A consolidated and geolocated facility list in Senegal from triangulating secondary data.

Having a geolocated list of all facilities in a country - a "master facility list" (MFL) - can provide critical inputs for health program planning and implementation. To the best of our knowledge, Senegal has never had a centralized MFL, though many data sources currently exist within the broader Senegalese data landscape that could be leveraged and consolidated into a single database - a critical first step toward building a full MFL. We collated 12,965 facility observations from 16 separate datasets and lists in Senegal, and applied matching algorithms, manual checking and revisions as needed, and verification processes to identify unique facilities and triangulate corresponding GPS coordinates. Our resulting consolidated facility list has a total of 4,685 facilities, with 2,423 having at least one set of GPS coordinates. Developing approaches to leverage existing data toward future MFL establishment can help bridge data demands and inform more targeted approaches for completing a full facility census based on areas and facility types with the lowest coverage. Going forward, it is crucial to ensure routine updates of current facility lists, and to strengthen government-led mechanisms around such data collection demands and the need for timely data for health decision-making.

A small area model to assess temporal trends and sub-national disparities in healthcare quality.

Monitoring subnational healthcare quality is important for identifying and addressing geographic inequities. Yet, health facility surveys are rarely powered to support the generation of estimates at more local levels. With this study, we propose an analytical approach for estimating both temporal and subnational patterns of healthcare quality indicators from health facility survey data. This method uses random effects to account for differences between survey instruments; space-time processes to leverage correlations in space and time; and covariates to incorporate auxiliary information. We applied this method for three countries in which at least four health facility surveys had been conducted since 1999 - Kenya, Senegal, and Tanzania - and estimated measures of sick-child care quality per WHO Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) guidelines at programmatic subnational level, between 1999 and 2020. Model performance metrics indicated good out-of-sample predictive validity, illustrating the potential utility of geospatial statistical models for health facility data. This method offers a way to jointly estimate indicators of healthcare quality over space and time, which could then provide insights to decision-makers and health service program managers.

Assessing Geographic Overlap between Zero-Dose Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccination Prevalence and Other Health Indicators.

The integration of immunization with other essential health services is among the strategic priorities of the Immunization Agenda 2030 and has the potential to improve the effectiveness, efficiency, and equity of health service delivery. This study aims to evaluate the degree of spatial overlap between the prevalence of children who have never received a dose of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (no-DTP) and other health-related indicators, to provide insight into the potential for joint geographic targeting of integrated service delivery efforts. Using geospatially modeled estimates of vaccine coverage and comparator indicators, we develop a framework to delineate and compare areas of high overlap across indicators, both within and between countries, and based upon both counts and prevalence. We derive summary metrics of spatial overlap to facilitate comparison between countries and indicators and over time. As an example, we apply this suite of analyses to five countries-Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Angola-and five comparator indicators-children with stunting, under-5 mortality, children missing doses of oral rehydration therapy, prevalence of lymphatic filariasis, and insecticide-treated bed net coverage. Our results demonstrate substantial heterogeneity in the geographic overlap both within and between countries. These results provide a framework to assess the potential for joint geographic targeting of interventions, supporting efforts to ensure that all people, regardless of location, can benefit from vaccines and other essential health services.

Assessing Potential Exemplars in Reducing Zero-Dose Children: A Novel Approach for Identifying Positive Outliers in Decreasing National Levels and Geographic Inequalities in Unvaccinated Children.

BACKGROUND: Understanding past successes in reaching unvaccinated or "zero-dose" children can help inform strategies for improving childhood immunization in other settings. Drawing from positive outlier methods, we developed a novel approach for identifying potential exemplars in reducing zero-dose children. METHODS: Focusing on 2000-2019, we assessed changes in the percentage of under-one children with no doses of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (no-DTP) across two geographic dimensions in 56 low- or lower-middle-income countries: (1) national levels; (2) subnational gaps, as defined as the difference between the 5th and 95th percentiles of no-DTP prevalence across second administrative units. Countries with the largest reductions for both metrics were considered positive outliers or potential 'exemplars', demonstrating exception progress in reducing national no-DTP prevalence and subnational inequalities. Last, so-called "neighborhood analyses" were conducted for the Gavi Learning Hub countries (Nigeria, Mali, Uganda, and Bangladesh), comparing them with countries that had similar no-DTP measures in 2000 but different trajectories through 2019. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2019, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and India had the largest absolute decreases for the two no-DTP dimensions-national prevalence and subnational gaps-while Bangladesh and Burundi registered the largest relative reductions for each no-DTP metric. Neighborhood analyses highlighted possible opportunities for cross-country learning among Gavi Learning Hub countries and potential exemplars in reducing zero-dose children. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying where exceptional progress has occurred is the first step toward better understanding how such gains could be achieved elsewhere. Further examination of how countries have successfully reduced levels of zero-dose children-especially across variable contexts and different drivers of inequality-could support faster, sustainable advances toward greater vaccination equity worldwide.

Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis.

BACKGROUND: The USA struggled in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but not all states struggled equally. Identifying the factors associated with cross-state variation in infection and mortality rates could help to improve responses to this and future pandemics. We sought to answer five key policy-relevant questions regarding the following: 1) what roles social, economic, and racial inequities had in interstate variation in COVID-19 outcomes; 2) whether states with greater health-care and public health capacity had better outcomes; 3) how politics influenced the results; 4) whether states that imposed more policy mandates and sustained them longer had better outcomes; and 5) whether there were trade-offs between a state having fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections and total COVID-19 deaths and its economic and educational outcomes. METHODS: Data disaggregated by US state were extracted from public databases, including COVID-19 infection and mortality estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) COVID-19 database; Bureau of Economic Analysis data on state gross domestic product (GDP); Federal Reserve economic data on employment rates; National Center for Education Statistics data on student standardised test scores; and US Census Bureau data on race and ethnicity by state. We standardised infection rates for population density and death rates for age and the prevalence of major comorbidities to facilitate comparison of states' successes in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. We regressed these health outcomes on prepandemic state characteristics (such as educational attainment and health spending per capita), policies adopted by states during the pandemic (such as mask mandates and business closures), and population-level behavioural responses (such as vaccine coverage and mobility). We explored potential mechanisms connecting state-level factors to individual-level behaviours using linear regression. We quantified reductions in state GDP, employment, and student test scores during the pandemic to identify policy and behavioural responses associated with these outcomes and to assess trade-offs between these outcomes and COVID-19 outcomes. Significance was defined as p<0·05. FINDINGS: Standardised cumulative COVID-19 death rates for the period from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022 varied across the USA (national rate 372 deaths per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 364-379]), with the lowest standardised rates in Hawaii (147 deaths per 100 000 [127-196]) and New Hampshire (215 per 100 000 [183-271]) and the highest in Arizona (581 per 100 000 [509-672]) and Washington, DC (526 per 100 000 [425-631]). A lower poverty rate, higher mean number of years of education, and a greater proportion of people expressing interpersonal trust were statistically associated with lower infection and death rates, and states where larger percentages of the population identify as Black (non-Hispanic) or Hispanic were associated with higher cumulative death rates. Access to quality health care (measured by the IHME's Healthcare Access and Quality Index) was associated with fewer total COVID-19 deaths and SARS-CoV-2 infections, but higher public health spending and more public health personnel per capita were not, at the state level. The political affiliation of the state governor was not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 death rates, but worse COVID-19 outcomes were associated with the proportion of a state's voters who voted for the 2020 Republican presidential candidate. State governments' uses of protective mandates were associated with lower infection rates, as were mask use, lower mobility, and higher vaccination rate, while vaccination rates were associated with lower death rates. State GDP and student reading test scores were not associated with state COVD-19 policy responses, infection rates, or death rates. Employment, however, had a statistically significant relationship with restaurant closures and greater infections and deaths: on average, 1574 (95% UI 884-7107) additional infections per 10 000 population were associated in states with a one percentage point increase in employment rate. Several policy mandates and protective behaviours were associated with lower fourth-grade mathematics test scores, but our study results did not find a link to state-level estimates of school closures. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 magnified the polarisation and persistent social, economic, and racial inequities that already existed across US society, but the next pandemic threat need not do the same. US states that mitigated those structural inequalities, deployed science-based interventions such as vaccination and targeted vaccine mandates, and promoted their adoption across society were able to match the best-performing nations in minimising COVID-19 death rates. These findings could contribute to the design and targeting of clinical and policy interventions to facilitate better health outcomes in future crises. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, J and E Nordstrom, and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Assessing the impact of community-based interventions on hypertension and diabetes management in three Minnesota communities: Findings from the prospective evaluation of US HealthRise programs.

BACKGROUND: Community-based health interventions are increasingly viewed as models of care that can bridge healthcare gaps experienced by underserved communities in the United States (US). With this study, we sought to assess the impact of such interventions, as implemented through the US HealthRise program, on hypertension and diabetes among underserved communities in Hennepin, Ramsey, and Rice Counties, Minnesota. METHODS AND FINDINGS: HealthRise patient data from June 2016 to October 2018 were assessed relative to comparison patients in a difference-in-difference analysis, quantifying program impact on reducing systolic blood pressure (SBP) and hemoglobin A1c, as well as meeting clinical targets (< 140 mmHg for hypertension, < 8% Al1c for diabetes), beyond routine care. For hypertension, HealthRise participation was associated with SBP reductions in Rice (6.9 mmHg [95% confidence interval: 0.9-12.9]) and higher clinical target achievement in Hennepin (27.3 percentage-points [9.8-44.9]) and Rice (17.1 percentage-points [0.9 to 33.3]). For diabetes, HealthRise was associated with A1c decreases in Ramsey (1.3 [0.4-2.2]). Qualitative data showed the value of home visits alongside clinic-based services; however, challenges remained, including community health worker retention and program sustainability. CONCLUSIONS: HealthRise participation had positive effects on improving hypertension and diabetes outcomes at some sites. While community-based health programs can help bridge healthcare gaps, they alone cannot fully address structural inequalities experienced by many underserved communities.

Measuring contraceptive method mix, prevalence, and demand satisfied by age and marital status in 204 countries and territories, 1970-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Meeting the contraceptive needs of women of reproductive age is beneficial for the health of women and children, and the economic and social empowerment of women. Higher rates of contraceptive coverage have been linked to the availability of a more diverse range of contraceptive methods. We present estimates of the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), demand satisfied, and the method of contraception used for both partnered and unpartnered women for 5-year age groups in 204 countries and territories between 1970 and 2019. METHODS: We used 1162 population-based surveys capturing contraceptive use among women between 1970 and 2019, in which women of reproductive age (15-49 years) self-reported their, or their partner's, current use of contraception for family planning purposes. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of the CPR, mCPR, demand satisfied, and method mix by age and marital status. We assessed how age-specific mCPR and demand satisfied changed with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of social and economic development, using the meta-regression Bayesian, regularised, trimmed method from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. FINDINGS: In 2019, 162·9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 155·6-170·2) women had unmet need for contraception, of whom 29·3% (27·9-30·6) resided in sub-Saharan Africa and 27·2% (24·4-30·3) resided in south Asia. Women aged 15-19 years (64·8% [62·9-66·7]) and 20-24 years (71·9% [68·9-74·2]) had the lowest rates of demand satisfied, with 43·2 million (95% UI 39·3-48·0) women aged 15-24 years with unmet need in 2019. The mCPR and demand satisfied among women aged 15-19 years were substantially lower than among women aged 20-49 years at SDI values below 60 (on a 0-100 scale), but began to equalise as SDI increased above 60. Between 1970 and 2019, the global mCPR increased by 20·1 percentage points (95% UI 18·7-21·6). During this time, traditional methods declined as a proportion of all contraceptive methods, whereas the use of implants, injections, female sterilisation, and condoms increased. Method mix differs substantially depending on age and geography, with the share of female sterilisation increasing with age and comprising more than 50% of methods in use in south Asia. In 28 countries, one method was used by more than 50% of users in 2019. INTERPRETATION: The dominance of one contraceptive method in some locations raises the question of whether family planning policies should aim to expand method mix or invest in making existing methods more accessible. Lower rates of demand satisfied among women aged 15-24 years are also concerning because unintended pregnancies before age 25 years can forestall or eliminate education and employment opportunities that lead to social and economic empowerment. Policy makers should strive to tailor family planning programmes to the preferences of the groups with the most need, while maintaining the programmes used by existing users. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating global and regional disruptions to routine childhood vaccine coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission substantially affected health services worldwide. To better understand the impact of the pandemic on childhood routine immunisation, we estimated disruptions in vaccine coverage associated with the pandemic in 2020, globally and by Global Burden of Disease (GBD) super-region. METHODS: For this analysis we used a two-step hierarchical random spline modelling approach to estimate global and regional disruptions to routine immunisation using administrative data and reports from electronic immunisation systems, with mobility data as a model input. Paired with estimates of vaccine coverage expected in the absence of COVID-19, which were derived from vaccine coverage models from GBD 2020, Release 1 (GBD 2020 R1), we estimated the number of children who missed routinely delivered doses of the third-dose diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3) vaccine and first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) in 2020. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2020, estimated vaccine coverage was 76·7% (95% uncertainty interval 74·3-78·6) for DTP3 and 78·9% (74·8-81·9) for MCV1, representing relative reductions of 7·7% (6·0-10·1) for DTP3 and 7·9% (5·2-11·7) for MCV1, compared to expected doses delivered in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. From January to December, 2020, we estimated that 30·0 million (27·6-33·1) children missed doses of DTP3 and 27·2 million (23·4-32·5) children missed MCV1 doses. Compared to expected gaps in coverage for eligible children in 2020, these estimates represented an additional 8·5 million (6·5-11·6) children not routinely vaccinated with DTP3 and an additional 8·9 million (5·7-13·7) children not routinely vaccinated with MCV1 attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. Globally, monthly disruptions were highest in April, 2020, across all GBD super-regions, with 4·6 million (4·0-5·4) children missing doses of DTP3 and 4·4 million (3·7-5·2) children missing doses of MCV1. Every GBD super-region saw reductions in vaccine coverage in March and April, with the most severe annual impacts in north Africa and the Middle East, south Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. We estimated the lowest annual reductions in vaccine delivery in sub-Saharan Africa, where disruptions remained minimal throughout the year. For some super-regions, including southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania for both DTP3 and MCV1, the high-income super-region for DTP3, and south Asia for MCV1, estimates suggest that monthly doses were delivered at or above expected levels during the second half of 2020. INTERPRETATION: Routine immunisation services faced stark challenges in 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic causing the most widespread and largest global disruption in recent history. Although the latest coverage trajectories point towards recovery in some regions, a combination of lagging catch-up immunisation services, continued SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and persistent gaps in vaccine coverage before the pandemic still left millions of children under-vaccinated or unvaccinated against preventable diseases at the end of 2020, and these gaps are likely to extend throughout 2021. Strengthening routine immunisation data systems and efforts to target resources and outreach will be essential to minimise the risk of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks, reach children who missed routine vaccine doses during the pandemic, and accelerate progress towards higher and more equitable vaccination coverage over the next decade. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Variation in Health Care Access and Quality Among US States and High-Income Countries With Universal Health Insurance Coverage.

Importance: Based on mortality estimates for 32 causes of death that are amenable to health care, the US health care system did not perform as well as other high-income countries, scoring 88.7 out of 100 on the 2016 age-standardized Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) index. Objective: To compare US age-specific HAQ scores with those of high-income countries with universal health insurance coverage and compare scores among US states with varying insurance coverage. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used 2016 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factor study results for cause-specific mortality with adjustments for behavioral and environmental risks to estimate the age-specific HAQ indices. The US national age-specific HAQ scores were compared with high-income peers (Canada, western Europe, high-income Asia Pacific countries, and Australasia) in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2016, and the 2016 scores among US states were also analyzed. The Public Use Microdata Sample of the American Community Survey was used to estimate insurance coverage and the median income per person by age and state. Age-specific HAQ scores for each state in 2010 and 2016 were regressed based on models with age fixed effects and age interaction with insurance coverage, median income, and year. Data were analyzed from April to July 2018 and July to September 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The age-specific HAQ indices were the outcome measures. Results: In 1990, US age-specific HAQ scores were similar to peers but increased less from 1990 to 2016 than peer locations for ages 15 years or older. For example, for ages 50 to 54 years, US scores increased from 77.1 to 82.1 while high-income Asia Pacific scores increased from 71.6 to 88.2. In 2016, several states had scores comparable with peers, with large differences in performance across states. For ages 15 years or older, the age-specific HAQ scores were 85 or greater for all ages in 3 states (Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Minnesota) and 75 or less for at least 1 age category in 6 states. In regression analysis estimates with state-fixed effects, insurance coverage coefficients for ages 20 to 24 years were 0.059 (99% CI, 0.006-0.111); 45 to 49 years, 0.088 (99% CI, 0.009-0.167); and 50 to 54 years, 0.101 (99% CI, 0.013-0.189). A 10% increase in insurance coverage was associated with point increases in HAQ scores among the ages of 20 to 24 years (0.59 [99% CI, 0.06-1.11]), 45 to 49 years (0.88 [99% CI, 0.09-1.67]), and 50 to 54 years (1.01 [99% CI, 0.13-1.89]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, the US age-specific HAQ scores for ages 15 to 64 years were low relative to high-income peer locations with universal health insurance coverage. Among US states, insurance coverage was associated with higher HAQ scores for some ages. Further research with causal models and additional explanations is warranted.

Pandemic Politics: Timing State-Level Social Distancing Responses to COVID-19.

CONTEXT: Social distancing is an essential but economically painful measure to flatten the curve of emergent infectious diseases. As the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 spread throughout the United States in early 2020, the federal government left to the states the difficult and consequential decisions about when to cancel events, close schools and businesses, and issue stay-at-home orders. METHODS: The authors present an original, detailed dataset of state-level social distancing policy responses to the epidemic; they then apply event history analysis to study the timing of implementation of five social distancing policies across all 50 states. RESULTS: The most important predictor of when states adopted social distancing policies is political: all else equal, states led by Republican governors were slower to implement such policies during a critical window of early COVID-19 response. CONCLUSIONS: Continuing actions driven by partisanship rather than by public health expertise and scientific recommendations may exact greater tolls on health and broader society.

Advances and challenges on the path toward the SDGs: subnational inequalities in Mexico, 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) have generated momentum for global health, aligning efforts from governments and international organisations toward a set of goals that are expected to reflect improvements in life conditions across the globe. Mexico has huge social inequalities that can affect access to quality care and health outcomes. The objective of this study is to analyse inequalities among Mexico's 32 states on the health-related SDG indicators (HRSDGIs) from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: These analyses rely on the estimation of HRSDGIs as part of the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. We estimated the concentration index for 40+3 HRSDGI stratified by Socio-demographic Index and marginalisation index, and then for indicators where inequalities were identified, we ran decomposition analyses using structural variables such as gross domestic product per capita, poverty and health expenditure. FINDINGS: Mexico has made progress on most HRSDGIs, but current trends in improvement do not appear to fast enough to meet 2030 targets. Out of 43 HRSDGIs, we identified evidence of inequality between Mexico's states for 30 indicators; of those, 23 HRSDGIs were unequal distributed affecting states with lower development and seven affecting states with higher development. The decomposition analysis indicates that social determinants of health are major drivers of HRSDGI inequalities in Mexico. INTERPRETATION: Modifying current trends for HRSDGIs will require subnational-level and national-level policy action, of which should be informed by the latest available data and monitoring on the health-related SDGs. The SDGs' overarching objective of leaving no-one behind should be prioritised not only for individuals but also for communities and other subnational levels.

Community-based interventions for detection and management of diabetes and hypertension in underserved communities: a mixed-methods evaluation in Brazil, India, South Africa and the USA.

INTRODUCTION: As non-communicable disease (NCD) burden rises worldwide, community-based programmes are a promising strategy to bridge gaps in NCD care. The HealthRise programme sought to improve hypertension and diabetes management for underserved communities in nine sites across Brazil, India, South Africa and the USA between 2016 and 2018. This study presents findings from the programme's endline evaluation. METHODS: The evaluation utilises a mixed-methods quasi-experimental design. Process indicators assess programme implementation; quantitative data examine patients' biometric measures and qualitative data characterise programme successes and challenges. Programme impact was assessed using the percentage of patients meeting blood pressure and A1c treatment targets and tracking changes in these measures over time. RESULTS: Almost 60 000 screenings, most of them in India, resulted in 1464 new hypertension and 295 new diabetes cases across sites. In Brazil, patients exhibited statistically significant reductions in blood pressure and A1c. In Shimla, India, and in South Africa, country with the shortest implementation period, there were no differences between patients served by facilities in HealthRise areas relative to comparison areas. Among participating patients with diabetes in Hennepin and Ramsey counties and hypertension patients in Hennepin County, the percentage of HealthRise patients meeting treatment targets at endline was significantly higher relative to comparison group patients. Qualitative analysis identified linking different providers, services, communities and information systems as positive HealthRise attributes. Gaps in health system capacities and sociodemographic factors, including poverty, low levels of health education and limited access to nutritious food, are remaining challenges. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from Brazil and the USA indicate that the HealthRise model has the potential to improve patient outcomes. Short implementation periods and strong emphasis on screening may have contributed to the lack of detectable differences in other sites. Community-based care cannot deliver its full potential if sociodemographic and health system barriers are not addressed in tandem.

Mapping the global endemicity and clinical burden of Plasmodium vivax, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax, national malaria programmes-particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies-require up to date assessments of P vivax endemicity and disease impact. This study presents the first global maps of P vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017. METHODS: In this spatial and temporal modelling study, we adjusted routine malariometric surveillance data for known biases and used socioeconomic indicators to generate time series of the clinical burden of P vivax. These data informed Bayesian geospatial models, which produced fine-scale predictions of P vivax clinical incidence and infection prevalence over time. Within sub-Saharan Africa, where routine surveillance for P vivax is not standard practice, we combined predicted surfaces of Plasmodium falciparum with country-specific ratios of P vivax to P falciparum. These results were combined with surveillance-based outputs outside of Africa to generate global maps. FINDINGS: We present the first high-resolution maps of P vivax burden. These results are combined with those for P falciparum (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The burden of P vivax malaria decreased by 41·6%, from 24·5 million cases (95% uncertainty interval 22·5-27·0) in 2000 to 14·3 million cases (13·7-15·0) in 2017. The Americas had a reduction of 56·8% (47·6-67·0) in total cases since 2000, while South-East Asia recorded declines of 50·5% (50·3-50·6) and the Western Pacific regions recorded declines of 51·3% (48·0-55·4). Europe achieved zero P vivax cases during the study period. Nonetheless, rates of decline have stalled in the past five years for many countries, with particular increases noted in regions affected by political and economic instability. INTERPRETATION: Our study highlights important spatial and temporal patterns in the clinical burden and prevalence of P vivax. Amid substantial progress worldwide, plateauing gains and areas of increased burden signal the potential for challenges that are greater than expected on the road to malaria elimination. These results support global monitoring systems and can inform the optimisation of diagnosis and treatment where P vivax has most impact. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust.

Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000-17: a spatial and temporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Since 2000, the scale-up of malaria control interventions has substantially reduced morbidity and mortality caused by the disease globally, fuelling bold aims for disease elimination. In tandem with increased availability of geospatially resolved data, malaria control programmes increasingly use high-resolution maps to characterise spatially heterogeneous patterns of disease risk and thus efficiently target areas of high burden. METHODS: We updated and refined the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical incidence models for sub-Saharan Africa, which rely on cross-sectional survey data for parasite rate and intervention coverage. For malaria endemic countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa, we produced estimates of parasite rate and incidence by applying an ecological downscaling approach to malaria incidence data acquired via routine surveillance. Mortality estimates were derived by linking incidence to systematically derived vital registration and verbal autopsy data. Informed by high-resolution covariate surfaces, we estimated P falciparum parasite rate, clinical incidence, and mortality at national, subnational, and 5 × 5 km pixel scales with corresponding uncertainty metrics. FINDINGS: We present the first global, high-resolution map of P falciparum malaria mortality and the first global prevalence and incidence maps since 2010. These results are combined with those for Plasmodium vivax (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The P falciparum estimates span the period 2000-17, and illustrate the rapid decline in burden between 2005 and 2017, with incidence declining by 27·9% and mortality declining by 42·5%. Despite a growing population in endemic regions, P falciparum cases declined between 2005 and 2017, from 232·3 million (95% uncertainty interval 198·8-277·7) to 193·9 million (156·6-240·2) and deaths declined from 925 800 (596 900-1 341 100) to 618 700 (368 600-952 200). Despite the declines in burden, 90·1% of people within sub-Saharan Africa continue to reside in endemic areas, and this region accounted for 79·4% of cases and 87·6% of deaths in 2017. INTERPRETATION: High-resolution maps of P falciparum provide a contemporary resource for informing global policy and malaria control planning, programme implementation, and monitoring initiatives. Amid progress in reducing global malaria burden, areas where incidence trends have plateaued or increased in the past 5 years underscore the fragility of hard-won gains against malaria. Efforts towards elimination should be strengthened in such areas, and those where burden remained high throughout the study period. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Tracking spending on malaria by source in 106 countries, 2000-16: an economic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Sustaining achievements in malaria control and making progress toward malaria elimination requires coordinated funding. We estimated domestic malaria spending by source in 106 countries that were malaria-endemic in 2000-16 or became malaria-free after 2000. METHODS: We collected 36 038 datapoints reporting government, out-of-pocket (OOP), and prepaid private malaria spending, as well as malaria treatment-seeking, costs of patient care, and drug prices. We estimated government spending on patient care for malaria, which was added to government spending by national malaria control programmes. For OOP malaria spending, we used data reported in National Health Accounts and estimated OOP spending on treatment. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to ensure estimates were complete and comparable across time and to generate uncertainty. FINDINGS: In 2016, US$4·3 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 4·2-4·4) was spent on malaria worldwide, an 8·5% (95% UI 8·1-8·9) per year increase over spending in 2000. Since 2000, OOP spending increased 3·8% (3·3-4·2) per year, amounting to $556 million (487-634) or 13·0% (11·6-14·5) of all malaria spending in 2016. Governments spent $1·2 billion (1·1-1·3) or 28·2% (27·1-29·3) of all malaria spending in 2016, increasing 4·0% annually since 2000. The source of malaria spending varied depending on whether countries were in the malaria control or elimination stage. INTERPRETATION: Tracking global malaria spending provides insight into how far the world is from reaching the malaria funding target of $6·6 billion annually by 2020. Because most countries with a high burden of malaria are low income or lower-middle income, mobilising additional government resources for malaria might be challenging. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mapping diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus vaccine coverage in Africa, 2000-2016: a spatial and temporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Routine childhood vaccination is among the most cost-effective, successful public health interventions available. Amid substantial investments to expand vaccine delivery throughout Africa and strengthen administrative reporting systems, most countries still require robust measures of local routine vaccine coverage and changes in geographical inequalities over time. METHODS: This analysis drew from 183 surveys done between 2000 and 2016, including data from 881 268 children in 49 African countries. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model calibrated to results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017, to produce annual estimates with high-spatial resolution (5 ×    5 km) of diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus (DPT) vaccine coverage and dropout for children aged 12-23 months in 52 African countries from 2000 to 2016. FINDINGS: Estimated third-dose (DPT3) coverage increased in 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 64·6-80·3) of second-level administrative units in Africa from 2000 to 2016, but substantial geographical inequalities in DPT coverage remained across and within African countries. In 2016, DPT3 coverage at the second administrative (ie, district) level varied by more than 25% in 29 of 52 countries, with only two (Morocco and Rwanda) of 52 countries meeting the Global Vaccine Action Plan target of 80% DPT3 coverage or higher in all second-level administrative units with high confidence (posterior probability ≥95%). Large areas of low DPT3 coverage (≤50%) were identified in the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, and in Angola. Low first-dose (DPT1) coverage (≤50%) and high relative dropout (≥30%) together drove low DPT3 coverage across the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, Guinea, and Angola. INTERPRETATION: Despite substantial progress in Africa, marked national and subnational inequalities in DPT coverage persist throughout the continent. These results can help identify areas of low coverage and vaccine delivery system vulnerabilities and can ultimately support more precise targeting of resources to improve vaccine coverage and health outcomes for African children. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors in Child and Adolescent Health, 1990 to 2017: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study.

Importance: Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies. Objective: To estimate mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes using standardized approaches to data processing and statistical analysis. It also describes epidemiologic transitions by evaluating historical associations between disease indicators and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and fertility. Data collected from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories were assessed. Data analysis occurred from January 2018 to August 2018. Exposures: Being under the age of 20 years between 1990 and 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Death and disability. All-cause and cause-specific deaths, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, and years of life lived with disability. Results: Child and adolescent deaths decreased 51.7% from 13.77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 13.60-13.93 million) in 1990 to 6.64 million (95% UI, 6.44-6.87 million) in 2017, but in 2017, aggregate disability increased 4.7% to a total of 145 million (95% UI, 107-190 million) years lived with disability globally. Progress was uneven, and inequity increased, with low-SDI and low-middle-SDI locations experiencing 82.2% (95% UI, 81.6%-82.9%) of deaths, up from 70.9% (95% UI, 70.4%-71.4%) in 1990. The leading disaggregated causes of disability-adjusted life years in 2017 in the low-SDI quintile were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, malaria, and congenital birth defects, whereas neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, headache, dermatitis, and anxiety were highest-ranked in the high-SDI quintile. Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality reductions over this 27-year period mean that children are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays. The concomitant expansion of nonfatal health loss and epidemiological transition in children and adolescents, especially in low-SDI and middle-SDI countries, has the potential to increase already overburdened health systems, will affect the human capital potential of societies, and may influence the trajectory of socioeconomic development. Continued monitoring of child and adolescent health loss is crucial to sustain the progress of the past 27 years.