Caring Letters Sent by a Clinician or Peer to At-Risk Veterans: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Caring letters is an evidence-based suicide prevention intervention in acute care settings, but its outcomes among individuals who contact a national crisis line have not previously been evaluated. Objective: To examine the outcomes of the Veterans Crisis Line (VCL) caring letters intervention and determine whether there are differences in outcomes by signatory. Design, Setting, and Participants: This parallel randomized clinical trial compared signatories of caring letters and used an observational design to compare no receipt of caring letters with any caring letters receipt. Participants included veterans who contacted the VCL. Enrollment occurred between June 11, 2020, and June 10, 2021, with 1 year of follow-up. Analyses were completed between July 2022 and August 2023. Intervention: Veterans were randomized to receive 9 caring letters for 1 year from either a clinician or peer veteran signatory. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome measure was suicide attempt incidence in the 12 months following the index VCL contact. Incidence of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) inpatient, outpatient, and emergency health care use were secondary outcomes. All-cause mortality was an exploratory outcome. Wilcoxon rank-sum tests and χ2 tests were used to assess the differences in outcomes among the treatment and comparison groups. Results: A total of 102 709 veterans (86 942 males [84.65%]; 15 737 females [15.32%]; mean [SD] age, 53.82 [17.35] years) contacted the VCL and were randomized. No association was found among signatory and suicide attempts, secondary outcomes, or all-cause mortality. In the analysis of any receipt of caring letters, there was no evidence of an association between caring letters receipt and suicide attempt incidence. Caring letters receipt was associated with increased VHA health care use (any outpatient: hazard ratio [HR], 1.10; 95% CI, 1.08-1.13; outpatient mental health: HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.17-1.22; any inpatient: HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.08-1.18; inpatient mental health: HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.07-1.21). Caring letters receipt was not associated with all-cause mortality. Conclusions and Relevance: Among VHA patients who contacted the VCL, caring letters were not associated with suicide attempts, but were associated with a higher probability of health care use. No differences in outcomes were identified by signatory. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN27551361.

Veterans Crisis Line Contacts After the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline Rollout.

INTRODUCTION: This study identifies changes in Veterans Crisis Line (VCL) contact volume following the 988 National Suicide Prevention Hotline rollout, and examines changes in contact volume for self-identified Veterans. METHODS: VCL's Medora database was analyzed from July 2018 to June 2023, fitting linear interrupted time series models to forecast trends after the July 2022 rollout of the 988 Suicide Prevention Hotline. Data analysis was performed from 2023 to 2024. RESULTS: After the 988 rollout, average monthly VCL contact volume increased by 5,388 contacts (8.2%). The number of contacts self-identifying as Veterans increased by 2,739 (6.2%), while the percentage of self-identifying Veteran contacts who could be linked to VHA records declined by 3.8%. CONCLUSIONS: The 988 rollout was associated with increased VCL contact volume and broad changes in the profile of users. This underscores the importance of crisis services in adapting to dynamic user needs and highlights the potential of national suicide prevention initiatives to reach diverse populations.

The effects of the Veterans Health Administration's Referral Coordination Initiative on referral patterns and waiting times for specialty care.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the Veterans Health Administration's (VA) 2019 Referral Coordination Initiative (RCI) was associated with changes in the proportion of VA specialty referrals completed by community-based care (CC) providers and mean appointment waiting times for VA and CC providers. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTINGS: Monthly facility level VA data for 3,097,366 specialty care referrals for eight high-volume specialties (cardiology, dermatology, gastroenterology, neurology, ophthalmology, orthopedics, physical therapy, and podiatry) from October 1, 2019 to May 30, 2022. STUDY DESIGN: We employed a staggered difference-in-differences approach to evaluate RCI's effects on referral patterns and wait times. Our unit of analysis was facility-month. We dichotomized facilities into high and low RCI use based on the proportion of total referrals for a specialty. We stratified our analysis by specialty and the staffing model that high RCI users adopted: centralized, decentralized, and hybrid. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Administrative data on referrals and waiting times were extracted from the VA's corporate data warehouse. Data on staffing models were provided by the VA's Office of Integrated Veteran Care. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We did not reject the null hypotheses that high RCI use do not change CC referral rates or waiting times in any of the care settings for most specialties. For example, high RCI use for physical therapy-the highest volume specialty studied-was associated with -0.054 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.114 to 0.006) and 2.0 days (95% CI: -4.8 to 8.8) change in CC referral rate and waiting time at CC providers, respectively, among centralized staffing model adopters. CONCLUSIONS: In the initial years of the RCI program, RCI does not have a measurable effect on waiting times or CC referral rates. Our findings do not support concerns that RCI might be impeding Veterans' access to CC providers. Future evaluations should examine whether RCI facilitates Veterans' ability to receive care in their preferred setting.

Potential inequities in access to in-person SHIP counseling services.

OBJECTIVES: Counseling and education on Medicare coverage options are available through the federal State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP), but little is known about the population that SHIP reaches. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: Using a novel data source on SHIP counseling site locations, we characterized the availability of in-person SHIP counseling by zip code tabulation area (ZCTA) and used linear regression and t tests to evaluate whether SHIP counseling sites are disproportionately located in higher-income communities. RESULTS: Our sample included 1511 SHIP counseling sites. More than half (63%) of the localities in our sample have a SHIP site within the ZCTA or county. Twenty-four percent do not have a SHIP site within the county but have one in an adjacent county. The remaining 13% do not have a nearby SHIP site. There is a disproportionate number of individuals eligible for Medicare in localities without a SHIP site. Moreover, the population living in areas without in-person SHIP sites is more likely to have low income and fewer years of education than the population living in areas with a SHIP site. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that there are areas where in-person SHIP service expansion or other additional navigation support may be warranted.

Measuring restrictiveness of Medicare Advantage networks: A claims-based approach.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a measure of provider network restrictiveness in the Medicare Advantage (MA) population. DATA SOURCES: Prescription drug event data and beneficiary information for Part D enrollees from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, along with prescriber identifiers; geographic variables from the Area Health Resources Files. STUDY DESIGN: A prediction model was used to predict the unique number of primary care providers that would have been seen by MA beneficiaries absent network restrictions. The model was trained and validated on Traditional Medicare (TM) beneficiaries. A pseudo-Poisson and a random forest model were evaluated. An observed-to-expected (O/E) ratio was calculated as the number of unique providers seen by MA beneficiaries divided by the number expected based the TM prediction model. Multivariable linear models were used to assess the relationship between network restrictiveness and plan and market factors. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Prescription drug event data were obtained for a 20% random sample of beneficiaries enrolled in prescription drug coverage from 2011 to 2017. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Health Maintenance Organization plans were more restrictive (O/E = 55.5%; 95% CI 55.3%-55.7%) than Health Maintenance Organization-Point of Service plans (67.2%; 95% CI 66.7%-67.8%) or Preferred Provider Organization plans (74.7%; 95% CI 74.3%-75.1%), and rural areas had more restrictive networks (31.6%; 95% CI 29.0%-34.2%) than metropolitan areas (61.5%; 95% CI 61.3%-61.7%). Multivariable results confirmed these findings, and also indicated that increased provider supply was associated with less restrictive networks. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a means of estimating provider network restrictiveness in MA from claims data. Our results validate the approach, providing confidence for wider application (e.g., for other markets and specialties) and use for regulation.

Differences in adverse outcomes across race and ethnicity among Veterans with similar predicted risks of an overdose or suicide-related event.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the degree to which differences in incidence of mortality and serious adverse events exist across patient race and ethnicity among Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients receiving outpatient opioid prescriptions and who have similar predicted risks of adverse outcomes. Patients were assigned scores via the VHA Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM), a model used to predict the risk of experiencing overdose- or suicide-related health care events or death. Individuals with the highest STORM risk scores are targeted for case review. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of high-risk veterans who received an outpatient prescription opioid between 4/2018-3/2019. SETTING: All VHA medical centers. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 84 473 patients whose estimated risk scores were between 0.0420 and 0.0609, the risk scores associated with the top 5%-10% of risk in the STORM development sample. METHODS: We examined the expected probability of mortality and serious adverse events (SAEs; overdose or suicide-related events) given a patient's risk score and race. RESULTS: Given a similar risk score, Black patients were less likely than White patients to have a recorded SAE within 6 months of risk score calculation. Black, Hispanic, and Asian patients were less likely than White patients with similar risk scores to die within 6 months of risk score calculation. Some of the mortality differences were driven by age differences in the composition of racial and ethnic groups in our sample. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that relying on the STORM model to identify patients who may benefit from an interdisciplinary case review may identify patients with clinically meaningful differences in outcome risk across race and ethnicity.

Impact of Mandated Case Review Policy on Opioid Discontinuation and Mortality Among High-Risk Long-Term Opioid Therapy Patients: The STORM Stepped-Wedge Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Although long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) has its own risks, opioid discontinuation could pose harm for high-risk Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients receiving LTOT. There is limited information on the impact of a mandate requiring providers to perform case reviews on high-risk patients with an active opioid prescription (ie, mandated case review policy) on opioid discontinuation and mortality. METHODS: Our study is a secondary data analysis of a 23-month stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial between April 2018 and March 2020. The study included 10 685 LTOT patients with a predicted risk of a serious adverse event between the top 1% to 5% nationally who entered the risk range between 4/18/2018 and 11/9/2019. We examined whether the mandated case review policy had an impact on opioid discontinuation and mortality for the patients. RESULTS: Among 10 685 LTOT patients (88.2% male; mean [SD] age, 61.1 [11.7] years), 29.1% experienced discontinuation and the mortality rate was 9.5%. Patients under mandated case review had a decreased risk of opioid discontinuation (average marginal effect [AME], -11.16 [95% CI, -15.30 to -7.01] percentage points) and all-cause mortality (AME, -3.31 [95% CI, -5.63 to -1.00] percentage points), relative to patients who were not under the mandate. CONCLUSIONS: The VHA mandated case review policy was associated with lower probability of discontinuation and all-cause mortality for high-risk patients receiving LTOT. Interventions that maintain care engagement while optimizing pain management for high-risk patients may be beneficial for minimizing mortality and other risks associated with discontinuation.

Growth of community-based immunotherapy treatment in the Veterans Health Administration.

BACKGROUND: The MISSION and CHOICE Acts expanded the Veterans Health Administration's (VA) capacity to purchase immunotherapy services for VA patients from community-based providers. Our objective was to identify predictors of community-based immunotherapy treatment, and assess differences in cost and utilization across community treatment settings METHODS: We examined claims for 21,257 patients who started immunotherapy treatment between 2015 and 2020. We assessed growth in VA community-based immunotherapy care, predictors of community-based immunotherapy treatment using multivariable logistic regression based on patients' sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. We compared utilization and costs among those who received community-based immunotherapy services in hospital outpatient departments (HOPDs) versus physician office settings (POs). RESULTS: The proportion of community-based immunotherapy in the VA increased from 5.3% in 2015 to 32.1% in 2020, with total annual costs of immunotherapy growing from $6.1 million to $187 million. Older, married, and rural patients and those with more comorbidities were more likely than younger, single, or urban patients to be treated in the community. Black patients were more likely to be treated in the VA. Respiratory Cancer was the most common cancer type in both settings. Among community immunotherapy patients, we observed no meaningful differences in the number of units administered, the unit drug costs, or the cost per immunotherapy visit between POs and HOPDs. CONCLUSION: Drug costs did not differ widely across HOPDs and POs among VA patients who receive community-based immunotherapy.

Use of High-Risk Medications Among Older Adults Enrolled in Medicare Advantage Plans vs Traditional Medicare.

Importance: Limiting the use of high-risk medications (HRMs) among older adults is a national priority to provide a high quality of care for older beneficiaries of both Medicare Advantage and traditional fee-for-service Medicare Part D plans. Objective: To evaluate the differences in the rate of HRM prescription fills among beneficiaries of traditional Medicare vs Medicare Advantage Part D plans and to examine the extent to which these differences change over time and the patient-level factors associated with higher rates of HRMs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a 20% sample of Medicare Part D data on filled drug prescriptions from 2013 to 2017 and a 40% sample from 2018. The sample comprised Medicare beneficiaries aged 66 years or older who were enrolled in Medicare Advantage or traditional Medicare Part D plans. Data were analyzed between April 1, 2022, and April 15, 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the number of unique HRMs prescribed to older Medicare beneficiaries per 1000 beneficiaries. Linear regression models were used to model the primary outcome, adjusting for patient characteristics and county characteristics and including hospital referral region fixed effects. Results: The sample included 5 595 361 unique Medicare Advantage beneficiaries who were propensity score-matched on a year-by-year basis to 6 578 126 unique traditional Medicare beneficiaries between 2013 and 2018, resulting in 13 704 348 matched pairs of beneficiary-years. The traditional Medicare vs Medicare Advantage cohorts were similar in age (mean [SD] age, 75.65 [7.53] years vs 75.60 [7.38] years), proportion of males (8 127 261 [59.3%] vs 8 137 834 [59.4%]; standardized mean difference [SMD] = 0.002), and predominant race and ethnicity (77.1% vs 77.4% non-Hispanic White; SMD = 0.05). On average in 2013, Medicare Advantage beneficiaries filled 135.1 (95% CI, 128.4-142.6) unique HRMs per 1000 beneficiaries compared with 165.6 (95% CI, 158.1-172.3) HRMs per 1000 beneficiaries for traditional Medicare. In 2018, the rate of HRMs had decreased to 41.5 (95% CI, 38.2-44.2) HRMs per 1000 beneficiaries in Medicare Advantage and to 56.9 (95% CI, 54.1-60.1) HRMs per 1000 beneficiaries in traditional Medicare. Across the study period, Medicare Advantage beneficiaries received 24.3 (95% CI, 20.2-28.3) fewer HRMs per 1000 beneficiaries per year compared with traditional Medicare beneficiaries. Female, American Indian or Alaska Native, and White populations were more likely to receive HRMs than other groups. Conclusion and Relevance: Results of this study showed that HRM rates were consistently lower among Medicare Advantage than traditional Medicare beneficiaries. Higher use of HRMs among female, American Indian or Alaska Native, and White populations is a concerning disparity that requires further attention.

Qualitative Evaluation of a Caring Letters Suicide Prevention Intervention for the Veterans Crisis Line.

OBJECTIVE: Suicide is a leading cause of death in the United States. This has prompted the U.S. surgeon general to issue a report describing actionable items to reduce suicide rates, including a recommendation to increase the use of the caring letters intervention. This intervention involves mailing brief, nondemanding messages of care. As part of the Department of Veterans Affairs' (VA's) efforts to reduce suicide rates among veterans, a caring letters project was developed for veterans who contact the Veterans Crisis Line (VCL). This article describes the results of qualitative interviews conducted to better understand the experiences of veterans who received caring letters. METHODS: Beginning in 2020, all identifiable veterans who used Veterans Health Administration services and contacted the VCL received nine letters over 1 year, along with a list of mental health resources. Semistructured interviews (N=23) were conducted, and content analysis was used to identify veterans' perspectives and suggestions for improving the intervention. RESULTS: Sixteen men and seven women participated (mean age=53 years). Feedback varied, with most participants reporting that receiving caring letters had a positive impact and others noting aspects that could be improved to enhance the intervention's caring intent. Some also reported that the letters helped them engage with community resources and made them more likely to seek VA care. CONCLUSIONS: The caring letters intervention, received after contact with the VCL, was well received by participants. They described feeling appreciated, cared for, encouraged, and connected. The results of this study will inform future evaluation examining veteran outcomes.

The heterogeneity of the homebound: A latent class analysis of a national sample of homebound older adults.

BACKGROUND: Homebound status is a final common pathway for people with a variety of diseases and conditions. There are 7 million homebound older adults in the United States. Despite concerns regarding their high healthcare costs and utilization and limited access to care, the unique subsets within the homebound population are understudied. Better understanding of distinct homebound groups may enable more targeted and tailored approaches to care delivery. Therefore, in a nationally representative sample of homebound older adults we used latent class analysis (LCA) to examine distinct homebound subgroups based on clinical and sociodemographic characteristics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) 2011-2019, we identified 901 newly homebound persons (defined as never/rarely leaving home or leaving home only with assistance and/or difficulty). Sociodemographic, caregiving context, health and function, and geographic covariates were derived from NHATS via self-report. LCA was used to identify the existence of distinct subgroups within the homebound population. Indices of model fit were compared for models testing 1-5 latent classes. Association between latent class membership and 1 year mortality was examined using a logistic regression. RESULTS: We identified four classes of homebound individuals differentiated by their health, function, sociodemographic characteristics, and caregiving context: (i) Resource constrained (n = 264); (ii) Multimorbid/high symptom burden (n = 216); (iii) Dementia/functionally impaired (n = 307); (iv) Older/assisted living (n = 114). One year mortality was highest among the older/assisted living subgroup (32.4%) and lowest among the resource constrained (8.2%). CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies subgroups of homebound older adults characterized by distinct sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. These findings will support policymakers, payers, and providers in targeting and tailoring care to the needs of this growing population.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of palliative care in natural experiments: a systematic review.

CONTEXT: Investigators in palliative care rely heavily on routinely collected data, which carry risk of unobserved confounding and selection bias. 'Natural experiments' offer opportunities to generate credible causal treatment effect estimates from observational data. OBJECTIVES: We aimed first to review studies that employed 'natural experiments' to evaluate palliative care, and second to consider implications for expanding use of these methods. METHODS: We searched systematically seven databases to identify studies using 'natural experiments' to evaluate palliative care's effect on outcomes and costs. We searched three grey literature repositories, and hand-searched journals and prior systematic reviews. We assessed reporting using the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology checklist and a bespoke methodological quality tool, using two reviewers at each stage. We combined results in a narrative synthesis. RESULTS: We included 17 studies, which evaluated a wide range of interventions and populations. Seven studies employed a difference-in-differences design; five each used instrumental variables and interrupted time series analysis. Outcomes of interest related mostly to healthcare use. Reporting quality was variable. Most studies reported lower costs and improved outcomes associated with palliative care, but a third of utilisation and place of death evaluations found no effect. CONCLUSION: Among the large number of observational studies in palliative care, a small minority have employed causal mechanisms. High-volume routine data collection, the expansion of palliative care services worldwide and recent methodological advances offer potential for increased use of 'natural experiments'. Such studies would improve the quality of the evidence base.

Community care emergency room use and specialty care leakage from Veterans Health Administration hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Care leakage from health systems can affect quality and cost of health care delivery. Identifying modifiable predictors of care leakage may help health systems avoid adverse consequences. Out-of-system emergency department (ED) use may be one modifiable cause of care leakage. Our objective was to investigate the relationship between out-of-system ED use and subsequent specialty care leakage. METHODS: We used the Veterans Health Administration's (VA) Corporate Data Warehouse data from January 2021 to July 2021. A total of 330,547 patients who had at least one ED visit (in-house or community care [CC]) in the index period (January 2021-March 2021) were included. Outcomes were the proportions of specialty care visits in the community within 30, 60, 90, and 120 days from the index ED visit. Instrumental-variables regressions, using VA ED physician capacity as an instrument for Veterans' CC ED use, were utilized to estimate the proportions of subsequent specialty care visits in the community. Estimates were adjusted for patient and facility characteristics. RESULTS: A CC ED visit was associated with increases in the proportions of specialty care visits in the community within 30, 60, 90, and 120 days from index visit. Within 30 days from index visit, CC ED patients were estimated to have a 45-percentage-point (pp; 95% confidence interval [CI], 43-47 pp) higher proportion of CC specialty care visits than patients with an in-house ED visit (p < 0.001). We observed similar, though slightly attenuated, results over long time periods since the index visit. CONCLUSIONS: Veterans who have a CC ED visit have a greater proportion of subsequent specialty care visits in CC hospitals and clinics than Veterans with a VA ED visit. This relationship persists when we examine Veterans whose decision to go to a CC ED is influenced by VA ED physician capacity rather than general preferences for CC.

Grading Evidence to Support Legislative and Budget Proposals-Veterans Health Administration's Key to Implementing the Evidence Act.

OBJECTIVES: The Foundations for Evidence-Based Policymaking Act of 2018 requires cabinet-level agencies to use evidence to justify and support budget and policy making. As investigators from the Quality Enhancement Research Initiative (QUERI) program, we were tasked with assisting Veterans Health Administration (VHA) leadership with the implementation of the Evidence-Based Policymaking Act of 2018. Through meetings with stakeholders, we identified a gap in the review process for legislative and budget proposals; no systematic process existed to evaluate the supporting evidence base for proposals. METHODS: Here, we describe the development, refinement, and use of a checklist to assess the strength of evidence included in VHA legislative and budget proposals for changes to care delivery; clinical, research, and administrative operations; and staffing and workforce issues. RESULTS: The evidence assessment checklist is now part of the regular review process for VHA legislative and budget proposals. It is also being adapted for use elsewhere within the Department of Veterans Affairs. The checklist has provided a framework for briefings and training on best practices for using evidence to guide policy and budget decisions. CONCLUSION: Including evidence reviews in the legislative and budget proposal prioritization process may be an effective institutional arrangement to promote the use of evidence to inform high-level health policy decisions and to build a "culture of evidence" within the government.

Effect of a Veterans Health Administration mandate to case review patients with opioid prescriptions on mortality among patients with opioid use disorder: a secondary analysis of the STORM randomized control trial.

AIMS: The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) implemented the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM) to reduce the risk of serious adverse events (SAE) among patients with opioid analgesic prescriptions. VHA facilities were mandated to case review patients identified as high risk by STORM. The aim of this study was to measure the effect of this mandate on all-cause mortality and SAEs among VHA patients newly diagnosed with opioid use disorder (OUD). DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a stepped-wedged cluster randomized controlled trial conducted at all 140 VHA facilities, with facility as the unit of randomization, from 2018 to 2020. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: United States VHA facilities were randomized to case review the top 1 or 5% of high-risk patients prescribed opioid analgesics identified by STORM. A total of 28 251 patients were diagnosed with OUD during the trial and were considered control or treatment depending on the status of the facility where they received their OUD diagnosis. Post-hoc analyses among patients who had at least one opioid analgesic prescription in the 90 days prior to diagnosis were conducted and were then stratified by receipt of a prescription in the 90 days following diagnosis to assess the sensitivity of results to opioid discontinuation. MEASUREMENTS: All-cause mortality and opioid-related, drug-related, suicide-related and other SAEs within 90 days of OUD diagnosis. FINDINGS: Mandated case review increased the odds of 90-day mortality [odds ratio (OR) = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06, 2.87], but did not significantly change the odds of SAEs. Among patients who received an opioid prescription prior to but not after OUD diagnosis, the odds of all-cause mortality within 90 days was 5.87 (95% CI = 1.85, 18.58) relative to control patients. CONCLUSIONS: Veterans Health Administration patients newly diagnosed with opioid use disorder experienced increased all-cause mortality following expansion of a case review mandate for high-risk patients prescribed opioids.

What is the role of selection bias in quality comparisons between the Veterans Health Administration and community care? Example of elective hernia surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between community care (CC) treatment and a postoperative surgical complication in elective hernia surgery among Veterans using multiple approaches to control for potential selection bias. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING: Veterans Health Administration (VHA) data sources included Corporate Data Warehouse (VHA encounters and patient data), the Program Integrity Tool and Fee tables (CC encounters), the Planning Systems Support Group (geographic information), and the Paid file (VHA primary care providers). STUDY DESIGN: Prior works suggest patient outcomes are better in VHA than in CC settings; however, these studies may not have appropriately accounted for the selection of higher-risk cases into CC. We estimated (1) a naïve logistic regression model to calculate the effect of CC setting on the probability of a complication, controlling for facility fixed effects and patient and procedure characteristics, and (2) a 2-stage model using the hernia patient's primary care provider's 1-year prior CC referral rate as the instrument. DATA COLLECTION: We identified patients residing ≤40 miles from a VHA surgical facility with elective VHA or CC hernia surgery from 2018 to 2019. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Of 7991 hernia surgeries, 772 (9.7%) were in CC. The overall complication rate was 4.2%; 286/7219 (4.0%) among VHA surgeries versus 51/5772 (6.6%, p < 0.05) in CC. We observed a 2.8 percentage point increase in the probability of postoperative complication given CC surgery (95% confidence interval: 0.7, 4.8) in the naïve model. After accounting for the VHA provider's historical rate of CC referral, we no longer observed a relationship between surgery setting and risk of postoperative complication. CONCLUSIONS: After accounting for the selection of higher-risk patients to CC settings, we found no difference in hernia surgery postoperative complications between CC and VHA. Future VHA and non-VHA comparisons should account for unobserved as well as observed differences in patients seen in each setting.

Patterns of Healthcare Utilization and Spending Among Homebound Older Adults in the USA: an Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Homebound older adults have complex social, medical, and financial needs, but little is known about their healthcare utilization and spending. OBJECTIVE: To characterize healthcare utilization and spending among homebound older adults. DESIGN: Cohort study using National Health and Aging Trends Study data linked to Medicare Fee-for-Service (FFS) claims data. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 70 years and older with Medicare FFS coverage (n = 6468). MAIN MEASURES: In a person-year analysis, survey-weighted rates and adjusted marginal differences in inpatient, outpatient, and emergency department utilization and spending 12 months post-interview were calculated by homebound status, defined as reporting never or rarely (no more than 1 day/week) leaving home in the last month. KEY RESULTS: Compared to the non-homebound, homebound observations had lower annual unadjusted rates of accessing primary care (60.9% vs 71.9%, p < 0.001) and specialist care (61.0% vs 74.9%, p < 0.001) and higher annual rates of emergency department use (54.0% vs 32.6%, p < 0.001) and hospitalization (39.8% vs 19.8%, p < 0.001). Total annual Medicare spending was $11,346 higher among the homebound compared to the non-homebound (p < 0.001). In a single year analysis (2015), homebound older adults accounted for 11.0% of Medicare spending among those over 70 despite making up only 5.7% of this population. 13.6% of the homebound were in the 95th percentile or above of Medicare spending in 2015. In models adjusting for demographic, clinical, and geographic characteristics, homebound status was associated with a decreased likelihood of having an annual primary care or specialist visit and $2226 additional total annual Medicare spending. CONCLUSIONS: Homebound older adults use more hospital-based care and less outpatient care than the non-homebound, contributing to higher levels of overall Medicare spending.

Effect of a Predictive Analytics-Targeted Program in Patients on Opioids: a Stepped-Wedge Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Risk of overdose, suicide, and other adverse outcomes are elevated among sub-populations prescribed opioid analgesics. To address this, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) developed the Stratification Tool for Opioid Risk Mitigation (STORM)-a provider-facing dashboard that utilizes predictive analytics to stratify patients prescribed opioids based on risk for overdose/suicide. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the case review mandate on serious adverse events (SAEs) and all-cause mortality among high-risk Veterans. DESIGN: A 23-month stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial in all 140 VHA medical centers between 2018 and 2020. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 44,042 patients actively prescribed opioid analgesics with high STORM risk scores (i.e., percentiles 1% to 5%) for an overdose or suicide-related event. INTERVENTION: A mandate requiring providers to perform case reviews on opioid analgesic-prescribed patients at high risk of overdose/suicide. MAIN MEASURES: Nine serious adverse events (SAEs), case review completion, number of risk mitigation strategies, and all-cause mortality. KEY RESULTS: Mandated review inclusion was associated with a significant decrease in all-cause mortality within 4 months of inclusion (OR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.65-0.94). There was no detectable effect on SAEs. Stepped-wedge analyses found that mandated review patients were five times more likely to receive a case review than non-mandated patients with similar risk (OR: 5.1; 95% CI: 3.64-7.23) and received more risk mitigation strategies than non-mandated patients (0.498; CI: 0.39-0.61). CONCLUSIONS: Among VHA patients prescribed opioid analgesics, identifying high risk patients and mandating they receive an interdisciplinary case review was associated with a decrease in all-cause mortality. Results suggest that providers can leverage predictive analytic-targeted population health approaches and interdisciplinary collaboration to improve patient outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN16012111.

Local Supply Of Postdischarge Care Options Tied To Hospital Readmission Rates.

The extent to which patients' risk for readmission after a hospitalization is influenced by local availability of postdischarge care options is not currently known. We used national, hospital-level data to assess whether the supply of postdischarge care options in hospitals' catchment areas was associated with readmission rates for Medicare patients after hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, or pneumonia. Overall, readmission rates were negatively associated with per capita supply of primary care physicians (-0.16 percentage points per standard deviation) and licensed nursing home beds (-0.09 percentage points per standard deviation). In contrast, readmission rates were positively associated with per capita supply of nurse practitioners (0.09 percentage points per standard deviation). Our results suggest potential modifications to the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program to account for local health system characteristics when assigning penalties to hospitals.