RESUMEN
Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.
RESUMEN
RATIONALE: Dacryoconarids are extinct marine zooplankton known from abundant, globally distributed calcite microfossils in the Devonian, but their shell stable isotope composition has not been previously explored. Devonian stable isotope stratigraphy is currently limited to less common invertebrates or bulk rock analyses of uncertain provenance. As with Cenozoic planktonic foraminifera, isotopic analysis of dacryoconarid shells could facilitate higher-resolution, geographically widespread stable isotope records of paleoenvironmental change, including marine hypoxia events, climate changes, and biocrises. We explored the use of Dacryoconarid isotope stratigraphy as a viable method in interpreting paleoenvironments. METHODS: We applied an established method for determining stable isotope ratios (δ(13) C, δ(18) O values) of small carbonate microfossils to very well-preserved dacryoconarid shells. We analyzed individual calcite shells representing five common genera using a Kiel carbonate device coupled to a MAT 253 isotope ratio mass spectrometer. Calcite shell δ(13) C and δ(18) O values were compared by taxonomic group, rock unit, and locality. RESULTS: Single dacryoconarid calcite shells are suitable for stable isotope analysis using a Kiel-IRMS setup. The dacryoconarid shell δ(13) C values (-4.7 to 2.3) and δ(18) O values (-10.3 to -4.8) were consistent across taxa, independent of shell size or part, but varied systematically through time. Lower fossil δ(18) O values were associated with warmer water temperature and more variable δ(13) C values were associated with major bioevents. Dacryoconarid δ(13) C and δ(18) O values differed from bulk rock carbonate values. CONCLUSIONS: Dacryoconarid individual microfossil δ(13) C and δ(18) O values are highly sensitive to paleoenvironmental changes, thus providing a promising avenue for stable isotope chemostratigraphy to better resolve regional to global paleoceanographic changes throughout the upper Silurian to the upper Devonian. Our results warrant further exploration of dacryoconarid stable isotope proxy sensitivity, the isotopic contrast among dacryoconarids, other taxa, and bulk rock, as well as other potential dacryoconarid proxies (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, (87) Sr/(86) Sr, microlaser and ion microprobe isotope techniques, and clumped isotopes) for stratigraphic research.