annually, of whom 8 million are estimated to suffer a myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS). There is currently no trial data informing the management of MINS. Antithrombotic agents such as direct oral anticoagulants might prevent major vascular complications in patients with MINS. METHODS: The Management of Myocardial Injury After Noncardiac Surgery (MANAGE) trial is a large international blinded randomized controlled trial of dabigatran vs placebo in patients who suffered MINS. We used a partial factorial design to also determine the effect of omeprazole vs placebo in reducing upper gastrointestinal bleeding and complications. Both study drugs were initiated in eligible patients within 35 days of suffering MINS and continued for a maximum of 2 years. The primary outcome is a composite of major vascular complications for the dabigatran trial and a composite of upper gastrointestinal complications for the omeprazole trial. We present the rationale and design of the trial and baseline characteristics of enrolled patients. RESULTS: The trial randomized 1754 patients between January 2013 and July 2017. Patients' mean age was 69.9 years, 51.1% were male, 14.3% had a history of peripheral artery disease, 6.6% had a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, 12.9% had a previous myocardial infarction, and 26.0% had diabetes. The diagnosis of MINS was on the basis of an isolated ischemic troponin elevation in 80.4% of participants. CONCLUSION: MANAGE is the first randomized controlled trial to evaluate a potential treatment of patients who suffered MINS.

Red blood cell oleic acid levels reflect olive oil intake while omega-3 levels reflect fish intake and the use of omega-3 acid ethyl esters: The Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure trial.

The Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure (GISSI-HF) study reported benefits of n-3 fatty acid (FA) treatment on cardiovascular (CV) events, but the effects of treatment on a putative CV disease risk factor, the red blood cell (RBC) n-3 FA level (the omega-3 index), have not been examined in this context. We hypothesized that treatment with prescription omega-3 acid ethyl esters (O3AEE) would increase the omega-3 index to the proposed cardioprotective value of 8%. RBCs were collected from a subset of patients participating in the GISSI-HF study (n=461 out of 6975 randomized), at baseline and after 3 months of treatment with either an olive oil placebo or O3AEE (1 g/d). RBC FA levels were expressed as a percentage of total FA. Patients also reported their typical olive oil and fish intakes. RBC oleic acid levels were directly correlated with reported frequency of olive oil consumption, and the omega-3 index was correlated with reported fish intake (P for trends <0.001 for both). After treatment, the omega-3 index increased from 4.8±1.7% to 6.7±1.9% but was unchanged in the placebo group (4.7±1.7 to 4.8±1.5%) (P<.0001 for changes between groups). At 3 months, more patients reached the proposed target omega-3 index level of 8%-12% in the treated vs placebo group (22.6% vs. 1.3%, P<.0001), however, what omega-3 index levels were ultimately achieved after four years in this trial are unknown.

Efficacy and safety of LDL-lowering therapy among men and women: meta-analysis of individual data from 174,000 participants in 27 randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Whether statin therapy is as effective in women as in men is debated, especially for primary prevention. We undertook a meta-analysis of statin trials in the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' (CTT) Collaboration database to compare the effects of statin therapy between women and men. METHODS: We performed meta-analyses on data from 22 trials of statin therapy versus control (n=134,537) and five trials of more-intensive versus less-intensive statin therapy (n=39,612). Effects on major vascular events, major coronary events, stroke, coronary revascularisation and mortality were weighted per 1.0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol and effects in men and women compared with a Cox model that adjusted for non-sex differences. For subgroup analyses, we used 99% CIs to make allowance for the multiplicity of comparisons. FINDINGS: 46,675 (27%) of 174,149 randomly assigned participants were women. Allocation to a statin had similar absolute effects on 1 year lipid concentrations in both men and women (LDL cholesterol reduced by about 1.1 mmol/L in statin vs control trials and roughly 0.5 mmol/L for more-intensive vs less-intensive therapy). Women were generally at lower cardiovascular risk than were men in these trials. The proportional reductions per 1.0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol in major vascular events were similar overall for women (rate ratio [RR] 0.84, 99% CI 0.78-0.91) and men (RR 0.78, 99% CI 0.75-0.81, adjusted p value for heterogeneity by sex=0.33) and also for those women and men at less than 10% predicted 5 year absolute cardiovascular risk (adjusted heterogeneity p=0.11). Likewise, the proportional reductions in major coronary events, coronary revascularisation, and stroke did not differ significantly by sex. No adverse effect on rates of cancer incidence or non-cardiovascular mortality was noted for either sex. These net benefits translated into all-cause mortality reductions with statin therapy for both women (RR 0.91, 99% CI 0.84-0.99) and men (RR 0.90, 99% CI 0.86-0.95; adjusted heterogeneity p=0.43). INTERPRETATION: In men and women at an equivalent risk of cardiovascular disease, statin therapy is of similar effectiveness for the prevention of major vascular events. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, European Community Biomed Program.

Incremental value of left ventricular systolic and diastolic function to determine outcome in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: the echocardiographic substudy of the OASIS-6 trial.

BACKGROUND: The echocardiographic substudy of the OASIS-6 trial evaluated the prognostic implications of left ventricle (LV) systolic and diastolic dysfunction early postacute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in patients treated with fondaparinux versus usual care. METHODS: Comprehensive echocardiograms were performed a median of 6 days after the index STEMI in 528 patients, 258 randomized to fondaparinux and 270 to usual care (unfractionated heparin or placebo), to assess LV systolic and diastolic function, LV mass, and LV end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes. A total of 245 (46.4%) patients were followed up for 3 months and 283 (53.6%) for 6 months. Major cardiac events (MACE) were defined as the composite of death, reinfarction, heart failure, or cardiogenic shock and resuscitated cardiac arrest. RESULTS: Patients with LV ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 45% and restrictive diastolic function (RDF) were at greatly increased risk of MACE (hazard ratio [HR] = 8.85, 95% CI, 4.21­18.60) compared to patients with LVEF ≥ 45% and without RDF. RDF remained a strong predictor for MACE in patients with LVEF ≥ 45% (HR = 4.38, 95% CI, 1.52­12.60) and in multivariate models adjusted for LVEF, LV end-systolic volume, and clinical variables. CONCLUSION: In this large international trial, LV systolic and diastolic function, as determined by echocardiography early following STEMI, are incremental predictors of MACE. In addition, RDF is a strong independent predictor of MACE after STEMI across a broad range of LVEF.

Association of ADIPOQ variants and heart failure in an Italian population.

OBJECTIVES: Adiponectin has insulin-sensitizing, anti-inflammatory and anti-atherogenic properties. There are few and controversial data on the role of ADIPOQ variants in heart failure (HF) pathogenesis. We planned this large association study to investigate the potential association of four selected ADIPOQ polymorphisms with HF in a population of Italian origin. METHODS: We genotyped 1173 cases with symptomatic HF and 1136 controls for alleles rs17300539, rs266729, rs1501299 and rs2241766. Cases were patients enrolled in the GISSI-Heart Failure genetic sub-study, with a long-term follow up (median 3.9 years). Controls were blood donors with no history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease (CVD). Genotype and allele frequencies of the four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were compared between the two groups. RESULTS: Clinical characteristics were significantly different between HF patients and controls. No significant differences were reported in the allelic and genotypic distribution, with the exception of rs266729 G allele, which showed a significant association with an increased risk of HF [odds ratio (OR) = 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.07-1.48; p = 0.006). We divided the GISSI-HF population according to HF etiology (ischemic and nonischemic) and presence of diabetes. For rs266729 G allele, a significant association with HF was confirmed in both ischemic (OR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.06-1.56; p = 0.009) and nonischemic patients (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.02-1.42; p = 0.03) as well as in nondiabetic patients (OR = 1.25; 95% CI = 1.05-1.49; p = 0.012). rs2241766 G allele showed a significant reduction of risk of HF in nonischemic (OR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.62-0.95; p = 0.02) and diabetic patients (OR = 0.62; 95% CI = 0.45-0.84; p = 0.0025). CONCLUSIONS: We confirm the association between rs266729 G allele and an increased risk of HF and between rs2241766 G allele and decreased risk of HF. Our study extends the knowledge on the influence of ADIPOQ variants on CVD.

The effects of apixaban on hospitalizations in patients with different types of atrial fibrillation: insights from the AVERROES trial.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of apixaban, a novel oral factor Xa inhibitor, on the need for cardiovascular hospitalization. METHODS AND RESULTS: Our analysis is based on data from AVERROES, a randomized double-blind trial testing the efficacy and safety of apixaban against aspirin for the prevention of thrombo-embolism in 5599 atrial fibrillation (AF) patients unsuitable for vitamin K antagonist therapy. Hospitalizations were captured by dedicated case report forms and the outcome variable was time from randomization to the first hospitalization. Effects of treatment with apixaban on the rates of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular hospitalizations were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models. During a mean follow-up of 1.1 years, 800 patients were hospitalized at least once for cardiovascular reasons, 442 (15.4%/year) in the aspirin group, 358 (12.3%) in the apixaban group [hazard ratio (HR) 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69-0.92; P = 0.002]. The reduction in cardiovascular hospitalization in the apixaban arm was predominantly due to a reduction in hospitalization for strokes, but there were also fewer hospitalizations for other cardiovascular causes. Patients with paroxysmal AF were significantly more likely to be hospitalized for AF treatment, whereas more heart failure admissions occurred in patients with permanent AF. Assignment to apixaban was the only independent predictor for a reduction in hospitalization. Cardiovascular hospitalization was the strongest independent predictor of subsequent mortality (HR: 3.95, 95% CI: 3.06-5.09; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In AVERROES, patients on apixaban therapy were less likely to be hospitalized. This may have important consequences for patients' well-being and for healthcare resources. This trial is registered underClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00496769.

The Long-Term Multicenter Observational Study of Dabigatran Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation (RELY-ABLE) Study.

BACKGROUND: During follow-up of between 1 and 3 years in the Randomized Evaluation of Long-term Anticoagulation Therapy (RE-LY) trial, 2 doses of dabigatran etexilate were shown to be effective and safe for the prevention of stroke or systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation. There is a need for longer-term follow-up of patients on dabigatran and for further data comparing the 2 dabigatran doses. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients randomly assigned to dabigatran in RE-LY were eligible for the Long-term Multicenter Extension of Dabigatran Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (RELY-ABLE) trial if they had not permanently discontinued study medication at the time of their final RE-LY study visit. Enrolled patients continued to receive the double-blind dabigatran dose received in RE-LY, for up to 28 months of follow up after RE-LY (median follow-up, 2.3 years). There were 5851 patients enrolled, representing 48% of patients originally randomly assigned to receive dabigatran in RE-LY and 86% of RELY-ABLE-eligible patients. Rates of stroke or systemic embolism were 1.46% and 1.60%/y on dabigatran 150 and 110 mg twice daily, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-1.20). Rates of major hemorrhage were 3.74% and 2.99%/y on dabigatran 150 and 110 mg (hazard ratio, 1.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.53). Rates of death were 3.02% and 3.10%/y (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.19). Rates of hemorrhagic stroke were 0.13% and 0.14%/y. CONCLUSIONS: During 2.3 years of continued treatment with dabigatran after RE-LY, there was a higher rate of major bleeding with dabigatran 150 mg twice daily in comparison with 110 mg, and similar rates of stroke and death.

Thromboembolic event rate in paroxysmal and persistent atrial fibrillation: data from the GISSI-AF trial.

BACKGROUND: Few data on the thromboembolic (TE) risk of paroxysmal and persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) are available. This study aimed to assess the incidence of TE events in paroxysmal and persistent AF. METHODS: We performed a subset post hoc analysis of 771 patients with paroxysmal and 463 with persistent AF enrolled in the multicenter, prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled GISSI-AF trial - comparing the efficacy of valsartan versus placebo in preventing AF recurrences - where the choice of antithrombotic treatment was left to the judgment of the referring physician. TE and major outcome events were centrally validated. AF recurrences were detected by frequent clinic visits and a transtelephonic monitoring device with weekly and symptomatic transmissions. RESULTS: Eighty-five percent of patients had a history of hypertension, and the 7.7% had heart failure, left ventricular dysfunction, or both. The mean CHADS2 score was 1.41±0.84. TE and major bleeding events were observed at a low incidence among the overall population at 1-year follow-up (0.97% and 0.81%, respectively). The univariate and multivariable analyses revealed no statistically significant differences in the incidence of TE, major bleeding events or mortality in paroxysmal and persistent AF patients. TE events were more common among women than men (p=0.02). The follow-up examination showed under- or overtreatment with warfarin in many patients, according to guideline suggestions. Warfarin was more frequently prescribed to patients with persistent AF (p<0.0001) and patients with AF recurrences (p<0.0001). AF recurrences were noninvasively detected in 632 (51.2%) patients. In patients without AF recurrences, the TE event rate was 0.5% versus 1.74%, 1.28%, and 1.18% for those with only symptomatic, only asymptomatic or both symptomatic and asymptomatic AF recurrences, respectively, but the difference was not statistically significant, even after adjusting for warfarin treatment and the CHADS2 score (HR 2.93; CI 95%; 0.8-10.9; p=0.11). CONCLUSIONS: TE and major bleeding events showed a very low incidence in the GISSI-AF trial population, despite under- or overtreatment with warfarin in many patients. TE events had a similar rate in paroxysmal and persistent AF. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00376272.

Uric acid: a cardiovascular risk factor in patients with recent myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: To date uric acid (UA) is not considered a cardiovascular risk factor, although evidence about a relationship between UA and cardiovascular diseases has been reported. METHODS: Information from 10,840 patients enrolled in the GISSI-Prevenzione trial was used to evaluate the relationship between UA and risk for total mortality and cardiovascular events (CVE). UA levels were categorized in quintiles, as ≤ 4.5 (Q1), 4.6 to 5.3 (Q2), 5.4 to 6.0 (Q3), 6.1 to 6.8 (Q4) and >6.8 (Q5) mg/dL. Multivariable analysis was used to estimate the relative risks (HR) of outcome measures across categories of UA. The analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the net reclassification improvement (NRI), and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) tests were used to evaluate the incremental prognostic information of UA. RESULTS: During 36,802 person-years of follow-up, 974 deaths and 1120 cardiovascular events occurred. We found a statistically significant association between high UA and total mortality [HR, P value]: Q1 [reference category, 1.00]; Q2 [1.13, 0.267]; Q3 [1.06, 0.619]; Q4 [1.23, 0.063]; Q5 [1.63, <0.0001], test for trend P<0.0001. Similar results were obtained for cardiovascular events [HR, P value]: Q1 [reference category, 1.00]; Q2 [1.12, 0.271]; Q3 [1.19, 0.094]; Q4 [1.25, 0.031]; Q5 [1.38, 0.002], test for trend P=0.0009. The prognostic accuracy of prediction models for CVE was significantly increased by adding UA to classical cardiovascular risk factors (AUC P=0.0041; NRI P=0.0004; IDI P<0.0001). CONCLUSION: High UA may be considered a risk factor for death and CVE.

Predictors of mortality in 6975 patients with chronic heart failure in the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure trial: proposal for a nomogram.

BACKGROUND: We developed a prognostic model to assess the risk of all-cause mortality in patients with chronic heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined 6975 patients with chronic heart failure enrolled in the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure (GISSI-HF) trial (3.9 years follow-up). Multivariable Cox regression models were developed to predict mortality (1969 deaths). By stepwise selection, the full final model included 25 predictors. A reduced model, considering the most significant variables ranked according to the Wald χ(2) (P<0.0001) accounted for most of the prognostic information. Internal validation of the model was performed with bootstrap techniques. The discrimination ability of the reduced model constituted by 12 factors (concordance probability estimate, 0.693) was as good as the full final model (concordance probability estimate, 0.70). Among the first 12 independent risk factors emerging in the reduced model, the 3 most powerful predictors were older age, higher New York Heart Association class, and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. Other independent predictors that increased risk included lower left ventricular ejection fraction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, male sex, higher uricemia, lower body mass index, lower hemoglobin, and aortic stenosis. The reduced model was used to build a nomogram to estimate the risk of death in individual patients. In a subgroup of patients, the 2 well-known biomarkers (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide) emerged as the most powerful predictors of outcome. CONCLUSIONS: In a large contemporary population with chronic heart failure, this model offers good ability to assess the risk of death, confirming most of the risk factors that have emerged in recent trials. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00336336.

Wine consumption and risk of cardiovascular events after myocardial infarction: results from the GISSI-Prevenzione trial.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the association of wine intake with incident cardiovascular events (CVE) and total mortality after myocardial infarction (MI). METHODS: We used prospectively ascertained information among 11,248 Italian patients with recent MI enrolled in the GISSI-Prevenzione Trial. Usual wine consumption has been categorised as never/almost never, up to 0.5L/day, and >0.5L/day. Multiple imputation was used for missing values at baseline and during follow-up. We assessed adjudicated cumulative incidence of major CVE during 3.5years of follow-up and total mortality at long-term follow-up (7.3years), respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HR) first using data at baseline and then updated using time-varying covariates. RESULTS: During 37,021 person-years of follow-up, 1168 CVE occurred. Moderate wine intake at baseline was associated with significantly reduced risk of CVE (adjusted HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.76-0.99) as compared with non-drinkers. In time-updated analyses, results were virtually the same, though they were barely statistically not significant (adjusted HR 0.88; 95% CI 0.77-1.00). Wine intake was associated with lower risk of total mortality. In time-updated adjusted analyses, patients with wine consumption up to 0.5L/day (HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.74-0.92) and >0.5L/day (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.63-0.94) had lower mortality compared with non-drinkers (P for trend=0.0003). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with established heart disease, moderate consumption of wine seems to be associated with lower incidence of CVE and total mortality as compared with non drinkers.