The influence of a major sporting event upon emergency department attendances; A retrospective cross-national European study.

Major sporting events may influence attendance levels at hospital emergency departments (ED). Previous research has focussed on the impact of single games, or wins/losses for specific teams/countries, limiting wider generalisations. Here we explore the impact of the Euro 2016 football championships on ED attendances across four participating nations (England, France, Northern Ireland, Wales), using a single methodology. Match days were found to have no significant impact upon daily ED attendances levels. Focussing upon hourly attendances, ED attendances across all countries in the four hour pre-match period were statistically significantly lower than would be expected (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-0.99) and further reduced during matches (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.97). In the 4 hour post-match period there was no significant increase in attendances (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.04). However, these impacts were highly variable between individual matches: for example in the 4 hour period following the final, involving France, the number of ED attendances in France increased significantly (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.13-1.42). Overall our results indicate relatively small impacts of major sporting events upon ED attendances. The heterogeneity observed makes it difficult for health providers to predict how major sporting events may affect ED attendances but supports the future development of compatible systems in different countries to support cross-border public health surveillance.

Impact of live attenuated influenza vaccination programme for healthy children in Northern Ireland: A comparison of seven influenza seasons, 2010/11-2016/17.

Seasonal influenza vaccination for healthy children was introduced in Northern Ireland in the 2013/14 flu season, with an initial pilot year involving two specific cohorts, followed by rollout to all children aged 4-11 years in subsequent seasons. This study aimed to examine the impact of that programme on the burden of flu in primary care over the study period 2010/11-2016/17. Two routine indicators were used to measure impact - GP in-hour consultations and out-of-hour calls for influenza and influenza-like-illness (ILI). Analysis was conducted overall and stratified by age; rates in children under 14 years of age to measure direct impact and rates in individuals 14 years and over to measure indirect impact. Seven influenza seasons were included, three pre-programme seasons (2010/11-2012/13: phase 0), one pilot season (2013/14: phase 1), and three post-programme seasons (2014/15-2016/17: phase 2). High uptake of vaccination was observed from the programme introduction, with consistent uptake of over 50% in pre-school age groups and over 75% in primary school age groups. Statistically significant reductions were found in GP in-hours consultations and in out-of-hour calls in phase 2 compared to phase 0, both overall (GP in-hours RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.38-0.98, p = .040; out-of-hours RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.27-0.97, p = .041) and in the under 14 years group (GP in-hours RR 0.38, 95% CI 0.19-0.75, p = .006; out-of-hours RR 0.39, 95% CI 0.19-0.83, p = .014). Our results suggest that there have been reductions in the burden of flu in primary care settings overall and in children aged under 14 years in the seasons since the introduction of healthy children influenza vaccination. Further seasons should be added to subsequent analyses to strengthen this evidence.

End-of-season influenza vaccine effectiveness in adults and children, United Kingdom, 2016/17.

IntroductionThe United Kingdom is in the fourth season of introducing a universal childhood influenza vaccine programme. The 2016/17 season saw early influenza A(H3N2) virus circulation with care home outbreaks and increased excess mortality particularly in those 65 years or older. Virus characterisation data indicated emergence of genetic clusters within the A(H3N2) 3C.2a group which the 2016/17 vaccine strain belonged to. Methods: The test-negative case-control (TNCC) design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory confirmed influenza in primary care. Results: Adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (aVE) estimates were 39.8% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.1 to 52.8) against all influenza and 40.6% (95% CI: 19.0 to 56.3) in 18-64-year-olds, but no significant aVE in ≥ 65-year-olds. aVE was 65.8% (95% CI: 30.3 to 83.2) for 2-17-year-olds receiving quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine. Discussion: The findings continue to provide support for the ongoing roll-out of the paediatric vaccine programme, with a need for ongoing evaluation. The importance of effective interventions to protect the ≥ 65-year-olds remains.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine for adults and children in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care in the United Kingdom: 2015/16 end-of-season results.

The United Kingdom (UK) is in the third season of introducing universal paediatric influenza vaccination with a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV). The 2015/16 season in the UK was initially dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and then influenza of B/Victoria lineage, not contained in that season's adult trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV). Overall adjusted end-of-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 52.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 41.0-61.6) against influenza-confirmed primary care consultation, 54.5% (95% CI: 41.6-64.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 54.2% (95% CI: 33.1-68.6) against influenza B. In 2-17 year-olds, adjusted VE for LAIV was 57.6% (95% CI: 25.1 to 76.0) against any influenza, 81.4% (95% CI: 39.6-94.3) against influenza B and 41.5% (95% CI: -8.5 to 68.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These estimates demonstrate moderate to good levels of protection, particularly against influenza B in children, but relatively less against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Despite lineage mismatch in the trivalent IIV, adults younger than 65 years were still protected against influenza B. These results provide reassurance for the UK to continue its influenza immunisation programme planned for 2016/17.

A population based study comparing changes in rotavirus burden on the Island of Ireland between a highly vaccinated population and an unvaccinated population.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus infection is a leading cause of gastroenteritis in infants and children globally. Reductions in rotavirus activity have been observed following introduction of rotavirus vaccination programmes, however a reductions have also been reported in some unvaccinated countries. The Island of Ireland incorporates the two jurisdictions Northern Ireland (NI) and the Republic of Ireland (IE). Both have similarities in climate, demography, morbidity and mortality but distinct health administrations and vaccination policies. Rotarix was added to the childhood immunisation programme in NI on the 1 July 2013. IE have not introduced routine rotavirus vaccination to date. The aim of this population based ecological study was to evaluate the impact of the rotavirus vaccine on burden of rotavirus disease in NI, and to compare with IE as an unvaccinated control population. This will help determine if the changes seen were due to the rotavirus vaccine, or due to confounding factors. METHODS: A number of population based measures of disease burden were compared in both jurisdictions pre-vaccine (six years; 2007/08-2012/13) and post-vaccine (two years; 2013/14-2014/15). The data sources included national rotavirus surveillance data based on laboratory reports/notifications; hospital admission data; and notifications of gastroenteritis in under 2year olds. RESULTS: In the post-vaccination period, rotavirus incidence in NI dropped by 54% while in IE it increased by 19% compared to the pre-vaccine period. Notifications of gastroenteritis in under 2s in NI declined by 53% and hospital admissions in under 5year olds in NI declined by 40% in the post vaccine period. CONCLUSIONS: This natural experiment demonstrated a significant reduction in rotavirus disease activity post-vaccine introduction in NI with associated reductions in healthcare utilisation, with a concurrent increase in rotavirus disease activity in the non-vaccinated population in IE. These findings support rotavirus vaccination as an effective measure to reduce childhood morbidity.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care in the United Kingdom: 2015/16 mid-season results.

In 2015/16, the influenza season in the United Kingdom was dominated by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 circulation. Virus characterisation indicated the emergence of genetic clusters, with the majority antigenically similar to the current influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine strain. Mid-season vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates show an adjusted VE of 41.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.0-64.7) against influenza-confirmed primary care consultations and of 49.1% (95% CI: 9.3-71.5) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. These estimates show levels of protection similar to the 2010/11 season, when this strain was first used in the seasonal vaccine.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care in the United Kingdom: 2014/15 end of season results.

The 2014/15 influenza season in the United Kingdom (UK) was characterised by circulation of predominantly antigenically and genetically drifted influenza A(H3N2) and B viruses. A universal paediatric influenza vaccination programme using a quadrivalent live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) has recently been introduced in the UK. This study aims to measure the end-of-season influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), including for LAIV, using the test negative case-control design. The overall adjusted VE against all influenza was 34.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 17.8 to 47.5); for A(H3N2) 29.3% (95% CI: 8.6 to 45.3) and for B 46.3% (95% CI: 13.9 to 66.5). For those aged under 18 years, influenza A(H3N2) LAIV VE was 35% (95% CI: -29.9 to 67.5), whereas for influenza B the LAIV VE was 100% (95% CI:17.0 to 100.0). Although the VE against influenza A(H3N2) infection was low, there was still evidence of significant protection, together with moderate, significant protection against drifted circulating influenza B viruses. LAIV provided non-significant positive protection against influenza A, with significant protection against B. Further work to assess the population impact of the vaccine programme across the UK is underway.

Impact of two different health systems on the burden of type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: Health policy directs the management of patients with chronic disease in a country, but evaluating nationwide policies is difficult, not least because of the absence of suitable comparators. This paper examines the management of patients with type 2 diabetes in two demographically comparable populations with different health care systems to see if this represents a viable approach to evaluation. METHODS: A secondary analysis of centralized prescribing databases for 2010 was undertaken to compare the levels and costs of care of patients with type 2 diabetes in Northern Ireland's National Health Service (NHS) (NI, n = 1.8 million) which has structured care, financial incentives related to diabetes care and an emphasis on generic prescribing, with that of the Republic of Ireland (ROI, n = 4.3 million) where management of diabetes care is guided solely by clinical and other guidelines. RESULTS: The prevalence of treated type 2 diabetes was 3.59% in NI and 3.09% in ROI, but there were similar and high levels of prescribing of secondary cardiovascular medications. Medication costs per person for anti-diabetic, anti-obesity and cardiovascular medication were 46% higher in ROI than NI, due to differences in levels of generic prescribing. CONCLUSIONS: These different health care systems appear to be producing similar levels of care for patients with type 2 diabetes, although at different levels of cost. The findings question the need for financial incentives in NI and highlight the large cost savings potentially accruing from a greater shift to generic prescribing in ROI. Cross-country comparison, though not without difficulties, may prove a useful adjunct to within-country analysis of policy impact.