RESUMEN
Background: Rennes, a midsize city in France, features many opportunities for active travel. City officials seek to increase walking and cycling by 2030 to improve public health. Physical inactivity, a leading risk factor for premature mortality around the globe, has been shown to be associated with many chronic diseases including heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and cancer. Methods: Using the 2018 household travel survey of Rennes residents, we apply the Health-Oriented Transportation statistical model to assess health impacts associated with population-level rates of walking and cycling. We consider two proposed mobility and climate objectives which outline sustainable transportation goals by 2030. These include a shift in transportation mode share to increase walking and cycling trips, as well as a broad reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) across the metropolitan area. Results: Our regression analysis demonstrated that factors of household car access and inner-city residency were predictors of prevalence (observed one-day proportion engaging in walking or cycling), participation (weekly proportion), and intensity (mean individual physical activity achieved through walking/cycling) of active travel. Age and education were additionally associated with prevalence. The 2030 mobility objective (mode share: 9% cycle, 35% walk) was associated with a reduction of 1,051 DALYs (disability-adjusted life-years), translating to $73 million USD ($23-$177) in averted costs. The climate objective (10% reduction in VMT) was associated with a reduction of 369 DALYs when replaced entirely by walking and 714 DALYs with cycling, translating to $26 million ($8-$62) and $50 million ($15-$121) saved, respectively. Conclusions: Rennes residents experience high participation in active travel, particularly those in the inner city. If residents achieve the city's active travel goals for 2030, there is potential for a large reduction in health burden and subsequent costs. Reaching these goals may require significant investment in transportation programming and infrastructure to improve active travel opportunities.
RESUMEN
Background: A growing number of cities, including Greater London, have set ambitious targets, including detailed policies and implementation plans, to reach global goals on sustainability, health, and climate change. Here we present a tool for a rapid assessment of the magnitude of impact of specific policy initiatives to reach these targets. The decision-support tool simultaneously quantifies the environmental and health impacts of specified selected policies. Methods: The 'Cities Rapid Assessment Framework for Transformation (CRAFT)' tool was applied to Greater London. CRAFT quantifies the effects of ten environmental policies on changes in (1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, (2) exposures to environmental hazards, (3) travel-related physical activity, and (4) mortality (the number of attributable deaths avoided in one typical year). Publicly available data and epidemiological evidence were used to make rapid quantitative estimates of these effects based on proportional reductions in GHG emissions and environmental exposures from current baseline levels and to compute the mortality impacts. Results: The CRAFT tool estimates that, of roughly 50,000 annual deaths in Greater London, the modelled hazards (PM 2.5 (from indoor and outdoor sources), outdoor NO 2, indoor radon, cold, overheating) and low travel-related physical activity are responsible for approximately 10,000 premature environment-related deaths. Implementing the selected polices could reduce the annual mortality number by about 20% (~1,900 deaths) by 2050. The majority of these deaths (1,700) may be avoided through increased uptake in active travel. Thus, out of ten environmental policies, the 'active travel' policy provides the greatest health benefit. Also, implementing the ten policies results in a GHG reduction of around 90%. Conclusions: The CRAFT tool quantifies the effects of city policies on reducing GHG emissions, decreasing environmental health hazards, and improving public health. The tool has potential value for policy makers through providing quantitative estimates of health impacts to support and prioritise policy options.