Unveiling ecological/evolutionary insights in HIV viral load dynamics: Allowing random slopes to observe correlational changes to CpG-contents and other molecular and clinical predictors.

In the context of infectious diseases, the dynamic interplay between ever-changing host populations and viral biology demands a more flexible modeling approach than common fixed correlations. Embracing random-effects regression models allows for a nuanced understanding of the intricate ecological and evolutionary dynamics underlying complex phenomena, offering valuable insights into disease progression and transmission patterns. In this article, we employed a random-effects regression to model an observed decreasing median plasma viral load (pVL) among individuals with HIV in Mexico City during 2019-2021. We identified how these functional slope changes (i.e. random slopes by year) improved predictions of the observed pVL median changes between 2019 and 2021, leading us to hypothesize underlying ecological and evolutionary factors. Our analysis involved a dataset of pVL values from 7325 ART-naïve individuals living with HIV, accompanied by their associated clinical and viral molecular predictors. A conventional fixed-effects linear model revealed significant correlations between pVL and predictors that evolved over time. However, this fixed-effects model could not fully explain the reduction in median pVL; thus, prompting us to adopt random-effects models. After applying a random effects regression model-with random slopes and intercepts by year-, we observed potential "functional changes" within the local HIV viral population, highlighting the importance of ecological and evolutionary considerations in HIV dynamics: A notably stronger negative correlation emerged between HIV pVL and the CpG content in the pol gene, suggesting a changing immune landscape influenced by CpG-induced innate immune responses that could impact viral load dynamics. Our study underscores the significance of random effects models in capturing dynamic correlations and the crucial role of molecular characteristics like CpG content. By enriching our understanding of changing host-virus interactions and HIV progression, our findings contribute to the broader relevance of such models in infectious disease research. They shed light on the changing interplay between host and pathogen, driving us closer to more effective strategies for managing infectious diseases. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY: This study highlights a decreasing trend in median plasma viral loads among ART-naïve individuals living with HIV in Mexico City between 2019 and 2021. It uncovers various predictors significantly correlated with pVL, shedding light on the complex interplay between host-virus interactions and disease progression. By employing a random-slopes model, the researchers move beyond traditional fixed-effects models to better capture dynamic correlations and evolutionary changes in HIV dynamics. The discovery of a stronger negative correlation between pVL and CpG content in HIV-pol sequences suggests potential changes in the immune landscape and innate immune responses, opening avenues for further research into adaptive changes and responses to environmental shifts in the context of HIV infection. The study's emphasis on molecular characteristics as predictors of pVL adds valuable insights to epidemiological and evolutionary studies of viruses, providing new avenues for understanding and managing HIV infection at the population level.

Honduras HIV cohort: HLA class I and CCR5-Δ32 profiles and their associations with HIV disease outcome.

IMPORTANCE: We identify both canonical and novel human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-HIV associations, providing a first step toward improved understanding of HIV immune control among the understudied Honduras Mestizo population. Our results are relevant to understanding the protective or detrimental effects of HLA subtypes in Latin America because their unique HLA diversity poses challenges for designing vaccines against HIV and interpreting results from such vaccine trials. Likewise, the description of the HLA profile in an understudied population that shows a unique HLA immunogenetic background is not only relevant for HIV immunology but also relevant in population genetics, molecular anthropology, susceptibility to other infections, autoimmune diseases, and allograft transplantation.

HIV Drug Resistance in Adults Initiating or Reinitiating Antiretroviral Therapy in Uruguay-Results of a Nationally Representative Survey, 2018-2019.

The first nationally representative cross-sectional HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) survey was conducted in Uruguay in 2018-2019 among adults diagnosed with HIV and initiating or reinitiating antiretroviral therapy (ART). Protease, reverse transcriptase, and integrase genes of HIV-1 were sequenced. A total of 206 participants were enrolled in the survey; 63.2% were men, 85.7% were >25 years of age, and 35.6% reported previous exposure to antiretroviral (ARV) drugs. The prevalence of HIVDR to efavirenz or nevirapine was significantly higher (OR: 1.82, p < 0.001) in adults with previous ARV drug exposure (20.3%, 95% CI: 18.7-22.0%) compared to adults without previous ARV drug exposure (12.3%, 11.0-13.8%). HIVDR to any nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors was 10.3% (9.4-11.2%). HIVDR to ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitors was 1.5% (1.1-2.1%); resistance to ritonavir-boosted darunavir was 0.9% (0.4-2.1%) among adults without previous ARV drug exposure and it was not observed among adults with previous ARV drug exposure. Resistance to integrase inhibitors was 12.7% (11.7-13.8%), yet HIVDR to dolutegravir, bictegravir, and cabotegravir was not observed. The high level (>10%) of HIVDR to efavirenz highlights the need to accelerate the transition to the WHO-recommended dolutegravir-based ART. Access to dolutegravir-based ART should be prioritised for people reporting previous ARV drug exposure.

High Level of Pretreatment and Acquired Human Immunodeficiency Virus Drug Resistance in El Salvador: A Nationally Representative Survey, 2018-2019.

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus drug resistance (HIVDR) can negatively impact the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We aimed to estimate the prevalence of pretreatment HIVDR (PDR) among ART initiators and the prevalence of viral load (VL) suppression and acquired HIVDR among individuals receiving ART for 12 ± 3 months (ADR12) and ≥48 months (ADR48) in El Salvador. Methods: Nationally representative cross-sectional PDR, ADR12 and ADR48 surveys were conducted among adults with HIV from October 2018 to August 2019, following World Health Organization-recommended methods. Demographic and clinic data and blood specimens were collected. Results: Two hundred sixty participants were enrolled in the PDR survey, 230 in ADR12 and 425 in ADR48. Twenty-seven percent (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.1%-39.9%) of ART initiators had PDR to efavirenz or nevirapine. The prevalence of VL suppression was 88.8% (95% CI, 83.1%-92.8%) in ADR12 and 80.5% (95% CI, 76.6%-84.0%) in ADR48 surveys. Among people with HIV receiving a first-line nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based ART regimens and with unsuppressed VL, the prevalence of ADR to efavirenz or nevirapine was 72.0% (95% CI, 32.3%-93.3%) and 95.0% (68.5%-99.4%) in the ADR12 and ADR28 surveys, respectively. ADR12 to boosted protease inhibitors (PI/r) or integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) was not observed. ADR48 was 1.3% (95% CI, 0.2%-9.6%) and 2.1% (0.3%-13.7%), respectively. Conclusions: Programmatic improvements in ART delivery are urgently needed in El Salvador to address the high levels of resistance to efavirenz or nevirapine among ART initiators and the low VL suppression prevalence among individuals on treatment.

Phylodynamics of HIV in the Mexico City Metropolitan Region.

Evolutionary analyses of viral sequences can provide insights into transmission dynamics, which in turn can optimize prevention interventions. Here, we characterized the dynamics of HIV transmission within the Mexico City metropolitan area. HIV pol sequences from persons recently diagnosed at the largest HIV clinic in Mexico City (between 2016 and 2021) were annotated with demographic/geographic metadata. A multistep phylogenetic approach was applied to identify putative transmission clades. A data set of publicly available sequences was used to assess international introductions. Clades were analyzed with a discrete phylogeographic model to evaluate the timing and intensity of HIV introductions and transmission dynamics among municipalities in the region. A total of 6,802 sequences across 96 municipalities (5,192 from Mexico City and 1,610 from the neighboring State of Mexico) were included (93.6% cisgender men, 5.0% cisgender women, and 1.3% transgender women); 3,971 of these sequences formed 1,206 clusters, involving 78 municipalities, including 89 clusters of ≥10 sequences. Discrete phylogeographic analysis revealed (i) 1,032 viral introductions into the region, over one-half of which were from the United States, and (ii) 354 migration events between municipalities with high support (adjusted Bayes factor of ≥3). The most frequent viral migrations occurred between northern municipalities within Mexico City, i.e., Cuauhtémoc to Iztapalapa (5.2% of events), Iztapalapa to Gustavo A. Madero (5.4%), and Gustavo A. Madero to Cuauhtémoc (6.5%). Our analysis illustrates the complexity of HIV transmission within the Mexico City metropolitan area but also identifies a spatially active transmission area involving a few municipalities in the north of the city, where targeted interventions could have a more pronounced effect on the entire regional epidemic. IMPORTANCE Phylogeographic investigation of the Mexico City HIV epidemic illustrates the complexity of HIV transmission in the region. An active transmission area involving a few municipalities in the north of the city, with transmission links throughout the region, is identified and could be a location where targeted interventions could have a more pronounced effect on the entire regional epidemic, compared with those dispersed in other manners.

HIV drug resistance in persons initiating or reinitiating first-line antiretroviral therapy in Paraguay: Results of a National Patient Survey.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug resistance increases mortality and morbidity and antiretroviral therapy (ART) costs. We describe Paraguay's first nationally representative survey on pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) conducted among persons who initiated or reinitiated ART in 2019. ​​​​We conducted a cross-sectional survey of antiretroviral (ARV) drug resistance in Paraguay in 2019. Participants were sampled at four comprehensive care clinics where 90% of patients with HIV in Paraguay initiate ART. Patients included were adults ≥18 years old who initiated first-line ART or reinitiated the same first-line ART regimen after ≥3 months of discontinuation. Of 208 patients, 93.8% had no prior ART exposure, 3.8% reinitiated the same regimen, 2.4% had unknown prior ART exposure; and 31.3% had a CD4 count <200 cells/µl. Mutations associated with resistance were present in 15.4% of patients. Mutations associated with resistance to nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) were present in 13.0% of patients, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors in 4.3%, and integrase inhibitors in 3.4%. Mutations associated with resistance to tenofovir were present in 1.0% of patients and emtricitabine/lamivudine in 1.4%. ​​Nearly one in six patients had PDR in Paraguay's first nationally representative sample. High NNRTI PDR prevalence underscores the need to accelerate the transition to dolutegravir-based first-line ART. The low PDR prevalence of tenofovir and emtricitabine is reassuring as these ARVs are part of the World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended oral pre-exposure prophylaxis regimen. The high proportion of individuals initiating ART at a late disease stage highlights the need to improve treatment linkage strategies and implement WHO rapid ART initiation recommendations.

Retention in Care, Mortality, Loss-to-Follow-Up, and Viral Suppression among Antiretroviral Treatment-Naïve and Experienced Persons Participating in a Nationally Representative HIV Pre-Treatment Drug Resistance Survey in Mexico.

We describe associations of pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) with clinical outcomes such as remaining in care, loss to follow-up (LTFU), viral suppression, and death in Mexico, in real-life clinical settings. We analyzed clinical outcomes after a two-year follow up period in participants of a large 2017-2018 nationally representative PDR survey cross-referenced with information of the national ministry of health HIV database. Participants were stratified according to prior ART exposure and presence of efavirenz/nevirapine PDR. Using a Fine-Gray model, we evaluated virological suppression among resistant patients, in a context of competing risk with lost to follow-up and death. A total of 1823 participants were followed-up by a median of 1.88 years (Interquartile Range (IQR): 1.59-2.02): 20 (1%) were classified as experienced + resistant; 165 (9%) naïve + resistant; 211 (11%) experienced + non-resistant; and 1427 (78%) as naïve + non-resistant. Being ART-experienced was associated with a lower probability of remaining in care (adjusted Hazard Ratio(aHR) = 0.68, 0.53-0.86, for the non-resistant group and aHR = 0.37, 0.17-0.84, for the resistant group, compared to the naïve + non-resistant group). Heterosexual cisgender women compared to men who have sex with men [MSM], had a lower viral suppression (aHR = 0.84, 0.70-1.01, p = 0.06) ART-experienced persons with NNRTI-PDR showed the worst clinical outcomes. This group was enriched with women and persons with lower education and unemployed, which suggests higher levels of social vulnerability.

HIV Pretreatment Drug Resistance Trends in Mexico City, 2017-2020.

In response to increasing pretreatment drug resistance (PDR), Mexico changed its national antiretroviral treatment (ART) policy, recommending and procuring second-generation integrase strand-transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based regimens as preferred first-line options since 2019. We present a four-year observational study describing PDR trends across 2017-2020 at the largest HIV diagnosis and primary care center in Mexico City. A total of 6688 baseline protease-reverse transcriptase and 6709 integrase sequences were included. PDR to any drug class was 14.4% (95% CI, 13.6-15.3%). A significant increasing trend for efavirenz/nevirapine PDR was observed (10.3 to 13.6%, p = 0.02). No increase in PDR to second-generation INSTI was observed, remaining under 0.3% across the study period. PDR was strongly associated with prior exposure to ART (aOR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.9-4.6, p < 0.0001). MSM had higher odds of PDR to efavirenz/nevirapine (aOR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.0-3.7, p = 0.04), reflecting ongoing transmission of mutations such as K103NS and E138A. ART restarters showed higher representation of cisgender women and injectable drug users, higher age, and lower education level. PDR to dolutegravir/bictegravir remained low in Mexico City, although further surveillance is warranted given the short time of ART optimization. Our study identifies demographic characteristics of groups with higher risk of PDR and lost to follow-up, which may be useful to design differentiated interventions locally.

Characteristics and growth of the genetic HIV transmission network of Mexico City during 2020.

INTRODUCTION: Molecular surveillance systems could provide public health benefits to focus strategies to improve the HIV care continuum. Here, we infer the HIV genetic network of Mexico City in 2020, and identify actively growing clusters that could represent relevant targets for intervention. METHODS: All new diagnoses, referrals from other institutions, as well as persons returning to care, enrolling at the largest HIV clinic in Mexico City were invited to participate in the study. The network was inferred from HIV pol sequences, using pairwise genetic distance methods, with a locally hosted, secure version of the HIV-TRACE tool: Seguro HIV-TRACE. Socio-demographic, clinical and behavioural metadata were overlaid across the network to design focused prevention interventions. RESULTS: A total of 3168 HIV sequences from unique individuals were included. One thousand and one-hundred and fifty (36%) sequences formed 1361 links within 386 transmission clusters in the network. Cluster size varied from 2 to 14 (63% were dyads). After adjustment for covariates, lower age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.37, p<0.001; >34 vs. <24 years), being a man who has sex with men (MSM) (aOR: 2.47, p = 0.004; MSM vs. cisgender women), having higher viral load (aOR: 1.28, p<0.001) and higher CD4+ T cell count (aOR: 1.80, p<0.001; ≥500 vs. <200 cells/mm3 ) remained associated with higher odds of clustering. Compared to MSM, cisgender women and heterosexual men had significantly lower education (none or any elementary: 59.1% and 54.2% vs. 16.6%, p<0.001) and socio-economic status (low income: 36.4% and 29.0% vs. 18.6%, p = 0.03) than MSM. We identified 10 (2.6%) clusters with constant growth, for prioritized intervention, that included intersecting sexual risk groups, highly connected nodes and bridge nodes between possible sub-clusters with high growth potential. CONCLUSIONS: HIV transmission in Mexico City is strongly driven by young MSM with higher education level and recent infection. Nevertheless, leveraging network inference, we identified actively growing clusters that could be prioritized for focused intervention with demographic and risk characteristics that do not necessarily reflect the ones observed in the overall clustering population. Further studies evaluating different models to predict growing clusters are warranted. Focused interventions will have to consider structural and risk disparities between the MSM and the heterosexual populations.

High level of pre-treatment and acquired HIV drug resistance in Honduras: a nationally representative survey, 2016-17.

BACKGROUND: Pre-treatment HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) to NNRTIs has consistently increased in low-/middle-income countries during the last decade. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of pre-treatment HIVDR and acquired HIVDR among persons living with HIV (PLHIV) on ART for 12 ±âŸ3 months (ADR12) and ≥48 months (ADR48) in Honduras. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A nationwide cross-sectional survey with a two-stage cluster sampling was conducted from October 2016 to November 2017. Twenty-two of 54 total ART clinics representing >90% of the national cohort of adults on ART were included. HIVDR was assessed for protease and reverse transcriptase Sanger sequences using the Stanford HIVdb tool. RESULTS: A total of 729 PLHIV were enrolled; 26.3% (95% CI 20.1%-33.5%) ART initiators reported prior exposure to antiretrovirals. Pre-treatment HIVDR prevalence was 26.9% (95% CI 20.2%-34.9%) to any antiretroviral and 25.9% (19.2%-33.9%) to NNRTIs. NNRTI pre-treatment HIVDR was higher in ART initiators with prior exposure to antiretrovirals (P = 0.001). Viral load (VL) suppression rate was 89.7% (85.1%-93.0%) in ADR12 and 67.9% (61.7%-73.6%) in ADR48. ADR12 to any drug among PLHIV with VL ≥1000 copies/mL was 86.1% (48.9%-97.6%); 67.1% (37.4%-87.5%) had HIVDR to both NNRTIs and NRTIs, and 3.8% (0.5%-25.2%) to PIs. ADR48 was 92.0% (86.8%-95.3%) to any drug; 78.1% (66.6%-86.5%) to both NNRTIs and NRTIs, and 7.3% (1.8%-25.1%) to PIs. CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of NNRTI pre-treatment HIVDR observed in Honduras warrants consideration of non-NNRTI-based first-line regimens for ART initiation. Programmatic improvements in HIVDR monitoring and adherence support may also be considered.

Near point-of-care, point-mutation test to detect drug resistance in HIV-1: a validation study in a Mexican cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Pretreatment HIV-drug resistance (PDR, HIVDR) to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) is increasing globally. NNRTIs continue to be used as first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in some communities due to the cost of dolutegravir-based ART or dolutegravir-associated adverse events. A simplified version of the oligonucleotide ligation assay (OLA) - 'OLA-Simple' - is a low-cost, near point-of-care assay that provides ready-to-use lyophilized reagents and reports HIVDR mutations as colored lines on lateral flow strips. Our objective was to design and validate OLA-Simple for a Mexican cohort. DESIGN: OLA-Simple probes to detect K65R, K103N/S, Y181C, M184V, and G190A were optimized for HIV Mexican sequences. Sixty clinical plasma specimens were analyzed by OLA-Simple by technicians blinded to Illumina-MiSeq sequences, and HIVDR results were compared. METHODS: Plasma RNA was tested using OLA-Simple kits. OLA-Simple lateral flow strips were read by in-house software, and were classified as mutant or wild-type at each codon. The comparison of results by OLA-Simple and Miseq was used to generate receiver-operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: OLA-Simple PCR amplified 59 of 60 specimens and successfully genotyped 287 of 295 codons, with eight of 295 (2.7%) indeterminate results. Compared to MiSeq, OLA-Simple gave five of 295 (1.7%) false-positive and four of 295 (1.4%) false-negative results. Excluding indeterminate results, OLA-Simple classified mutant with an accuracy of 97.4 and 98.8% when using thresholds at 10 and 25% mutant within an individual's HIV quasispecies, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to MiSeq, OLA-Simple detected HIVDR with high sensitivity and accuracy. OLA-Simple could expand access to affordable and rapid HIVDR testing to guide appropriate ART choices in populations using NNRTI-based ART.

High levels of pretreatment and acquired HIV drug resistance in Nicaragua: results from the first nationally representative survey, 2016.

INTRODUCTION: A nationally representative HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) survey in Nicaragua was conducted to estimate the prevalence of pretreatment HIVDR (PDR) among antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiators and acquired HIVDR among people living with HIV (PLHIV) who had received ART for 12 ± 3 months (ADR12) and ≥48 months (ADR48). METHODS: A nationwide cross-sectional survey with a two-stage cluster sampling was conducted from March to November 2016. Nineteen of 45 total ART clinics representing >90% of the national cohort of adults on ART were included. ART initiators were defined as PLHIV initiating or reinitiating first-line ART. HIVDR was assessed for protease, reverse transcriptase and integrase Sanger sequences using the Stanford HIVdb algorithm. Viral load (VL) suppression was defined as <1000 copies/mL. Results were weighted according to the survey design. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: A total of 638 participants were enrolled (PDR: 171; ADR12: 114; ADR48: 353). The proportion of ART initiators with prior exposure to antiretrovirals (ARVs) was 12.3% (95% CI: 5.8% to 24.3%). PDR prevalence to any drug was 23.4% (95% CI: 14.4% to 35.6%), and 19.3% (95% CI: 12.2% to 29.1%) to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI). NNRTI PDR was higher in ART initiators with previous ARV exposure compared with those with no exposure (76.2% vs. 11.0%, p < 0.001). Protease inhibitors (PI) and integrase strand transfer inhibitors PDR was not observed. VL suppression rate was 77.8% (95% CI: 67.1% to 85.8%) in ADR12 and 70.3% (95% CI: 66.7% to 73.8%) in ADR48. ADR12 prevalence to any drug among PLHIV without VL suppression was 85.1% (95% CI: 66.1% to 94.4%), 82.4% to NNRTI and 70.2% to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI). ADR48 prevalence to any drug among PLHIV without VL suppression was 75.5% (95% CI: 63.5% to 84.5 %), 70.7% to NNRTI, 59.4% to NRTI and 4.6% to PI. CONCLUSIONS: Despite implementation challenges yielding low-precision HIVDR estimates, high rates of NNRTI PDR were observed in Nicaragua, suggesting consideration of non-NNRTI-based first-line regimens for ART initiators. Strengthened HIVDR monitoring, systematic VL testing, and improved ART adherence support are also warranted.

HIV-1 drug resistance before initiation or re-initiation of first-line ART in eight regions of Mexico: a sub-nationally representative survey.

BACKGROUND: HIV pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) to NNRTIs in persons initiating ART is increasing in Mexico. OBJECTIVES: To compare HIV PDR in eight sub-regions of Mexico. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A large PDR survey was implemented in Mexico (September 2017-March 2018) across eight sub-regions. All larger clinics (which provide ART to 90% of all initiators) were included, allocating sample size using the probability-proportional-to-size method. Both antiretroviral-naive and prior antiretroviral-exposed persons were included. HIV PDR levels were estimated from pol Sanger sequences obtained at a WHO-designated laboratory. RESULTS: A total of 2006 participants were enrolled from 74 clinics. PDR to NNRTIs was higher than to other drug classes (P < 0.0001), crossing the 10% threshold in the North-East, East, South-West and South-East. NNRTI PDR was higher in the South-West (P = 0.02), coinciding with the highest proportion of restarters in this sub-region (14%). We observed higher PDR prevalence to any drug in women compared with men (16.5% versus 12.2%, P = 0.04). After multivariable adjustment, higher NNRTI PDR remained significantly associated with previous antiretroviral exposure in the Centre-North, North-West, South-West and South-East [adjusted OR (aOR): 21, 5, 8 and 25, respectively; P < 0.05]. Genetic network analyses showed high assortativity by sub-region (P < 0.0001), with evidence of drug resistance mutation transmission within local clusters. CONCLUSIONS: Diversification of the public health response to HIV drug resistance based on sub-regional characteristics could be considered in Mexico. Higher NNRTI PDR levels were associated with poorer regions, suggesting opportunities to strengthen local HIV programmes. Price and licensing negotiations of drug regimens containing integrase inhibitors are warranted.

Evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Guatemala.

Different explanations exist on how HIV-1 subtype B spread in Central America, but the role of Guatemala, the Central American country with the highest number of people living with the virus, in this scenario is unknown. We investigated the evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 subtype B in Guatemala. A total of 1,047 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences, from newly diagnosed ART-naïve, HIV-infected Guatemalan subjects enrolled between 2011 and 2013 were combined with published subtype B sequences from other Central American countries (n = 2,101) and with reference sequences representative of the BPANDEMIC and BCAR lineages from the United States (n = 465), France (n = 344) and the Caribbean (n = 238). Estimates of evolutionary, demographic, and phylogeographic parameters were obtained from sequence data using maximum likelihood and Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The majority of Guatemalan sequences (98.9%) belonged to the BPANDEMIC clade, and 75.2% of these sequences branched within 10 monophyletic clades: four also included sequences from other Central American countries (BCAM-I to BCAM-IV) and six were mostly (>99%) composed by Guatemalan sequences (BGU clades). Most clades mainly comprised sequences from heterosexual individuals. Bayesian coalescent-based analyses suggested that BGU clades originated during the 1990s and 2000s, whereas BCAM clades originated between the late 1970s and mid 1980s. The major hub of dissemination of all BGU, and of BCAM-II, and BCAM-IV clades was traced to the Department of Guatemala, while the root location of BCAM-I and BCAM-III was traced to Honduras. Most Guatemalan clades experienced initial phases of exponential growth (0.23 and 3.6 year-1), followed by recent growth declines. Our observations suggest that the Guatemalan HIV-1 subtype B epidemic is driven by dissemination of multiple BPANDEMIC founder viral strains, some restricted to Guatemala and others widely disseminated in the Central American region, with Guatemala City identified as a major hub of viral dissemination. Our results also suggest the existence of different sub-epidemics within Guatemala for which different targeted prevention efforts might be needed.

Novel HLA class I associations with HIV-1 control in a unique genetically admixed population.

Associations between HLA class I alleles and HIV progression in populations exhibiting Amerindian and Caucasian genetic admixture remain understudied. Using univariable and multivariable analyses we evaluated HLA associations with five HIV clinical parameters in 3,213 HIV clade B-infected, ART-naïve individuals from Mexico and Central America (MEX/CAM cohort). A Canadian cohort (HOMER, n = 1622) was used for comparison. As expected, HLA allele frequencies in MEX/CAM and HOMER differed markedly. In MEX/CAM, 13 HLA-A, 24 HLA-B, and 14 HLA-C alleles were significantly associated with at least one clinical parameter. These included previously described protective (e.g. B*27:05, B*57:01/02/03 and B*58:01) and risk (e.g. B*35:02) alleles, as well as novel ones (e.g. A*03:01, B*15:39 and B*39:02 identified as protective, and A*68:03/05, B*15:30, B*35:12/14, B*39:01/06, B*39:05~C*07:02, and B*40:01~C*03:04 identified as risk). Interestingly, both protective (e.g. B*39:02) and risk (e.g. B*39:01/05/06) subtypes were identified within the common and genetically diverse HLA-B*39 allele group, characteristic to Amerindian populations. While HLA-HIV associations identified in MEX and CAM separately were similar overall (Spearman's rho = 0.33, p = 0.03), region-specific associations were also noted. The identification of both canonical and novel HLA/HIV associations provides a first step towards improved understanding of HIV immune control among unique and understudied Mestizo populations.

Weaker HLA Footprints on HIV in the Unique and Highly Genetically Admixed Host Population of Mexico.

HIV circumvents HLA class I-restricted CD8+ T-cell responses through selection of escape mutations that leave characteristic mutational "footprints," also known as HLA-associated polymorphisms (HAPs), on HIV sequences at the population level. While many HLA footprints are universal across HIV subtypes and human populations, others can be region specific as a result of the unique immunogenetic background of each host population. Using a published probabilistic phylogenetically informed model, we compared HAPs in HIV Gag and Pol (PR-RT) in 1,612 subtype B-infected, antiretroviral treatment-naive individuals from Mexico and 1,641 individuals from Canada/United States. A total of 252 HLA class I allele subtypes were represented, including 140 observed in both cohorts, 67 unique to Mexico, and 45 unique to Canada/United States. At the predefined statistical threshold of a q value of <0.2, 358 HAPs (201 in Gag, 157 in PR-RT) were identified in Mexico, while 905 (534 in Gag and 371 in PR-RT) were identified in Canada/United States. HAPs identified in Mexico included both canonical HLA-associated escape pathways and novel associations, in particular with HLA alleles enriched in Amerindian and mestizo populations. Remarkably, HLA footprints on HIV in Mexico were not only fewer but also, on average, significantly weaker than those in Canada/United States, although some exceptions were noted. Moreover, exploratory analyses suggested that the weaker HLA footprint on HIV in Mexico may be due, at least in part, to weaker and/or less reproducible HLA-mediated immune pressures on HIV in this population. The implications of these differences for natural and vaccine-induced anti-HIV immunity merit further investigation.IMPORTANCE HLA footprints on HIV identify viral regions under intense and consistent pressure by HLA-restricted immune responses and the common mutational pathways that HIV uses to evade them. In particular, HLA footprints can identify novel immunogenic regions and/or epitopes targeted by understudied HLA alleles; moreover, comparative analyses across immunogenetically distinct populations can illuminate the extent to which HIV immunogenic regions and escape pathways are shared versus population-specific pathways, information which can in turn inform the design of universal or geographically tailored HIV vaccines. We compared HLA-associated footprints on HIV in two immunogenetically distinct North American populations, those of Mexico and Canada/United States. We identify both shared and population-specific pathways of HIV adaptation but also make the surprising observation that HLA footprints on HIV in Mexico overall are fewer and weaker than those in Canada/United States, raising the possibility that HLA-restricted antiviral immune responses in Mexico are weaker, and/or escape pathways somewhat less consistent, than those in other populations.

HIV pretreatment drug resistance trends in three geographic areas of Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Pretreatment drug resistance (PDR) levels to NNRTI approaching 10% have recently been reported in Mexico. However, subnational differences may exist in PDR prevalence and transmission dynamics. OBJECTIVES: We longitudinally assessed HIV PDR in three geographic areas of Mexico. PATIENTS AND METHODS: HIV-infected, antiretroviral-naive individuals were recruited from 2008 to 2016, from the Central Metropolitan Zone (CMZ), Cancun and Tijuana (1194, 773 and 668 respectively). PDR was estimated using the Stanford HIVdb tool from plasma HIV pol sequences. RESULTS: A higher proportion of females, lower education and lower employment rate were observed in Tijuana, while a higher proportion of MSM was observed in the CMZ (P < 0.0001, all cases). For 2012-16, PDR was 13.4%, 8.9% and 11.2% in the CMZ, Tijuana and Cancun respectively. NNRTI PDR was highest in the three regions (8.7%, 4.8% and 8.1% respectively, P < 0.05); nevertheless, NNRTI PDR in Tijuana was lower than in the CMZ (P = 0.01). For 2008-16, we observed increasing efavirenz resistance trends in all regions (P < 0.05, all cases), reaching 11.8%, 6.1% and 8.3% respectively in 2016. Increasing efavirenz resistance was mostly associated with increasing K103N frequency (P = 0.007 CMZ, P = 0.03 Tijuana, not significant for Cancun). CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests different NNRTI PDR prevalence and transmission dynamics in three geographical areas of Mexico. Even when increasing trends in efavirenz resistance were observed in the three areas, our observations support that, in a large country such as Mexico, subnational surveillance and locally tailored interventions to address drug resistance may be a reasonable option.

High HPgV replication is associated with improved surrogate markers of HIV progression.

BACKGROUND: Human Pegivirus (HPgV) may have a beneficial effect on HIV disease progression in co-infected patients; however, the virologic characteristics of this infection are not well defined. In this study, we determined HPgV viremia prevalence in Mexico and provide new insights to understand HPgV infection and HPgV/HIV co-infection. METHODS: We analyzed and quantified 7,890 serum samples for HPgV viremia by One-Step RT-Real-Time PCR, 6,484 from healthy blood donors and 1,406 from HIV-infected patients. Data on HIV progression were obtained from patients' records. HPgV genotyping was performed in 445 samples by nested PCR of the 5'URT region. Finite Mixture Models were used to identify clustering patterns of HPgV viremia in blood donors and co-infected antiretroviral (ART)-naïve patients. RESULTS: HPgV was detected in 2.98% of blood donors and 33% of HIV patients, with a wide range of viral loads. The most prevalent genotypes were 3 (58.6%)and 2 (33.7%). HPgV viral loads from healthy blood donors and HPgV/HIV+ ART-naïve co-infected patients were clustered into two component distributions, low and high, with a cut-off point of 5.07log10 and 5.06log10, respectively. High HPgV viremia was associated with improved surrogate markers of HIV infection, independent of the estimated duration of HIV infection or HIV treatment. CONCLUSIONS: HPgV prevalence in Mexico was similar to that reported for other countries. The prevalent genotypes could be related to Mexico's geographic location and ethnicity, since genotype 2 is frequent in the United States and Europe and genotype 3 in Asia and Amerindian populations. HPgV viral load demonstrated two patterns of replication, low and high. The more pronounced beneficial response observed in co-infected patients with high HPgV viremia may explain discrepancies found between other studies. Mechanisms explaining high and low HPgV replication should be explored to determine whether the persistently elevated replication depends on host or viral factors.

Identification of major routes of HIV transmission throughout Mesoamerica.

BACKGROUND: Migration and travel are major drivers of the spread of infectious diseases. Geographic proximity and a common language facilitate travel and migration in Mesoamerica, which in turn could affect the spread of HIV in the region. METHODS: 6092 HIV-1 subtype B partial pol sequences sampled from unique antiretroviral treatment-naïve individuals from Mexico (40.7%), Guatemala (24.4%), Honduras (19%), Panama (8.2%), Nicaragua (5.5%), Belize (1.4%), and El Salvador (0.7%) between 2011 and 2016 were included. Phylogenetic and genetic network analyses were performed to infer putative relationships between HIV sequences. The demographic and geographic associations with clustering were analyzed and viral migration patterns were inferred using the Slatkin-Maddison approach on 100 iterations of random subsets of equal number of sequences per location. RESULTS: A total of 1685/6088 (27.7%) of sequences linked with at least one other sequence, forming 603 putative transmission clusters (range: 2-89 individuals). Clustering individuals were significantly more likely to be younger (median age 29 vs 33years, p<0.01) and men-who-have-sex-with-men (40.4% vs 30.3%, p<0.01). Of the 603 clusters, 30 (5%) included sequences from multiple countries with commonly observed linkages between Mexican and Honduran sequences. Eight of the 603 clusters included >10 individuals, including two comprised exclusively of Guatemalans (52 and 89 individuals). Phylogenetic and migration analyses suggested that the Central and Southern regions of Mexico along with Belize were major sources of HIV throughout the region (p<0.01) with genetic flow southward from Mexico to the other nations of Mesoamerica. We also found evidence of significant viral migration within Mexico. CONCLUSION: International clusters were infrequent, suggesting moderate migration between HIV epidemics of the different Mesoamerican countries. Nevertheless, we observed important sources of transnational HIV spread in the region, including Southern and Central Mexico and Belize.

HIV Drug Resistance in Antiretroviral Treatment-Naïve Individuals in the Largest Public Hospital in Nicaragua, 2011-2015.

BACKGROUND: Increasing HIV pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR) levels have been observed in regions with increasing antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage. However, data is lacking for several low/middle-income countries. We present the first PDR survey in Nicaragua since ART introduction in the country in 2003. METHODS: HIV-infected, ART-naïve Nicaraguan individuals were enrolled at Roberto Calderón Hospital, the largest national HIV referral center, from 2011 to 2015. HIV pol sequences were obtained at a WHO-accredited laboratory in Mexico by Sanger and next generation sequencing (NGS). PDR was assessed using the WHO surveillance drug resistance mutation (SDRM) list and the Stanford HIVdb tool. RESULTS: 283 individuals were enrolled in the study. The overall PDR prevalence based on the list of SDRMs was 13.4%. Using the Stanford HIVdb tool, overall PDR reached 19.4%; with both nucleoside and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI and NNRTI) PDR levels independently reaching moderate levels (6.7% and 11.3% respectively). Protease inhibitor PDR was low (2.8%). Using NGS with 2% threshold to detect SDRMs, PDR increased to 25.3%. K103N and M41L were the most frequent SDRMs and were present mostly in proportions >20% in each individual. A significant temporal increase in NNRTI PDR was observed (p = 0.0422), with no apparent trends for other drug classes. Importantly, PDR to zidovudine + lamivudine + efavirenz and tenofovir + emtricitabine + efavirenz, the most widely used first-line regimens in Nicaragua, reached 14.6% and 10.4% respectively in 2015. Of note, a higher proportion of females was observed among individuals with PDR compared to individuals without PDR (OR 14.2; 95% CI: 7.1-28.4; p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Overall PDR in the Nicaraguan cohort was high (19.4%), with a clear increasing temporal trend in NNRTI PDR. Current HIVDR to the most frequently used first-line ART regimens in Nicaragua reached levels >10%. These observations are worrisome and need to be evidenced to strengthen the national HIV program. Also, our observations warrant further nationally representative HIVDR surveillance studies and encourage other countries to perform national surveys. Cost-effectiveness studies are suggested to analyze the feasibility of implementation of baseline HIV genotyping as well as to review the choice of first-line ART regimens in Nicaragua.