Modelling the epidemiologic impact of achieving UNAIDS fast-track 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets in South Africa.

UNAIDS established fast-track targets of 73% and 86% viral suppression among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals by 2020 and 2030, respectively. The epidemiologic impact of achieving these goals is unknown. The HIV-Calibrated Dynamic Model, a calibrated agent-based model of HIV transmission, is used to examine scenarios of incremental improvements to the testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) continuum in South Africa in 2015. The speed of intervention availability is explored, comparing policies for their predicted effects on incidence, prevalence and achievement of fast-track targets in 2020 and 2030. Moderate (30%) improvements in the continuum will not achieve 2020 or 2030 targets and have modest impacts on incidence and prevalence. Improving the continuum by 80% and increasing availability reduces incidence from 2.54 to 0.80 per 100 person-years (-1.73, interquartile range (IQR): -1.42, -2.13) and prevalence from 26.0 to 24.6% (-1.4 percentage points, IQR: -0.88, -1.92) from 2015 to 2030 and achieves fast track targets in 2020 and 2030. Achieving 90-90-90 in South Africa is possible with large improvements to the testing and treatment continuum. The epidemiologic impact of these improvements depends on the balance between survival and transmission benefits of ART with the potential for incidence to remain high.

Prevalence of cryptococcal antigenuria at initial HIV diagnosis in KwaZulu-Natal.

OBJECTIVES: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends screening HIV-infected people for cryptococcal antigens to identify cryptococcosis, a major cause of AIDS-related deaths. As the burden of cryptococcosis is unknown in South Africa's KwaZulu-Natal province, we assessed the cryptococcal antigenuria prevalence among newly diagnosed HIV-infected adults there. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of newly diagnosed HIV-infected adults who received voluntary HIV testing in an out-patient clinic. Participants provided a urine specimen in a sterile container, and we performed testing with a WHO-endorsed rapid cryptococcal antigen lateral flow assay (Immy Inc., Norman, OK, USA) per the manufacturer's specifications. We assessed cryptococcal antigenuria prevalence among participants with CD4 counts < 200 cells/µL, and stratified results by CD4 count categories. RESULTS: Among 432 participants, the mean (± standard deviation) age was 36.1 ± 9.9 years and 172 (40%) were female. The overall estimated prevalence of cryptococcal antigenuria was 9.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 6.5-12.1%]. CD4 counts were available for 319 participants (74%); the median CD4 count was 75 cells/µL [interquartile range (IQR) 34-129 cells/µL]. Participants with a negative cryptococcal antigenuria screening test had a median CD4 count of 79 cells/µL (IQR 36-129 cells/µL), while participants with a positive cryptococcal test had a median CD4 count of 41 cells/µL (IQR 10-112 cells/µL). The estimated prevalence of cryptococcal antigenuria among participants with CD4 counts < 50 cells/µL was 12.5% (95% CI 7.0-20.1%), which was significantly higher than that among participants with CD4 counts of 50-200 cells/µL (4.8%; 95% CI 2.3-8.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Nearly 1 in 10 newly diagnosed HIV-infected adults with CD4 counts < 200 cells/µL in KwaZulu-Natal had evidence of cryptococcal antigenuria. Point-of-care CD4 count testing and cryptococcal antigen screening may rapidly identify cryptococcosis at the time of HIV diagnosis.

Linkage to care following community-based mobile HIV testing compared with clinic-based testing in Umlazi Township, Durban, South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to assess HIV prevalence, disease stage and linkage to HIV care following diagnosis at a mobile HIV testing unit, compared with results for clinic-based testing, in a Durban township. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study. We enrolled adults presenting for HIV testing at a community-based mobile testing unit (mobile testers) and at an HIV clinic (clinic testers) serving the same area. Testers diagnosed with HIV infection, regardless of testing site, were offered immediate CD4 testing and instructed to retrieve results at the clinic. We assessed rates of linkage to care, defined as CD4 result retrieval within 90 days of HIV diagnosis and/or completion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) literacy training, for mobile vs. clinic testers. RESULTS: From July to November 2011, 6957 subjects were HIV tested (4703 mobile and 2254 clinic); 55% were female. Mobile testers had a lower HIV prevalence than clinic testers (10% vs. 36%, respectively), were younger (median 23 vs. 27 years, respectively) and were more likely to live >5 km or >30 min from the clinic (64% vs. 40%, respectively; all P < 0.001). Mobile testers were less likely to undergo CD4 testing (33% vs. 83%, respectively) but more likely to have higher CD4 counts [median (interquartile range) 416 (287-587) cells/µL vs. 285 (136-482) cells/µL, respectively] than clinic testers (both P < 0.001). Of those who tested HIV positive, 10% of mobile testers linked to care, vs. 72% of clinic testers (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Mobile HIV testing reaches people who are younger, who are more geographically remote, and who have earlier disease compared with clinic-based testing. Fewer mobile testers underwent CD4 testing and linked to HIV care. Enhancing linkage efforts may improve the impact of mobile testing for those with early HIV disease.

Quantifying the risks and benefits of efavirenz use in HIV-infected women of childbearing age in the USA.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to quantify the benefits (life expectancy gains) and risks (efavirenz-related teratogenicity) associated with using efavirenz in HIV-infected women of childbearing age in the USA. METHODS: We used data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study in an HIV disease simulation model to estimate life expectancy in women who receive an efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral regimen compared with those who delay efavirenz use and receive a boosted protease inhibitor-based initial regimen. To estimate excess risk of teratogenic events with and without efavirenz exposure per 100,000 women, we incorporated literature-based rates of pregnancy, live births, and teratogenic events into a decision analytic model. We assumed a teratogenicity risk of 2.90 events/100 live births in women exposed to efavirenz during pregnancy and 2.68/100 live births in unexposed women. RESULTS: Survival for HIV-infected women who received an efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen was 0.89 years greater than for women receiving non-efavirenz-based initial therapy (28.91 vs. 28.02 years). The rate of teratogenic events was 77.26/100,000 exposed women, compared with 72.46/100,000 unexposed women. Survival estimates were sensitive to variations in treatment efficacy and AIDS-related mortality. Estimates of excess teratogenic events were most sensitive to pregnancy rates and number of teratogenic events/100 live births in efavirenz-exposed women. CONCLUSIONS: Use of non-efavirenz-based initial ART in HIV-infected women of childbearing age may reduce life expectancy gains from antiretroviral treatment, but may also prevent teratogenic events. Decision-making regarding efavirenz use presents a trade-off between these two risks; this study can inform discussions between patients and health care providers.

Screening for acute HIV infection in South Africa: finding acute and chronic disease.

BACKGROUND: The yield of screening for acute HIV infection among general medical patients in resource-scarce settings remains unclear. Our objective was to evaluate the strategy of using pooled HIV plasma RNA to diagnose acute HIV infection in patients with negative or discordant rapid HIV antibody tests in Durban, South Africa. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled patients with negative or discordant rapid HIV antibody tests from a routine HIV screening programme in an out-patient department in Durban with an HIV prevalence of 48%. Study participants underwent venipuncture for pooled qualitative HIV RNA, and, if this was positive, quantitative RNA, enzyme immunoassay and Western blot (WB). Patients with negative or indeterminate WB and positive quantitative HIV RNA were considered acutely infected. Those with chronic infection (positive RNA and WB) despite negative or discordant rapid HIV tests were considered to have had false negative rapid antibody tests. RESULTS: Nine hundred and ninety-four participants were enrolled with either negative (n=976) or discordant (n=18) rapid test results. Eleven [1.1%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.6-2.0%] had acute HIV infection, and an additional 20 (2.0%; 95% CI 1.3-3.1%) had chronic HIV infection (false negative rapid test). CONCLUSIONS: One per cent of out-patients with negative or discordant rapid HIV tests in Durban, South Africa had acute HIV infection readily detectable through pooled serum HIV RNA screening. Pooled RNA testing also identified an additional 2% of patients with chronic HIV infection. HIV RNA screening has the potential to identify both acute and chronic HIV infections that are otherwise missed by standard HIV testing algorithms.

The impact of HIV/HCV co-infection on health care utilization and disability: results of the ACTG Longitudinal Linked Randomized Trials (ALLRT) Cohort.

HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection places a growing burden on the HIV/AIDS care delivery system. Evidence-based estimates of health services utilization among HIV/HCV co-infected patients can inform efficient planning. We analyzed data from the ACTG Longitudinal Linked Randomized Trials (ALLRT) cohort to estimate resource utilization and disability among HIV/HCV co-infected patients and compare them to rates seen in HIV mono-infected patients. The analysis included HIV-infected subjects enrolled in the ALLRT cohort between 2000 and 2007 who had at least one CD4 count measured and completed at least one resource utilization data collection form (N = 3143). Primary outcomes included the relative risk of hospital nights, emergency department (ED) visits, and disability days for HIV/HCV co-infected vs HIV mono-infected subjects. When controlling for age, sex, race, history of AIDS-defining events, current CD4 count and current HIV RNA, the relative risk of hospitalization, ED visits, and disability days for subjects with HIV/HCV co-infection compared to those with HIV mono-infection were 1.8 (95% CI: 1.3-2.5), 1.7 (95% CI: 1.4-2.1), and 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) respectively. Programs serving HIV/HCV co-infected patients can expect approximately 70% higher rates of utilization than expected from a similar cohort of HIV mono-infected patients.

Routine, voluntary HIV testing in Durban, South Africa: correlates of HIV infection.

BACKGROUND: Routine HIV testing is increasingly recommended in resource-limited settings. Our objective was to evaluate factors associated with a new diagnosis of HIV infection in a routine HIV testing programme in South Africa. METHODS: We established a routine HIV testing programme in an out-patient department in Durban, South Africa. All registered adults were offered a rapid HIV test; we surveyed a sample of tested patients. RESULTS: During the 12-week study, 1414 adults accepted HIV testing. Of those, 463 (32.7%) were HIV-infected. Seven hundred and twenty (50.9%) were surveyed. Compared with married women, unmarried men were at the highest risk of HIV [odds ratio (OR) 6.84; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.45-23.55], followed by unmarried women (OR 5.90; 95% CI 3.25-10.70) and married men (OR 4.00; 95% CI 2.04-7.83). Age 30-39 years (compared with >or=50 years; OR 5.10; 95% CI 2.86-9.09), no prior HIV test (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.07-2.27) and an imperfect HIV knowledge score (OR 2.32; 95% CI 1.24-4.35) were also associated with HIV infection. CONCLUSION: In a routine HIV testing programme in South Africa, rates of previously undiagnosed HIV were highest among men, young and unmarried patients, and those with poorer HIV knowledge. Better interventions are needed to improve HIV knowledge and decrease HIV risk behaviour.

Late diagnosis of HIV infection at two academic medical centers: 1994-2004.

Over the last decade, there has been increased attention to the role of earlier HIV testing in the United States. Our objective was to determine if this has translated into changes in the proportion of inpatients with advanced disease at the time of initial HIV diagnosis. We identified inpatients discharged with a new diagnosis of HIV infection or AIDS between 1994 and 2004 at two academic medical centers. We examined trends in initial CD4 count at diagnosis over three time periods: 1994-1996, 1997-2000 and 2001-2004. Between 1994 and 2004, 235 inpatients were newly diagnosed with HIV infection or AIDS in the two centers. For the 217 patients with available CD4 count data, the median initial CD4 count was 41/microl (interquartile range 19-138/microl). Of the 217 patients, 184(85%) had CD4 < or =200/microl and 119/217 (55%) had CD4 < or =50/microl. There were no significant differences in median CD4 count by time period. A large majority of inpatients with newly diagnosed HIV infection at two academic medical centers between 1994 and 2004 had signs of advanced immunodeficiency. Over this recent 11-year period there was no evidence that inpatients with a new HIV diagnosis were identified at earlier stages of disease.

The long-term benefits of genotypic resistance testing in patients with extensive prior antiretroviral therapy: a model-based approach.

OBJECTIVES: Resistance testing in HIV disease may provide long-term benefits that are not evident from short-term data. Our objectives were to estimate the long-term effectiveness, cost and cost-effectiveness of genotype testing in patients with extensive antiretroviral exposure. METHODS: We used an HIV simulation model to estimate the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of genotype testing. Clinical data incorporated into the model were from NARVAL, a randomized trial of resistance testing in patients with extensive antiretroviral exposure, and other randomized trials. Each simulated patient was eligible for up to three sequential regimens of antiretroviral therapy (i.e. two additional regimens beyond the trial-based regimen) using drugs not available at the time of the study, such as lopinavir/ritonavir, darunavir/ritonavir and enfuvirtide. RESULTS: In the long term, projected undiscounted life expectancy increased from 132.2 months with clinical judgement alone to 147.9 months with genotype testing. Median survival was estimated at 11.9 years in the resistance testing arm vs 10.4 years in the clinical judgement alone arm. Because of increased survival, the projected lifetime discounted cost of genotype testing was greater than for clinical judgement alone (euro313,900 vs euro263,100; US$399,000 vs US$334,400). Genotype testing cost euro69,600 (US$88,500) per quality-adjusted life year gained compared with clinical judgement alone. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with extensive prior antiretroviral exposure, genotype testing is likely to increase life expectancy in the long term as a result of the increased likelihood of receiving two active new drugs. Genotype testing is associated with cost-effectiveness comparable to that of strategies accepted in patients with advanced HIV disease, such as enfuvirtide use.

Late presentation for HIV care in central Haiti: factors limiting access to care.

OBJECTIVE: Many patients with HIV infection present for care late in the course of their disease, a factor which is associated with poor prognosis. Our objective was to identify factors associated with late presentation for HIV care among patients in central Haiti. METHODS/DESIGN: Thirty-one HIV-positive adults, approximately 10% of the HIV-infected population followed at a central Haiti hospital, participated in this research study. A two-part research tool that included a structured questionnaire and an ethnographic life history interview was used to collect quantitative as well as qualitative data about demographic factors related to presentation for HIV care. RESULTS: Sixty-five percent of the patients in this study presented late for HIV care, as defined by CD4 cell count below 350 cells/mm3. Factors associated with late presentation included male sex, older age, patient belief that symptoms are not caused by a medical condition, greater distance from the medical clinic, lack of prior access to effective medical care, previous requirement to pay for medical care, and prior negative experience at local hospitals. Harsh poverty was a striking theme among all patients interviewed. CONCLUSIONS: Delays in presentation for HIV care in rural Haiti are linked to demographic, socioeconomic and structural factors, many of which are rooted in poverty. These data suggest that a multifaceted approach is needed to overcome barriers to early presentation for care. This approach might include poverty alleviation strategies; provision of effective, reliable and free medical care; patient outreach through community health workers and collaboration with traditional healers.

Impact of opportunistic diseases on chronic mortality in HIV-infected adults in Côte d'Ivoire.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate incidence rates of opportunistic diseases (ODs) and mortality for patients with and without a history of OD among HIV-infected patients in Côte d'Ivoire. METHODS: Using incidence density analysis, we estimated rates of ODs and chronic mortality by CD4 count in patients in a cotrimoxazole prophylaxis trial in Abidjan before the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era. Chronic mortality was defined as death without a history of OD or death more than 30 days after an OD diagnosis. We used Poisson's regression to examine the effect of OD history on chronic mortality after adjusting for age, gender, and current CD4 count. RESULTS: Two hundred and seventy patients (40% male, mean age 33 years, median baseline CD4 count 261 cells/microl) were followed up for a median of 9.5 months. Bacterial infections and tuberculosis were the most common severe ODs. Of 47 patients who died, 9 (19%) died within 30 days of an OD, 26 (55%) died more than 30 days after an OD, and 12 (26%) died with no OD history. The chronic mortality rate was 31.0/100 person-years for those with an OD history, and 11.1/100 person-years for those with no OD history (rate ratio (RR) 2.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.43 - 5.54). Multivariate analysis revealed that OD history remained an independent predictor of mortality (RR 2.15, 95% CI: 1.07 - 4.33) after adjusting for CD4 count, age and gender. CONCLUSIONS: Before the HAART era, a history of OD was associated with increased chronic HIV mortality in Côte d'Ivoire, even after adjusting for CD4 count. These results provide further evidence supporting OD prophylaxis in HIV-infected patients.

Prevention of human immunodeficiency virus-related opportunistic infections in France: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

A simulation model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease, which incorporated French data on the progression of HIV disease in the absence of antiretroviral therapy and on cost, was used to determine the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of different strategies for the prevention of opportunistic infections in French patients who receive highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Compared with use of no prophylaxis, use of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMZ) increased per-person lifetime costs from euro 185,600 to euro 187,900 and quality-adjusted life expectancy from 112.2 to 113.7 months, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of euro 18,700 per quality-adjusted life-year (euro/QALY) gained. Compared with use of TMP-SMZ alone, use of TMP-SMZ plus azithromycin cost euro 23,900/QALY gained; adding fluconazole cost an additional euro 54,500/QALY gained. All strategies that included oral ganciclovir had cost-effectiveness ratios that exceeded euro 100,000/QALY gained. In the era of HAART, on the basis of French data, prophylaxis against Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, toxoplasmic encephalitis, and Mycobacterium avium complex bacteremia is cost-effective. Prophylaxis against fungal and cytomegalovirus infections is less cost-effective than are other therapeutic options for HIV disease and should remain of lower priority.

Validity and responsiveness of the euroqol as a measure of health-related quality of life in people enrolled in an AIDS clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: Brief utility measures are needed in clinical trials in addition to existing descriptive measures of health-related quality of life (HRQOL). We examined the reliability and validity of the EuroQol (EQ-SD) and MOS-HIV and their responsiveness to HIV-related clinical events. METHODS: Subjects with advanced HIV disease (CD4 < 100) were enrolled in a randomized trial for CMV prophylaxis (n = 990). The EQ-5D includes a weighted sum of five domains (EQ-5D Index) and a visual analog scale (EQ-VAS). The MOS-HIV has 10 subscales and physical (PHS) and mental health summary scores (MHS). Construct validity of the EQ-5D was tested based on hypothesized relationships to subscales of the MOS-HIV. Relative precision and responsiveness to adverse experiences and opportunistic infections (Ols) were compared for the two instruments. RESULTS: Mean age of the patients was 38, 94% were male, 80% white, and 7% had injected drugs. Mean baseline scores for EQ-5D Index and EQ-VAS were 0.80 and 76.0, respectively, 28 and 4% reported maximum scores. Mean MOS-HIV subscales score ranged from 55 (role) to 84 (cognitive); mean PHS and MHS were 47.4 and 49.5, respectively. Correlations between MOS-HIV subscales and EQ-5D Index ranged from 0.45 (role) to 0.63 (pain); correlations with EQ-VAS ranged from 0.33 (cognitive) to 0.66 (health perceptions). Correlations between MOS-HIV PHS and MHS with EQ-5D Index were 0.61 and 0.58; and with EQ-VAS, 0.57 and 0.60, respectively. Responsiveness to adverse experiences was highest for MOS-HIV pain and PHS (effect sizes = 0.9 and 0.4); pain had the highest relative precision (2.4) for adverse experiences: EQ-VAS had the greatest relative precision (1.6) for developing an OI. CONCLUSION: In these patients with advanced HIV disease. EQ-5D showed good construct validity, but there may be a ceiling effect for its EQ-5D Index component. EQ-5D was less responsive to adverse events than the MOS-HIV. However, the EQ-VAS was most sensitive to developing an OI and is likely to be a useful measure of HRQOL for generating QALYs in cost-utility studies involving patients with advanced HIV disease.

Improving participation in HIV clinical trials: impact of a brief intervention.

PURPOSE: To determine if a brief intervention that provides information about AIDS clinical trials to HIV-infected patients at the initiation of primary care increases the participation of women, persons of color, and injection drug users (IDUs) in clinical trials. METHOD: 196 outpatients beginning HIV primary care at a municipal hospital were followed from September 1994 to April 1996. During the intake assessment, each patient met briefly with a research assistant who described the purpose, role, and availability of clinical trials. Contacts for further information about trials were given to patients who expressed interest. At the end of the 20-month period, enrollment rates of all patients, including women, persons of color, and IDUs, into clinical trials were compared with previously published enrollment rates of patients at the same hospital but prior to the development of this brief intervention. RESULTS: The characteristics of the 196 HIV-infected patients were: 27% women; 47% IDUs; 14% gay/bisexual men; and 76% persons of color. Overall enrollment in AIDS clinical trials was 14.8% during the 20-month follow-up period. There was no significant difference in participation rates between males and females (p =.20), whites and persons of color (p =.71), and IDUs compared with non-IDUs (p =.90), whereas previously published data had shown significantly higher enrollment rates among males, whites, and non-IDUs. CONCLUSION: Providing all HIV-infected patients with information about the meaning, role, and availability of AIDS clinical trials at the initiation of HIV primary care reduces differences in participation rates by gender, race, and history of drug use.

Positive Epstein-Barr virus heterophile antibody tests in patients with primary human immunodeficiency virus infection.

PURPOSE: To describe three cases of primary human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in patients who had laboratory studies consistent with infectious mononucleosis. SUBJECTS: We describe 3 patients who presented with a viral syndrome, had a positive heterophile antibody test, and were diagnosed with primary HIV infection. RESULTS: The results of Epstein-Barr virus serology studies in each of these patients were consistent with chronic, but not acute, Epstein-Barr virus infection. HIV antibody tests were negative, and HIV RNA was >500,000 copies/mL in each patient. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should recognize that a positive heterophile antibody test in the setting of an acute viral illness does not exclude the diagnosis of primary HIV infection, although reactivation of latent Epstein-Barr virus infection cannot be ruled out. Patients presenting with nonspecific viral syndromes should be assessed for HIV risk behaviors and tested for primary HIV infection when appropriate.

Cost-effectiveness of prenatal screening for postpartum thyroiditis.

Five percent of all pregnant women and 25% of pregnant women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) develop postpartum thyroiditis (PPT) during the first year after delivery. PPT has significant morbidity and can be predicted prenatally by the presence of thyroid peroxidase (TPO) antibody. Our objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of screening pregnant women for the TPO antibody versus the current strategy of no screening test or an alternative strategy of a thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) test 6 weeks postpartum. We performed cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision tree model that accounted for cases of PPT detected, medical outcomes of screening, and costs of screening and care. Hypothetical cohorts of 1000 pregnant women with uncomplicated pregnancies and 1000 pregnant women with IDDM were used to determine direct medical costs, quality-adjusted life years, and cases of PPT detected. The cost of testing 1000 pregnant women for TSH at the 6 week postpartum visit was $75,000, with an effectiveness of 995.2 quality-adjusted life years resulting in a cost-effectiveness ratio of $48,000 per quality-adjusted life year. Checking a TPO antibody was more effective (995.5 quality-adjusted life years) but also more expensive ($93,000). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the TPO antibody strategy was $60,000 per quality-adjusted life year. Results were most sensitive to changes in the test characteristics, incidence of disease, and percentage of women with PPT who were symptomatic. A separate analysis for women with IDDM resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $13,000 per quality-adjusted life year for the TSH strategy and $32,000 per quality-adjusted life year for the TPO strategy. Screening for PPT is likely to be reasonably cost-effective and should be considered for inclusion as part of routine pregnancy care.

Incidence of primary opportunistic infections in two human immunodeficiency virus-infected French clinical cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines for the prevention of opportunistic infections in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals have been developed on the basis of natural history data collected in the USA. The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of primary opportunistic infections in HIV-infected individuals in geographically distinct cohorts in France. METHODS: We conducted our study on 2664 HIV-infected patients from the Tourcoing AIDS Reference Centre and the hospital-based information system of the Groupe d'Epidémiologie Clinique du SIDA en Aquitaine enrolled from January 1987 to September 1995 and followed through December 1995. We estimated: (1) CD4-adjusted incidence rates of seven primary opportunistic infections in the absence of prophylaxis for that specific infection or any antiretroviral drugs other than zidovudine; and (2) CD4 lymphocyte count decline. RESULTS: The highest incidence rates for all opportunistic infections studied occurred in patients with CD4 counts < 200/microl. With CD4 counts < 50/microl, the most common opportunistic infections were toxoplasmic encephalitis (12.6 per 100 person-years) and Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (11.4 per 100 person-years). Mycobacterium tuberculosis was the least common opportunistic infection (< 5.0/100 person-years). Even with CD4 counts > 300/microl, cases of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and toxoplasmic encephalitis were reported. The mean CD4 lymphocyte decline per month was 4.6 cells/microl. There was a significant association between HIV risk behaviour and the incidence of cytomegalovirus infection, between calendar year and the incidence of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, toxoplasmic encephalitis and Candida esophagitis, and between geographical area and the incidence of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and cytomegalovirus infection. CONCLUSIONS: Geographical differences exist in the incidence of HIV-related opportunistic infections. These results can be used to define local priorities for prophylaxis of opportunistic infections.

Cost-effectiveness of earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy for uninsured HIV-infected adults.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to examine the societal cost-effectiveness and the impact on government payers of earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy for uninsured HIV-infected adults. METHODS: A state-transition simulation model of HIV disease was used. Data were derived from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study, published randomized trials, and medical care cost estimates for all government payers and for Massachusetts, NewYork, and Florida. RESULTS: Quality-adjusted life expectancy increased from 7.64 years with therapy initiated at 200 CD4 cells/microL to 8.21 years with therapy initiated at 500 CD4 cells/microL. Initiating therapy at 500 CD4/microL was a more efficient use of resources than initiating therapy at 200 CD4/microL and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $17,300 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, compared with no therapy. Costs to state payers in the first 5 years ranged from $5,500 to $24,900 because of differences among the states in the availability of federal funds forAIDS drug assistance programs. CONCLUSIONS: Antiretroviral therapy initiated at 500 CD4 cells/microL is cost-effective from a societal: perspective compared with therapy initiated later. States should consider Medicaid waivers to expand access to early therapy.

Cost effectiveness of human papillomavirus testing to augment cervical cancer screening in women infected with the human immunodeficiency virus.

PURPOSE: To determine the cost effectiveness of incorporating molecular testing for high-risk types of human papillomavirus into a cervical cancer screening program for women infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We developed a Markov model to simulate the natural history of cervical cancer precursor lesions in HIV-infected women. Probabilities of progression and regression of cervical lesions were conditional on transient or persistent infection with human papillomavirus, as well as stage of HIV and effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy. Incorporating data from prospective cohort studies, national databases, and published literature, the model was used to calculate quality-adjusted life expectancy, life expectancy, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for two main strategies: targeted screening-human papillomavirus testing is added to the initial two cervical cytology smears obtained after an HIV diagnosis and subsequent screening intervals are modified based on the test results; and universal screening-no testing for human papillomavirus is performed, and a single cytology screening interval is applied to all women. RESULTS: In HIV-infected women on anti-retroviral therapy, a targeted screening strategy in which cervical cytology screening was conducted every 6 months for women with detected human papillomavirus DNA, and annually for all others, cost $10,000 to $14,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained compared with no screening. A universal screening strategy consisting of annual cervical cytology for all women was 15% less effective and had a less attractive cost-effectiveness ratio. Targeted screening remained economically attractive in multiple sensitivity analyses, although when the overall incidence of cervical cancer precursor lesions was lowered by 75%, the screening interval for women with detected human papillomavirus DNA could be widened to 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Adding human papillomavirus testing to the two cervical cytology smears obtained in the year after an HIV diagnosis, and modifying subsequent cytology screening intervals based on the results, appears to be an effective and cost-effective modification to current recommendations for annual cytology screening in HIV-infected women.