The role of models in the covid-19 pandemic.

Mathematical and statistical models have played an important role in the analysis of data from COVID-19. They are important for tracking the progress of the pandemic, for understanding its spread in the population, and perhaps most significantly for forecasting the future course of the pandemic and evaluating potential policy options. This article describes the types of models that were used by research teams in Israel, presents their assumptions and basic elements, and illustrates how they were used, and how they influenced decisions. The article grew out of a "modelists' dialog" organized by the Israel National Institute for Health Policy Research with participation from some of the leaders in the local modeling effort.

Erratum: Three-Nucleon Low-Energy Constants from the Consistency of Interactions and Currents in Chiral Effective Field Theory [Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 102502 (2009)].

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.103.102502.

Structure of physical crystalline membranes within the self-consistent screening approximation.

The anomalous exponents governing the long-wavelength behavior of the flat phase of physical crystalline membranes are calculated within a self-consistent screening approximation (SCSA) applied to second order expansion in 1/dC ( dC is the codimension), extending the seminal work of Le Doussal and Radzihovsky [Phys. Rev. Lett. 69, 1209 (1992)]. In particular, the bending rigidity is found to harden algebraically in the long-wavelength limit with an exponent eta=0.789... , which is used to extract the elasticity softening exponent eta(u)=0.422... , and the roughness exponent zeta=0.605... . The scaling relation eta(u)=2-2eta is proven to hold to all orders in SCSA. Further, applying the SCSA to an expansion in 1/dC , is found to be essential, as no solution to the self-consistent equations is found in a two-bubble level, which is the naive second-order expansion. Surprisingly, even though the expansion parameter for physical membrane is 1/dC=1 , the SCSA applied to second-order expansion deviates only slightly from the first order, increasing zeta by mere 0.016. This supports the high quality of the SCSA for physical crystalline membranes, as well as improves the comparison to experiments and numerical simulations of these systems. The prediction of SCSA applied to first order expansion for the Poisson ratio is shown to be exact to all orders.

Three-nucleon low-energy constants from the consistency of interactions and currents in chiral effective field theory.

The chiral low-energy constants c(D) and c(E) are constrained by means of accurate ab initio calculations of the A = 3 binding energies and, for the first time, of the triton beta decay. We demonstrate that these low-energy observables allow a robust determination of the two undetermined constants, a result of the surprising fact that the determination of c(D) depends weakly on the short-range correlations in the wave functions. These two- plus three-nucleon interactions, originating in chiral effective field theory and constrained by properties of the A = 2 system and the present determination of c(D) and c(E), are successful in predicting properties of the A = 3 and 4 systems.

Low-energy inelastic neutrino reactions on 4He.

The inelastic scattering of neutrino off 4He is calculated microscopically at energies typical for core-collapse supernova environment. The calculation is carried out with the Argonne V18 nucleon-nucleon potential and the Urbana IX three-nucleon force. Full final state interaction is included via the Lorentz integral transform method. The contribution of axial meson exchange currents to the cross sections is taken into account from effective field theory of nucleons and pions to order O(Q3).

Photoabsorption on 4He with a realistic nuclear force.

The 4He total photoabsorption cross section is calculated with the realistic nucleon-nucleon potential Argonne V18 and the three-nucleon force (3NF) Urbana IX. Final state interaction is included rigorously via the Lorentz integral transform method. A rather pronounced giant resonance with peak cross sections of 3.0 (3.2) mb is obtained with (without) the 3NF. Above 50 MeV strong 3NF effects, up to 35%, are present. Good agreement with experiment is found close to threshold. A comparison in the giant resonance region is inconclusive, since data do not show a unique picture.