Optimal Transport System for Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

This study conducted cost utility analysis comparing 4 systems of transporting acute ischemic stroke patients in Hokkaido, Japan. Hypothetical patients were generated on a geographic information system, and their outcomes were estimated according to their transport time to hospitals administering tissue plasminogen activator and/or endovascular thrombectomy. The transport systems where a neurointerventionist traveled for earlier endovascular thrombectomy were most cost-effective in some rural areas, while direct transportation to comprehensive stroke centers was more cost-effective in other areas.

Flow cytometric analysis of CD34+ CD38- cells; cell frequency and immunophenotype based on CD45RA expression pattern.

INTRODUCTION: The CD34+ CD38- population in bone marrow includes hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells. Recently, in acute myeloid leukemia, the focus has shifted to flow cytometry analysis targeting CD34+ CD38- leukemic cells due to their effectiveness in minimal/measurable residual disease detection and prognosis prediction. Nevertheless, the immunophenotype and cell frequency of these cells in the bone marrow, in the absence of leukemic cells, remains unknown. We aimed to evaluate detailed characteristics of CD34+ CD38- cells in both normal and leukemic cells by flow cytometry. METHODS: We compared the cell frequency and immunophenotype of the CD34+ CD38- fraction in the following groups: patients with idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura and malignant lymphoma as controls (n = 17), post-treatment patients without abnormal blasts (n = 35), and patients with myeloid malignancies (n = 86). The comparison was based on the presence or absence of CD45RA expression, a marker commonly used to prospectively isolate lymphoid-primed cell populations within the CD34+ CD38- fraction. RESULTS: The CD34+ CD38- CD45RA+ cell population exhibited a significant expansion in bone marrow without leukemic cells 1 month after cord blood transplantation and in various type of myeloid malignancies, compared to the control group (p < 0.01). Continuous CD45RA expression and notable expansion of the CD34+ CD38- CD45RA- population were exclusively observed in myelodysplastic syndrome-related diseases. The CD34+ CD38- CD45RA+ population displayed frequent expression of various markers in both leukemic and non-leukemic cells, in contrast to the CD34+ CD38- CD45RA- population. CONCLUSIONS: The CD34+ CD38- fraction should be carefully evaluated considering the nature of normal hematopoietic precursor cells, their cell frequency and immunophenotype, including CD45RA expression pattern, for improving the accuracy of myeloid malignancy diagnosis.

Optimal allocation of physicians improves accessibility and workload disparities in stroke care.

BACKGROUND: Inequalities in access to stroke care and the workload of physicians have been a challenge in recent times. This may be resolved by allocating physicians suitable for the expected demand. Therefore, this study analyzes whether reallocation using an optimization model reduces disparities in spatial access to healthcare and excessive workload. METHODS: This study targeted neuroendovascular specialists and primary stroke centers in Japan and employed an optimization model for reallocating neuroendovascular specialists to reduce the disparity in spatial accessibility to stroke treatment and workload for neuroendovascular specialists in Japan. A two-step floating catchment area method and an inverted two-step floating catchment area method were used to estimate the spatial accessibility and workload of neuroendovascular specialists as a potential crowdedness index. Quadratic programming has been proposed for the reallocation of neuroendovascular specialists. RESULTS: The reallocation of neuroendovascular specialists reduced the disparity in spatial accessibility and the potential crowdedness index. The standard deviation (SD) of the demand-weighted spatial accessibility index improved from 125.625 to 97.625. Simultaneously, the weighted median spatial accessibility index increased from 2.811 to 3.929. Additionally, the SD of the potential crowdedness index for estimating workload disparity decreased from 10,040.36 to 5934.275 after optimization. The sensitivity analysis also showed a similar trend of reducing disparities. CONCLUSIONS: The reallocation of neuroendovascular specialists reduced regional disparities in spatial accessibility to healthcare, potential crowdedness index, and disparities between facilities. Our findings contribute to planning health policies to realize equity throughout the healthcare system.

Access to mechanical thrombectomy and ischemic stroke mortality in Japan: a spatial ecological study.

Background: Advances in stroke treatment have greatly improved outcomes; however, disparities in access to treatment might increase. Achieving equitable access to stroke treatment is a health policy challenge, as rapid treatment is essential for positive outcomes. This ecological cross-sectional study aimed to determine the relationship between the disparities in spatial accessibility to mechanical thrombectomy (SAMT) and stroke mortality rates in Japan, hypothesizing that disparities in SAMT may increase the differences in stroke mortality between regions. Methods: We used the average number of ischemic stroke (IS) deaths between 2020 and 2021 as the response variable; and SAMT, medical resources, and socioeconomic characteristics of each municipality as explanatory variables. A conditional autoregressive model was used to examine the association between the risk of stroke mortality and SAMT. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was mapped to understand the nationwide disparities in stroke mortality risk. Results: The median number of IS deaths was 17.5 persons per year in the municipalities (2020 to 2021). The study also found that municipalities with low SAMT were located in the northern part of Japan. The non-spatial regression model results indicated that poor accessibility, a small proportion of bachelor's degrees or higher, and a high proportion of workers in secondary industries were related to high IS mortality. Three models were evaluated using spatial analysis; Model 1 with accessibility indicators alone, Model 2 with medical resources added to Model 1, and Model 3 with socioeconomic characteristics added to Model 2. In Models 1 and 2, the population-weighted spatial accessibility index (PWSAI) showed a significant negative relationship with stroke mortality. However, this was not evident in Model 3. Mapping using Model 3 showed that the high-risk areas were predominantly located in northern Japan, excluding Hokkaido. Conclusion: Access to mechanical thrombectomy was estimated, and regional differences were observed. The relationship between accessibility and IS mortality is unknown; however, regardless of accessibility, municipalities with a high proportion of workers in secondary industries and a small proportion with bachelor's degrees or above are at risk of death from stroke.

Regional assessment of medical care provision system by principal component analysis.

Introduction: The Japanese government has promoted policies ensuring standardized medical care across the secondary medical care areas (SMCAs); however, these efforts have not been evaluated, making the current conditions unclear. Multidimensional indicators could identify these differences; thus, this study examined the regional characteristics of the medical care provision system for 21 SMCAs in Hokkaido, Japan, and the changes from 1998 to 2018. Materials and Methods: This study evaluated the characteristics of SMCAs by principal component analysis using multidimensional data related to the medical care provision system. Factor loadings and principal component scores were calculated, with the characteristics of each SMCA visually expressed using scatter plots. Additionally, data from 1998 to 2018 were analyzed to clarify the changes in SMCAs' characteristics. Results: The primary and secondary principal components were Medical Resources and Geographical Factors, respectively. The Medical Resources components included the number of hospitals, clinics, and doctors, and an area's population of older adults, accounting for 65.28% of the total variance. The Geographical Factors components included the number of districts without doctors and the population and a land area of these districts, accounting for 23.20% of the variance. The accumulated proportion of variance was 88.47%. From 1998 to 2018, the area with the highest increase in Medical Resources was Sapporo, with numerous initial medical resources (-9.283 to -10.919). Discussion: Principal component analysis summarized multidimensional indicators and evaluated SMCAs in this regional assessment. This study categorized SMCAs into four quadrants based on Medical Resources and Geographical Factors. Additionally, the difference in principal component scores between 1998 and 2018 emphasized the expanding gap in the medical care provision system among the 21 SMCAs.

Regional disparity in the provision of rehabilitation services using the open data from the Japanese national claims database: an ecological study.

OBJECTIVES: There are few reports on regional differences in the supply/utilisation balance and provision of rehabilitation services. This study analysed those regional differences in Japan to help policymakers provide more uniform and efficient rehabilitation services and optimally allocate related resources. DESIGN: An ecological study. SETTING: 47 prefectures and 9 regions in Japan in 2017. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary measures were 'supply/utilisation (S/U) ratio', calculated by dividing rehabilitation supply converted to service units, by rehabilitation utilisation and 'utilisation/expected utilisation (U/EU) ratio', calculated by dividing utilisation by EU. The EU was defined as utilisation expected from the demography in each area. Data required to calculate these indicators were collected from open sources such as the National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups of Japan Open Data Japan. RESULTS: The S/U ratios were higher in Shikoku, Kyusyu, Tohoku and Hokuriku regions, and lower in Kanto and Tokai regions. The number of rehabilitation providers per population was higher mostly in the western part of Japan and lower mostly in the eastern part. The U/EU ratios were also higher mostly in the western part, and lower mostly in the eastern part such as Tohoku and Hokuriku regions. The same trend was seen for cerebrovascular disease and musculoskeletal disorder rehabilitation, which accounted for approximately 84% of rehabilitation services. For disuse syndrome rehabilitation, such a trend did not exist, and the U/EU ratio differed by prefectures. CONCLUSIONS: The large surplus in rehabilitation supply in the western part was attributed to the greater number of providers, while the smaller surplus in Kanto and Tokai regions was due to the smaller amount of supply. The number of rehabilitation services used was lesser in the eastern part such as Tohoku and Hokuriku regions, indicating regional differences in the provision of rehabilitation services.

Cost-effectiveness of seven-days-per-week rehabilitation schedule for acute stroke patients.

BACKGROUND: Rehabilitation is an essential medical service for patients who have suffered acute stroke. Although the effectiveness of 7-days-per-week rehabilitation schedule has been studied in comparison with 5- or 6-days-per-week rehabilitation schedule, its cost-effectiveness has not been analyzed. In this research, to help formulate more cost-effective medical treatments for acute stroke patients, we analyzed the cost-effectiveness of 7-days-per-week rehabilitation for acute stroke from public health payer's perspective, and public healthcare and long-term care payer's perspective in Japan. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness of 7-days-per-week rehabilitation for acute stroke patients was analyzed based on the result from a previous study using a Japanese database examining the efficacy of 7-days-per-week rehabilitation. Cost utility analysis was conducted by comparing 7-days-per-week rehabilitation with 5- or 6-days-per-week rehabilitation, with its main outcome incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) calculated by dividing estimated incremental medical and long-term care costs by incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALY). The costs were estimated using the Japanese fee table and from published sources. The time horizon was 5 years, and Markov modeling was used for the analysis. RESULTS: The ICER was $6339/QALY from public health payer's perspective, lower than 5,000,000 Yen/QALY (approximately US$37,913), which was the willingness-to-pay used for the cost-effectiveness evaluation in Japan. The 7-day-per-week rehabilitation was dominant from public healthcare and long-term care payer's perspective. The result of sensitivity analysis confirmed the results. CONCLUSION: The results indicated that 7-days-per-week rehabilitation for acute stroke rehabilitation was likely to be cost-effective.

Spatial-temporal analysis of cerebral infarction mortality in Hokkaido, Japan: an ecological study using a conditional autoregressive model.

BACKGROUND: Accessibility to stroke treatments is a challenge that depends on the place of residence. However, recent advances in medical technology have improved health outcomes. Nevertheless, the geographic heterogeneity of medical resources may increase regional disparities. Therefore, evaluating spatial and temporal influences of the medical system on regional outcomes and advanced treatment of cerebral infarction are important from a health policy perspective. This spatial and temporal study aims to identify factors associated with mortality and to clarify regional disparities in cerebral infarction mortality at municipality level. METHODS: This ecological study used public data between 2010 and 2020 from municipalities in Hokkaido, Japan. We applied spatial and temporal condition autoregression analysis in a Bayesian setting, with inference based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The response variable was the number of deaths due to cerebral infarction (ICD-10 code: I63). The explanatory variables were healthcare accessibility and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: The large number of emergency hospitals per 10,000 people (relative risk (RR) = 0.906, credible interval (Cr) = 0.861 to 0.954) was associated with low mortality. On the other hand, the large number of general hospitals per 10,000 people (RR = 1.123, Cr = 1.068 to 1.178) and longer distance to primary stroke centers (RR = 1.064, Cr = 1.014 to 1.110) were associated with high mortality. The standardized mortality ratio decreased from 2010 to 2020 in Hokkaido by approximately 44%. Regional disparity in mortality remained at the same level from 2010 to 2015, after which it narrowed by approximately 5% to 2020. After mapping, we identified municipalities with high mortality rates that emerged in Hokkaido's central and northeastern parts. CONCLUSION: Cerebral infarction mortality rates and the disparity in Hokkaido improved during the study period (2010-2020). This study emphasized that healthcare accessibility through places such as emergency hospitals and primary stroke centers was important in determining cerebral infarction mortality at the municipality level. In addition, this study identified municipalities with high mortality rates that require healthcare policy changes. The impact of socioeconomic factors on stroke is a global challenge, and improving access to healthcare may reduce disparities in outcomes.

ERRATUM: Differences in spatial patterns of long-term care depending on severity in Hokkaido, Japan.

Due to a mistake, the authors' affiliations were incorrectly reported in this article, published in Geospatial Health in 2022 (DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1077 - PMID: 35579241). The correct affiliations appear above. Geospatial Health DOI: 10.4081/gh.2022.1137.

Potential crowdedness of mechanical thrombectomy and cerebral infarction mortality in Japan: Application of inverted two-step floating catchment area method.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate a stroke medical delivery system based on population coverage and the potential crowdedness index (PCI) of mechanical thrombectomy and investigate the relationship between PCI and cerebral infarction mortality in Japan. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study defined 662 facilities and 1605 neurointerventionalists as supply, population aged 55 years or older as demand, and set the reachable area for demand as 120 min in driving time. Multiple regression analysis adjusted for spatial autocorrelation was used to examine the relationship between PCI and cerebral infarction mortality. RESULTS: In the 2020 data, 99% of the population aged 55 years or older had access to mechanical thrombectomy (≤120 min), and the PCI ranged from 5876 to 129838, with a median of 30426. From 2020 to 2035, the PCI is estimated to increase (30426 to 32510), decreasing after 2035 (32510 to 29469). The PCI distribution exhibited geographical heterogeneity. High PCI values emerged in eastern Japan. According to regression analysis, the increase in PCI by 1% led to an increase of 0.13% in standardized mortality ratio of cerebral infarction in men. However, PCI did not significantly correlate with cerebral infarction mortality in women. CONCLUSIONS: PCI for hospitals based on supply and demand was geographically heterogeneous in Japan. Optimization of PCI contributes equalization of mechanical thrombectomy provision system and may improve cerebral infarction mortality.

Differences in spatial patterns of long-term care depending on severity in Hokkaido, Japan.

The increasing demand for long-term care (LTC) among the ageing population is a serious problem worldwide, which has greatly increased also in Japan since the introduction of the LTC insurance system there. Since there is a difference between insurers with respect to the proportion of people needing LTC, this study aimed at clarifying the spatial patterns of LTC. Insurer (n=156) LTC data for the period 2012-2019 were obtained from Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare and those needing LTC were classified into three classes: total, mild and severe with ageand sex-adjusted proportions needing LTC. Global and local Moran’s I statistics were calculated for each 2-year period to clarify the trends of global and local spatial clusters. From 2012 to 2019, the mean proportion of mild class cases increased (10.6% to 11.6%), whereas that of severe class cases decreased slightly (5.9% to 5.7%). The spatial pattern of the proportion of each class revealed positive spatial autocorrelation. Based on analysis by local Moran’s I, differences in spatial patterns were emphasised between the mild and severe classes. In Hokkaido, High-High clusters of mild cases were identified in the central and southern parts and severe ones in the northern and southern parts. Spatial patterns differed depending on the LTC class. Some insurers had distinctly higher or lower certification rates than those of their neighbourhoods.

Identification of an asymptomatic Shwachman-Bodian-Diamond syndrome mutation in a patient with acute myeloid leukemia.

Shwachman-Diamond syndrome (SDS) is an autosomal recessive inherited disorder characterized by bone marrow failure, exocrine pancreatic dysfunction, and skeletal abnormalities. SDS is typically caused by a pathogenic mutation in the Shwachman-Bodian-Diamond Syndrome (SBDS) gene. Patients with SDS have an increased risk of developing acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndromes. We identified germline biallelic SBDS mutations (p.K62X and p.I167M) in a 50-year-old AML patient who had never experienced the typical symptoms of SDS. The K62X mutation is one of the most common pathogenic mutations, whereas the significance of the I167M mutation was unclear. Based on cellular experiments, we concluded that the I167M mutation contributed to the development of AML, and chemotherapy including topoisomerase inhibitors, which induce DNA double-strand breaks, may have been toxic to this patient. Our experience indicates that some asymptomatic Shwachman-Bodian-Diamond syndrome mutations contribute to the development of leukemia, and that careful treatment selection may be warranted for patients harboring these mutations.

Analyzing Cost-Effectiveness of Allocating Neurointerventionist for Drive and Retrieve System for Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke.

OBJECTIVES: There are regional disparities in implementation rates of endovascular thrombectomy due to time and resource constraints such as endovascular thrombectomy specialists. In Hokkaido, Japan, Drive and Retrieve System (DRS), where endovascular thrombectomy specialists perform early endovascular thrombectomies by traveling from the facilities where they normally work to facilities closer to the patient. This study analyzed the cost-effectiveness of allocating a endovascular thrombectomy specialist for DRS to treat stroke patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: he number of ischemic stroke patients expected to receive endovascular thrombectomy in Hokkaido in 2015 was estimated. It was assumed that an additional neutointerventionist was allocated for DRS. The analysis was performed from the government's perspective, which includes medical and nursing-care costs, and the personnel cost for endovascular thrombectomy specialist. The analysis was conducted comparing the current scenario, where patients received endovascular thrombectomy in facilities where endovascular thrombectomy specialists normally work, with the scenario with DRS within 60 min drive distance. Patient transport time was analyzed using geographic information system, and patient severity was estimated from the transport time. The primary outcome was incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in each medical area which was calculated from the incremental costs and the incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), estimated from patient severity using published literature. The entire process was repeated 100 times. RESULTS: DRS was most cost-effective in Kamikawachubu area, where the ICER was $14,173±16,802/QALY, significantly lower than the threshold that the Japanese guideline suggested. CONCLUSIONS: Since DRS was cost-effective in Kamikawachubu area, the area should be prioritized when a endovascular thrombectomy specialist for DRS is allocated as a policy.

[Investigation of Preferences in Working Environment of Students for Maintaining Uniform Geographical Distribution of Radiological Technologists].

PURPOSE: This study was designed to assess working environment preferences of students in the Department of Radiological Technology using conjoint analysis for establishing an efficient medical system. METHOD: We carried a questionnaire survey on working environment preferences for 196 students in the Department of Radiological Technology in Japan. We defined eight characteristics for virtual medical facilities as follows: presence of colleagues who can be consulted, employment status, number of night shift per month, academic meeting participation, number of hospital beds, possession of nuclear medicine imaging systems and radiation therapy systems, location of medical facilities, and change rate in annual income. A total of 18 virtual medical facilities were selected by an orthogonal array table using above-mentioned characteristics. The acquired data by the pairwise comparison method were analyzed by conjoint analysis. Marginal rates of substitution that represent students' preferences were also calculated. RESULT: The factors that influenced their preferences were the following: placement of medical facilities in great city, presence of colleagues who can be consulted, employment status is not non-regular employment, set up of nuclear medicine imaging systems and radiation therapy systems, the number of night shift is twice per month, and attendances at academic meetings. CONCLUSION: In summary, students in the Department of Radiological Technology tend to prefer the facilities with regular employment, great city, presence of colleagues who can be consulted, and possession of nuclear medicine imaging systems and/or radiation therapy systems.

A Bayesian Network-Based Browsing Model for Patients Seeking Radiology-Related Information on Hospital Websites: Development and Usability Study.

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of people are visiting hospital websites to seek better services and treatments compared to the past. It is therefore important for hospitals to develop websites to meet the needs of their patients. However, few studies have investigated whether and how the current hospital websites meet the patient's needs. Above all, in radiation departments, it may be difficult for patients to obtain the desired information regarding modality and diagnosis because such information is subdivided when described on a website. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to suggest a hospital website search behavior model by analyzing the browsing behavior model using a Bayesian network from the perspective of one-to-one marketing. METHODS: First, we followed the website access log of Hokkaido University Hospital, which was collected from September 1, 2016, to August 31, 2017, and analyzed the access log using Google Analytics. Second, we specified the access records related to radiology from visitor browsing pages and keywords. Third, using these resources, we structured 3 Bayesian network models based on specific patient needs: radiotherapy, nuclear medicine examination, and radiological diagnosis. Analyzing each model, this study considered why some visitors could not reach their desired page and improvements to meet the needs of visitors seeking radiology-related information. RESULTS: The radiotherapy model showed that 74% (67/90) of the target visitors could reach their requested page, but only 2% (2/90) could reach the Center page where inspection information, one of their requested pages, is posted. By analyzing the behavior of the visitors, we clarified that connecting with the radiotherapy and radiological diagnosis pages is useful for increasing the proportion of patients reaching their requested page. CONCLUSIONS: We proposed solutions for patient web-browsing accessibility based on a Bayesian network. Further analysis is necessary to verify the accuracy of the proposed model in comparison to other models. It is expected that information provided on hospital websites will be improved using this method.

Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacists play an important role in promoting people's health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population's needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies to consider an optimal distribution of pharmacists. METHODS: The future supply of pharmacists working in pharmacies in Hokkaido is projected using system dynamics modeling, according to their career path. The demand is projected based on the number of prescriptions, sourced from publicly available sources. The analysis period is 2015-2040. The estimated demand is converted into the number of pharmacists and the sufficiency is evaluated using sufficiency ratio (supply/demand ratio). Sensitivity analyses of the sufficiency ratio were conducted to estimate the effects of changes in parameters such as national exam pass rate, enrollments, attrition rates, the number of prescriptions per pharmacist, and diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists. RESULTS: The projected supply, in 2025 and 2040, is 1.24 and 1.56 times, respectively, as that in 2015 and the demand is 1.11 and 0.98 times, respectively. In 2015, although the sufficiency ratio in Hokkaido overall is 1.19, the ratios are higher in urban medical areas and lower than 1 in rural medical areas, such as Minamihiyama, Emmon, and Nemuro. By 2040, the sufficiency ratios are greater than 1 for all areas except for Emmon and higher than 2 in some areas. The sensitivity analyses found that the sufficiency ratio was most sensitive to diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists and the number of prescriptions per pharmacist. CONCLUSION: Optimal distribution should be considered, as the results reveal a possible shortage in the number of pharmacists in rural medical areas in 2015-2025. Conversely, as the demand is projected to decrease after 2025 with a population decrease, future supply should be determined in order not to cause an oversupply after 2025. Refinements of the projection model should be conducted since the related factors such as the roles of pharmacists will change over time.

Characteristics of Type-2 Diabetics Who are Prone to High-Cost Medical Care Expenses by Bayesian Network.

Objective: This study aims to determine the characteristics of Type 2 diabetic patients who are more likely to cause high-cost medical expenses using the Bayesian network model. Methods: The 2011-2015 receipt data of Iwamizawa city, Japan were collected from the National Health Insurance Database. From the record, we identified patients with Type 2 diabetes with the following items: age, gender, area, number of days provided medical services, number of diseases, number of medical examinations, annual healthcare expenditures, and the presence or absence of hospitalization. The Bayesian network model was applied to identify the characteristics of the patients, and four observed values were changed using a model for patients who paid at least 3607 USD a year for medical expenses. The changes in the conditional probability of the annual healthcare expenditures and changes in the percentage of patients with high-cost medical expenses were analyzed. Results: After changing the observed value, the percentage of patients with high-cost medical expense reimbursement increased when the following four conditions were applied: the patient "has ever been hospitalized", "had been provided medical services at least 18 days a year", "had at least 14 diseases listed on medical insurance receipts", and "has not had specific health checkups in five years". Conclusions: To prevent an excessive rise in healthcare expenditures in Type 2 diabetic patients, measures against complications and promoting encouragement for them to undergo specific health checkups are considered as effective.

Forecasting maldistribution of human resources for healthcare and patients in Japan: a utilization-based approach.

BACKGROUND: Hokkaido's demographic trend of population decrease with aging population is remarkable even in Japan. Although healthcare policy decision-makers need to appropriately allocate resources while grasping regional demands, not much is available on whether medical demand would increase or not for future. In addition, little is known about what impact will current situation have on future demand-supply balance and equality by regions. This study aims to support decision-making in human resource planning for coping with changing population structure by forecasting future demand, and evaluation those regional maldistributions. METHOD: We set patients with acute myocardial infarction or cerebral stroke, and all medical care as study subjects and analyzed for 2015, 2025, and 2035 in Hokkaido and each Secondary Medical Care Area. We used a utilization-based approach to estimate the healthcare supply-demand balance in the future. Moreover, we evaluated the regional maldistribution of demand-supply balance by calculating Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, Gini Coefficients, the number of physicians/specialists per patient. Moreover, we conducted sensitivity analysis to evaluation impact on aspects of demand-supply balance by uncertainty of utilization for future. RESULTS: Our results displayed that concentration of patients will progress, while regional distribution will shrink in all subject. However, from comparison based on all medical care, Gini Coefficients of acute myocardial infarction and cerebral stroke has always been high. This suggest that the resource allocation of them has room for improvement. In addition, our analysis showed the change in this balance will differ in each region in the future. Moreover, demographic change will not consistent with the number of patient change from 2015 to 2035. CONCLUSION: These results suggest policy planners should use the number of patient by disease, by region as indicator of demand, instead of provider-to-population ratios being in use today. The result of our sensitivity analysis show two findings. First, the range of each indicator have possible for future. Second, increase of utilization, for instance lowing barrier in the use by development operation of patient transportation in AMI/CS, would improve maldistribution of opportunity for resident to get emergency medical services.

A Cost-Effectiveness Simulation of Specialist Dispatching System in Japan for Treatments of Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke Using a Geographic Information System.

Regional disparities in the implementation rates of recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator and endovascular thrombectomy treatments have been reported in Japan. We simulated the cost-effectiveness of specialist dispatching system in Hokkaido, Japan using Geographic Information System. In the system a qualified specialist is dispatched to another hospital for endovascular thrombectomy. Since the system improved patient accessibility, and the cost- effectiveness was excellent, the system could help enhance the equality and cost-effectiveness of ischemic stroke treatments in Hokkaido.